Detection of Optimal Models in Parameter Space with Support Vector Machines

The paper proposes an approach aimed at detecting optimal model parameter combinations to achieve the most representative description of uncertainty in the model performance. A classification problem is posed to find the regions of good fitting models according to the values of a cost function. Support Vector Machine (SVM) classification in the parameter space is applied to decide if a forward model simulation is to be computed for a particular generated model. SVM is particularly designed to tackle classification problems in high-dimensional space in a non-parametric and non-linear way. SVM decision boundaries determine the regions that are subject to the largest uncertainty in the cost function classification, and, therefore, provide guidelines for further iterative exploration of the model space. The proposed approach is illustrated by a synthetic example of fluid flow through porous media, which features highly variable response due to the parameter values' combination.

Obésite, troubles alimentaires et groupe de parole à l'adolescence [Obesity, eating disorders and the group approach for adolescents].

About a third of obese adolescents also suffer from some kind of eating disorders which have to be recognized and included in the therapeutic frame. Besides this co-morbidity, most of these patients also require a psychological support. The group approach represents an adequate response to these problems, in providing a space for exchanges and an opportunity for mutual support. The group approach may even prove more beneficial than an individual treatment. Involving the parents too reinforces the improvement that adolescents can get from their participation in such groups.

Catholic Confession of Sins as Third-Party Moral Enforcement

Catholicism has built up a legalistic religion based on two pillars: salvation by works and 'auricular' confession of sins to a priest with judicial functions. Since the Reformation, many consider auricular confession inferior to less institutional and more individual conceptions of faith. This article analyzes how all these historical solutions trade off specialization advantages against exchange costs to produce moral enforcement. After showing the behavioral foundations of confession and the adaptiveness of its historical evolution, it tests hypotheses on its efficacy, exploitation and opportunity cost. Econometric evidence supports the efficacy but not the exploitative character of Catholic confession. It also explains its secular decline as a consequence of two factors. First, the rise in education, which makes moral self-enforcement less costly. Second, the productivity gap suffered by confession, given its necessarily interpersonal nature.

Greenstick fractures of the middle third of the forearm. A prospective multi-centre study.

BACKGROUND: Greenstick fractures suffered during growth have a high risk for refracture and posttraumatic deformity, particularly at the forearm diaphysis. The use of a preemptive completion of the fracture by manipulation of the concave cortex is controversial and data supporting this approach are few. AIM: Aim of this study was to determine the factors which predispose to refracture and deformities, and to define therapeutic strategies. METHODS: We prospectively gathered clinical and radiographic data over a period of one year on greenstick fractures of the middle third of the forearm in children as part of a multi-centre study. Endpoint was a follow-up visit at one year. Radiographic deformity, state of consolidation at resumption of physical activities and refracture rate were analysed statistically (ANOVA, Student's t-test and Pearson's chi-square test) with regard to patient age, gender, fracture type, therapy and time in plaster. RESULTS: We collected the data of 103 patients (63 boys, 40 girls), average age 6.6 years (1.3-14.5 years), the vast majority of whom had a combined greenstick fracture of the radius and ulna. 6.7% of the patients sustained a refracture within 49 days (29-76) after plaster removal. They were significantly older (p=0.017) with a significantly higher incidence of manual completion of the fracture with radiographic signs of partial consolidation (p=0.025). Residual deformities were significantly smaller after completion of the fracture compared to reduction without completion (p=0.019) or plaster fixation alone (p<0.005). CONCLUSIONS: Completion of a greenstick fracture does not prevent refracture. Nevertheless, it diminishes the extent of secondary deformities in cases where the primary angulation exceeds the remodelling capacity. Prevention of refracture should include a routine radiographic follow-up 4-6 weeks after injury with continuation of plaster fixation in cases of partial consolidation.

Simulation in Third Cycle English Language Teaching

Many researchers have suggested simulation as a powerful tool to transpose the normal classroom into an authentic setting where language skills can be performed under more realistic conditions. This paper will outline the benefits of simulation in the classroom, provide additional topics to Third Cycle English Language National Syllabus to be discussed / simulated in the classroom and also provide two simulation lesson plans with samples for Capeverdean Third Cycle English Language Students.

New ideas need new space

We develop a setting with weak intellectual property rights, where firms' boundaries, location and knowledge spillovers are endogenous. We have two main results. The first one is that, if communication costs increase with distance, entrepreneurs concerned about information leakage have a benefit from locating away from the industry center: distance is an obstacle to collusive trades between members andnon-members. The second result is that we identify a trade-off for the entrepreneur between owning a facility (controlling all its characteristics) and sharing a facility with a {\it non-member} (an agent not involved in production), therefore losing control over some of its characteristics. We focus on ``location" as the relevant characteristic of the facility, but location can be used as a spatial metaphor for other relevant characteristics of the facility. For theentrepreneur, sharing the facility with non-members implies that the latter, as co-owners, know the location (even if they do not have access to it). Knowledge of the location for the co-owners facilitates collusion with employees, what increases leakage. The model yields a benefit for new plants from spatial dispersion (locating at the periphery of the industry), particularly so for new plants of new firms.We relate this result with recent empirical findings on the dynamics of industry location.

A dynamic choice model of hybrid behavior in the attribute-space

This paper presents a dynamic choice model in the attributespace considering rational consumers that discount the future. In lightof the evidence of several state-dependence patterns, the model isfurther extended by considering a utility function that allows for thedifferent types of behavior described in the literature: pure inertia,pure variety seeking and hybrid. The model presents a stationaryconsumption pattern that can be inertial, where the consumer only buysone product, or a variety-seeking one, where the consumer buys severalproducts simultane-ously. Under the inverted-U marginal utilityassumption, the consumer behaves inertial among the existing brands forseveral periods, and eventually, once the stationary levels areapproached, the consumer turns to a variety-seeking behavior. An empiricalanalysis is run using a scanner database for fabric softener andsignificant evidence of hybrid behavior for most attributes is found,which supports the functional form considered in the theory.

ETYK III-vaihe: Tasavallan Presidentin päätössanat 1.8.1975 = Third Stage of the CSCE = closing statement by the President of Finland August 1, 1975

Puhe

Suprapineal recess: an alternate site for third ventriculostomy? Case report.

This 30-year-old woman presented with clinical symptoms and signs of intracranial hypertension and Parinaud syndrome secondary to ventriculoperitoneal shunt dysfunction. Magnetic resonance (MR) imaging revealed gross triventricular hydrocephalus with a large suprapineal recess due to aqueductal stenosis. Using an endoscopic approach, a ventriculostomy was performed within the floor of the dilated suprapineal recess. Following this procedure the patient experienced alleviation of all her neurological symptoms and signs. Postoperative MR imaging and cerebrospinal fluid flow studies demonstrated a functioning ventriculostomy. The anatomy of the suprapineal recess and its suitability for endoscopic ventriculostomy are discussed.

Hybrid consumption paths in the attribute space: A model and application with scanner data

This paper presents and estimates a dynamic choice model in the attribute space considering rational consumers. In light of the evidence of several state-dependence patterns, the standard attribute-based model is extended by considering a general utility function where pure inertia and pure variety-seeking behaviors can be explained in the model as particular linear cases. The dynamics of the model are fully characterized by standard dynamic programming techniques. The model presents a stationary consumption pattern that can be inertial, where the consumer only buys one product, or a variety-seeking one, where the consumer shifts among varied products.We run some simulations to analyze the consumption paths out of the steady state. Underthe hybrid utility assumption, the consumer behaves inertially among the unfamiliar brandsfor several periods, eventually switching to a variety-seeking behavior when the stationary levels are approached. An empirical analysis is run using scanner databases for three different product categories: fabric softener, saltine cracker, and catsup. Non-linear specifications provide the best fit of the data, as hybrid functional forms are found in all the product categories for most attributes and segments. These results reveal the statistical superiority of the non-linear structure and confirm the gradual trend to seek variety as the level of familiarity with the purchased items increases.