Serpa cheese: technological, biochemical and microbiological characterisation of a PDO ewe's milk cheese coagulated with Cynara cardunculus L

Portugal has a strong tradition of cheesemaking from raw ewe's milk; most of these cheeses are still made on a traditional farmhouse scale. Their production is protected by Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) but the specific biochemical aspects of the majority still need to be characterised. Two different cheesemaking procedures, traditional and semi-industrial, were compared technologically, biochemically and microbiologically. It was observed that, despite the highly significant difference between artisanal and semi-industrial cheeses (P < 0.001), both products were within the limits of national regulations for most parameters except maturation temperature, humidity and the value for the maturation index. Although the present study was not fully representative of the region, the results obtained suggest that the specific regulations for Serpa cheese should be revised and that other parameters, such as moisture and salt-in-moisture content, which are very much dependent on the cheesemaking process, should be included in order to characterise better this traditional cheese.

Expert judgement in the processes of commercial property market forecasting

In this paper, we investigate the role of judgement in the formation of forecasts in commercial property markets. The investigation is based on interview surveys with the majority of UK forecast producers, who are using a range of inputs and data sets to form models to predict an array of variables for a range of locations. The findings suggest that forecasts need to be acceptable to their users (and purchasers) and consequently forecasters generally have incentives to avoid presenting contentious or conspicuous forecasts. Where extreme forecasts are generated by a model, forecasters often engage in ‘self‐censorship’ or are ‘censored’ following in‐house consultation. It is concluded that the forecasting process is significantly more complex than merely carrying out econometric modelling, forecasts are mediated and contested within organisations and that impacts can vary considerably across different organizational contexts.

Data dilemmas in forecasting European office market rents

This paper uses data provided by three major real estate advisory firms to investigate the level and pattern of variation in the measurement of historic real estate rental values for the main European office centres. The paper assesses the extent to which the data providing organizations agree on historic market performance in terms of returns, risk and timing and examines the relationship between market maturity and agreement. The analysis suggests that at the aggregate level and for many markets, there is substantial agreement on direction, quantity and timing of market change. However, there is substantial variability in the level of agreement among cities. The paper also assesses whether the different data sets produce different explanatory models and market forecast. It is concluded that, although disagreement on the direction of market change is high for many market, the different data sets often produce similar explanatory models and predict similar relative performance.