Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants

This paper presents a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). ECLIPSE had a unique systematic concept for designing a realistic and effective mitigation scenario for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs; methane, aerosols and ozone, and their precursor species) and quantifying its climate and air quality impacts, and this paper presents the results in the context of this overarching strategy. The first step in ECLIPSE was to create a new emission inventory based on current legislation (CLE) for the recent past and until 2050. Substantial progress compared to previous work was made by including previously unaccounted types of sources such as flaring of gas associated with oil production, and wick lamps. These emission data were used for present-day reference simulations with four advanced Earth system models (ESMs) and six chemistry transport models (CTMs). The model simulations were compared with a variety of ground-based and satellite observational data sets from Asia, Europe and the Arctic. It was found that the models still underestimate the measured seasonality of aerosols in the Arctic but to a lesser extent than in previous studies. Problems likely related to the emissions were identified for northern Russia and India, in particular. To estimate the climate impacts of SLCPs, ECLIPSE followed two paths of research: the first path calculated radiative forcing (RF) values for a large matrix of SLCP species emissions, for different seasons and regions independently. Based on these RF calculations, the Global Temperature change Potential metric for a time horizon of 20 years (GTP20) was calculated for each SLCP emission type. This climate metric was then used in an integrated assessment model to identify all emission mitigation measures with a beneficial air quality and short-term (20-year) climate impact. These measures together defined a SLCP mitigation (MIT) scenario. Compared to CLE, the MIT scenario would reduce global methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) emissions by about 50 and 80 %, respectively. For CH4, measures on shale gas production, waste management and coal mines were most important. For non-CH4 SLCPs, elimination of high-emitting vehicles and wick lamps, as well as reducing emissions from gas flaring, coal and biomass stoves, agricultural waste, solvents and diesel engines were most important. These measures lead to large reductions in calculated surface concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. We estimate that in the EU, the loss of statistical life expectancy due to air pollution was 7.5 months in 2010, which will be reduced to 5.2 months by 2030 in the CLE scenario. The MIT scenario would reduce this value by another 0.9 to 4.3 months. Substantially larger reductions due to the mitigation are found for China (1.8 months) and India (11–12 months). The climate metrics cannot fully quantify the climate response. Therefore, a second research path was taken. Transient climate ensemble simulations with the four ESMs were run for the CLE and MIT scenarios, to determine the climate impacts of the mitigation. In these simulations, the CLE scenario resulted in a surface temperature increase of 0.70 ± 0.14 K between the years 2006 and 2050. For the decade 2041–2050, the warming was reduced by 0.22 ± 0.07 K in the MIT scenario, and this result was in almost exact agreement with the response calculated based on the emission metrics (reduced warming of 0.22 ± 0.09 K). The metrics calculations suggest that non-CH4 SLCPs contribute ~ 22 % to this response and CH4 78 %. This could not be fully confirmed by the transient simulations, which attributed about 90 % of the temperature response to CH4 reductions. Attribution of the observed temperature response to non-CH4 SLCP emission reductions and BC specifically is hampered in the transient simulations by small forcing and co-emitted species of the emission basket chosen. Nevertheless, an important conclusion is that our mitigation basket as a whole would lead to clear benefits for both air quality and climate. The climate response from BC reductions in our study is smaller than reported previously, possibly because our study is one of the first to use fully coupled climate models, where unforced variability and sea ice responses cause relatively strong temperature fluctuations that may counteract (and, thus, mask) the impacts of small emission reductions. The temperature responses to the mitigation were generally stronger over the continents than over the oceans, and with a warming reduction of 0.44 K (0.39–0.49) K the largest over the Arctic. Our calculations suggest particularly beneficial climate responses in southern Europe, where surface warming was reduced by about 0.3 K and precipitation rates were increased by about 15 (6–21) mm yr−1 (more than 4 % of total precipitation) from spring to autumn. Thus, the mitigation could help to alleviate expected future drought and water shortages in the Mediterranean area. We also report other important results of the ECLIPSE project.

An empirical model comparison for valuing crack spread options

In this paper, we investigate the pricing of crack spread options. Particular emphasis is placed on the question of whether univariate modeling of the crack spread or explicit modeling of the two underlyings is preferable. Therefore, we contrast a bivariate GARCH volatility model for cointegrated underlyings with the alternative of modeling the crack spread directly. Conducting an empirical analysis of crude oil/heating oil and crude oil/gasoline crack spread options traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the more simplistic univariate approach is found to be superior with respect to option pricing performance.

Emission of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from gasohol and ethanol vehicles

The exhaust emission of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) considered toxic to human health were investigated on two spark ignition light duty vehicles, one being gasohol (Gasohol, in Brazil, is the generic denomination for mixtures of pure gasoline plus 20-25% of anhydrous ethyl alcohol fuel (AEAF).)-fuelled and the other a flexible-fuel vehicle fuelled with hydrated ethanol. The influence of fuel type and quality, aged lubricant oil type and use of fuel additives on the formation of these compounds was tested using standardized tests identical to US FTP-75 cycle. PAH sampling and chemical analysis followed the basic recommendations of method TO-13 (United States. Environmental Protection Agency, 1999. Compendium Method TO-13A - Determination of polycyclic Aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) in Ambient Air Using Gas Chromatography/Mass Spectrometry (CG/MS). Center for environmental research information, Cincinnati, p. 78), with the necessary modification for this particular application. Results showed that the total PAH emission factor varied from 41.9 mu g km(-1) to 612 mu g km(-1) in the gasohol vehicle, and from 11.7 mu g km(-1) to 27.4 mu g km(-1) in the ethanol-fuelled vehicle, a significant difference in favor of the ethanol vehicle. Generally, emission of light molecular weight PAHs was predominant, while high molecular weights PAHs were not detected. In terms of benzo(a)pyrene toxicity equivalence, emission factors varied from 0.00984 mu g TEQ km(-1) to 4.61 mu g TEQ km(-1) for the gasohol vehicle and from 0.0117 mu g TEQ km(-1) to 0.0218 mu g TEQ km(-1) in the ethanol vehicle. For the gasohol vehicle, results showed that the use of fuel additive causes a significant increase in the emission of naphthalene and phenanthrene at a confidence level of 90% or higher; the use of rubber solvent on gasohol showed a reduction in the emission of naphthalene and phenanthrene at the same confidence level; the use of synthetic oil instead of mineral oil also contributed significantly to a decrease in the emission of naphthalene and fluorene. In relation to the ethanol vehicle, the same factors were tested and showed no statistically significant influence on PAH emission. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bioethanol from lignocelluloses: Status and perspectives in Brazil

The National Alcohol Program - ProAlcool, created by the government of Brazil in 1975 resulted less dependency on fossil fuels. The addition of 25% ethanol to gasoline reduced the import of 550 million barrels oil and also reduced the emission CO(2) by 110 million tons. Today, 44% of the Brazilian energy matrix is renewable and 13.5% is derived from sugarcane. Brazil has a land area of 851 million hectares, of which 54% are preserved, including the Amazon forest (350 million hectares). From the land available for agriculture (340 million hectares), only 0.9% is occupied by sugarcane as energy crop, showing a great expansion potential. Studies have shown that in the coming years, ethanol yield per hectare of sugarcane, which presently is 6000 L/ha, could reach 10,000 L/ha, if 50% of the produced bagasse would be converted to ethanol. This article describes the efforts of different Brazilian institutions and research groups on second generation bioethanol production, especially from sugarcane bagasse. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The potential for first-generation ethanol production from sugarcane

Ethanol production from sugarcane, mainly in Brazil, on the basis of first-generation technology (22.5 billion liters, in 2007/2008 season, in 3.4 million hectares) replaces 1% of the gasoline used in the world today and is highly competitive in economic terms with ethanol produced from other crops in the USA and Europe. In this paper we discuss the potential for sugarcane ethanol expansion from two angles: (1) productivity gains which would allow greater production in the same area and (2) geographical expansion to larger areas. The potential of first-generation technology for the production of ethanol from sugarcane is far from being exhausted. There are gains in productivity of approximately a factor of two from genetically modified varieties and a geographical expansion by a factor of ten of the present level of production in many sugar-producing countries. The replacement of 10% of the gasoline used in the world by ethanol from sugarcane seems possible before second-generation technology reaches technological maturity and possibly economic competitiveness. (C) 2009 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Are biofuels a feasible option?

Recently a number of objections have been raised against the use of ethanol produced from agricultural products such as maize, sugarcane, wheat or sugar beets as a replacement for gasoline, despite some of their advantages such as being cleaner and to some extent renewable. We address these objections in this paper. Topics discussed include the ""corn connection"" (which was theorized to be a cause of deforestation in the Amazonia), the rise of food prices due to ethanol production and the real possibilities of ethanol in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It has been shown that such concerns are grossly exaggerated and that ethanol from sugarcane, as produced in Brazil, is the preferred option for the production of fuel not only in terms of cost but also as a favourable energy balance. Finally, the possibility of expanding ethanol production to other sugar-producing countries is also discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Insights into the dynamics and sources of atmospheric lead and particulate matter in Sao Paulo, Brazil, from high temporal resolution sampling

We present the first results of a study investigating the processes that control concentrations and sources of Pb and particulate matter in the atmosphere of Sao Paulo City Brazil Aerosols were collected with high temporal resolution (3 hours) during a four-day period in July 2005 The highest Pb concentrations measured coincided with large fireworks during celebration events and associated to high traffic occurrence Our high-resolution data highlights the impact that a singular transient event can have on air quality even in a megacity Under meteorological conditions non-conducive to pollutant dispersion Pb and particulate matter concentrations accumulated during the night leading to the highest concentrations in aerosols collected early in the morning of the following day The stable isotopes of Pb suggest that emissions from traffic remain an Important source of Pb in Sao Paulo City due to the large traffic fleet despite low Pb concentrations in fuels (C) 2010 Elsevier BV All rights reserved

Polymeric electronic gas sensor for determining alcohol content in automotive fuels

In this paper we describe the electrosynthesis of poly[(2-bromo-5-hexyloxy- 1,4-phenylenevinylene)-co-(1,4-phenylenevinylene)] (BHPPV-co-PPV), a novel conducting copolymer, and its application as active layer of a chemiresistive gas sensor suitable for quantification of ethanol present in ethanol-gasoline mixtures normally present in the fuel tanks of flex-fuel vehicles. This information is crucial for the smooth operation of the engine since it permits optimal air:fuel ratio regulation. The sensor consists of an interdigitated electrode coated with a thin polymer film doped with dodecylbenzenesulfonic acid. On exposure to fuel vapours at room temperature, the device presents a linear correlation between its electrical conductance and the ethanol concentration in the fuel. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bioluminescent sensor for naphthalene in air: Cell immobilization and evaluation with a dynamic standard atmosphere generator

A dynamic atmosphere generator with a naphthalene emission source has been constructed and used for the development and evaluation of a bioluminescence sensor based on the bacteria Pseudomonas fluorescens HK44 immobilized in 2% agar gel (101 cell mL(-1)) placed in sampling tubes. A steady naphthalene emission rate (around 7.3 nmol min(-1) at 27 degrees C and 7.4 mLmin(-1) of purified air) was obtained by covering the diffusion unit containing solid naphthalene with a PTFE filter membrane. The time elapsed from gelation of the agar matrix to analyte exposure (""maturation time"") was found relevant for the bioluminescence assays, being most favorable between 1.5 and 3 h. The maximum light emission, observed after 80 min, is dependent on the analyte concentration and the exposure time (evaluated between 5 and 20 min), but not on the flow rate of naphthalene in the sampling tube, over the range of 1.8-7.4 nmol min(-1). A good linear response was obtained between 50 and 260 nmol L-1 with a limit of detection estimated in 20 nmol L-1 far below the recommended threshold limit value for naphthalene in air. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

In Bio-Fuel We Trust

In bio-fuel we trust. Or do we? In this chapter, ethnographic material from Sweden is used to discuss ways sin which trust may influence the choice of bio-fuel for heating purposes. The meaning and substance of trust or distrust, as well as the very conditions for trust, are elaborated on in relation to solar and bio-pellet systems, district heating with bio-fuel, and traditional fireplaces. An important conclusion of this chapter is that the degree to which people perceive others as being like themselves or not tends to be decisive for whether these others are to be trusted, and therefore worth listening to. The context and situation in which a certain heating system is being chosen does not only involve trust in individuals, however, but in companies and the authorities, as well as in the arterfacts themselves. An example is given on how distrust of district heating companies led house owners to reject an offer of district heating despite the comfort and environmental benefit this could have provided. it is shown how this distrust might be resolved by making the rhythm of households and sitrict heating companies more in step with one another. The strong emotional attachment to and deep-felt trust in the traditional fireplace is also analysed, and a question is put forward as to whether these feelings could be transferred to modern bio-pellet stoves. Finally, our great and assured trust in bio-fuel as a main solution to global climate change is shortly commented upon and partly questioned.

Elbesparing med pelletkaminer och solvärme i direktelvärmda småhus

The aim of this study was to investigate how electricallyheated houses can be converted to using wood pellet and solarheating. There are a large number of wood pellet stoves on themarket. Many stoves have a water jacket, which gives anopportunity to distribute the heat to domestic hot water and aradiator heating system. Three typical Swedish houses with electric resistanceheating have been studied. Fourteen different system conceptsusing wood pellet stoves and solar heating systems have beenevaluated. The systems and the houses have been simulated indetail using TRNSYS. The houses have been divided in up to 10different zones and heat transfer by air circulation throughdoorways and open doors have been simulated. The pellet stoveswere simulated using a recently developed TRNSYS component,which models the start- and stop phases, emissions and thedynamic behaviour of the stoves. The model also calculates theCO-emissions. Simulations were made with one stove without awater jacket and two stoves with different fractions of thegenerated heat distributed in the water circuit. Simulations show that the electricity savings using a pelletstove are greatly affected by the house plan, the systemchoice, if the internal doors are open or closed and thedesired level of comfort. Installing a stove with awater-jacket connected to a radiator system and a hot waterstorage has the advantage that heat can be transferred todomestic hot water and be distributed to other rooms. Suchsystems lead to greater electricity savings, especially inhouses having a traditional layout. It was found that not allrooms needed radiators and that it was more effective in mostcases t use a stove with a higher fraction of the heatdistributed by the water circuit. The economic investigation shows that installing a woodpellet stove without a water jacket gives the lowest totalenergy- and capital costs in the house with an open plan (fortoday's energy prices and the simulated comfort criteria). Inthe houses with a traditional layout a pellet stove givesslightly higher costs than the reference house having onlyelectrical resistance heating due to the fact that less heatingcan be replaced. The concepts including stoves with a waterjacket all give higher costs than the reference system, but theconcept closest to be economical is a system with a bufferstore, a stove with a high fraction of the heat distributed bythe water circuit, a new water radiator heating system and asolar collector. Losses from stoves can be divided into: flue gas lossesincluding leakage air flow when the stove is not in operation;losses during start and stop phases; and losses due to a highair factor. An increased efficiency of the stoves is importantboth from a private economical point of view, but also from theperspective that there can be a lack of bio fuel in the nearfuture also in Sweden. From this point of view it is alsoimportant to utilize as much solar heat as possible. Theutilization of solar heat is low in the simulated systems,depending on the lack of space for a large buffer store. The simulations have shown that the annual efficiency ismuch lower that the nominal efficiency at full power. Thesimulations have also shown that changing the control principlefor the stove can improve efficiency and reduce theCO-emissions. Today's most common control principle for stovesis the on/off control, which results in many starts and stopsand thereby high CO-emissions. A more advanced control varyingthe heating rate from maximum to minimum to keep a constantroom temperature reduces the number of starts and stops andthereby the emissions. Also the efficiency can be higher withsuch a control, and the room temperature will be kept at a moreconstant temperature providing a higher comfort.

Combined solar and pellet heating systems for single-family houses : How to achieve decreased electricity usage, increased system efficiency and increased solar gains

In Sweden, there are about 0.5 million single-family houses that are heated by electricity alone, and rising electricity costs force the conversion to other heating sources such as heat pumps and wood pellet heating systems. Pellet heating systems for single-family houses are currently a strongly growing market. Future lack of wood fuels is possible even in Sweden, and combining wood pellet heating with solar heating will help to save the bio-fuel resources. The objectives of this thesis are to investigate how the electrically heated single-family houses can be converted to pellet and solar heating systems, and how the annual efficiency and solar gains can be increased in such systems. The possible reduction of CO-emissions by combining pellet heating with solar heating has also been investigated. Systems with pellet stoves (both with and without a water jacket), pellet boilers and solar heating have been simulated. Different system concepts have been compared in order to investigate the most promising solutions. Modifications in system design and control strategies have been carried out in order to increase the system efficiency and the solar gains. Possibilities for increasing the solar gains have been limited to investigation of DHW-units for hot water production and the use of hot water for heating of dishwashers and washing machines via a heat exchanger instead of electricity (heat-fed appliances). Computer models of pellet stoves, boilers, DHW-units and heat-fed appliances have been developed and the parameters for the models have been identified from measurements on real components. The conformity between the models and the measurements has been checked. The systems with wood pellet stoves have been simulated in three different multi-zone buildings, simulated in detail with heat distribution through door openings between the zones. For the other simulations, either a single-zone house model or a load file has been used. Simulations were carried out for Stockholm, Sweden, but for the simulations with heat-fed machines also for Miami, USA. The foremost result of this thesis is the increased understanding of the dynamic operation of combined pellet and solar heating systems for single-family houses. The results show that electricity savings and annual system efficiency is strongly affected by the system design and the control strategy. Large reductions in pellet consumption are possible by combining pellet boilers with solar heating (a reduction larger than the solar gains if the system is properly designed). In addition, large reductions in carbon monoxide emissions are possible. To achieve these reductions it is required that the hot water production and the connection of the radiator circuit is moved to a well insulated, solar heated buffer store so that the boiler can be turned off during the periods when the solar collectors cover the heating demand. The amount of electricity replaced using systems with pellet stoves is very dependant on the house plan, the system design, if internal doors are open or closed and the comfort requirements. Proper system design and control strategies are crucial to obtain high electricity savings and high comfort with pellet stove systems. The investigated technologies for increasing the solar gains (DHW-units and heat-fed appliances) significantly increase the solar gains, but for the heat-fed appliances the market introduction is difficult due to the limited financial savings and the need for a new heat distribution system. The applications closest to market introduction could be for communal laundries and for use in sunny climates where the dominating part of the heat can be covered by solar heating. The DHW-unit is economical but competes with the internal finned-tube heat exchanger which is the totally dominating technology for hot water preparation in solar combisystems for single-family houses.

Improving comfort levels in a traditional high altitude Nepali house

Humla Province is a remote mountainous region of northwest Nepal. The climate is harsh and the local people are extremely poor. Most people endure a subsistence culture, living in traditional housing. Energy for cooking and heating comes from fuelwood, supplies of which are diminishing. In order to improve the indoor environment and reduce fuelwood use, smokeless stoves are being introduced to replace the open fire in Humli homes. There is some concern, however, that comfort levels may not be as acceptable with these stoves. The aim of this research was therefore to investigate ways in which the comfort levels in traditional Humli housing might be improved using simple and low cost strategies. Temperature data was recorded in four rooms of a traditional Humli home over a 12-day period and used with fuelwood data to validate a TRNSYS simulation model of the house. This model was then used to evaluate the impact on comfort levels in the house of various energy conservation strategies using PMV and PPD indicators. As a single strategy, it was found that reducing infiltration of outside air was likely to be more effective than increasing the insulation level in the ceilings. The most successful strategy, however, was the creation of sunspaces at the entrances to the living rooms. This strategy increased average internal temperatures by 1.7 and 2.3 °C. In combination with increased insulation levels, the sunspaces reduced comfort dissatisfaction levels by over 50%.

Economic linkages across commodity futures : hedging and trading implications

We investigate cross-market trading dynamics in futures contracts written on seemingly unrelated commodities that are consumed by a common industry. On the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, we find such evidence in natural rubber (NR), palladium (PA) and gasoline (GA) futures markets. The automobile industry is responsible for more than 50% of global demand for each of these commodities. VAR estimation reveals short-run cross-market interaction between NR and GA, and from NR to PA. Cross-market influence exerted by PA is felt in longer dynamics, with PA volatility (volume) affecting NR (GA) volume (volatility). Our findings are robust to lag-specification, volatility measure, and consistent with full BEKK-GARCH estimation results. Further analysis, which benchmarks against silver futures market, TOCOM index and TOPIX transportation index, confirms that our results are driven by a common industry exposure, and not a commodity market factor. A simple trading rule that incorporates short-run GA and long-run PA dynamics to predict NR return yields positive economic profit. Our study offers new insights into how commodity and equity markets relate at an industry level, and implications for multi-commodity hedging.

Common industry exposure in seemingly unrelated commodities

We propose and document robust evidence of cross-market return, volatility, and volume interactions among futures contracts written seemingly unrelated commodities exposed to a common industry. On the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, we find such evidence in natural rubber (NR), aluminum (AL) and gasoline (GA) futures markets, which are complementary commodities heavily consumed by Japan's automobile industry. Our VAR results indicate that (i) for shorter dynamics, NR and GA volatility both influence AL volatility; GA volume affects NR volatility and volume; the GA market is immune to both NR and AL trading activities; (ii) for longer dynamics, AL volume affects both NR volume and GA volatility; NR volume influences GA volume. These results are robust to lag-specifications, volatility measures and are consistent with full BEKK-GARCH estimates. Further analysis using the silver contract, TOCOM and TOPIX transportation indices, shows that a commodity market factor cannot explain our result. Our results offer insights into how commodity and equity markets relate at an industry level.