995 resultados para Statistical decision


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Given global demand for new infrastructure, governments face substantial challenges in funding new infrastructure and delivering Value for Money (VfM). As part of the background to this challenge, a critique is given of current practice in the selection of the approach to procure major public sector infrastructure in Australia and which is akin to the Multi-Attribute Utility Approach (MAUA). To contribute towards addressing the key weaknesses of MAUA, a new first-order procurement decision-making model is presented. The model addresses the make-or-buy decision (risk allocation); the bundling decision (property rights incentives), as well as the exchange relationship decision (relational to arms-length exchange) in its novel approach to articulating a procurement strategy designed to yield superior VfM across the whole life of the asset. The aim of this paper is report on the development of this decisionmaking model in terms of the procedural tasks to be followed and the method being used to test the model. The planned approach to testing the model uses a sample of 87 Australian major infrastructure projects in the sum of AUD32 billion and deploys a key proxy for VfM comprising expressions of interest, as an indicator of competition.

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As the first stage of power system restoration after a blackout, an optimal black-start scheme is very important for speeding up the whole restoration procedure. Up to now, much research work has been done on generating or selecting an optimal black-start scheme by a single round of decision-making. However, less attention has been paid for improving the final decision-making results through a multiple-round decision-making procedure. In the group decision-making environment, decision-making results evaluated by different black-start experts may differ significantly with each other. Thus, the consistency of black-start decision-making results could be deemed as an important indicator in assessing the black-start group decision-making results. Given this background, an intuitionistic fuzzy distance-based method is presented to analyse the consistency of black-start group decision-making results. Moreover, the weights of black-start indices as well as the weights of decision-making experts are modified in order to optimise the consistency of black-start group decision-making results. Finally, an actual example is served for demonstrating the proposed method.

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This article examines the law in Australia and New Zealand that governs the withholding and withdrawal of ‘futile’ life-sustaining treatment. Although doctors have both civil and criminal law duties to treat patients, those general duties do not require the provision of treatment that is deemed to be futile. This is either because futile treatment is not in a patient’s best interests or because stopping such treatment does not breach the criminal law. This means, in the absence of a duty to treat, doctors may unilaterally withdraw or withhold treatment that is futile; consent is not required. The article then examines whether this general position has been altered by statute. It considers a range of suggested possible legislation but concludes it is likely that only Queensland’s adult guardianship legislation imposes a requirement to obtain consent to withhold or withdraw such treatment.

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Background: Demand for pre-hospital emergency care is increasing in Australia as in many other countries. Using posthoc criteria such as triage, diagnosis and admission status, some authors view a considerable number of these as "inappropriate". Yet, calling an ambulance at the time of emergency is rarely studied from the patients’ or their carers’ perspective. This study interviewed patients about the decision, circumstances surrounding and reasons for calling an ambulance in Queensland, Australia. Methods: A cross-sectional survey of patients attending a sample of eight public hospital emergency departments in Queensland was undertaken between March and May 2011. In total, 911 questionnaires were collected (response rate: 67%), of whom 226 (24.8%) had arrived by ambulance. Results: In 35.6% of ambulance arrivals, the decision to request an ambulance was made by the patient; 25% by a doctor; 20% by a family member, friend or carer. Other callers included nurse, people at work or school, and passers-by. Reasons to request an ambulance included urgency (87%) and severity (84%) of the condition. Other reasons included requiring special care (76%), getting higher priority at the emergency department (34%), not having a car (34%), and financial concerns (17%). Decision to request an ambulance varied significantly according to the time of illness onset (e.g. on the day, week before), and location (e.g. home, outside). Conclusion: The decision to call an ambulance is made mostly by non-medical professionals in a perceived emergency situation. They call the ambulance for different reasons but mainly take into account the patient’s welfare and safety. Better understanding of these reasons will affect the direction and effectiveness of demand management strategies.

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In the construction industry, contractors have to improve the efficiency of markup decision-making to survive from fierce business competition. The effect of client type on markup decision has been aware in previous studies and contractors are advocated to take account of decision factors properly when they are confronted with different types of projects. Nevertheless, the rationales behind the inclusion of different factors in markup decision-making for different projects sustain unknown. In this study, fifty-three factors were identified after extensive literature review and interviews with professionals. The identified factors were afterwards grouped under the headings of nine attributes and compiled in a questionnaire for survey in China. Using the Hotelling’s T-square test, it is found that three attributes (i.e., project characteristic, client characteristic, and macro condition) can explain the effect of client type on contractors’ markup decision. The research findings provide useful insights into the cognition of bid pricing as well as the improvement of bidding efficiency. While the research works were situated in China, contractors in other countries could benefit from the research findings in a similar vein.

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Technological growth in the 21st century is exponential. Simultaneously, development of the associated risk, uncertainty and user acceptance are scattered. This required appropriate study to establish people accepting controversial technology (PACT). The Internet and services around it, such as World Wide Web, e-mail, instant messaging and social networking are increasingly becoming important in many aspects of our lives. Information related to medical and personal health sharing using the Internet is controversial and demand validity, usability and acceptance. Whilst literature suggest, Internet enhances patients and physicians’ positive interactions some studies establish opposite of such interaction in particular the associated risk. In recent years Internet has attracted considerable attention as a means to improve health and health care delivery. However, it is not clear how widespread the use of Internet for health care really is or what impact it has on health care utilisation. Estimated impact of Internet usage varies widely from the locations locally and globally. As a result, an estimate (or predication) of Internet use and their effects in Medical Informatics related decision-making is impractical. This open up research issues on validating and accepting Internet usage when designing and developing appropriate policy and processes activities for Medical Informatics, Health Informatics and/or e-Health related protocols. Access and/or availability of data on Internet usage for Medical Informatics related activities are unfeasible. This paper presents a trend analysis of the growth of Internet usage in medical informatics related activities. In order to perform the analysis, data was extracted from ERA (Excellence Research in Australia) ranked “A” and “A*” Journal publications and reports from the authenticated public domain. The study is limited to the analyses of Internet usage trends in United States, Italy, France and Japan. Projected trends and their influence to the field of medical informatics is reviewed and discussed. The study clearly indicates a trend of patients becoming active consumers of health information rather than passive recipients.

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The health system is one sector dealing with very large amount of complex data. Many healthcare organisations struggle to utilise these volumes of health data effectively and efficiently. Therefore, there is a need for very effective system to capture, collate and distribute this health data. There are number of technologies have been identified to integrate data from different sources. Data warehousing is one technology can be used to manage clinical data in the healthcare. This paper addresses how data warehousing assist to improve cardiac surgery decision making. This research used the cardiac surgery unit at the Prince Charles Hospital (TPCH) as the case study. In order to deal with other units efficiently, it is important to integrate disparate data to a single point interrogation. We propose implementing a data warehouse for the cardiac surgery unit at TPCH. The data warehouse prototype developed using SAS enterprise data integration studio 4.2 and data was analysed using SAS enterprise edition 4.3. This improves access to integrated clinical and financial data with, improved framing of data to the clinical context, giving potentially better informed decision making for both improved management and patient care.

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Recent advances in the area of ‘Transformational Government’ position the citizen at the centre of focus. This paradigm shift from a department-centric to a citizen-centric focus requires governments to re-think their approach to service delivery, thereby decreasing costs and increasing citizen satisfaction. The introduction of franchises as a virtual business layer between the departments and their citizens is intended to provide a solution. Franchises are structured to address the needs of citizens independent of internal departmental structures. For delivering services online, governments pursue the development of a One-Stop Portal, which structures information and services through those franchises. Thus, each franchise can be mapped to a specific service bundle, which groups together services that are deemed to be of relevance to a specific citizen need. This study focuses on the development and evaluation of these service bundles. In particular, two research questions guide the line of investigation of this study: Research Question 1): What methods can be used by governments to identify service bundles as part of governmental One-Stop Portals? Research Question 2): How can the quality of service bundles in governmental One-Stop Portals be evaluated? The first research question asks about the identification of suitable service bundle identification methods. A literature review was conducted, to, initially, conceptualise the service bundling task, in general. As a consequence, a 4-layer model of service bundling and a morphological box were created, detailing characteristics that are of relevance when identifying service bundles. Furthermore, a literature review of Decision-Support Systems was conducted to identify approaches of relevance in different bundling scenarios. These initial findings were complemented by targeted studies of multiple leading governments in the e-government domain, as well as with a local expert in the field. Here, the aim was to identify the current status of online service delivery and service bundling in practice. These findings led to the conceptualising of two service bundle identification methods, applicable in the context of Queensland Government: On the one hand, a provider-driven approach, based on service description languages, attributes, and relationships between services was conceptualised. As well, a citizen-driven approach, based on analysing the outcomes from content identification and grouping workshops with citizens, was also conceptualised. Both methods were then applied and evaluated in practice. The conceptualisation of the provider-driven method for service bundling required the initial specification of relevant attributes that could be used to identify similarities between services called relationships; these relationships then formed the basis for the identification of service bundles. This study conceptualised and defined seven relationships, namely ‘Co-location’, ‘Resource’, ‘Co-occurrence’, ‘Event’, ‘Consumer’, ‘Provider’, and ‘Type’. The relationships, and the bundling method itself, were applied and refined as part of six Action Research cycles in collaboration with the Queensland Government. The findings show that attributes and relationships can be used effectively as a means for bundle identification, if distinct decision rules are in place to prescribe how services are to be identified. For the conceptualisation of the citizen-driven method, insights from the case studies led to the decision to involve citizens, through card sorting activities. Based on an initial list of services, relevant for a certain franchise, participating citizens grouped services according to their liking. The card sorting activity, as well as the required analysis and aggregation of the individual card sorting results, was analysed in depth as part of this study. A framework was developed that can be used as a decision-support tool to assist with the decision of what card sorting analysis method should be utilised in a given scenario. The characteristic features associated with card sorting in a government context led to the decision to utilise statistical analysis approaches, such as cluster analysis and factor analysis, to aggregate card sorting results. The second research question asks how the quality of service bundles can be assessed. An extensive literature review was conducted focussing on bundle, portal, and e-service quality. It was found that different studies use different constructs, terminology, and units of analysis, which makes comparing these models a difficult task. As a direct result, a framework was conceptualised, that can be used to position past and future studies in this research domain. Complementing the literature review, interviews conducted as part of the case studies with leaders in e-government, indicated that, typically, satisfaction is evaluated for the overall portal once the portal is online, but quality tests are not conducted during the development phase. Consequently, a research model which appropriately defines perceived service bundle quality would need to be developed from scratch. Based on existing theory, such as Theory of Reasoned Action, Expectation Confirmation Theory, and Theory of Affordances, perceived service bundle quality was defined as an inferential belief. Perceived service bundle quality was positioned within the nomological net of services. Based on the literature analysis on quality, and on the subsequent work of a focus group, the hypothesised antecedents (descriptive beliefs) of the construct and the associated question items were defined and the research model conceptualised. The model was then tested, refined, and finally validated during six Action Research cycles. Results show no significant difference in higher quality or higher satisfaction among users for either the provider-driven method or for the citizen-driven method. The decision on which method to choose, it was found, should be based on contextual factors, such as objectives, resources, and the need for visibility. The constructs of the bundle quality model were examined. While the quality of bundles identified through the citizen-centric approach could be explained through the constructs ‘Navigation’, ‘Ease of Understanding’, and ‘Organisation’, bundles identified through the provider-driven approach could be explained solely through the constructs ‘Navigation’ and ‘Ease of Understanding’. An active labelling style for bundles, as part of the provider-driven Information Architecture, had a larger impact on ‘Quality’ than the topical labelling style used in the citizen-centric Information Architecture. However, ‘Organisation’, reflecting the internal, logical structure of the Information Architecture, was a significant factor impacting on ‘Quality’ only in the citizen-driven Information Architecture. Hence, it was concluded that active labelling can compensate for a lack of logical structure. Further studies are needed to further test this conjecture. Such studies may involve building alternative models and conducting additional empirical research (e.g. use of an active labelling style for the citizen-driven Information Architecture). This thesis contributes to the body of knowledge in several ways. Firstly, it presents an empirically validated model of the factors explaining and predicting a citizen’s perception of service bundle quality. Secondly, it provides two alternative methods that can be used by governments to identify service bundles in structuring the content of a One-Stop Portal. Thirdly, this thesis provides a detailed narrative to suggest how the recent paradigm shift in the public domain, towards a citizen-centric focus, can be pursued by governments; the research methodology followed by this study can serve as an exemplar for governments seeking to achieve a citizen-centric approach to service delivery.

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Aim The misuse and abuse of Enduring Powers of Attorney (EPAs) by attorneys, particularly in relation to financial decision-making, is a growing concern. This paper explores the opportunities to enhance accountability of attorneys at the time of the execution of the document in Queensland. Method A four stage multi-method design comprised a critical reference group; semi-structured interviews with 32 principals or potential principals, attorneys and witnesses; two focus groups with service providers and a state wide survey of 76 principals, attorneys and witnesses. Results Across all methods and user groups, understanding the role and obligations of the attorney in an EPA was consistently identified as problematic. Conclusions Promoting accountability and understanding can be addressed by greater attention to the role of the attorney in the forms/ guidelines and in the structure and witnessing of the forms, increased direction about record keeping and access to appropriate advice and support.

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How and why football referees made decisions was investigated. A constructivist grounded theory methodology was undertaken to tap into the experiential knowledge of referees. The participant cohort comprised 7 A-League referees (aged 23 to 35) and 8 local Brisbane league referees (aged 20 to 50), spanning the lowest to highest levels of competition in men’s football in Australia. Results found that referees used ‘four pillars’ to underpin their judgments, these were conceptual notions of: safety, fairness, accuracy and entertainment. A fifth pillar ‘consistency’ referred to the referee’s ‘contextual sensitivity’. Results were explained using an ecological dynamics framework that emphasises the individual-environment scale of analysis. It was concluded that interacting constraints shape emergent decision-making in referees which are nested in task goals.

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The latest paradigm shift in government, termed Transformational Government, puts the citizen in the centre of attention. Including citizens in the design of online one-stop portals can help governmental organisations to become more customer focussed. This study describes the initial efforts of an Australian state government to develop an information architecture to structure the content of their future one-stop portal. Hereby, card sorting exercises have been conducted and analysed, utilising contemporary approaches found in academic and non-scientific literature. This paper describes the findings of the card sorting exercises in this particular case and discusses the suitability of the applied approaches in general. These are distinguished into non-statistical, statistical, and hybrid approaches. Thus, on the one hand, this paper contributes to academia by describing the application of different card sorting approaches and discussing their strengths and weaknesses. On the other hand, this paper contributes to practice by explaining the approach that has been taken by the authors’ research partner in order to develop a customer-focussed governmental one-stop portal. Thus, they provide decision support for practitioners with regard to different analysis methods that can be used to complement recent approaches in Transformational Government.

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This research examined why university campus development has not fully embraced green technology despite common expectations. Semi-structured interviews and a Delphi Study explored universities’ organisational issues and delivery processes for projects with a sustainability focus. Critical organisational components and their internal relationships were studied, and critical factors for project success identified. A decision-making framework was developed to provide strategic directions for universities to optimise organisational environment and overcome barriers in order to better deliver sustainable projects on campuses.

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As highlighted by previous work in Normal Accident Theory1 and High Reliability Organisations, 2 the ability of a system to be flexible is of critical importance to its capability to prepare for, respond to, and recover from disturbance and disasters. This paper proposes that the research into ‘edge organisations’3 and ‘agility’4 is a potential means to operationalise components that embed high reliable traits in the management and oversight of critical infrastructure systems. Much prior work has focused on these concepts in a military frame whereas the study reported on here examines the application of these concepts to aviation infrastructure, specifically, a commercial international airport. As a commercial entity functions in a distinct manner from a military organisation this study aims to better understand the complementary and contradictory components of the application of agility work to a commercial context. Findings highlight the challenges of making commercial operators of infrastructure systems agile as well as embedding traits of High Reliability in such complex infrastructure settings.

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When a community already torn by an event such as a prolonged war, is then hit by a natural disaster, the negative impact of this subsequent disaster in the longer term can be extremely devastating. Natural disasters further damage already destabilised and demoralised communities, making it much harder for them to be resilient and recover. Communities often face enormous challenges during the immediate recovery and the subsequent long term reconstruction periods, mainly due to the lack of a viable community involvement process. In post-war settings, affected communities, including those internally displaced, are often conceived as being completely disabled and are hardly ever consulted when reconstruction projects are being instigated. This lack of community involvement often leads to poor project planning, decreased community support, and an unsustainable completed project. The impact of war, coupled with the tensions created by the uninhabitable and poor housing provision, often hinders the affected residents from integrating permanently into their home communities. This paper outlines a number of fundamental factors that act as barriers to community participation related to natural disasters in post-war settings. The paper is based on a statistical analysis of, and findings from, a questionnaire survey administered in early 2012 in Afghanistan.

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Jakarta, Indonesia’s chronic housing shortage poses multiple challenges for contemporary policy-makers. While it may be in the city’s interest to increase the availability of housing, there is limited land to do so. Market pressures, in tandem with government’s desire for housing availability, demand consideration of even marginal lands, such as those within floodplains, for development. Increasingly, planning for a flood resilient Jakarta is complicated by a number of factors, including: the city is highly urbanized and land use data is limited; flood management is technically complex, creating potential barriers to engagement for both decision-makers and the public; inherent uncertainty exists throughout modelling efforts, central to management; and risk and liability for infrastructure investments is unclear. These obstacles require localized watershed-level participatory planning to address risks of flooding where possible and reduce the likelihood that informal settlements occur in areas of extreme risk. This paper presents a preliminary scoping study for determination of an effective participatory planning method to encourage more resilient development. First, the scoping study provides background relevant to the challenges faced in planning for contemporary Jakarta. Second, the study examines the current use of decision-support tools, such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS), in planning for Jakarta. Existing capacity in the use of GIS allows for consideration of the use of an emerging method of community consultation - Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) support systems infused with geospatial information - to aid in engagement with the public and improve decision-making outcomes. While these methods have been used in Australia to promote stakeholder engagement in urban intensification, the planned research will be an early introduction of the method to Indonesia. As a consequence of this intervention, it is expected that planning activities will result in a more resilient city, capable of engaging with disaster risk management in a more effective manner.