Making a match: Combining theory and evidence in policy-oriented macroeconomic modeling

A persistent question in the development of models for macroeconomic policy analysis has been the relative role of economic theory and evidence in their construction. This paper looks at some popular strategies that involve setting up a theoretical or conceptual model (CM) which is transformed to match the data and then made operational for policy analysis. A dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed that is similar to standard CMs. After calibration to UK data it is used to examine the utility of formal econometric methods in assessing the match of the CM to the data and also to evaluate some standard model-building strategies. Keywords: Policy oriented economic modeling; Model evaluation; VAR models

Combining the parts to make the whole : integrated child and family services in Queensland

Over the past decade, the promotion of 'integrated child and family services' has emerged as a strong and consistent theme within Australian early childhood policy. Fuelling this trend is the belief that integrated service provision is more responsive to holistic family needs, offering better support to parents and thereby promoting better outcomes for young children. Adding further strength is the prevention and early intervention literature, and suggested social and economic benefits of 'effective' early years services and supports. States and territories are introducing new integrated child and family service models and Reflections is continuing to profile these. In this edition, we look at directions and new service models in Queensland, in particular, the new Early Years Centre service model.

Business process extensibility

Vendors provide reference process models as consolidated, off-the-shelf solutions to capture best practices in a given industry domain. Customers can then adapt these models to suit their specific requirements. Traditional process flexibility approaches facilitate this operation, but do not fully address it as they do not sufficiently take controlled change guided by vendors’ reference models into account. This tension between the customer’s freedom of adapting reference models, and the ability to incorporate with relatively low effort vendor-initiated reference model changes, thus needs to be carefully balanced. This paper introduces process extensibility as a new paradigm for customising reference processes and managing their evolution over time. Process extensibility mandates a clear recognition of the different responsibilities and interests of reference model vendors and consumers, and is concerned with keeping the effort of customer-side reference model adaptations low while allowing sufficient room for model change.

Flexible high-power multi DC-DC converters for train systems

This thesis reports on the investigations, simulations and analyses of novel power electronics topologies and control strategies. The research is financed by an Australian Research Council (ARC) Linkage (07-09) grant. Therefore, in addition to developing original research and contributing to the available knowledge of power electronics, it also contributes to the design of a DC-DC converter for specific application to the auxiliary power supply in electric trains. Specifically, in this regard, it contributes to the design of a 7.5 kW DC-DC converter for the industrial partner (Schaffler and Associates Ltd) who supported this project. As the thesis is formatted as a ‘thesis by publication’, the contents are organized around published papers. The research has resulted in eleven papers, including seven peer reviewed and published conference papers, one published journal paper, two journal papers accepted for publication and one submitted journal paper (provisionally accepted subject to few changes). In this research, several novel DC-DC converter topologies are introduced, analysed, and tested. The similarity of all of the topologies devised lies in their ‘current circulating’ switching state, which allows them to store some energy in the inductor, as extra inductor current. The stored energy may be applied to enhance the performance of the converter in the occurrence of load current or input voltage disturbances. In addition, when there is an alternating load current, the ability to store energy allows the converter to perform satisfactorily despite frequently and highly varying load current. In this research, the capability of current storage has been utilised to design topologies for specific applications, and the enhancement of the performance of the considered applications has been illustrated. The simplest DC-DC converter topology, which has a ‘current circulating’ switching state, is the Positive Buck-Boost (PBB) converter (also known as the non-inverting Buck-Boost converter). Usually, the topology of the PBB converter is operating as a Buck or a Boost converter in applications with widely varying input voltage or output reference voltage. For example, in electric railways (the application of our industrial partner), the overhead line voltage alternates from 1000VDC to 500VDC and the required regulated voltage is 600VDC. In the course of this research, our industrial partner (Schaffler and Associates Ltd) industrialized a PBB converter–the ‘Mudo converter’–operating at 7.5 kW. Programming the onboard DSP and testing the PBB converter in experimental and nominal power and voltage was part of this research program. In the earlier stages of this research, the advantages and drawbacks of utilization of the ‘current circulating’ switching state in the positive Buck-Boost converter were investigated. In brief, the advantages were found to be robustness against input voltage and current load disturbances, and the drawback was extra conduction and switching loss. Although the robustness against disturbances is desirable for many applications, the price of energy loss must be minimized to attract attention to the utilization of the PBB converter. In further stages of this research, two novel control strategies for different applications were devised to minimise the extra energy loss while the advantages of the positive Buck-Boost converter were fully utilized. The first strategy is Smart Load Controller (SLC) for applications with pre-knowledge or predictability of input voltage and/or load current disturbances. A convenient example of these applications is electric/hybrid cars where a master controller commands all changes in loads and voltage sources. Therefore, the master controller has a pre-knowledge of the load and input voltage disturbances so it can apply the SLC strategy to utilize robustness of the PBB converter. Another strategy aiming to minimise energy loss and maximise the robustness in the face of disturbance is developed to cover applications with unexpected disturbances. This strategy is named Dynamic Hysteresis Band (DHB), and is used to manipulate the hysteresis band height after occurrence of disturbance to reduce dynamics of the output voltage. When no disturbance has occurred, the PBB converter works with minimum inductor current and minimum energy loss. New topologies based on the PBB converter have been introduced to address input voltage disturbances for different onboard applications. The research shows that the performance of applications of symmetrical/asymmetrical multi-level diode-clamped inverters, DC-networks, and linear-assisted RF amplifiers may be enhanced by the utilization of topologies based on the PBB converter. Multi-level diode-clamped inverters have the problem of DC-link voltage balancing when the power factor of their load closes to unity. This research has shown that this problem may be solved with a suitable multi-output DC-DC converter supplying DClink capacitors. Furthermore, the multi-level diode-clamped inverters supplied with asymmetrical DC-link voltages may improve the quality of load voltage and reduce the level of Electromagnetic Interference (EMI). Mathematical analyses and experiments on supplying symmetrical and asymmetrical multi-level inverters by specifically designed multi-output DC-DC converters have been reported in two journal papers. Another application in which the system performance can be improved by utilization of the ‘current circulating’ switching state is linear-assisted RF amplifiers in communicational receivers. The concept of ‘linear-assisted’ is to divide the signal into two frequency domains: low frequency, which should be amplified by a switching circuit; and the high frequency domain, which should be amplified by a linear amplifier. The objective is to minimize the overall power loss. This research suggests using the current storage capacity of a PBB based converter to increase its bandwidth, and to increase the domain of the switching converter. The PBB converter addresses the industrial demand for a DC-DC converter for the application of auxiliary power supply of a typical electric train. However, after testing the industrial prototype of the PBB converter, there were some voltage and current spikes because of switching. To attenuate this problem without significantly increasing the switching loss, the idea of Active Gate Signalling (AGS) is presented. AGS suggests a smart gate driver that selectively controls the switching process to reduce voltage/current spikes, without unacceptable reduction in the efficiency of switching.

Sphingosine-1-phosphate mediates proliferation maintaining the multipotency of human adult bone marrow and adipose tissue-derived stem cells

High renewal and maintenance of multipotency of human adult stem cells (hSCs), are a prerequisite for experimental analysis as well as for potential clinical usages. The most widely used strategy for hSC culture and proliferation is using serum. However, serum is poorly defined and has a considerable degree of inter-batch variation, which makes it difficult for large-scale mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) expansion in homogeneous culture conditions. Moreover, it is often observed that cells grown in serum-containing media spontaneously differentiate into unknown and/or undesired phenotypes. Another way of maintaining hSC development is using cytokines and/or tissue-specific growth factors; this is a very expensive approach and can lead to early unwanted differentiation. In order to circumvent these issues, we investigated the role of sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P), in the growth and multipotency maintenance of human bone marrow and adipose tissue-derived MSCs. We show that S1P induces growth, and in combination with reduced serum, or with the growth factors FGF and platelet-derived growth factor-AB, S1P has an enhancing effect on growth. We also show that the MSCs cultured in S1P-supplemented media are able to maintain their differentiation potential for at least as long as that for cells grown in the usual serum-containing media. This is shown by the ability of cells grown in S1P-containing media to be able to undergo osteogenic as well as adipogenic differentiation. This is of interest, since S1P is a relatively inexpensive natural product, which can be obtained in homogeneous high-purity batches: this will minimize costs and potentially reduce the unwanted side effects observed with serum. Taken together, S1P is able to induce proliferation while maintaining the multipotency of different human stem cells, suggesting a potential for S1P in developing serum-free or serum-reduced defined medium for adult stem cell cultures.

Port of Brisbane stormwater quality : stage 1 rainfall simulation to evaluate pollutant build-up and wash-off from selected land uses

Background: The quality of stormwater runoff from ports is significant as it can be an important source of pollution to the marine environment. This is also a significant issue for the Port of Brisbane as it is located in an area of high environmental values. Therefore, it is imperative to develop an in-depth understanding of stormwater runoff quality to ensure that appropriate strategies are in place for quality improvement. ---------------- The Port currently has a network of stormwater sample collection points where event based samples together with grab samples are tested for a range of water quality parameters. Whilst this information provides a ‘snapshot’ of the pollutants being washed from the catchment/s, it does not allow for a quantifiable assessment of total contaminant loads being discharged to the waters of Moreton Bay. It also does not represent pollutant build-up and wash-off from the different land uses across a broader range of rainfall events which might be expected. As such, it is difficult to relate stormwater quality to different pollutant sources within the Port environment. ----------------- Consequently, this would make the source tracking of pollutants to receiving waters extremely difficult and in turn the ability to implement appropriate mitigation measures. Also, without this detailed understanding, the efficacy of the various stormwater quality mitigation measures implemented cannot be determined with certainty. --------------- Current knowledge on port stormwater runoff quality Currently, little knowledge exists with regards to the pollutant generation capacity specific to port land uses as these do not necessarily compare well with conventional urban industrial or commercial land use due to the specific nature of port activities such as inter-modal operations and cargo management. Furthermore, traffic characteristics in a port area are different to a conventional urban area. Consequently, as data inputs based on an industrial and commercial land uses for modelling purposes is questionable. ------------------ A comprehensive review of published research failed to locate any investigations undertaken with regards to pollutant build-up and wash-off for port specific land uses. Furthermore, there is very limited information made available by various ports worldwide about the pollution generation potential of their facilities. Published work in this area has essentially focussed on the water quality or environmental values in the receiving waters such as the downstream bay or estuary. ----------------- The Project: The research project is an outcome of the collaborative Partnership between the Port of Brisbane Corporation (POBC) and Queensland University of Technology (QUT). A key feature of this Partnership is the undertaking of ‘cutting edge’ research to strengthen the environmental custodianship of the Port area. This project aims to develop a port specific stormwater quality model to allow informed decision making in relation to stormwater quality improvement in the context of the increased growth of the Port. --------------- Stage 1 of the research project focussed on the assessment of pollutant build-up and wash-off using rainfall simulation from the current Port of Brisbane facilities with the longer-term objective of contributing to the development of ecological risk mitigation strategies for future expansion scenarios. Investigation of complex processes such as pollutant wash-off using naturally occurring rainfall events has inherent difficulties. These can be overcome using simulated rainfall for the investigations. ----------------- The deliverables for Stage 1 included the following: * Pollutant build-up and wash-off profiles for six primary land uses within the Port of Brisbane to be used for water quality model development. * Recommendations with regards to future stormwater quality monitoring and pollution mitigation measures. The outcomes are expected to deliver the following benefits to the Port of Brisbane: * The availability of Port specific pollutant build-up and wash-off data will enable the implementation of customised stormwater pollution mitigation strategies. * The water quality data collected would form the baseline data for a Port specific water quality model for mitigation and predictive purposes. * To be at the cutting-edge in terms of water quality management and environmental best practice in the context of port infrastructure. ---------------- Conclusions: The important conclusions from the study are: * It confirmed that the Port environment is unique in terms of pollutant characteristics and is not comparable to typical urban land uses. * For most pollutant types, the Port land uses exhibited lower pollutant concentrations when compared to typical urban land uses. * The pollutant characteristics varied across the different land uses and were not consistent in terms of the land use. Hence, the implementation of stereotypical structural water quality improvement devices could be of limited value. * The <150m particle size range was predominant in suspended solids for pollutant build-up as well as wash-off. Therefore, if suspended solids are targeted as the surrogate parameter for water quality improvement, this specific particle size range needs to be removed. ------------------- Recommendations: Based on the study results the following preliminary recommendations are made: * Due to the appreciable variation in pollutant characteristics for different port land uses, any water quality monitoring stations should preferably be located such that source areas can be easily identified. * The study results having identified significant pollutants for the different land uses should enable the development of a more customised water quality monitoring and testing regime targeting the critical pollutants. * A ‘one size fits all’ approach may not be appropriate for the different port land uses due to the varying pollutant characteristics. As such, pollution mitigation will need to be specifically tailored to suit the specific land use. * Any structural measures implemented for pollution mitigation to be effective should have the capability to remove suspended solids of size <150m. * Based on the results presented and the particularly the fact that the Port land uses cannot be compared to conventional urban land uses in relation to pollutant generation, consideration should be given to the development of a port specific water quality model.

Development of patient-specific computer simulation tools for endoscopic scoliosis surgery

Endoscopic approaches for anterior correction of idiopathic scoliosis are a relatively new surgical technique. This paper describes the development of patient-specific finite element modelling techniques to investigate the biomechanics of single rod anterior scoliosis correction. Spinal geometry is obtained from pre-operative CT scans and material properties for osteo-ligamentous spinal tissues are based on existing literature. The techniques being developed will allow pre-surgical prediction of stresses, forces and deformations in spinal tissues, rods and screws under post-operative physiological loads.

Improved functional ability and independence in activities of daily living for older adults at high risk of hospital readmission : a randomised controlled trial

Objective: During hospitalisation older people often experience functional decline which impacts on their future independence. The objective of this study was to evaluate a multifaceted transitional care intervention including home-based exercise strategies for at-risk older people on functional status, independence in activities of daily living, and walking ability. Methods: A randomised controlled trial was undertaken in a metropolitan hospital in Australia with 128 patients (64 intervention, 64 control) aged over 65 years with an acute medical admission and at least one risk factor for hospital readmission. The intervention group received an individually tailored program for exercise and follow-up care which was commenced in hospital and included regular visits in hospital by a physiotherapist and a Registered Nurse, a home visit following discharge, and regular telephone follow-up for 24 weeks following discharge. The program was designed to improve health promoting behaviours, strength, stability, endurance and mobility. Data were collected at baseline, then 4, 12 and 24 weeks following discharge using the Index of Activities of Daily Living (ADL), Instrumental Index of Activities of Daily Living (IADL), and the Walking Impairment Questionnaire (Modified). Results: Significant improvements were found in the intervention group in IADL scores (p<.001), ADL scores (p<.001), and WIQ scale scores (p<.001) in comparison to the control group. The greatest improvements were found in the first four weeks following discharge. Conclusions: Early introduction of a transitional model of care incorporating a tailored exercise program and regular telephone follow-up for hospitalised at-risk older adults can improve independence and functional ability.

An identification of factors influencing police workplace motivation

Police work tasks are diverse and require the ability to take command, demonstrate leadership, make serious decisions and be self directed (Beck, 1999; Brunetto & Farr-Wharton, 2002; Howard, Donofrio & Boles, 2002). This work is usually performed in pairs or sometimes by an officer working alone. Operational police work is seldom performed under the watchful eyes of a supervisor and a great amount of reliance is placed on the high levels of motivation and professionalism of individual officers. Research has shown that highly motivated workers produce better outcomes (Whisenand & Rush, 1998; Herzberg, 2003). It is therefore important that Queensland police officers are highly motivated to provide a quality service to the Queensland community. This research aims to identify factors which motivate Queensland police to perform quality work. Researchers acknowledge that there is a lack of research and knowledge in regard to the factors which motivate police (Beck, 1999; Bragg, 1998; Howard, Donofrio & Boles, 2002; McHugh & Verner, 1998). The motivational factors were identified in regard to the demographic variables of; age, sex, rank, tenure and education. The model for this research is Herzberg’s two-factor theory of workplace motivation (1959). Herzberg found that there are two broad types of workplace motivational factors; those driven by a need to prevent loss or harm and those driven by a need to gain personal satisfaction or achievement. His study identified 16 basic sub-factors that operate in the workplace. The research utilised a questionnaire instrument based on the sub-factors identified by Herzberg (1959). The questionnaire format consists of an initial section which sought demographic information about the participant and is followed by 51 Likert scale questions. The instrument is an expanded version of an instrument previously used in doctoral studies to identify sources of police motivation (Holden, 1980; Chiou, 2004). The questionnaire was forwarded to approximately 960 police in the Brisbane, Metropolitan North Region. The data were analysed using Factor Analysis, MANOVAs, ANOVAs and multiple regression analysis to identify the key sources of police motivation and to determine the relationships between demographic variables such as: age, rank, educational level, tenure, generation cohort and motivational factors. A total of 484 officers responded to the questionnaire from the sample population of 960. Factor analysis revealed five broad Prime Motivational Factors that motivate police in their work. The Prime Motivational Factors are: Feeling Valued, Achievement, Workplace Relationships, the Work Itself and Pay and Conditions. The factor Feeling Valued highlighted the importance of positive supportive leaders in motivating officers. Many officers commented that supervisors who only provided negative feedback diminished their sense of feeling valued and were a key source of de-motivation. Officers also frequently commented that they were motivated by operational police work itself whilst demonstrating a strong sense of identity with their team and colleagues. The study showed a general need for acceptance by peers and an idealistic motivation to assist members of the community in need and protect victims of crime. Generational cohorts were not found to exert a significant influence on police motivation. The demographic variable with the single greatest influence on police motivation was tenure. Motivation levels were found to drop dramatically during the first two years of an officer’s service and generally not improve significantly until near retirement age. The findings of this research provide the foundation of a number of recommendations in regard to police retirement, training and work allocation that are aimed to improve police motivation levels. The five Prime Motivational Factor model developed in this study is recommended for use as a planning tool by police leaders to improve motivational and job-satisfaction components of police Service policies. The findings of this study also provide a better understanding of the current sources of police motivation. They are expected to have valuable application for Queensland police human resource management when considering policies and procedures in the areas of motivation, stress reduction and attracting suitable staff to specific areas of responsibility.

Structural equation model of construction contract dispute potential

This paper presents the results of a structural equation model (SEM) for describing and quantifying the fundamental factors that affect contract disputes between owners and contractors in the construction industry. Through this example, the potential impact of SEM analysis in construction engineering and management research is illustrated. The purpose of the specific model developed in this research is to explain how and why contract related construction problems occur. This study builds upon earlier work, which developed a disputes potential index, and the likelihood of construction disputes was modeled using logistic regression. In this earlier study, questionnaires were completed on 159 construction projects, which measured both qualitative and quantitative aspects of contract disputes, management ability, financial planning, risk allocation, and project scope definition for both owners and contractors. The SEM approach offers several advantages over the previously employed logistic regression methodology. The final set of structural equations provides insight into the interaction of the variables that was not apparent in the original logistic regression modeling methodology.

Physiological investigation of periosteum structure and its application in periosteum tissue engineering

Although many different materials, techniques and methods, including artificial or engineered bone substitutes, have been used to repair various bone defects, the restoration of critical-sized bone defects caused by trauma, surgery or congenital malformation is still a great challenge to orthopedic surgeons. One important fact that has been neglected in the pursuit of resolutions for large bone defect healing is that most physiological bone defect healing needs the periosteum and stripping off the periosteum may result in non-union or non-healed bone defects. Periosteum plays very important roles not only in bone development but also in bone defect healing. The purpose of this project was to construct a functional periosteum in vitro using a single stem cell source and then test its ability to aid the repair of critical-sized bone defect in animal models. This project was designed with three separate but closely-linked parts which in the end led to four independent papers. The first part of this study investigated the structural and cellular features in periostea from diaphyseal and metaphyseal bone surfaces in rats of different ages or with osteoporosis. Histological and immunohistological methods were used in this part of the study. Results revealed that the structure and cell populations in periosteum are both age-related and site-specific. The diaphyseal periosteum showed age-related degeneration, whereas the metaphyseal periosteum is more destructive in older aged rats. The periosteum from osteoporotic bones differs from normal bones both in terms of structure and cell populations. This is especially evident in the cambial layer of the metaphyseal area. Bone resorption appears to be more active in the periosteum from osteoporotic bones, whereas bone formation activity is comparable between the osteoporotic and normal bone. The dysregulation of bone resorption and formation in the periosteum may also be the effect of the interaction between various neural pathways and the cell populations residing within it. One of the most important aspects in periosteum engineering is how to introduce new blood vessels into the engineered periosteum to help form vascularized bone tissues in bone defect areas. The second part of this study was designed to investigate the possibility of differentiating bone marrow stromal cells (BMSCs) into the endothelial cells and using them to construct vascularized periosteum. The endothelial cell differentiation of BMSCs was induced in pro-angiogenic media under both normoxia and CoCl2 (hypoxia-mimicking agent)-induced hypoxia conditions. The VEGF/PEDF expression pattern, endothelial cell specific marker expression, in vitro and in vivo vascularization ability of BMSCs cultured in different situations were assessed. Results revealed that BMSCs most likely cannot be differentiated into endothelial cells through the application of pro-angiogenic growth factors or by culturing under CoCl2-induced hypoxic conditions. However, they may be involved in angiogenesis as regulators under both normoxia and hypoxia conditions. Two major angiogenesis-related growth factors, VEGF (pro-angiogenic) and PEDF (anti-angiogenic) were found to have altered their expressions in accordance with the extracellular environment. BMSCs treated with the hypoxia-mimicking agent CoCl2 expressed more VEGF and less PEDF and enhanced the vascularization of subcutaneous implants in vivo. Based on the findings of the second part, the CoCl2 pre-treated BMSCs were used to construct periosteum, and the in vivo vascularization and osteogenesis of the constructed periosteum were assessed in the third part of this project. The findings of the third part revealed that BMSCs pre-treated with CoCl2 could enhance both ectopic and orthotopic osteogenesis of BMSCs-derived osteoblasts and vascularization at the early osteogenic stage, and the endothelial cells (HUVECs), which were used as positive control, were only capable of promoting osteogenesis after four-weeks. The subcutaneous area of the mouse is most likely inappropriate for assessing new bone formation on collagen scaffolds. This study demonstrated the potential application of CoCl2 pre-treated BMSCs in the tissue engineering not only for periosteum but also bone or other vascularized tissues. In summary, the structure and cell populations in periosteum are age-related, site-specific and closely linked with bone health status. BMSCs as a stem cell source for periosteum engineering are not endothelial cell progenitors but regulators, and CoCl2-treated BMSCs expressed more VEGF and less PEDF. These CoCl2-treated BMSCs enhanced both vascularization and osteogenesis in constructed periosteum transplanted in vivo.

The effects of L1 orthography on processing an artificial logographic script

To date, studies have focused on the acquisition of alphabetic second languages (L2s) in alphabetic first language (L1) users, demonstrating significant transfer effects. The present study examined the process from a reverse perspective, comparing logographic (Mandarin-Chinese) and alphabetic (English) L1 users in the acquisition of an artificial logographic script, in order to determine whether similar language-specific advantageous transfer effects occurred. English monolinguals, English-French bilinguals and Chinese-English bilinguals learned a small set of symbols in an artificial logographic script and were subsequently tested on their ability to process this script in regard to three main perspectives: L2 reading, L2 working memory (WM), and inner processing strategies. In terms of L2 reading, a lexical decision task on the artificial symbols revealed markedly faster response times in the Chinese-English bilinguals, indicating a logographic transfer effect suggestive of a visual processing advantage. A syntactic decision task evaluated the degree to which the new language was mastered beyond the single word level. No L1-specific transfer effects were found for artificial language strings. In order to investigate visual processing of the artificial logographs further, a series of WM experiments were conducted. Artificial logographs were recalled under concurrent auditory and visuo-spatial suppression conditions to disrupt phonological and visual processing, respectively. No L1-specific transfer effects were found, indicating no visual processing advantage of the Chinese-English bilinguals. However, a bilingual processing advantage was found indicative of a superior ability to control executive functions. In terms of L1 WM, the Chinese-English bilinguals outperformed the alphabetic L1 users when processing L1 words, indicating a language experience-specific advantage. Questionnaire data on the cognitive strategies that were deployed during the acquisition and processing of the artificial logographic script revealed that the Chinese-English bilinguals rated their inner speech as lower than the alphabetic L1 users, suggesting that they were transferring their phonological processing skill set to the acquisition and use of an artificial script. Overall, evidence was found to indicate that language learners transfer specific L1 orthographic processing skills to L2 logographic processing. Additionally, evidence was also found indicating that a bilingual history enhances cognitive performance in L2.