965 resultados para Spatial load forecasting
Resumo:
With new developments in battery technologies, increasing application of Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) in power system is anticipated in near future. BESS has already been used for primary frequency regulation in the past. This paper examines the feasibility of using BESS with load shedding, in application for large disturbances in power system. Load shedding is one of the conventional ways during large disturbances, and the performance of frequency control will increase in combination with BESS application. According to the latest news, BESS which are applied in high power side will be employed in practice in next 5 year. A simple low order SMR model is used as a test system, while an incremental model of BESS is applied in this paper. As continuous disturbances are not the main concern in this paper, df/dt is not considered in article.
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This paper proposes a new distributed coordination approach to make load leveling, using Energy Storage Units (ESUs) in LV network. The proposed distributed control strategy is based on consensus algorithm which shares the required active power equally among the ESUs with respect to their rating. To show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, a typical radial LV network is simulated as a case study.
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This paper presents a new method to determine feeder reconfiguration scheme considering variable load profile. The objective function consists of system losses, reliability costs and also switching costs. In order to achieve an optimal solution the proposed method compares these costs dynamically and determines when and how it is reasonable to have a switching operation. The proposed method divides a year into several equal time periods, then using particle swarm optimization (PSO), optimal candidate configurations for each period are obtained. System losses and customer interruption cost of each configuration during each period is also calculated. Then, considering switching cost from a configuration to another one, dynamic programming algorithm (DPA) is used to determine the annual reconfiguration scheme. Several test systems were used to validate the proposed method. The obtained results denote that to have an optimum solution it is necessary to compare operation costs dynamically.
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An important aspect of decision support systems involves applying sophisticated and flexible statistical models to real datasets and communicating these results to decision makers in interpretable ways. An important class of problem is the modelling of incidence such as fire, disease etc. Models of incidence known as point processes or Cox processes are particularly challenging as they are ‘doubly stochastic’ i.e. obtaining the probability mass function of incidents requires two integrals to be evaluated. Existing approaches to the problem either use simple models that obtain predictions using plug-in point estimates and do not distinguish between Cox processes and density estimation but do use sophisticated 3D visualization for interpretation. Alternatively other work employs sophisticated non-parametric Bayesian Cox process models, but do not use visualization to render interpretable complex spatial temporal forecasts. The contribution here is to fill this gap by inferring predictive distributions of Gaussian-log Cox processes and rendering them using state of the art 3D visualization techniques. This requires performing inference on an approximation of the model on a discretized grid of large scale and adapting an existing spatial-diurnal kernel to the log Gaussian Cox process context.
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A spatial process observed over a lattice or a set of irregular regions is usually modeled using a conditionally autoregressive (CAR) model. The neighborhoods within a CAR model are generally formed deterministically using the inter-distances or boundaries between the regions. An extension of CAR model is proposed in this article where the selection of the neighborhood depends on unknown parameter(s). This extension is called a Stochastic Neighborhood CAR (SNCAR) model. The resulting model shows flexibility in accurately estimating covariance structures for data generated from a variety of spatial covariance models. Specific examples are illustrated using data generated from some common spatial covariance functions as well as real data concerning radioactive contamination of the soil in Switzerland after the Chernobyl accident.
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Significant attention has been given in urban policy literature to the integration of land-use and transport planning and policies—with a view to curbing sprawling urban form and diminishing externalities associated with car-dependent travel patterns. By taking land-use and transport interaction into account, this debate mainly focuses on how a successful integration can contribute to societal well-being, providing efficient and balanced economic growth while accomplishing the goal of developing sustainable urban environments and communities. The integration is also a focal theme of contemporary urban development models, such as smart growth, liveable neighbourhoods, and new urbanism. Even though available planning policy options for ameliorating urban form and transport-related externalities have matured—owing to growing research and practice worldwide—there remains a lack of suitable evaluation models to reflect on the current status of urban form and travel problems or on the success of implemented integration policies. In this study we explore the applicability of indicator-based spatial indexing to assess land-use and transport integration at the neighbourhood level. For this, a spatial index is developed by a number of indicators compiled from international studies and trialled in Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia. The results of this modelling study reveal that it is possible to propose an effective metric to determine the success level of city plans considering their sustainability performance via composite indicator methodology. The model proved useful in demarcating areas where planning intervention is applicable, and in identifying the most suitable locations for future urban development and plan amendments. Lastly, we integrate variance-based sensitivity analysis with the spatial indexing method, and discuss the applicability of the model in other urban contexts.
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In Thomas Mann’s tetralogy of the 1930s and 1940s, Joseph and His Brothers, the narrator declares history is not only “that which has happened and that which goes on happening in time,” but it is also “the stratified record upon which we set our feet, the ground beneath us.” By opening up history to its spatial, geographical, and geological dimensions Mann both predicts and encapsulates the twentieth-century’s “spatial turn,” a critical shift that divested geography of its largely passive role as history’s “stage” and brought to the fore intersections between the humanities and the earth sciences. In this paper, I draw out the relationships between history, narrative, geography, and geology revealed by this spatial turn and the questions these pose for thinking about the disciplinary relationship between geography and the humanities. As Mann’s statement exemplifies, the spatial turn itself has often been captured most strikingly in fiction, and I would argue nowhere more so than in Graham Swift’s Waterland (1983) and Anne Michaels’s Fugitive Pieces (1996), both of which present space, place, and landscape as having a palpable influence on history and memory. The geographical/geological line that runs through both Waterland and Fugitive Pieces continues through Tim Robinson’s non-fictional, two-volume “topographical” history Stones of Aran. Robinson’s Stones of Aran—which is not history, not geography, and not literature, and yet is all three—constructs an imaginative geography that renders inseparable geography, geology, history, memory, and the act of writing.
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This essay argues that the deployment of spatial metaphor in the writing of Michel Foucault is indivisible from his spatial politics. Beginning with his 1967 essay "Of Other Spaces," the development of Foucault's spatial politics and his growing awareness of the importance to his work of spatial (particularly geographic) metaphors can be charted. The focus here is not the concretisation of Foucault's early spatial obsessions—particularly with regard to the concept of "heterotopia"—into a theory or model. Rather, I am concerned with the way in which those obsessions inform Foucault's major works, in particular The Archaeology of Knowledge and Discipline and Punish. These works, I argue, do not develop a theory of space, but instead perform, through their rhetoric, a kind of spatial praxis. In this sense, Foucault's metaphors become "spatial techniques" for the practice and production of power–knowledge.
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This thesis is the first comprehensive study of important parameters relating to aerosols' impact on climate and human health, namely spatial variation, particle size distribution and new particle formation. We determined the importance of spatial variation of particle number concentration in microscale environments, developed a method for particle size parameterisation and provided knowledge about the chemistry of new particle formation. This is a significant contribution to our understanding of processes behind the transformation and dynamics of urban aerosols. This PhD project included extensive measurements of air quality parameters using state of the art instrumentation at each of the 25 sites within the Brisbane metropolitan area and advanced statistical analysis.
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Change is something that both pre-service and practising teachers face regularly throughout their professional lives. Curriculum change and consequential implementation is a case in point. This paper investigates the perspectives of a number of school-based stakeholders in regard to the implementation of the C2C materials in Queensland schools and how this has potential consequences for teacher education programs. It shows that often contradictory spaces emerge in regard to curriculum enactment and argues that a ‘one size fits all’ approach is not the most effective way to implement new curriculum. A transformative third space is offered whereby teachers are accorded with a voice in the way in which implementation occurs; ultimately allowing pre-service teachers to learn important skills required to be effective teachers.
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Feral pigs occur throughout tropical far north Queensland, Australia and are a significant threat to biodiversity and World Heritage values, agriculture and are a vector of infectious diseases. One of the constraints on long-lasting, local eradication of feral pigs is the process of reinvasion into recently controlled areas. This study examined the population genetic structure of feral pigs in far north Queensland to identify the extent of movement and the scale at which demographically independent management units exist. Genetic analysis of 328 feral pigs from the Innisfail to Tully region of tropical Queensland was undertaken. Seven microsatellite loci were screened and Bayesian clustering methods used to infer population clusters. Sequence variation at the mitochondrial DNA control region was examined to identify pig breed. Significant population structure was identified in the study area at a scale of 25 to 35 km, corresponding to three demographically independent management units (MUs). Distinct natural or anthropogenic barriers were not found, but environmental features such as topography and land use appear to influence patterns of gene flow. Despite the strong, overall pattern of structure, some feral pigs clearly exhibited ancestry from a MU outside of that from which they were sampled indicating isolated long distance dispersal or translocation events. Furthermore, our results suggest that gene flow is restricted among pigs of domestic Asian and European origin and non-random mating influences management unit boundaries. We conclude that the three MUs identified in this study should be considered as operational units for feral pig control in far north Queensland. Within a MU, coordinated and simultaneous control is required across farms, rainforest areas and National Park Estates to prevent recolonisation from adjacent localities.
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LiteSteel beam (LSB) is a new cold-formed steel hollow flange channel section produced using a patented manufacturing process involving simultaneous cold-forming and dual electric resistance welding. The LSBs were commonly used as floor joists and bearers with web openings in residential, industrial and commercial buildings. Due to the unique geometry of LSBs, as well as its unique residual stress characteristics and initial geometric imperfections resultant of manufacturing processes, much of the existing research for common cold-formed steel sections is not directly applicable to LSBs. Many research studies have been carried out to evaluate the behaviour and design of LSBs subject to pure bending actions, predominant shear and combined actions. However, to date, no investigation has been conducted into the web crippling behaviour and strength of LSB sections. Hence detailed experimental studies were conducted to investigate the web crippling behaviour and strengths of LSBs under EOF (End One Flange) and IOF (Interior One Flange) load cases. A total of 26 web crippling tests was conducted and the results were compared with current AS/NZS 4600 design rules. This comparison showed that AS/NZS 4600 (SA, 2005) design rules are very conservative for LSB sections under EOF and IOF load cases. Suitable design equations have been proposed to determine the web crippling capacity of LSBs based on experimental results. This paper presents the details of this experimental study on the web crippling behaviour and strengths of LiteSteel beams under EOF and IOF load cases.
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This paper presents the details of an experimental study of a cold-formed steel hollow flange channel beam known as LiteSteel Beam (LSB) subject to web crippling actions (ETF and ITF). Due to the geometry of the LSB, as well as its unique residual stress characteristics and initial geometric imperfections resultant of manufacturing processes, much of the existing research for common cold-formed steel sections is not directly applicable to LSB. Experimental and numerical studies have been carried out to evaluate the behaviour and design of LSBs subject to pure bending actions, predominant shear actions and combined actions. To date, however, no investigation has been conducted into the web crippling behaviour and strength of LSB sections under ETF and ITF load conditions. Hence experimental studies were conducted to assess the web crippling behaviour and strengths of LSBs. Twenty eight web crippling tests were conducted and the results were compared with the current AS/NZS 4600[1] and AISI S100 [2]design equations. Comparison of the ultimate web crippling capacities from tests showed that AS/NZS 4600[1] and AISI S100 [2] design equations are unconservative for LSB sections under ETF and ITF load cases. Hence new equations were proposed to determine the web crippling capacities of LSBs. Suitable design rules were also developed under the DSM format.
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Techniques for evaluating and selecting multivariate volatility forecasts are not yet understood as well as their univariate counterparts. This paper considers the ability of different loss functions to discriminate between a set of competing forecasting models which are subsequently applied in a portfolio allocation context. It is found that a likelihood-based loss function outperforms its competitors, including those based on the given portfolio application. This result indicates that considering the particular application of forecasts is not necessarily the most effective basis on which to select models.