882 resultados para Simulation and prediction


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We model nongraphitized carbon black surfaces and investigate adsorption of argon on these surfaces by using the grand canonical Monte Carlo simulation. In this model, the nongraphitized surface is modeled as a stack of graphene layers with some carbon atoms of the top graphene layer being randomly removed. The percentage of the surface carbon atoms being removed and the effective size of the defect ( created by the removal) are the key parameters to characterize the nongraphitized surface. The patterns of adsorption isotherm and isosteric heat are particularly studied, as a function of these surface parameters as well as pressure and temperature. It is shown that the adsorption isotherm shows a steplike behavior on a perfect graphite surface and becomes smoother on nongraphitized surfaces. Regarding the isosteric heat versus loading, we observe for the case of graphitized thermal carbon black the increase of heat in the submonolayer coverage and then a sharp decline in the heat when the second layer is starting to form, beyond which it increases slightly. On the other hand, the isosteric heat versus loading for a highly nongraphitized surface shows a general decline with respect to loading, which is due to the energetic heterogeneity of the surface. It is only when the fluid-fluid interaction is greater than the surface energetic factor that we see a minimum-maximum in the isosteric heat versus loading. These simulation results of isosteric heat agree well with the experimental results of graphitization of Spheron 6 (Polley, M. H.; Schaeffer, W. D.; Smith, W. R. J. Phys. Chem. 1953, 57, 469; Beebe, R. A.; Young, D. M. J. Phys. Chem. 1954, 58, 93). Adsorption isotherms and isosteric heat in pores whose walls have defects are also studied from the simulation, and the pattern of isotherm and isosteric heat could be used to identify the fingerprint of the surface.

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Background: The structure of proteins may change as a result of the inherent flexibility of some protein regions. We develop and explore probabilistic machine learning methods for predicting a continuum secondary structure, i.e. assigning probabilities to the conformational states of a residue. We train our methods using data derived from high-quality NMR models. Results: Several probabilistic models not only successfully estimate the continuum secondary structure, but also provide a categorical output on par with models directly trained on categorical data. Importantly, models trained on the continuum secondary structure are also better than their categorical counterparts at identifying the conformational state for structurally ambivalent residues. Conclusion: Cascaded probabilistic neural networks trained on the continuum secondary structure exhibit better accuracy in structurally ambivalent regions of proteins, while sustaining an overall classification accuracy on par with standard, categorical prediction methods.

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The identification of disease clusters in space or space-time is of vital importance for public health policy and action. In the case of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), it is particularly important to distinguish between community and health care-associated infections, and to identify reservoirs of infection. 832 cases of MRSA in the West Midlands (UK) were tested for clustering and evidence of community transmission, after being geo-located to the centroids of UK unit postcodes (postal areas roughly equivalent to Zip+4 zip code areas). An age-stratified analysis was also carried out at the coarser spatial resolution of UK Census Output Areas. Stochastic simulation and kernel density estimation were combined to identify significant local clusters of MRSA (p<0.025), which were supported by SaTScan spatial and spatio-temporal scan. In order to investigate local sampling effort, a spatial 'random labelling' approach was used, with MRSA as cases and MSSA (methicillin-sensitive S. aureus) as controls. Heavy sampling in general was a response to MRSA outbreaks, which in turn appeared to be associated with medical care environments. The significance of clusters identified by kernel estimation was independently supported by information on the locations and client groups of nursing homes, and by preliminary molecular typing of isolates. In the absence of occupational/ lifestyle data on patients, the assumption was made that an individual's location and consequent risk is adequately represented by their residential postcode. The problems of this assumption are discussed, with recommendations for future data collection.

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Two types of prediction problem can be solved using a regression line viz., prediction of the ‘population’ regression line at the point ‘x’ and prediction of an ‘individual’ new member of the population ‘y1’ for which ‘x1’ has been measured. The second problem is probably the most commonly encountered and the most relevant to calibration studies. A regression line is likely to be most useful for calibration if the range of values of the X variable is large, if there is a good representation of the ‘x,y’ values across the range of X, and if several estimates of ‘y’ are made at each ‘x’. It is poor statistical practice to use a regression line for calibration or prediction beyond the limits of the data.

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Self-awareness and self-expression are promising architectural concepts for embedded systems to be equipped with to match them with dedicated application scenarios and constraints in the avionic and space-flight industry. Typically, these systems operate in largely undefined environments and are not reachable after deployment for a long time or even never ever again. This paper introduces a reference architecture as well as a novel modelling and simulation environment for self-aware and self-expressive systems with transaction level modelling, simulation and detailed modelling capabilities for hardware aspects, precise process chronology execution as well as fine timing resolutions. Furthermore, industrial relevant system sizes with several self-aware and self-expressive nodes can be handled by the modelling and simulation environment.

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Implementation of a Monte Carlo simulation for the solution of population balance equations (PBEs) requires choice of initial sample number (N0), number of replicates (M), and number of bins for probability distribution reconstruction (n). It is found that Squared Hellinger Distance, H2, is a useful measurement of the accuracy of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, and can be related directly to N0, M, and n. Asymptotic approximations of H2 are deduced and tested for both one-dimensional (1-D) and 2-D PBEs with coalescence. The central processing unit (CPU) cost, C, is found in a power-law relationship, C= aMNb0, with the CPU cost index, b, indicating the weighting of N0 in the total CPU cost. n must be chosen to balance accuracy and resolution. For fixed n, M × N0 determines the accuracy of MC prediction; if b > 1, then the optimal solution strategy uses multiple replications and small sample size. Conversely, if 0 < b < 1, one replicate and a large initial sample size is preferred. © 2015 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 61: 2394–2402, 2015

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Our aim was to approach an important and well-investigable phenomenon – connected to a relatively simple but real field situation – in such a way, that the results of field observations could be directly comparable with the predictions of a simulation model-system which uses a simple mathematical apparatus and to simultaneously gain such a hypothesis-system, which creates the theoretical opportunity for a later experimental series of studies. As a phenomenon of the study, we chose the seasonal coenological changes of aquatic and semiaquatic Heteroptera community. Based on the observed data, we developed such an ecological model-system, which is suitable for generating realistic patterns highly resembling to the observed temporal patterns, and by the help of which predictions can be given to alternative situations of climatic circumstances not experienced before (e.g. climate changes), and furthermore; which can simulate experimental circumstances. The stable coenological state-plane, which was constructed based on the principle of indirect ordination is suitable for unified handling of data series of monitoring and simulation, and also fits for their comparison. On the state-plane, such deviations of empirical and model-generated data can be observed and analysed, which could otherwise remain hidden.

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With the advent of peer to peer networks, and more importantly sensor networks, the desire to extract useful information from continuous and unbounded streams of data has become more prominent. For example, in tele-health applications, sensor based data streaming systems are used to continuously and accurately monitor Alzheimer's patients and their surrounding environment. Typically, the requirements of such applications necessitate the cleaning and filtering of continuous, corrupted and incomplete data streams gathered wirelessly in dynamically varying conditions. Yet, existing data stream cleaning and filtering schemes are incapable of capturing the dynamics of the environment while simultaneously suppressing the losses and corruption introduced by uncertain environmental, hardware, and network conditions. Consequently, existing data cleaning and filtering paradigms are being challenged. This dissertation develops novel schemes for cleaning data streams received from a wireless sensor network operating under non-linear and dynamically varying conditions. The study establishes a paradigm for validating spatio-temporal associations among data sources to enhance data cleaning. To simplify the complexity of the validation process, the developed solution maps the requirements of the application on a geometrical space and identifies the potential sensor nodes of interest. Additionally, this dissertation models a wireless sensor network data reduction system by ascertaining that segregating data adaptation and prediction processes will augment the data reduction rates. The schemes presented in this study are evaluated using simulation and information theory concepts. The results demonstrate that dynamic conditions of the environment are better managed when validation is used for data cleaning. They also show that when a fast convergent adaptation process is deployed, data reduction rates are significantly improved. Targeted applications of the developed methodology include machine health monitoring, tele-health, environment and habitat monitoring, intermodal transportation and homeland security.

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Type systems for secure information flow aim to prevent a program from leaking information from H (high) to L (low) variables. Traditionally, bisimulation has been the prevalent technique for proving the soundness of such systems. This work introduces a new proof technique based on stripping and fast simulation, and shows that it can be applied in a number of cases where bisimulation fails. We present a progressive development of this technique over a representative sample of languages including a simple imperative language (core theory), a multiprocessing nondeterministic language, a probabilistic language, and a language with cryptographic primitives. In the core theory we illustrate the key concepts of this technique in a basic setting. A fast low simulation in the context of transition systems is a binary relation where simulating states can match the moves of simulated states while maintaining the equivalence of low variables; stripping is a function that removes high commands from programs. We show that we can prove secure information flow by arguing that the stripping relation is a fast low simulation. We then extend the core theory to an abstract distributed language under a nondeterministic scheduler. Next, we extend to a probabilistic language with a random assignment command; we generalize fast simulation to the setting of discrete time Markov Chains, and prove approximate probabilistic noninterference. Finally, we introduce cryptographic primitives into the probabilistic language and prove computational noninterference, provided that the underling encryption scheme is secure.

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With the advent of peer to peer networks, and more importantly sensor networks, the desire to extract useful information from continuous and unbounded streams of data has become more prominent. For example, in tele-health applications, sensor based data streaming systems are used to continuously and accurately monitor Alzheimer's patients and their surrounding environment. Typically, the requirements of such applications necessitate the cleaning and filtering of continuous, corrupted and incomplete data streams gathered wirelessly in dynamically varying conditions. Yet, existing data stream cleaning and filtering schemes are incapable of capturing the dynamics of the environment while simultaneously suppressing the losses and corruption introduced by uncertain environmental, hardware, and network conditions. Consequently, existing data cleaning and filtering paradigms are being challenged. This dissertation develops novel schemes for cleaning data streams received from a wireless sensor network operating under non-linear and dynamically varying conditions. The study establishes a paradigm for validating spatio-temporal associations among data sources to enhance data cleaning. To simplify the complexity of the validation process, the developed solution maps the requirements of the application on a geometrical space and identifies the potential sensor nodes of interest. Additionally, this dissertation models a wireless sensor network data reduction system by ascertaining that segregating data adaptation and prediction processes will augment the data reduction rates. The schemes presented in this study are evaluated using simulation and information theory concepts. The results demonstrate that dynamic conditions of the environment are better managed when validation is used for data cleaning. They also show that when a fast convergent adaptation process is deployed, data reduction rates are significantly improved. Targeted applications of the developed methodology include machine health monitoring, tele-health, environment and habitat monitoring, intermodal transportation and homeland security.

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The development of critical thinking and communication skills is an essential part of Baccalaureate and Practical Nursing education. Scenario-based simulation, a form of experiential learning, directly engages students in the learning process. This teaching learning method has been shown to increase students’ understanding of the influence of their personal beliefs and values when working with clients and to improve therapeutic communication and critical thinking skills. Students in both the BN (Collaborative) and PN Programs at the Centre for Nursing Studies demonstrate a strong theoretical understanding of the impact of income and social status on population health but often experience difficulty applying this knowledge to the clinical situations involving clients and families. The purpose of the project was to develop a scenario-based simulation activity to provide nursing students with first-hand experiences of the impact of income and social status on health service accessibility. A literature review and stakeholder consultations were conducted to inform the project. The findings of these initiatives and Kolb’s Experiential Learning Theory were used to guide all aspects of the project. This report is an account of how the income and social status simulation and its accompanying materials were developed. This project provided an excellent learning opportunity that demonstrated the use of advanced nursing competencies.

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In our research we investigate the output accuracy of discrete event simulation models and agent based simulation models when studying human centric complex systems. In this paper we focus on human reactive behaviour as it is possible in both modelling approaches to implement human reactive behaviour in the model by using standard methods. As a case study we have chosen the retail sector, and here in particular the operations of the fitting room in the women wear department of a large UK department store. In our case study we looked at ways of determining the efficiency of implementing new management policies for the fitting room operation through modelling the reactive behaviour of staff and customers of the department. First, we have carried out a validation experiment in which we compared the results from our models to the performance of the real system. This experiment also allowed us to establish differences in output accuracy between the two modelling methods. In a second step a multi-scenario experiment was carried out to study the behaviour of the models when they are used for the purpose of operational improvement. Overall we have found that for our case study example both, discrete event simulation and agent based simulation have the same potential to support the investigation into the efficiency of implementing new management policies.

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Objectives: to evaluate the cognitive learning of nursing students in neonatal clinical evaluation from a blended course with the use of computer and laboratory simulation; to compare the cognitive learning of students in a control and experimental group testing the laboratory simulation; and to assess the extracurricular blended course offered on the clinical assessment of preterm infants, according to the students. Method: a quasi-experimental study with 14 Portuguese students, containing pretest, midterm test and post-test. The technologies offered in the course were serious game e-Baby, instructional software of semiology and semiotechnique, and laboratory simulation. Data collection tools developed for this study were used for the course evaluation and characterization of the students. Nonparametric statistics were used: Mann-Whitney and Wilcoxon. Results: the use of validated digital technologies and laboratory simulation demonstrated a statistically significant difference (p = 0.001) in the learning of the participants. The course was evaluated as very satisfactory for them. The laboratory simulation alone did not represent a significant difference in the learning. Conclusions: the cognitive learning of participants increased significantly. The use of technology can be partly responsible for the course success, showing it to be an important teaching tool for innovation and motivation of learning in healthcare.

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This paper presents a detailed description of the influence of critical parameters that govern the vulnerability of columns under lateral impact loads. Numerical simulations are conducted by using the Finite Element program LS-DYNA, incorporating steel reinforcement, material models and strain rate effects. A simplified method based on impact pulse generated from full scale impact tests is used for impact reconstruction and effects of the various pulse loading parameters are investigated under low to medium velocity impacts. A constitutive material model which can simulate failures under tri-axial state of stresses is used for concrete. Confinement effects are also introduced to the numerical simulation and columns of Grade 30 to 50 concrete under pure axial loading are analysed in detail. This research confirmed that the vulnerability of the axially loaded columns can be mitigated by reducing the slenderness ratio and concrete grade, and by choosing the design option with a minimal amount of longitudinal steel. Additionally, it is evident that approximately a 50% increase in impact capacity can be gained for columns in medium rise buildings by enhancing the confinement effects alone. Results also indicated that the ductility as well as the mode of failure under impact can be changed with the volumetric ratio of lateral steel. Moreover, to increase the impact capacity of the vulnerable columns, a higher confining stress is required. The general provisions of current design codes do not sufficiently cover this aspect and hence this research will provide additional guidelines to overcome the inadequacies of code provisions.

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Introduction: Bone mineral density (BMD) is currently the preferred surrogate for bone strength in clinical practice. Finite element analysis (FEA) is a computer simulation technique that can predict the deformation of a structure when a load is applied, providing a measure of stiffness (Nmm−1). Finite element analysis of X-ray images (3D-FEXI) is a FEA technique whose analysis is derived froma single 2D radiographic image. Methods: 18 excised human femora had previously been quantitative computed tomography scanned, from which 2D BMD-equivalent radiographic images were derived, and mechanically tested to failure in a stance-loading configuration. A 3D proximal femur shape was generated from each 2D radiographic image and used to construct 3D-FEA models. Results: The coefficient of determination (R2%) to predict failure load was 54.5% for BMD and 80.4% for 3D-FEXI. Conclusions: This ex vivo study demonstrates that 3D-FEXI derived from a conventional 2D radiographic image has the potential to significantly increase the accuracy of failure load assessment of the proximal femur compared with that currently achieved with BMD. This approach may be readily extended to routine clinical BMD images derived by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. Crown Copyright © 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of IPEM. All rights reserved