Optimal Correction for Guessing in Multiple-Choice Tests

Building on Item Response Theory we introduce students’ optimal behavior in multiple-choice tests. Our simulations indicate that the optimal penalty is relatively high, because although correction for guessing discriminates against risk-averse subjects, this effect is small compared with the measurement error that the penalty prevents. This result obtains when knowledge is binary or partial, under different normalizations of the score, when risk aversion is related to knowledge and when there is a pass-fail break point. We also find that the mean degree of difficulty should be close to the mean level of knowledge and that the variance of difficulty should be high.

Performance of a Supersonic Model Combustor using Vaporized Kerosene Injection

Characteristics of supersonic combustion by injecting kerosene vapor into a Mach 2.5 crossflow at various preheat temperatures and pressures were investigated experimentally. A two-stage heating system has been designed and tested, which can prepare heated kerosene of 0.8 kg up to 820 K at pressure of 5.5 Mpa with minimum/negligible fuel coking. In order to simulate the thermophysical properties of kerosene over a wide range of thermodynamic conditions, a three-component surrogate that matches the compound class of the parent fuel was employed. The flow rate of kerosene vapor was calibrated using a sonic nozzle. Computed flow rates using the surrogate fuel are in agreement with the experimental data. Kerosene jets at various preheat temperatures injecting into both quiescent environment and Mach 2.5 crossflow were visualized. It was found that at injection pressure of 4 Mpa and preheat temperature of 550 K the kerosene jet was completely in vapor phase, while keeping almost the same penetration depth as compared to the liquid kerosene injection. Supersonic combustion tests were also carried out to compare the combustor performance for the cases of vaporized kerosene injection, liquid kerosene injection, and effervescent atomization with hydrogen barbotage, under the similar stagnation conditions. Experimental results demonstrated that the use of vaporized kerosene injection leads to better combustor performance. Further parametric study on vaporized kerosene injection in a supersonic model combustor is needed to assess the combustion efficiency as well as to identify the controlling mechanism for the overall combustion enhancement.

Investigation of Vaporized Kerosene Injection and Combustion in a Supersonic Model Combustor

Injection and combustion of vaporized kerosene was experimentally investigated in a Mach 2.5 model combustor at various fuel temperatures and injection pressures. A unique kerosene heating and delivery system, which can prepare heated kerosene up to 820 K at a pressure of 5.5 MPa with negligible fuel coking, was developed. A three-species surrogate was employed to simulate the thermophysical properties of kerosene. The calculated thermophysical properties of surrogate provided insight into the fuel flow control in experiments. Kerosene jet structures at various preheat temperatures injecting into both quiescent environment and a Mach 2.5 crossflow were characterized. It was shown that the use ofvaporized kerosene injection holds the potential of enhancing fuel-air mixing and promoting overall burning. Supersonic combustion tests further confirmed the preceding conjecture by comparing the combustor performances of supercritical kerosene with those of liquid kerosene and effervescent atomization with hydrogen barbotage. Under the similar flow conditions and overall kerosene equivalence ratios, experimental results illustrated that the combustion efficiency of supercritical kerosene increased approximately 10-15% over that of liquid kerosene, which was comparable to that of effervescent atomization.

CHARACTERIZATION OF SHEAR BANDS IN TWO BULK METALLIC GLASSES WITH DIFFERENT INHERENT PLASTICITY

Shear banding characterization of Zr64.13Cu15.75Ni10.12Al10 and Zr65Cu15Ni10Al10 bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) with significant difference in inherent plasticity and quite similar chemical composition was studied by depth sensitive macroindentaion tests with conical indenter. Well-developed shear band pattern can be found for both BMGs after indentation. Distinct difference in the shear band spacing, scale of plastic deformation region and the shear band branching in the two BMGs account for the different plasticity.

Relationships between Larval and Juvenile Abundance of Winter-Spawned Fishes in North Carolina, USA

We analyzed the relationships between the larval and juvenile abundances of selected estuarine-dependent fishes that spawn during the winter in continental shelf waters of the U.S. Atlantic coast. Six species were included in the analysis based on their ecological and economic importance and relative abundance in available surveys: spot Leiostomus xanthurus, pinfish Lagodon rhomboides, southern flounder Paralichthys lethostigma, summer flounder Paralichthys dentatus, Atlantic croaker Micropogonias undulatus, and Atlantic menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus. Cross-correlation analysis was used to examine the relationships between the larval and juvenile abundances within species. Tests of synchrony across species were used to find similarities in recruitment dynamics for species with similar winter shelf-spawning life-history strategies. Positive correlations were found between the larval and juvenile abundances for three of the six selected species (spot, pinfish, and southern flounder). These three species have similar geographic ranges that primarily lie south of Cape Hatteras. There were no significant correlations between the larval and juvenile abundances for the other three species (summer flounder, Atlantic croaker, and Atlantic menhaden); we suggest several factors that could account for the lack of a relationship. Synchrony was found among the three southern species within both the larval and juvenile abundance time series. These results provide support for using larval ingress measures as indices of abundance for these and other species with similar geographic ranges and winter shelf-spawning life-history strategies.

A comparison of animal abundance and distribution in similar habitats in Rookery Bay, Marco Island and Fakahatchee on the southwest coast of Florida, 1971 - 1972

The three areas in Rookery Bay, near Marco Island and Fakahatchee Bay were sampled from July 1971 through July 1972, and 1,006,640 individual animals were collected, of which the majority (55%) came from the Marco area. The large disparity between the catches at Marco and the remaining study areas was due mainly to the appearance of high numbers of species of polychaetes and echinoderms that were of very minor importance or absent from the catches in Rookery Bay and Fakahatchee Bay. When only the major classes of animals in the catch are considered (i.e., crustaceans, fish and mollusks) the total counts for Fakahatchee (298,830) and Marco (275,075) are quite comparable but both exceed Rookery Bay (119,388) by a considerable margin. The effects of the red tide outbreak in the summer of 1971 were apparently restricted to the Rookery Bay Sanctuary and may account for some of the observed differences. For the purposes of making controlled comparisons between the study areas, three common habitats were selected in each area so that a mud bottom habitat, a sand-shell bottom habitat and a vegetated bottom habitat were located in each of the study areas. Total catches by habitat types for crustaceans, fish and mollusks and certain of the more abundant species show clearly the overwhelming importance of the vegetated bottom as a habitat for animals. By habitat the vegetated areas had the most "indicator species" with five, the mud habitat was next with three and the sand-shell habitat third with two. Thus the vegetated habitat would be the best choice if a single habitat were to be used to detect environmental changes between study areas. (PDF contains 137 pages)

Magnitude and extent of chemical contamination and toxicity in sediments of Biscayne Bay and vicinity

The toxicity of sediments in Biscayne Bay and many adjoining tributaries was determined as part of a bioeffects assessments program managed by NOAA’s National Status and Trends Program. The objectives of the survey were to determine: (1) the incidence and degree of toxicity of sediments throughout the study area; (2) the spatial patterns (or gradients) in chemical contamination and toxicity, if any, throughout the study area; (3) the spatial extent of chemical contamination and toxicity; and (4) the statistical relationships between measures of toxicity and concentrations of chemicals in the sediments. The survey was designed to characterize sediment quality throughout the greater Biscayne Bay area. Surficial sediment samples were collected during 1995 and 1996 from 226 randomly-chosen locations throughout nine major regions. Laboratory toxicity tests were performed as indicators of potential ecotoxicological effects in sediments. A battery of tests was performed to generate information from different phases (components) of the sediments. Tests were selected to represent a range in toxicological endpoints from acute to chronic sublethal responses. Toxicological tests were conducted to measure: reduced survival of adult amphipods exposed to solid-phase sediments; impaired fertilization success and abnormal morphological development in gametes and embryos, respectively, of sea urchins exposed to pore waters; reduced metabolic activity of a marine bioluminescent bacteria exposed to organic solvent extracts; induction of a cytochrome P-450 reporter gene system in exposures to solvent extracts; and reduced reproductive success in marine copepods exposed to solid-phase sediments. Contamination and toxicity were most severe in several peripheral canals and tributaries, including the lower Miami River, adjoining the main axis of the bay. In the open basins of the bay, chemical concentrations and toxicity generally were higher in areas north of the Rickenbacker Causeway than south of it. Sediments from the main basins of the bay generally were less toxic than those from the adjoining tributaries and canals. The different toxicity tests, however, indicated differences in severity, incidence, spatial patterns, and spatial extent in toxicity. The most sensitive test among those performed on all samples, a bioassay of normal morphological development of sea urchin embryos, indicated toxicity was pervasive throughout the entire study area. The least sensitive test, an acute bioassay performed with a benthic amphipod, indicated toxicity was restricted to a very small percentage of the area. Both the degree and spatial extent of chemical contamination and toxicity in this study area were similar to or less severe than those observed in many other areas in the U.S. The spatial extent of toxicity in all four tests performed throughout the bay were comparable to the “national averages” calculated by NOAA from previous surveys conducted in a similar manner. Several trace metals occurred in concentrations in excess of those expected in reference sediments. Mixtures of substances, including pesticides, petroleum constituents, trace metals, and ammonia, were associated statistically with the measures of toxicity. Substances most elevated in concentration relative to numerical guidelines and associated with toxicity included polychlorinated biphenyls, DDT pesticides, polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, hexachloro cyclohexanes, lead, and mercury. These (and other) substances occurred in concentrations greater than effects-based guidelines in the samples that were most toxic in one or more of the tests. (PDF contains 180 pages)

Chemical contaminants, pathogen exposure and general health status of live and beach-cast Washington sea otters (Enhydra lutris kenyoni)

Analyses of blood and liver samples from live captured sea otters and liver samples from beachcast sea otter carcasses off the remote Washington coast indicate relatively low exposure to contaminants, but suggest that even at the low levels measured, exposure may be indicated by biomarker response. Evidence of pathogen exposure is noteworthy - infectious disease presents a potential risk to Washington sea otters, particularly due to their small population size and limited distribution. During 2001 and 2002, 32 sea otters were captured, of which 28 were implanted with transmitters to track their movements and liver and blood samples were collected to evaluate contaminant and pathogen exposure. In addition, liver samples from fifteen beachcast animals that washed ashore between 1991 and 2002 were analyzed to provide historical information and a basis of reference for values obtained from live otters. The results indicate low levels of metals, butyltins, and organochlorine compounds in the blood samples, with many of the organochlorines not detected except polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and a few aromatic hydrocarbons detected in the liver of the live captured animals. Aliphatic hydrocarbons were measurable in the liver from the live captured animals; however, some of these are likely from biogenic sources. A significant reduction of vitamin A storage in the liver was observed in relation to PCB, dibutyltin and octacosane concentration. A significant and strong positive correlation in vitamin A storage in the liver was observed for cadmium and several of the aliphatic hydrocarbons. Peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) cytochrome P450 induction was elevated in two of 16 animals and may be potentially related to aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbon exposure. Mean concentration of total butyltin in the liver of the Washington beach-cast otters was more than 15 times lower than the mean concentration reported by Kannan et al. (1998) for Southern sea otters in California. Organochlorine compounds were evident in the liver of beach-cast animals, despite the lack of large human population centers and development along the Washington coast. Concentrations of PCBs and chlordanes (e.g., transchlordane, cis-chlordane, trans-nonachlor, cis-nonachlor and oxychlordane) in liver of Washington beach-cast sea otters were similar to those measured in Aleutian and California sea otters, excluding those from Monterey Bay, which were higher. Mean concentrations of 1,1,1,- trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophyenyl)ethanes (DDTs) were lower, and mean concentrations of cyclohexanes (HCH, e.g., alpha BHC, beta BHC, delta BHC and gamma BHC) were slightly higher in Washington beach-cast otters versus those from California and the Aleutians. Epidemiologically, blood tests revealed that 80 percent of the otters tested positive for morbillivirus and 60 percent for Toxoplasma, the latter of which has been a significant cause of mortality in Southern sea otters in California. This is the first finding of positive morbillivirus titers in sea otters from the Northeast Pacific. Individual deaths may occur from these diseases, perhaps more so when animals are otherwise immuno-compromised or infected with multiple diseases, but a population-threatening die-off from these diseases singly is unlikely while population immunity remains high. The high frequency of detection of morbillivirus and Toxoplasma in the live otters corresponds well with the cause of death of stranded Washington sea otters reported herein, which has generally been attributable to infectious disease. Washington’s sea otter population continues to grow, with over 1100 animals currently inhabiting Washington waters; however, the rate of growth has slowed over recent years. The population has a limited distribution and has not yet reached its carrying capacity and as such, is still considered at high risk to catastrophic events. (PDF contains 189 pages)