Modeling the Arctic Freshwater System and its integration in the global system: Lessons learned and future challenges

Numerous components of the Arctic freshwater system (atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, terrestrial hydrology) have experienced large changes over the past few decades, and these changes are projected to amplify further in the future. Observations are particularly sparse, both in time and space, in the Polar Regions. Hence, modeling systems have been widely used and are a powerful tool to gain understanding on the functioning of the Arctic freshwater system and its integration within the global Earth system and climate. Here, we present a review of modeling studies addressing some aspect of the Arctic freshwater system. Through illustrative examples, we point out the value of using a hierarchy of models with increasing complexity and component interactions, in order to dismantle the important processes at play for the variability and changes of the different components of the Arctic freshwater system and the interplay between them. We discuss past and projected changes for the Arctic freshwater system and explore the sources of uncertainty associated with these model results. We further elaborate on some missing processes that should be included in future generations of Earth system models and highlight the importance of better quantification and understanding of natural variability, amongst other factors, for improved predictions of Arctic freshwater system change.

Connecting people and ideas from around the world: global innovation platforms for next-generation ecology and beyond

We present a case for using Global Community Innovation Platforms (GCIPs), an approach to improve innovation and knowledge exchange in international scientific communities through a common and open online infrastructure. We highlight the value of GCIPs by focusing on recent efforts targeting the ecological sciences, where GCIPs are of high relevance given the urgent need for interdisciplinary, geographical, and cross-sector collaboration to cope with growing challenges to the environment as well as the scientific community itself. Amidst the emergence of new international institutions, organizations, and meetings, GCIPs provide a stable international infrastructure for rapid and long-term coordination that can be accessed by any individual. This accessibility can be especially important for researchers early in their careers. Recent examples of early-career GCIPs complement an array of existing options for early-career scientists to improve skill sets, increase academic and social impact, and broaden career opportunities. We provide a number of examples of existing early-career initiatives that incorporate elements from the GCIPs approach, and highlight an in-depth case study from the ecological sciences: the International Network of Next-Generation Ecologists (INNGE), initiated in 2010 with support from the International Association for Ecology and 20 member institutions from six continents.

Origin and fate of surface drift in the oceanic convergence zones of the eastern Pacific

This study investigates the structure and intensity of the surface pathways connecting to and from the central areas of the large-scale convergence regions of the eastern Pacific Ocean. Surface waters are traced with numerical Lagrangian particles transported in the velocity field of three different ocean models with horizontal resolutions that range from ¼° to 1/32°. The connections resulting from the large-scale convergent Ekman dynamics agree qualitatively but are strongly modulated by eddy variability that introduces meridional asymmetry in the amplitude of transport. Lagrangian forward-in-time integrations are used to analyze the fate of particles originating from the central regions of the convergence zones and highlight specific outflows not yet reported for the southeastern Pacific when using the currents at the highest resolutions (1/12° and 1/32°). The meridional scales of these outflows are comparable to the characteristic width of the fine-scale striation of mean currents.

Diurnal temporal patterns of the diversity and the abundance of reef fishes in a branching coral patch in New Caledonia

Small-scale spatial and temporal variability in animal abundance is an intrinsic characteristic of marine ecosystems but remains largely unknown for most animals, including coral reef fishes. In this study, we used a remote autonomous unbaited video system and recorded reef fish assemblages during daylight hours, 10 times a day for 34 consecutive days in a branching coral patch of the lagoon of New Caledonia. In total, 50 031 fish observations belonging to 114 taxa, 66 genera and 31 families were recorded in 256 recorded videos. Carnivores and herbivore-detritus feeders dominated the trophic structure. We found significant variations in the composition of fish assemblages between times of day. Taxa richness and fish abundance were greater in the early morning and in the late afternoon than during the day. Fourteen taxa displayed well-defined temporal patterns in abundance with one taxon influenced by time of day, six influenced by tidal state and seven influenced by both time of day and tidal state. None of these 14 taxa were piscivores, 10 were herbivore-detritus feeders, three were carnivores and one was plankton feeder. Our results suggest a diel migration from feeding grounds to shelter areas and highlight the importance of taking into account small-scale temporal variability in animal diversity and abundance when studying connectivity between habitats and monitoring communities.

Spectra and Laplacian spectra of arbitrary powers of lexicographic products of graphs

Consider two graphs G and H. Let H^k[G] be the lexicographic product of H^k and G, where H^k is the lexicographic product of the graph H by itself k times. In this paper, we determine the spectrum of H^k[G]H and H^k when G and H are regular and the Laplacian spectrum of H^k[G] and H^k for G and H arbitrary. Particular emphasis is given to the least eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix in the case of lexicographic powers of regular graphs, and to the algebraic connectivity and the largest Laplacian eigenvalues in the case of lexicographic powers of arbitrary graphs. This approach allows the determination of the spectrum (in case of regular graphs) and Laplacian spectrum (for arbitrary graphs) of huge graphs. As an example, the spectrum of the lexicographic power of the Petersen graph with the googol number (that is, 10^100 ) of vertices is determined. The paper finishes with the extension of some well known spectral and combinatorial invariant properties of graphs to its lexicographic powers.

Integrin traffic and signalling – from plasma membrane to endosomes

Integrins are the main cell surface receptors by which cells adhere to the surrounding extracellular matrix (ECM). Cells regulate integrin-mediated adhesions by integrin endo/exocytic trafficking or by altering the integrin activation status. Integrin binding to ECM-components induces several intracellular signalling cascades, which regulate almost every aspect of cell behaviour from cell motility to survival, and dysregulation of integrin traffic or signalling is associated with cancer progression. Upon detachment, normal cells undergo a specialised form of programmed cell death namely anoikis and the ECM-integrin -mediated activation of focal adhesion kinase (FAK) signalling at the cell surface has been considered critical for anoikis suppression. Integrins are also constantly endocytosed and recycled back to the plasma membrane, and so far the role of integrin traffic in cancer has been linked to increased adhesion site turnover and cell migration. However, different growth factor receptors are known to signal also from endosomes, but the ability of integrins to signal from endosomes has not been previously studied. In this thesis, I demonstrate for the first time that integrins are signalling also from endosomes. In contrast to previous believes, integrin-induced focal adhesion kinase (FAK) signalling occurs also on endosomes, and the endosomal FAK signalling is critical for anoikis suppression and for cancer related processes such as anchorage-independent growth and metastasis. Moreover, we have set up a new integrin trafficking assay and demonstrate for the first time in a comprehensive manner that active and inactive integrins undergo distinct trafficking routes. Together these results open up new horizons in our understanding of integrins and highlight the fundamental connection between integrin traffic and signalling.

Active Foreground Region Extraction and Tracking for Sports Video Annotation

Automatic video segmentation plays a vital role in sports videos annotation. This paper presents a fully automatic and computationally efficient algorithm for analysis of sports videos. Various methods of automatic shot boundary detection have been proposed to perform automatic video segmentation. These investigations mainly concentrate on detecting fades and dissolves for fast processing of the entire video scene without providing any additional feedback on object relativity within the shots. The goal of the proposed method is to identify regions that perform certain activities in a scene. The model uses some low-level feature video processing algorithms to extract the shot boundaries from a video scene and to identify dominant colours within these boundaries. An object classification method is used for clustering the seed distributions of the dominant colours to homogeneous regions. Using a simple tracking method a classification of these regions to active or static is performed. The efficiency of the proposed framework is demonstrated over a standard video benchmark with numerous types of sport events and the experimental results show that our algorithm can be used with high accuracy for automatic annotation of active regions for sport videos.

I. Quantal effects in biochemical cooperativity and a proposed mechanism for the differentiation of calcium signaling in synaptic plasticity. II. Evolutionary algorithms for the optimization of methods in computational chemistry

In Part 1 of this thesis, we propose that biochemical cooperativity is a fundamentally non-ideal process. We show quantal effects underlying biochemical cooperativity and highlight apparent ergodic breaking at small volumes. The apparent ergodic breaking manifests itself in a divergence of deterministic and stochastic models. We further predict that this divergence of deterministic and stochastic results is a failure of the deterministic methods rather than an issue of stochastic simulations.

Ergodic breaking at small volumes may allow these molecular complexes to function as switches to a greater degree than has previously been shown. We propose that this ergodic breaking is a phenomenon that the synapse might exploit to differentiate Ca$^{2+}$ signaling that would lead to either the strengthening or weakening of a synapse. Techniques such as lattice-based statistics and rule-based modeling are tools that allow us to directly confront this non-ideality. A natural next step to understanding the chemical physics that underlies these processes is to consider \textit{in silico} specifically atomistic simulation methods that might augment our modeling efforts.

In the second part of this thesis, we use evolutionary algorithms to optimize \textit{in silico} methods that might be used to describe biochemical processes at the subcellular and molecular levels. While we have applied evolutionary algorithms to several methods, this thesis will focus on the optimization of charge equilibration methods. Accurate charges are essential to understanding the electrostatic interactions that are involved in ligand binding, as frequently discussed in the first part of this thesis.

Crises and Crisis Generations: International Conflict and Military Participation in Politics

Why do states facing high levels of international threat sometimes have militaries that are heavily involved in politics and at other times relatively apolitical, professional militaries? I argue that the answer to this puzzle lies in a state's history of 'acute' international crises rather than its 'chronic' threat environment. Major international crises lead to professionalization and de-politicization of militaries in both the short- and long-term. International crises underscore the need for the military to defend the state and highlight military deficiencies in this regard. Accordingly, major international crises lead to military professionalization and withdrawal from politics in order to increase military effectiveness. This effect persists years, and decades, later due to generational shifts in the officer corps. As the "Crisis Generation" of officers become generals, they bring with them a preference for professionalization and de-politicization. They guide the military towards abstention from politics. I test this theory using a new global dataset on military officers in national governing bodies from 1964-2008 and find strong support for the theory. Major international crises lead to two waves of military withdrawal from government, years apart. Further statistical analysis finds that this effect is most strongly felt in the non-security areas of governing, while in some cases, international crises may lead to militaries increasing their involvement in security policy-making. Further, international crises that end poorly for a state — i.e., defeats or stalemates — are found to drive more rapid waves of military withdrawal from government. The statistical analysis is supported by a case illustration of civil-military relations in the People's Republic of China, which demonstrates that the crisis of the Korean War (1950-53) led to two waves of military professionalization and de-politicization, decades apart. The first occurred immediately after the war. The second wave, occurring in the 1980s, involved wholesale military withdrawal from governing bodies, which was made possible by the ascent of the "Crisis Generation" of officers in the military, who had served as junior officers in the Korean War, decades prior.

Modelling and analysing cargo screening processes: a project outline

The efficiency of current cargo screening processes at sea and air ports is unknown as no benchmarks exists against which they could be measured. Some manufacturer benchmarks exist for individual sensors but we have not found any benchmarks that take a holistic view of the screening procedures assessing a combination of sensors and also taking operator variability into account. Just adding up resources and manpower used is not an effective way for assessing systems where human decision-making and operator compliance to rules play a vital role. For such systems more advanced assessment methods need to be used, taking into account that the cargo screening process is of a dynamic and stochastic nature. Our project aim is to develop a decision support tool (cargo-screening system simulator) that will map the right technology and manpower to the right commodity-threat combination in order to maximize detection rates. In this paper we present a project outline and highlight the research challenges we have identified so far. In addition we introduce our first case study, where we investigate the cargo screening process at the ferry port in Calais.

Cortisol Awakening Response in Preschoolers and Depression Risk: Relations with Maternal History of Depression and Child Temperament

Increasing research suggests that elevations in the cortisol awakening response (CAR), the natural increase of cortisol 30 to 40 minutes after waking, may serve as a vulnerability marker for depression. However, existing studies have focused on adolescence and adulthood; very little is known about the CAR in early childhood and the factors that are associated with it. The current study aimed to examine the validity of the CAR as a potential early-emerging vulnerability marker for depression in a sample of preschool-age children. We examined associations between the CAR and two well-established risk factors for depression: maternal psychopathology and early child temperament (high negative emotionality (NE) and/or low positive emotionality (PE)). The sample consisted of 146 preschool-age children, of whom 71 (49.3%) had a biological mother with a history of depression and 65 (45.5%) had a biological mother with a history of anxiety. To assess the CAR, salivary cortisol samples were collected from the child upon waking, 30 and 45 minutes post-waking on two weekdays. Children’s CAR was examined as the total volume of cortisol secreted (AUCg) and the total increase in cortisol (AUCi) across waking. Evening cortisol was collected 30 minutes before bedtime. Child temperament was assessed using observational laboratory measures. Maternal depression and anxiety were assessed with clinical interviews. Associations with children’s CAR, as indicated by AUCg or AUCi, appeared to be specific to maternal current psychopathology and symptoms of anhedonia. Additionally, we observed significant interactions for both maternal lifetime and current depression and anxiety, in combination with child NE and PE, on elevated evening cortisol levels and flattened diurnal cortisol rhythms, indicating altered patterns of basal cortisol activity in offspring. Our study contributes to the limited but growing knowledge on the development of the CAR in preschool age children and as a marker of early risk. Findings suggest that there is a complex interplay between familial risk, affective vulnerability, and their joint effects on neuroendocrine dysfunction in young children, and highlight the need for future research to examine which aspects of the early diurnal rhythm predict the emergence of later depressive illness.

Mixed Spatial and Nonspatial Problems in Location Based Services

With hundreds of millions of users reporting locations and embracing mobile technologies, Location Based Services (LBSs) are raising new challenges. In this dissertation, we address three emerging problems in location services, where geolocation data plays a central role. First, to handle the unprecedented growth of generated geolocation data, existing location services rely on geospatial database systems. However, their inability to leverage combined geographical and textual information in analytical queries (e.g. spatial similarity joins) remains an open problem. To address this, we introduce SpsJoin, a framework for computing spatial set-similarity joins. SpsJoin handles combined similarity queries that involve textual and spatial constraints simultaneously. LBSs use this system to tackle different types of problems, such as deduplication, geolocation enhancement and record linkage. We define the spatial set-similarity join problem in a general case and propose an algorithm for its efficient computation. Our solution utilizes parallel computing with MapReduce to handle scalability issues in large geospatial databases. Second, applications that use geolocation data are seldom concerned with ensuring the privacy of participating users. To motivate participation and address privacy concerns, we propose iSafe, a privacy preserving algorithm for computing safety snapshots of co-located mobile devices as well as geosocial network users. iSafe combines geolocation data extracted from crime datasets and geosocial networks such as Yelp. In order to enhance iSafe's ability to compute safety recommendations, even when crime information is incomplete or sparse, we need to identify relationships between Yelp venues and crime indices at their locations. To achieve this, we use SpsJoin on two datasets (Yelp venues and geolocated businesses) to find venues that have not been reviewed and to further compute the crime indices of their locations. Our results show a statistically significant dependence between location crime indices and Yelp features. Third, review centered LBSs (e.g., Yelp) are increasingly becoming targets of malicious campaigns that aim to bias the public image of represented businesses. Although Yelp actively attempts to detect and filter fraudulent reviews, our experiments showed that Yelp is still vulnerable. Fraudulent LBS information also impacts the ability of iSafe to provide correct safety values. We take steps toward addressing this problem by proposing SpiDeR, an algorithm that takes advantage of the richness of information available in Yelp to detect abnormal review patterns. We propose a fake venue detection solution that applies SpsJoin on Yelp and U.S. housing datasets. We validate the proposed solutions using ground truth data extracted by our experiments and reviews filtered by Yelp.

Why resilience managers aren’t resilient, and what human resource management can do about it

Prior resilience research typically focuses on either the individual or the organisational level of analysis, emphasises resilience in relation to day-to-day stressors rather than extreme events and is empirically under-developed. In response, our study inductively theorises about the relationships between individual and organisational resilience, drawing upon a large-scale study of resilience work in UK and French organisations. Our first-hand accounts of resilience work reveal the micro-processes involved in producing resilient organisations, and highlight the challenges experienced in doing resilience work in large organisations. We show that these micro-processes have significant implications for resilience at both individual and organisational levels, and draw implications for how HRM interventions can help to promote individual, and thus organisational, resilience.

A retrospective study examining the nature, contributory factors and predictors of dispensing errors in community pharmacy

Introduction: Since 2005, the workload of community pharmacists in England has increased with a concomitant increase in stress and work pressure. However, it is unclear how these factors are impacting on the ability of community pharmacists to ensure accuracy during the dispensing process. This research seeks to extend our understanding of the nature, outcome, and predictors of dispensing errors. Methodology: A retrospective analysis of a purposive sample of incident report forms (IRFs) from the database of a pharmacist indemnity insurance provider was conducted. Data collected included; type of error, degree of harm caused, pharmacy and pharmacist demographics, and possible contributory factors. Results: In total, 339 files from UK community pharmacies were retrieved from the database. The files dated from June 2006 to November 2011. Incorrect item (45.1%, n = 153/339) followed by incorrect strength (24.5%, n = 83/339) were the most common forms of error. Almost half (41.6%, n = 147/339) of the patients suffered some form of harm ranging from minor harm (26.7%, n = 87/339) to death (0.3%, n = 1/339). Insufficient staff (51.6%, n = 175/339), similar packaging (40.7%, n = 138/339) and the pharmacy being busier than normal (39.5%, n = 134/339) were identified as key contributory factors. Cross-tabular analysis against the final accuracy check variable revealed significant association between the pharmacy location (P < 0.024), dispensary layout (P < 0.025), insufficient staff (P < 0.019), and busier than normal (P < 0.005) variables. Conclusion: The results provide an overview of some of the individual, organisational and technical factors at play at the time of a dispensing error and highlight the need to examine further the relationships between these factors and dispensing error occurrence.

Landscape Patterns of Permafrost Disturbance and Degradation in the Canadian High Arctic

Intensification of permafrost disturbances such as active layer detachments (ALDs) and retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS) have been observed across the circumpolar Arctic. These features are indicators of unstable conditions stemming from recent climate warming and permafrost degradation. In order to understand the processes interacting to give rise to these features, a multidisciplinary approach is required; i.e., interactions between geomorphology, hydrology, vegetation and ground thermal conditions. The goal of this research is to detect and map permafrost disturbance, predict landscape controls over disturbance and determine approaches for monitoring disturbance, all with the goal of contributing to the mitigation of permafrost hazards. Permafrost disturbance inventories were created by applying semi-automatic change detection techniques to IKONOS satellite imagery collected at the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory (CBAWO). These methods provide a means to estimate the spatial distribution of permafrost disturbances for a given area for use as an input in susceptibility modelling. Permafrost disturbance susceptibility models were then developed using generalized additive and generalized linear models (GAM, GLM) fitted to disturbed and undisturbed locations and relevant GIS-derived predictor variables (slope, potential solar radiation, elevation). These models successfully delineated areas across the landscape that were susceptible to disturbances locally and regionally when transferred to an independent validation location. Permafrost disturbance susceptibility models are a first-order assessment of landscape susceptibility and are promising for designing land management strategies for remote permafrost regions. Additionally, geomorphic patterns associated with higher susceptibility provide important knowledge about processes associated with the initiation of disturbances. Permafrost degradation was analyzed at the CBAWO using differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR). Active-layer dynamics were interpreted using inter-seasonal and intra-seasonal displacement measurements and highlight the importance of hydroclimatic factors on active layer change. Collectively, these research approaches contribute to permafrost monitoring and the assessment of landscape-scale vulnerability in order to develop permafrost disturbance mitigation strategies.