Fragmentos de complexidade aplicados ao mercado financeiro

O aumento da complexidade do mercado financeiro tem sido relatado por Rajan (2005), Gorton (2008) e Haldane e May (2011) como um dos principais fatores responsáveis pelo incremento do risco sistêmico que culminou na crise financeira de 2007/08. O Bank for International Settlements (2013) aborda a questão da complexidade no contexto da regulação bancária e discute a comparabilidade da adequação de capital entre os bancos e entre jurisdições. No entanto, as definições dos conceitos de complexidade e de sistemas adaptativos complexos são suprimidas das principais discussões. Este artigo esclarece alguns conceitos relacionados às teorias da Complexidade, como se dá a emergência deste fenômeno, como os conceitos podem ser aplicados ao mercado financeiro. São discutidas duas ferramentas que podem ser utilizadas no contexto de sistemas adaptativos complexos: Agent Based Models (ABMs) e entropia e comparadas com ferramentas tradicionais. Concluímos que ainda que a linha de pesquisa da complexidade deixe lacunas, certamente esta contribui com a agenda de pesquisa econômica para se compreender os mecanismos que desencadeiam riscos sistêmicos, bem como adiciona ferramentas que possibilitam modelar agentes heterogêneos que interagem, de forma a permitir o surgimento de fenômenos emergentes no sistema. Hipóteses de pesquisa são sugeridas para aprofundamento posterior.

Brazil and Turkey, a comparative analysis of both countries' economic development and institutional design from the Great Depression to the early 21st century

Apos uma década de rápido crescimento econômico na primeira década do século 21, Brasil e Turquia foram considerados duas das economias emergentes mais dinâmicas e promissoras. No entanto, vários sinais de dificuldades econômicas e tensões políticas reapareceram recentemente e simultaneamente nos dois países. Acreditamos que esses sinais e a sua simultaneidade podem ser entendidos melhor com um olhar retrospectivo sobre a história econômica dos dois países, que revela ser surpreendentemente paralela. Numa primeira parte, empreendemos uma comparação abrangente da história econômica brasileira e turca para mostrar as numerosas similaridades entre os desafios de política econômica que os dois países enfrentaram, assim como entre as respostas que eles lhes deram desde a virada da Grande Depressão até a primeira década do século 21. Essas escolhas de política econômica comuns dão forma a uma trajetória de desenvolvimento notavelmente análoga, caracterizada primeiro pela adoção do modelo de industrialização por substituição das importações (ISI) no contexto da recessão mundial dos anos 1930; depois pela intensificação e crise final desse modelo nos anos 1980; e finalmente por duas décadas de estabilização e transição para um modelo econômico mais liberal. Numa segunda parte, o desenvolvimento das instituições econômicas e políticas, assim como da economia política subjacente nos dois países, são analisados comparativamente a fim de prover alguns elementos de explicação do paralelo observado na primeira parte. Sustentamos que o marco institucional estabelecido nos dois países durante esse período também têm varias características fundamentais em comum e contribui a explicar as escolhas de política econômica e as performances econômicas comparáveis, detalhadas na primeira parte. Este estudo aborda elementos do contexto histórico úteis para compreender a situação econômica e política atual nos dois países. Potencialmente também constitui uma tentativa de considerar as economias emergentes numa perspectiva histórica e comparativa mais ampla para entender melhor as suas fraquezas institucionais e adotar um olhar mais equilibrado sobre seu potencial econômico.

Credit shocks and monetary policy in Brazil: a structural FAVAR approach

This paper investigates the implications of the credit channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the case of Brazil, using a structural FAVAR (SFAVAR) approach. The term structural comes from the estimation strategy, which generates factors that have a clear economic interpretation. The results show that unexpected shocks in the proxies for the external nance premium and the bank balance sheet channel produce large and persistent uctuations in in ation and economic activity accounting for more than 30% of the error forecast variance of the latter in a three-year horizon. The central bank seems to incorporate developments in credit markets especially variations in credit spreads into its reaction function, as impulse-response exercises show the Selic rate is declining in response to wider credit spreads and a contraction in the volume of new loans. Counterfactual simulations also demonstrate that the credit channel ampli ed the economic contraction in Brazil during the acute phase of the global nancial crisis in the last quarter of 2008, thus gave an important impulse to the recovery period that followed.

Outorga onerosa do direito de construir e dinâmica do mercado imobiliário formal: planejamento e descaminhos na expansão urbana de Parnamirim RN (2008-2010)

The `Outorga Onerosa do Direito de Construir - OODC` (Public Concession of Building Rights), instrument instituted by The City Statute in 2001, has as main objective the recovery of urban property, seeking for a fair distribution the urbanization benefits. The possibility of usage of the OODC instrument is linked to the maximum utilization coefficient, determined to specific areas in accordance to existing infrastructure conditions, further taking into account the formal real estate market, expansion axis and crowding. Being an instrument which establishes values to be paid for a better use of land, it maintains a narrow relation to the real estate, incentivizing or discouraging the crowding in specific areas. The present study investigates the relationship between the criteria for the making of the Public Concession of Building Rights instrument and the dynamics of the formal real estate market. It takes as empiric universe Parnamirim (RN), part of the Natal Metropolitan Area (RN), focusing on the application of the OODC in the period of 2008-2010. It seeks to better understand the necessary basis for the formulation of the instrument, about how it works and its relation to the formal real estate market. It aims to depict the formal real estate market by presenting the production of urban space in Parnamirim in terms of intensity and nature of the real estate, furthermore identifying the licensed properties through the application of the municipality instrument. For the conclusion, it is discussed the criteria for the formation of OODC, its relationship to the dynamics of the formal real estate market and its influencing possibilities in the processes of usage and occupation of land in the context of urban planning

Do lixo à solidariedade : avanços e perspectivas na busca de uma nova realidade

The dissertating study about the solidarity economy has the objective to analyze the four unions responsible for the selective municipal garbage collection in Natal. It aims at verifying the consolidation of these unions as solidarity economic undertakings, revealing which progresses they have made, as well as the social and economic insertion of the garbage collectors and their process of conquering citizenship. The referred four unions had been founded and are constituted, in their majority, by collectors coming from the Cidade Nova lixão (big garbage). As it was closed in August 2004, they decided to make a union in order to collecting garbage. As what concerns the methodic and theoretic proceedings, our research has been developed with a critical perspective and a qualitative approach without discarding and quantitative one. The central analytical categories of this paper are: association, work, social exclusion and citizenship. Our research has had three articulated axis which aim was to apprehend the subject, disclosing it. The exposition of the investigative results is subdivided in four chapters. The first one approaches the main aspects of the crisis of the capital and its reflexes in the world of work. Here we deal with the question the structural unemployment coming as a result of the present economic model, the mains changes verified in the Brazilian work market, as well as levels of unemployment affecting the work market in Natal s metropolitan region. The second chapter treats of the origin, concept and revival in Brazil concerning the tradition of thought and cooperative economic organization, which has recovered the central elements of the associative thought and is nowadays studied in Latin America under the name of solidarity economy. The third chapter deals with embodiment of the collectors unions, its history, appearing and development of each union. The fourth chapter presents the relative dimensions of the analysis categories supported in the reports of institutional actors as well as the perception collectors have about the recyclable stuffs, the way they face the daily life and so on, what brings about the contradictions present in their reality. The final comments sum up the main trends and particularities of the unions researched under the light of the solidarity economy and disclose the real perspectives of social and economic insertion of these collectors and the process they follow to conquest social recognition

Efetivação da garantia de defesa no estado constitucional de direito: colisão entre o poder punitivo e garantia de defesa

The domination of the violence for the Rule of law awakened a tension between the practice of the punitive power and the right to counsel. However, throughout the recent history of the Criminal law, this shock of forces has been determined for the punitive power. In this perspective, the present work intends to submit the guarantee of defense to a critical judgment, in search to conciliate its content to the Constitutional State of Right. For in such a way, it will be necessary to recognize the disequilibrium of the situation, but without considering the superiority of any of these elements. The State in such a way must fulfill the function to punish the culprits as to acquit the innocents. Despite the law is far from obtaining a harmonious speech, it is necessary that the defense guarantee coexists the punitive power as part of an only public interest, which is, to make criminal justice. In such a way, the existence of a sustainable balance between the punitive power and the guarantee of defense depend on the minimum interference of Criminal law and, also, of the judicial position in the concrete case. The present work faces, therefore, the moment of crisis of the Criminal law, consolidated with the advent of a new way of thinking according to the procedural guarantees, that will demand the overcoming of the old concepts. The Constitutional State of Right not only constitutes an efectiveness of the regime of the right to counsel, but in a similar way it searchs to accomplish the right of action and criminal justice as a whole. Knowing that the philosophy of the language raises doubts on the certainty, the truth and the judgement, it is imposed to understand that the defense guarantee is no more about a simple idea, but, in the crooked ways of the communication, we intend to find what the judge s function is when he faces this new reality

Mariana , Pai contra mãe e O caso da vara : escravidão e chão histórico em Machado de Assis

Machado de Assis understood his time and brought his perception of Brazilian society in the 19th century, with its multiple aspects economy, politics, culture, amongst others - to the texts he wrote. Through the tensions lived in his novels and short stories, Machado displays Brazilian social reality and the changes it had been undergoing. Mariana and Pai contra mãe show the crisis of the slavery system, the relation of dependency, the treatment given to the captives and the lack of coherence of a country that intended to adopt Liberalism as an ideology, but which kept on living under the shadow of slavery and its consequences. A country where the priorities were given to the landlords, owners of slaves, in protection of their interests. O caso da vara tells about how the crias da casa little black girls who lived in the household and learned how to make spool embroidery were treated. What were the punishments for desobedience and how they were levelled out, how should be the behaviour of a child who lived as a social outcast. Thus, this paper aims at playing a game of mirrors between History and fiction. Not only to play it, but to analyze how Machado deals with the reflections of 19th century Brazil on his short stories

Palavras da maldição: O Ceará de José Alcides Pinto entre símbolos e alegorias.

This work treats about the speeches that produced the crisis of symbols of Ceará, researching on matters and ways of expression of space between 1950s and 1970s. Therefore, we search discursive practices that since the end of nineteenth century built the identity of Ceará and in the middle of twentieth century produced the crisis of modes of seeing and telling the space in front of enunciations of the national modernization, especially with the emergence of politics by SUDENE to the Northeast, the progressive actions by Catholic Church, the defense of tradition by regional literature of union of Ceará Clã. The contradictions between the glorification and fear the modernization of Brazil produced on the space speeches that his identity would be fractured, that the old symbols of drought, cangaço, mysticism and colonels declined. Among analyzed speeches, we centered the analysis of Trilogia da Maldição formed of novels O Dragão, of 1964, Os Verdes Abutres da Colina and João Pinto de Maria: a biografia de um louco by José Alcides Pinto. In this novel, the enunciation of the crisis of symbologies about the space produced another aesthetic, the allegory, which, mixed with the mystical and melancholy, in search of ways to restore the language of the old themes Ceará, drop of Ceará the same stigma of anti-modern space, where the images of delay changed icons of a fractured identity in front of the modern streams, where the word was transformed in the dimension precarious and redeemer of the tradition, of old, of nature, of the plenitude of senses. In Jose Alcides, the colonel returns as the origin of the lost space, the drought is the revolt of God against the devil place, the apocalypse, the end imminent threat to the village, signs that fantastic, however, are in dialogue with the settings space and time in which they were produced

O currículo bandeirante: a Proposta Curricular de História no estado de São Paulo, 2008

O texto é fruto das discussões do Grupo de Trabalho (GT) da Anpuh - Secção São Paulo, no ano de 2008.¹ Objetiva discutir os impasses criados para a profissionalização do docente de história e para o aprendizado de crianças, jovens e adultos a partir da Proposta Curricular de História do Estado de São Paulo, que faz parte do projeto São Paulo faz escola, implantada no início do ano letivo de 2008.

Nitrous oxide production and potential denitrification in soils from riparian buffer strips: Influence of earthworms and plant litter

Vegetated riparian buffer strips have been established in Southern Quebec (Canada) in order to intercept nutrients such as nitrate (NO(3)(-)) and protect water quality near agricultural fields. Buffer strips may also favour denitrification through a combination of high soil moisture, NO(3)(-) and carbon supply, which could lead to the production of nitrous oxide (N(2)O), a greenhouse gas. Denitrification could be further amplified by the presence of earthworms, or by plant species that promote earthworm and bacterial activity in soils. Soils from four farms, comprising maize fields and adjacent buffer strips, were sampled in the fall of 2008. A total of six earthworm species were found, but average earthworm biomass did not differ between buffer strips and maize agroecoecosystems. Nitrate concentrations and net nitrification rates were higher in the maize fields than in the buffer strips: there was no difference in N(2)O production in soils collected from the two sampling locations. Potential denitrification, measured by acetylene inhibition, varied by two orders of magnitude, depending on experimental conditions: when amended with H(2)O or with H(2)O + NO3-, potential denitrification was higher (P < 0.05) in soils from buffer strips than from maize fields. Potential denitrification was highest in soils amended with H(2)O+glucose, or with H(2)O+ NO(3)(-) + glucose. Using microcosms, we tested the effect of litter-soil mixtures on earthworm growth, and the effect of earthworm-litter-soil mixtures on potential denitrification. Based on four categories of chemical assays, litters of woody species (oak, apple, Rhododendron) were generally of lower nutritional quality than litter from agronomic species (alfalfa, switchgrass, corn stover). Alfalfa litter had the most positive effect, whereas apple litter had the most negative effect, on earthworm growth. Potential denitrification was 2-4 times higher in earthworm-litter-soil mixtures than in plain soil. Litter treatments that included corn stover had lower potential denitrification than those that included alfalfa or switchgrass, whereas litter treatments that included oak had lower potential denitrification than those that included apple or Rhododendron. Results suggest that potential N(2)O emissions may be higher in riparian buffer strips than in adjacent maize fields, that N(2)O emissions in buffer strips may be amplified by comminuting earthworms, and that plant litters that reduce earthworm growth may not be best at mitigating N(2)O emissions. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the TAX1BP1 gene in head and neck cancer patients

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Debt financing rollercoaster: Latin American and Caribbean access to international bond markets since the debt crisis, 1982-2012

Includes bibliography

Structural change and productivity growth, 20 years later: old problems, new opportunities

Includes bibliography

Strategy proposal, from the perspective of Latin America and the Caribbean, for advancing towards an international convention on the human rights of older persons

The Brasilia Declaration, adopted in 2007 at the second Regional Intergovernmental Conference on Ageing in Latin America and the Caribbean: towards a society for all ages and rights-based social protection and ratified in ECLAC resolution 644(XXXII) of 2008, called on participating governments to work towards adopting a international convention regarding the rights of older persons (Article 24). It also established a mandate for a Human Rights Council Special Rapporteur who would be responsible for promoting and protecting the rights of older persons (Article 25).Three meetings were held during the past biennium pursuant to that commitment. The first and second meetings took place, respectively, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (2008) and in Buenos Aires, Argentina (2009). At the third meeting, held in Santiago (Chile), on 5-6 October 2009, participating countries requested the Secretariat of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC) to prepare "a proposal for a strategy on how to follow up article 24 and 25 of the Brasilia Declaration." This proposal should include the "minimum content necessary in an international convention on the rights of older persons from the Latin American and Caribbean perspective."In response to this request, this document first presents a general overview of existing human rights standards, both at the international and at the regional levels, that are relevant to the promotion and the protection of the rights of older persons. It then provides the arguments that, from a Latin American and Caribbean perspective, justify the adoption of an international convention regarding the rights of older persons, as well as the minimum contents that this convention should include. The document finally presents a proposed strategy to move towards the adoption of an international convention in this realm from a Latin American and Caribbean perspective.

The United States and Latin America and the Caribbean: Highlights of economics and trade

Foreword by Alicia Bárcena