Effect of low count sums on quantitative environmental reconstructions: an example using subfossil chironomids

The concentrations of chironomid remains in lake sediments are very variable and, therefore, chironomid stratigraphies often include samples with a low number of counts. Thus, the effect of low count sums on reconstructed temperatures is an important issue when applying chironomid‐temperature inference models. Using an existing data set, we simulated low count sums by randomly picking subsets of head capsules from surface‐sediment samples with a high number of specimens. Subsequently, a chironomid‐temperature inference model was used to assess how the inferred temperatures are affected by low counts. The simulations indicate that the variability of inferred temperatures increases progressively with decreasing count sums. At counts below 50 specimens, a further reduction in count sum can cause a disproportionate increase in the variation of inferred temperatures, whereas at higher count sums the inferences are more stable. Furthermore, low count samples may consistently infer too low or too high temperatures and, therefore, produce a systematic error in a reconstruction. Smoothing reconstructed temperatures downcore is proposed as a possible way to compensate for the high variability due to low count sums. By combining adjacent samples in a stratigraphy, to produce samples of a more reliable size, it is possible to assess if low counts cause a systematic error in inferred temperatures.

Comparison of different lattice definitions of the topological charge

We present a comparison of different definitions of the topological charge on the lattice, using a small-volume ensemble with 2 flavours of dynamical twisted mass fermions. The investigated definitions are: index of the overlap Dirac operator, spectral projectors, spectral flow of the HermitianWilson- Dirac operator and field theoretic with different kinds of smoothing of gauge fields (HYP and APE smearings, gradient flow, cooling). We also show some results on the topological susceptibility.

A Bootstrap-Regression Procedure to Capture Unit Specific Effects in Data Envelopment Analysis

The Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) efficiency score obtained for an individual firm is a point estimate without any confidence interval around it. In recent years, researchers have resorted to bootstrapping in order to generate empirical distributions of efficiency scores. This procedure assumes that all firms have the same probability of getting an efficiency score from any specified interval within the [0,1] range. We propose a bootstrap procedure that empirically generates the conditional distribution of efficiency for each individual firm given systematic factors that influence its efficiency. Instead of resampling directly from the pooled DEA scores, we first regress these scores on a set of explanatory variables not included at the DEA stage and bootstrap the residuals from this regression. These pseudo-efficiency scores incorporate the systematic effects of unit-specific factors along with the contribution of the randomly drawn residual. Data from the U.S. airline industry are utilized in an empirical application.

Effects of air pollution on asthma hospitalization rates in different age groups in metropolitan cities of Korea

Many studies have shown relationships between air pollution and the rate of hospital admissions for asthma. A few studies have controlled for age-specific effects by adding separate smoothing functions for each age group. However, it has not yet been reported whether air pollution effects are significantly different for different age groups. This lack of information is the motivation for this study, which tests the hypothesis that air pollution effects on asthmatic hospital admissions are significantly different by age groups. Each air pollutant's effect on asthmatic hospital admissions by age groups was estimated separately. In this study, daily time-series data for hospital admission rates from seven cities in Korea from June 1999 through 2003 were analyzed. The outcome variable, daily hospital admission rates for asthma, was related to five air pollutants which were used as the independent variables, namely particulate matter <10 micrometers (μm) in aerodynamic diameter (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2). Meteorological variables were considered as confounders. Admission data were divided into three age groups: children (<15 years of age), adults (ages 15-64), and elderly (≥ 65 years of age). The adult age group was considered to be the reference group for each city. In order to estimate age-specific air pollution effects, the analysis was separated into two stages. In the first stage, Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) with cubic spline for smoothing were applied to estimate the age-city-specific air pollution effects on asthmatic hospital admission rates by city and age group. In the second stage, the Bayesian Hierarchical Model with non-informative prior which has large variance was used to combine city-specific effects by age groups. The hypothesis test showed that the effects of PM10, CO and NO2 were significantly different by age groups. Assuming that the air pollution effect for adults is zero as a reference, age-specific air pollution effects were: -0.00154 (95% confidence interval(CI)= (-0.0030,-0.0001)) for children and 0.00126 (95% CI = (0.0006, 0.0019)) for the elderly for PM 10; -0.0195 (95% CI = (-0.0386,-0.0004)) for children for CO; and 0.00494 (95% CI = (0.0028, 0.0071)) for the elderly for NO2. Relative rates (RRs) were 1.008 (95% CI = (1.000-1.017)) in adults and 1.021 (95% CI = (1.012-1.030)) in the elderly for every 10 μg/m3 increase of PM10 , 1.019 (95% CI = (1.005-1.033)) in adults and 1.022 (95% CI = (1.012-1.033)) in the elderly for every 0.1 part per million (ppm) increase of CO; 1.006 (95%CI = (1.002-1.009)) and 1.019 (95%CI = (1.007-1.032)) in the elderly for every 1 part per billion (ppb) increase of NO2 and SO2, respectively. Asthma hospital admissions were significantly increased for PM10 and CO in adults, and for PM10, CO, NO2 and SO2 in the elderly.^

Assessing time-by-covariate interactions in Cox proportional hazards regression models using cubic spline functions

This dissertation develops and explores the methodology for the use of cubic spline functions in assessing time-by-covariate interactions in Cox proportional hazards regression models. These interactions indicate violations of the proportional hazards assumption of the Cox model. Use of cubic spline functions allows for the investigation of the shape of a possible covariate time-dependence without having to specify a particular functional form. Cubic spline functions yield both a graphical method and a formal test for the proportional hazards assumption as well as a test of the nonlinearity of the time-by-covariate interaction. Five existing methods for assessing violations of the proportional hazards assumption are reviewed and applied along with cubic splines to three well known two-sample datasets. An additional dataset with three covariates is used to explore the use of cubic spline functions in a more general setting. ^

Validated sample ages from 823 EPD sites

The number of well-dated pollen diagrams in Europe has increased considerably over the last 30 years and many of them have been submitted to the European Pollen Database (EPD). This allows for the construction of increasingly precise maps of Holocene vegetation change across the continent. Chronological information in the EPD has been expressed in uncalibrated radiocarbon years, and most chronologies to date are based on this time scale. Here we present new chronologies for most of the datasets stored in the EPD based on calibrated radiocarbon years. Age information associated with pollen diagrams is often derived from the pollen stratigraphy itself or from other sedimentological information. We reviewed these chronological tie points and assigned uncertainties to them. The steps taken to generate the new chronologies are described and the rationale for a new classification system for age uncertainties is introduced. The resulting chronologies are fit for most continental-scale questions. They may not provide the best age model for particular sites, but may be viewed as general purpose chronologies. Taxonomic particularities of the data stored in the EPD are explained. An example is given of how the database can be queried to select samples with appropriate age control as well as the suitable taxonomic level to answer a specific research question.

Stable oxygen isotope record of corales from the Red Sea

In order to assess the ability of Porites corals to accurately record environmental variations, high-resolution (weekly/biweekly) coral delta18O records were obtained from four coral colonies from the northern Gulf of Aqaba, which grew at depths of 7, 19, 29, and 42 m along one transect. Adjacent to each colony, hourly temperatures, biweekly salinities, and monthly delta18O of seawater were continuously recorded over a period of 14 months (April 1999 to June 2000). Contrary to water temperature, which shows a regular and strong seasonal variation and change with depth, seawater delta18O exhibits a weak seasonality and little change with depth. Positive correlations between seawater delta18O and salinity were observed. The two parameters were related to each other by the equation delta18O Seawater (per mil, VSMOW) = 0.281 * Salinity - 9.14. The high-resolution coral delta18O records from this study show a regular pattern of seasonality and are able to capture fine details of the weekly average temperature records. They resolve more than 95% of the weekly average temperature range. On the other hand, attenuation and amplification of coral seasonal amplitudes were recorded in deep, slow-growing corals, which were not related to environmental effects (temperature and/or seawater delta18O) or sampling resolution. We propose that these result from a combined effect of subannual variations in extension rate and variable rates of spine thickening of skeletal structures within the tissue layer. However, no smoothing or distortion of the isotopic signals was observed due to calcification within the tissue layer in shallow-water, fast-growing corals. The calculations from coral delta18O calibrations against the in situ measurements show that temperature (T) is related to coral delta18O (delta c) and seawater delta18O (delta w) by the equation T (°C) = -5.38 (delta c - delta w) -1.08. Our results demonstrate that coral delta18O from the northern Gulf of Aqaba is a reliable recorder of temperature variations, and that there is a minor contribution of seawater delta18O to this proxy, which could be ignored.

Sediment organic matter, grain size, and results of prediction models from northern North Atlantic and Arctic Seas

Sediment samples and hydrographic conditions were studied at 28 stations around Iceland. At these sites, Conductivity-Temperature-Depth (CTD) casts were conducted to collect hydrographic data and multicorer casts were conductd to collect data on sediment characteristics including grain size distribution, carbon and nitrogen concentration, and chloroplastic pigment concentration. A total of 14 environmental predictors were used to model sediment characteristics around Iceland on regional geographic space. For these, two approaches were used: Multivariate Adaptation Regression Splines (MARS) and randomForest regression models. RandomForest outperformed MARS in predicting grain size distribution. MARS models had a greater tendency to over- and underpredict sediment values in areas outside the environmental envelope defined by the training dataset. We provide first GIS layers on sediment characteristics around Iceland, that can be used as predictors in future models. Although models performed well, more samples, especially from the shelf areas, will be needed to improve the models in future.

Magnetic observation of ODP Site 152-919 in the Irminger Basin, North Atlantic

Component natural remanent magnetizations derived from u-channel and 1-qcm discrete samples from ODP Site 919 (Irminger Basin) indicate the existence of four intervals of negative inclinations in the upper Brunhes Chronozone. According to the age model based on planktic oxygen isotope data, these "excursional" intervals occur in sediments deposited during the following time intervals: 32-34 ka, 39-41 ka, 180-188 ka and 205-225 ka. These time intervals correspond to polarity excursions detected elsewhere, known as Mono Lake, Laschamp, Iceland Basin and Pringle Falls. The isotope-based age model is supported by the normalized remanence (paleointensity) record that can be correlated to other calibrated paleointensity records for the 0-500 ka interval, such as that from ODP Site 983. For the intervals associated with the Mono Lake and Laschamp excursions, virtual geomagnetic poles (VGPs) reach equatorial latitudes and mid-southerly latitudes, respectively. For intervals associated with the Iceland Basin and Pringle Falls excursions, repeated excursions of VGPs to high southerly latitudes indicate rapid directional swings rather than a single short-lived polarity reversal. The directional instability associated with polarity excursions is not often recorded, probably due to smoothing of the sedimentary record by the process of detrital remanence (DRM) acquisition.

Age model, stable isotopes, major element proportions and endmember unmixing results from four western tropical Atlantic cores

We investigate changes in the delivery and oceanic transport of Amazon sediments related to terrestrial climate variations over the last 250 ka. We present high-resolution geochemical records from four marine sediment cores located between 5 and 12° N along the northern South American margin. The Amazon River is the sole source of terrigenous material for sites at 5 and 9° N, while the core at 12° N receives a mixture of Amazon and Orinoco detrital particles. Using an endmember unmixing model, we estimated the relative proportions of Amazon Andean material ("%-Andes", at 5 and 9° N) and of Amazon material ("%-Amazon", at 12° N) within the terrigenous fraction. The %-Andes and %-Amazon records exhibit significant precessional variations over the last 250 ka that are more pronounced during interglacials in comparison to glacial periods. High %-Andes values observed during periods of high austral summer insolation reflect the increased delivery of suspended sediments by Andean tributaries and enhanced Amazonian precipitation, in agreement with western Amazonian speleothem records. Increased Amazonian rainfall reflects the intensification of the South American monsoon in response to enhanced land-ocean thermal gradient and moisture convergence. However, low %-Amazon values obtained at 12° N during the same periods seem to contradict the increased delivery of Amazon sediments. We propose that reorganizations in surface ocean currents modulate the northwestward transport of Amazon material. In agreement with published records, the seasonal North Brazil Current retroflection is intensified (or prolonged in duration) during cold substages of the last 250 ka (which correspond to intervals of high DJF or low JJA insolation) and deflects eastward the Amazon sediment and freshwater plume.

Planktic and benthic 14C reservoir ages, calibrated by a suite of 14C plateaus in the glacial-to-deglacial Suigetsu atmospheric 14C record

We here present a compilation of planktic and benthic 14C reservoir ages for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and early deglacial from 11 key sites of global ocean circulation in the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific Ocean. The ages were obtained by 14C plateau tuning, a robust technique to derive both an absolute chronology for marine sediment records and a high-resolution record of changing reservoir/ventilation ages (Delta14C values) for surface and deep waters by comparing the suite of planktic 14C plateaus of a sediment record with that of the atmospheric 14C record (Sarnthein et al., 2007, doi:10.1029/173GM13). Results published thus far used as atmospheric 14C reference U/Th-dated corals, the Cariaco planktic record, and speleothems (Fairbanks et al., 2005, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2005.04.007; Hughen et al., 2006, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.03.014; Beck et al., 2001, doi:10.1023/A:1008175728826). We have now used the varve-counted atmospheric 14C record of Lake Suigetsu terrestrial macrofossils (Ramsey et al., 2012, doi:10.1126/science.1226660) to recalibrate the boundary ages and reservoir ages of the seven published records directly to an atmospheric 14C record. In addition, the results for four new cores and further planktic results for four published records are given. Main conclusions from the new compilation are: (1) The Suigetsu atmospheric 14C record on its varve counted time scale reflects all 14C plateaus, their internal structures and relative length previously identified, but implies a rise in the average 14C plateau age by 200-700 14C yr during LGM and early deglacial times. (2) Based on different 14C ages of coeval atmospheric and planktic 14C plateaus, marine surface water Delta14C may have temporarily dropped to an equivalent of ~0 yr in low-latitude lagoon waters, but reached >2500 14C yr both in stratified subpolar waters and in upwelled waters such as in the South China Sea. These values differ significantly from a widely assumed constant global planktic Delta14C value of 400 yr. (3) Suites of deglacial planktic Delta14C values are closely reproducible in 14C records measured at neighboring core sites. (4) Apparent deep-water 14C ventilation ages (equivalents of benthic Delta14C), deduced from the sum of planktic Delta14C and coeval benthic-planktic 14C differences, vary from 500 up to >5000 yr in LGM and deglacial ocean basins.

Integrated transnational macroseismic data set for the strongest earthquakes of Vrancea

A unique macroseismic data set for the strongest earthquakes occurred since 1940 in Vrancea region, is constructed by a thorough review of all available sources. Inconsistencies and errors in the reported data and in their use are analyzed as well. The final data set, free from inconsistencies, including those at the political borders, contains 9822 observations for the strong intermediate-depth earthquakes: 1940, Mw=7.7; 1977, Mw=7.4; 1986, Mw=7.1; 1990, May 30, Mw=6.9 and 1990, May 31, Mw=6.4; 2004, Mw=6.0. This data set is available electronically as supplementary data for the present paper. From the discrete macroseismic data the continuous macroseismic field is generated using the methodology developed by Molchan et al. (2002) that, along with the unconventional smoothing method Modified Polynomial Filtering (MPF), uses the Diffused Boundary (DB) method, which visualizes the uncertainty in the isoseismal's boundaries. The comparison of DBs with previous isoseismals maps represents a good evaluation criterion of the reliability of earlier published maps. The produced isoseismals can be used not only for the formal comparison between observed and theoretical isoseismals, but also for the retrieval of source properties and the assessment of local responses (Molchan et al., 2011).

Impact of seasonality-adjusted flexible microcredit on repayment and food consumption : experimental evidence from rural Bangladesh

The mismatch between credit repayments and income seasonality poses a challenge for microfinance institutions (MFIs) working in developing countries. For instance, in northern Bangladesh, income and consumption downfalls during the lean season after the transplanting of major paddy crops are a serious threat to a household's economy. Poor landless agricultural wage laborers suffer the most owing to this seasonality as they face difficulties in smoothing their consumption. However, in designing microcredit products, MFIs do not usually provide flexibility or seasonal adjustment during the lean season. This is mainly because MFIs are afraid that such flexibility might break the repayment discipline of borrowers, resulting in higher default rates. We thus conducted a randomized controlled trial in 2011-12 in northern Bangladesh to empirically test whether seasonality-adjusted flexible microcredit leads to an increase in repayment problems for MFIs as well as whether it can increase and stabilize consumption of borrower households. Our results suggest no statistically discernible difference among the treatment arms in case of default, overdue amount, or repayment frequency. On the other hand, we find no positive impact of repayment flexibility on immediate food consumption during the period of seasonality, except for in-kind full moratorium treatment group. After a year of initial intervention, however, we see positive changes in food intake during the lean season. Thus, our preliminary results are in favor of seasonality-adjusted flexible microcredit.

Impacts of foreign exchange auctions on the informal market rate in Myanmar

Since the abolition of the official peg and the introduction of a managed float in April 2012, the Central Bank of Myanmar has operated the daily two–way auctions of foreign exchange aimed at smoothing exchange rate fluctuations. Despite the reforms to the foreign exchange regime, however, informal trading of foreign exchange remains pervasive. Using the daily informal exchange rate and Central Bank auction data, this study examines the impacts of auctions on the informal market rate. First, a VAR analysis indicates that the official rate did not Granger cause the informal rate. Second, GARCH models indicate that the auctions did not reduce the conditional variance of the informal rate returns. Overall, the auctions have only a quite modest impact on the informal exchange rate.

Nonparametric Message Passing Methods for Cooperative Localization and Tracking

The objective of this thesis is the development of cooperative localization and tracking algorithms using nonparametric message passing techniques. In contrast to the most well-known techniques, the goal is to estimate the posterior probability density function (PDF) of the position of each sensor. This problem can be solved using Bayesian approach, but it is intractable in general case. Nevertheless, the particle-based approximation (via nonparametric representation), and an appropriate factorization of the joint PDFs (using message passing methods), make Bayesian approach acceptable for inference in sensor networks. The well-known method for this problem, nonparametric belief propagation (NBP), can lead to inaccurate beliefs and possible non-convergence in loopy networks. Therefore, we propose four novel algorithms which alleviate these problems: nonparametric generalized belief propagation (NGBP) based on junction tree (NGBP-JT), NGBP based on pseudo-junction tree (NGBP-PJT), NBP based on spanning trees (NBP-ST), and uniformly-reweighted NBP (URW-NBP). We also extend NBP for cooperative localization in mobile networks. In contrast to the previous methods, we use an optional smoothing, provide a novel communication protocol, and increase the efficiency of the sampling techniques. Moreover, we propose novel algorithms for distributed tracking, in which the goal is to track the passive object which cannot locate itself. In particular, we develop distributed particle filtering (DPF) based on three asynchronous belief consensus (BC) algorithms: standard belief consensus (SBC), broadcast gossip (BG), and belief propagation (BP). Finally, the last part of this thesis includes the experimental analysis of some of the proposed algorithms, in which we found that the results based on real measurements are very similar with the results based on theoretical models.