Turkey's accession to the EU: interests, ideas and path dependence

The paper is divided into four sections. The first offers a critical assessment of explanations of both rationalist and constructivist approaches currently dominating European studies and assesses the notion of path dependence. The second and third sections analyse the role of both material interests and polity ideas in EU enlargement to Turkey, and conclude that explanations exclusively based on either strategic calculations or values and identities have significant shortcomings. The fourth section examines the institutional path of Turkey's candidacy to show how the course of action begun at Helsinki restricted the range of possible and legitimate options three years later in Copenhagen.

Data size sufficiency analyses of haplotype inference algortihms

We present experimental and theoretical analyses of data requirements for haplotype inference algorithms. Our experiments include a broad range of problem sizes under two standard models of tree distribution and were designed to yield statistically robust results despite the size of the sample space. Our results validate Gusfield's conjecture that a population size of n log n is required to give (with high probability) sufficient information to deduce the n haplotypes and their complete evolutionary history. The experimental results inspired our experimental finding with theoretical bounds on the population size. We also analyze the population size required to deduce some fixed fraction of the evolutionary history of a set of n haplotypes and establish linear bounds on the required sample size. These linear bounds are also shown theoretically.

A nonlinear threshold model for the dependence of extremes of stationary sequences

One of the main implications of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is that expected future returns on financial assets are not predictable if investors are risk neutral. In this paper we argue that financial time series offer more information than that this hypothesis seems to supply. In particular we postulate that runs of very large returns can be predictable for small time periods. In order to prove this we propose a TAR(3,1)-GARCH(1,1) model that is able to describe two different types of extreme events: a first type generated by large uncertainty regimes where runs of extremes are not predictable and a second type where extremes come from isolated dread/joy events. This model is new in the literature in nonlinear processes. Its novelty resides on two features of the model that make it different from previous TAR methodologies. The regimes are motivated by the occurrence of extreme values and the threshold variable is defined by the shock affecting the process in the preceding period. In this way this model is able to uncover dependence and clustering of extremes in high as well as in low volatility periods. This model is tested with data from General Motors stocks prices corresponding to two crises that had a substantial impact in financial markets worldwide; the Black Monday of October 1987 and September 11th, 2001. By analyzing the periods around these crises we find evidence of statistical significance of our model and thereby of predictability of extremes for September 11th but not for Black Monday. These findings support the hypotheses of a big negative event producing runs of negative returns in the first case, and of the burst of a worldwide stock market bubble in the second example. JEL classification: C12; C15; C22; C51 Keywords and Phrases: asymmetries, crises, extreme values, hypothesis testing, leverage effect, nonlinearities, threshold models

Why are offspring born larger when it is colder? Phenotypic plasticity for offspring size in the cladoceran Simocephalus vetulus (Müller)

It has been predicted on theorerical grounds (Sibly & Calow, 1983; Taylor & Williams, 1984) that optimal offspring size should be highly sensitive to juvenile growth and survival rates. To test such models, genetically-identical individuals of Simicephalus vetulus were reared at different temperatures and monitored for offspring size and juvenile growth rate. As adult size correlates negatively with temperature, an analysis of covariance was performed to separate the effects of temperature and maternal size. The result is that offspring size indeed correlates negatively with juvenile growth rate. Comparisons are made with field observation of several authors on seasonal variation of offspring size and alternative explanations are discussed. It is concluded that present experiments support the prediction of the theoretical models.

Sexual dimorphism in resource acquisition and deployment: both size and timing matter.

Background and Aims The males and females of many dioecious plant species differ from one another in important life-history traits, such as their size. If male and female reproductive functions draw on different resources, for example, one should expect males and females to display different allocation strategies as they grow. Importantly, these strategies may differ not only between the two sexes, but also between plants of different age and therefore size. Results are presented from an experiment that asks whether males and females of Mercurialis annua, an annual plant with indeterminate growth, differ over time in their allocation of two potentially limiting resources (carbon and nitrogen) to vegetative (below-and above-ground) and reproductive tissues.Methods Comparisons were made of the temporal patterns of biomass allocation to shoots, roots and reproduction and the nitrogen content in the leaves between the sexes of M. annua by harvesting plants of each sex after growth over different periods of time.Key Results and Conclusions Males and females differed in their temporal patterns of allocation. Males allocated more to reproduction than females at early stages, but this trend was reversed at later stages. Importantly, males allocated proportionally more of their biomass towards roots at later stages, but the roots of females were larger in absolute terms. The study points to the important role played by both the timing of resource deployment and the relative versus absolute sizes of the sinks and sources in sexual dimorphism of an annual plant.

Five-day plan for smoking cessation using group behaviour therapy.

The "Five-Day Plan to Stop Smoking" (FDP) is an educational group technique for smoking cessation. We studied a cohort of 123 smokers (55 men, 68 women, mean age 42 years) who participated in 11 successive FDP sessions held in Switzerland between 1995 and 1998 and who were followed up for at least 12 months by telephone or direct interview. Overall, 102 of the 123 subjects (83%) had stopped smoking by the end of the FDP, and self-declared smoking cessation rate was 25% after one year. The following factors potentially associated with outcome were studied: age, sex, smoking habit duration, cigarettes per day, Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND), group size, and medical presence among the group leaders. Smoking habit duration was the only variable which showed a statistically significant association with success: the rate of smoking cessation was higher among patients who had smoked for less than 20 years (34.7% vs. 18.9%, p = 0.049). Stress was the most common cause of relapse. The FDP appears to be an effective smoking cessation therapy. Propositions are made in order to improve the success rate of future sessions.

Population demography and the evolution of helping behaviors.

Limited dispersal may favor the evolution of helping behaviors between relatives as it increases their relatedness, and it may inhibit such evolution as it increases local competition between these relatives. Here, we explore one way out of this dilemma: if the helping behavior allows groups to expand in size, then the kin-competition pressure opposing its evolution can be greatly reduced. We explore the effects of two kinds of stochasticity allowing for such deme expansion. First, we study the evolution of helping under environmental stochasticity that may induce complete patch extinction. Helping evolves if it results in a decrease in the probability of extinction or if it enhances the rate of patch recolonization through propagules formed by fission of nonextinct groups. This mode of dispersal is indeed commonly found in social species. Second, we consider the evolution of helping in the presence of demographic stochasticity. When fecundity is below its value maximizing deme size (undersaturation), helping evolves, but under stringent conditions unless positive density dependence (Allee effect) interferes with demographic stochasticity. When fecundity is above its value maximizing deme size (oversaturation), helping may also evolve, but only if it reduces negative density-dependent competition.

La dépendance à l'égard de l'environnement lors de lésions cérébrales: conduites d'imitation, de préhension et d'utilisation [Environmental dependence in brain lesions: imitative behavior, prehension and utilization].

This paper reviews the literature on clinical signs such as imitation behavior, grasp reaction, manipulation of tools, utilization behavior, environmental dependency, hyperlexia, hypergraphia and echolalia. Some aspects of this semiology are of special interest because they refer to essential notions such as free-will and autonomy.

Decomposing differences in total factor productivity across firm size

This paper investigates the extent to which the gap in total factor productivity between small and large firms is due to differences in the endowment of factors determining productivity and to the returns associated with these factors. We place particular emphasis on the contribution of differences in the propensity to innovate and in the use of skilled labor across firms of different size. Empirical evidence from a representative sample of Spanish manufacturing firms corroborates that both differences in endowments and returns to innovation and skilled labor significantly contribute to the productivity gap between small and large firms. In addition, it is observed that the contribution of innovation to this gap is caused only by differences in quantity, while differences in returns have no effect; in the case of human capital, however, most of the effect can be attributed to increasing differences in returns between small and large firms.

A follow-up study on the quality of alcohol dependence-related information on the web.

ABSTRACT: In order to evaluate the one-year evolution of web-based information on alcohol dependence, we re-assessed alcohol-related sites in July 2007 with the same evaluating tool that had been used to assess these sites in June 2006. Websites were assessed with a standardized form designed to rate sites on the basis of accountability, presentation, interactivity, readability, and content quality. The DISCERN scale was also used, which aimed to assist persons without content expertise in assessing the quality of written health publications. Scores were highly stable for all components of the form one year later (r = .77 to .95, p < .01). Analysis of variance for repeated measures showed no time effect, no interaction between time and scale, no interaction between time and group (affiliation categories), and no interaction between time, group, and scale. The study highlights lack of change of alcohol-dependence-related web pages across one year.

Study of the influence of grain size and precipitates on the electromagnetic losses in different grades of non-oriented fully processed electrical steel

The study was performed in the installations of OCAS, a Steel Research Centre of ArcelorMittal. Taking M32 steel (3.25%Si+0.9%Al) as the basis chemical composition and three different thicknesses (0.35, 0.5 and 0.65mm), different annealing conditions (temperature and time) have been applied in the laboratory simulator at St. Chély, France. The aim was to link annealing parameters, grain size and energy loss. It was determined the optimum annealing parameters to reach the lowest power losses for three different grades of non-oriented fully processed electrical steel. In addition, M250-50 samples having different magnetic behaviour (high and low losses) but the same grain size and texture, have been analyzed in terms of TEM observations of their precipitates, in the University of Marseille. The results reveal that a high amount of medium and big precipitates (&10 nm) worsen the magnetic properties of the material. The small precipitates (&10nm) do not have a strong influence on the magnetic properties. The presence of precipitates can have a great influence on the power losses and further work is clearly necessary.

Firms in Scottish High Technology Clusters: software, life sciences, microelectronics, optoelectronics and digital media – preliminary evidence and analysis on firm size, growth and optimality

This paper reports on: (a) new primary source evidence on; and (b) statistical and econometric analysis of high technology clusters in Scotland. It focuses on the following sectors: software, life sciences, microelectronics, optoelectronics, and digital media. Evidence on a postal and e-mailed questionnaire is presented and discussed under the headings of: performance, resources, collaboration & cooperation, embeddedness, and innovation. The sampled firms are characterised as being small (viz. micro-firms and SMEs), knowledge intensive (largely graduate staff), research intensive (mean spend on R&D GBP 842k), and internationalised (mainly selling to markets beyond Europe). Preliminary statistical evidence is presented on Gibrat’s Law (independence of growth and size) and the Schumpeterian Hypothesis (scale economies in R&D). Estimates suggest a short-run equilibrium size of just 100 employees, but a long-run equilibrium size of 1000 employees. Further, to achieve the Schumpeterian effect (of marked scale economies in R&D), estimates suggest that firms have to grow to very much larger sizes of beyond 3,000 employees. We argue that the principal way of achieving the latter scale may need to be by takeovers and mergers, rather than by internally driven growth.

The immune-dependence of chemotherapy in experimental schistosomiasis

Experimental evidence indicates that immune effector mechanisms can enhance the activity of schistosomicidal drugs. Praziquantel, oxamniquine, hycanthone and antimony were less effective against Schistosoma mansoni infections in mice immunosuppressed by T cell-deprivation, than against comparable infection in normal mice. The schistosomicidal activities of praziquantel, oxamniquine and antimony have been experimentally enhanced by the synergistic action of immune sera. In passive serum transfer experiments a s. mansoni antigen of Mr 27 kD with non-specific esterase activity was identified as a potentially sensitive target for the antibodies that interact with praziquantel. Indirect immunofluorescence indicated that this antigen was exposed on the worm surface as a result of praziquantel treatment.