Ciclos económicos en economías abiertas y menos desarrolladas: el papel de los "shocks" en los términos de intercambio.The business cycle in open and less developed economies: the rol of terms-of-trade shocks.

Nuestra preocupación reside en estudiar empíricamente el mecanismo de transmisión internacional de ciclos económicos a economías pequeñas y menos desarrolladas (LDC), evaluando el impacto de los shocks en los términos de intercambio en países dónde existen imperfecciones en el mercado crediticio que imponen severas restricciones en el financiamiento de la inversión doméstica y al crecimiento económico. Primero, analizamos si la cuenta corriente responde de manera asimétrica a movimientos de largo plazo en los términos de intercambio. La hipótesis es que “en los buenos tiempos” cuando se produce una mejora permanente en términos de intercambio (y con ello el nivel de ingreso) los individuos no elevan su consumo en un monto acorde con la mejora de su ingreso (permanente) sino que ahorran una fracción del aumento en su dotación para hacer frente a una reversión en la mejora en los términos de intercambios (aunque ésta sea transitoria) en el futuro. En consecuencia, la cuenta corriente (diferencia entre ingreso y absorción) responde de manera positiva a un shock permanente en los términos de intercambio, ya que el individuo ahorra de manera cautelosa –debido a que sabe que no le prestarán para suavizar consumo - aún suponiendo que en el futuro tendrá una reversión transitoria de su ingreso. Segundo, estudiamos la relación dinámica entre los términos de intercambio y la tasa de interés en la economía pequeña abierta y con imperfecciones en el mercado crediticio (información asimétrica). La hipótesis es que la economía doméstica tiene que soportar una prima de riesgo que eleva el costo de la inversión y retarda el crecimiento (Gertler y Rogoff; 1990). Esta prima de riesgo depende, además, en forma negativa del nivel del colateral que tenga la economía. El colateral es la dotación de recursos naturales, por ejemplo, que la economía posee a los fines garantizar el cumplimiento de las obligaciones contraídas (en el modelo presentado las actividades dónde se invierten son independientes del colateral). La hipótesis establecida indica que los cambios en los términos de intercambio generan un aumento del colateral de la economía y una reducción del riesgo país: aumentos en los términos de intercambio reducen la prima de riesgo de la economía que opera en mercados de capitales con asimetrías de información, y como consecuencia aumentarían los ingresos de capitales. De esta forma, se estaría encontrando una explicación a la denominada “Paradoja de Lucas”. Finalmente, el proyecto estudia la conexión entre dos variables “clave” en la economía de los países emergentes: la relación entre los términos de intercambio y el tipo de cambio real. Argumentamos que los efectos de las mejoras de los términos de intercambio sobre los flujos de capitales externos tienden a ser sobreestimadas si no se consideran los efectos “secundarios” de éstas sobre el tipo de cambio real de la economía pequeña menos desarrollada. En este proyecto se controlan estadísticamente esta relación. La estrategia empírica elegida resulta en aplicar a un panel (constituido por dieciocho países de Latinoamérica) el método generalizado de momentos (GMM) a dos modelos de regresión estadística a los fines de abordar de manera eficiente el problema de la endogeneidad de la variable dependiente que actúa como regresor rezagado. La estrategia de estimación elegida enfatiza el análisis de la relación dinámica de las variables económicas incluidas en el análisis. The paper analyzes the general problem related to the transmission of economic cycles to Small Open Economies. The analysis focuses on terms-of-trade shocks, which are considered one of the major sources of income volatility in developing economies. Specifically, we tackle the problem related to the impact of terms-of-trade shocks in Less Developed SOEs. ‘Less Developed SOEs’ are understood as those countries who have borrowing constraints. First, we put to a test the hypothesis of asymmetric response of current account to terms-of-trade shocks (the impact of the shock on current account differs depending whether it is positive or negative), which originates from considering binding restrictions in international capital markets (Agénor and Aizenman; 2004). Second, we investigate about the main determinants of External Capital Flows (ECF) directed to Developing Countries. We put to a test the Gertler and Rogoff (1990) hypothesis that a “risky rate” arises in that markets because the economy has not sufficient amount of wealth to “collateralize” the capital she needs to borrow to take advantage of the investment opportunities she has and additionally because the lender does not have the chance of observing what the borrowed does with the funds (that is information asymmetry arises because the lender can check the realized output of investment but he can not observe if he really invest in the project or secretly lend abroad). Finally, Following Prasad, E. S., Rajan and R. Subramanian, A (2007) we measure the relationship between external capital flows and domestic currency overvaluation. We run a panel GMM estimation for a set of 18 Latin American Countries during the period 1973-2008.

Does the provision of full day care improve the quality of life for children and their parents

This study sought to explore and examine if the provision of full day care improves the quality of life for children and their parents. Owing to the effects of the Celtic Tiger, life in Ireland has changed considerably over the past five to ten years. Because of the booming economy there are now 60.8% of women employed in the workforce. This means many changes for children, parents and families. Findings in the literature review are based on international studies. The researcher utilised both qualitative and quantitative research methodologies for the study. She interviewed 31 respondents; 27 childcare managers; 3 politicians and the chairperson of a childcare committee. Furthermore, 325 questionnaires were completed in a survey by working parents in the statutory and voluntary sectors in and around Sligo town and in two childcare facilities in Letterkenny, Co. Donegal. Babies as young as 4 months are being cared for in childcare facilities from 6.45am until 6.pm daily, 5 days per week. Some children are spending up to 11 hours per day in childcare facilities. The study has not categorically concluded that full day care is either positive or negative for children. Childcare facilities are providing good quality childcare encompassing various services; however, 25 out of 27 childcare managers reported to the researcher that they would not leave their child in full day care. Parents are finding it difficult to manage work life balance. Health dominated quality of life issues. Two hundred and thirty five (235) parents reported being stressed. The study also found that 315 working parents feel that the government is not doing enough to support working parents. On a positive note, 241 parents said they are happy in general with the quality of life for them, their family and their children. In addition, the researcher has identified a number of recommendations for future changes in policy and further study.

Ocorrência das domácias nas rubiáceas - II

The author has studied the domatia appearing in the Rubiaceae family by examining 278 species distributed among 95 genera; and she has verified that 51 species belonging to 29 genera have domatia fitting following types according to the Chevalier's classification: in the "touffe de poils", "em pertuis" and " enpochette". Fourtheen species showed domatia that has chamber and outlet orifice. The others 29 species present domatia either as aglomerates-hair, clusters-hair or scattered hairs and variations of this types; eight species present domatia "em pochette". On Paurichiantha rubra (Benth.) Brem., Rondelettia purdiei Hook f., and Randia cladantha K. Schum the domatia also appear in the axils nervure of several orders; and also in Psychotria racemosa Aubl., they are located in the axil of the angle toward the leaf base. The author observed for the first time two types of domatia in the same leaf on Psychotria fortuita Standi, and on type of domatia, with hairs, that is formed by a fold on the blade on Chomelia tenuiflora Benth.

Accuracy vs. simplicity: a complex trade-off

Inductive learning aims at finding general rules that hold true in a database. Targeted learning seeks rules for the predictions of the value of a variable based on the values of others, as in the case of linear or non-parametric regression analysis. Non-targeted learning finds regularities without a specific prediction goal. We model the product of non-targeted learning as rules that state that a certain phenomenon never happens, or that certain conditions necessitate another. For all types of rules, there is a trade-off between the rule's accuracy and its simplicity. Thus rule selection can be viewed as a choice problem, among pairs of degree of accuracy and degree of complexity. However, one cannot in general tell what is the feasible set in the accuracy-complexity space. Formally, we show that finding out whether a point belongs to this set is computationally hard. In particular, in the context of linear regression, finding a small set of variables that obtain a certain value of R2 is computationally hard. Computational complexity may explain why a person is not always aware of rules that, if asked, she would find valid. This, in turn, may explain why one can change other people's minds (opinions, beliefs) without providing new information.

Novos anfíbios anuros das Serras costeiras do Brasil

During the last years, one of the authors has turned her attention, increasingly, to the anuran fauna of the high forested ranges near the sea-board of S.E. Brazil. This has led to the finding of a number of very interesting frogs which do not occur in the lower, mesic, or, occasionally, xeric, open country. One of these forms is presented here. As it did not fit perfectly into any of the known genera, she decided to consult her fellow herpetologist at the National Museum, Mr. Antenor Leitão de Carvalho, who is interested in anatomy. He cleared an adult and a juvenille specimen; the osteological characters found are given below. Joint publication was decided upon, one author contributing her field-notes and the morphological characters and drafting the text, whereas the other contributed the osteology, drawings and measurements. The specific name was also chosen by Leitão de Carvalho, in homage to the late Professor Adolpho Lutz, a pioneer in the study of Brazilian frogs. In regard to the specific designation, the co-author and daughter of Adolpho Lutz wishes to publish the following.

(When) would i lie to you? comment on? deception: the role of consequences?

This paper reconsiders the evidence on lying or deception presented in Gneezy (2005,American Economic Review). We argue that Gneezy?s data cannot reject the hipótesis that people are one of two kinds: either a person will never lie, or a person will lie whenever she prefers the outcome obtained by lying over the outcome obtained by telling the truth. This implies that so long as lying induces a preferred outcome over truth-telling, a person?s decisión of whether to lie may be completely insensitive to other changes in the induced outcomes, such as exactly how much she monetarily gains relative to how much she hurts an anonymous partner. We run new but similar experiments to those of Gneezy in order to test this hypothesis. We find that our data cannot reject this hypothesis either, but we also discover substantial differences in behavior between our sub jects and Gneezy?s sub jects.

The Sanctified ‘Adultress’ and Her Circumstantial Clause: Bathsheba’s Bath and Self-Consecration in 2 Samuel 11

Bathsheba's actions in 2 Sam. 11.2-4 identify crucial aspects of her character. Past commentators interpret these words in connection with menstrual purification, stressing the certain paternity of David's adulterine child. This article demonstrates that the participles rōheset and mitqaddesšet and the noun mittum'ātāh do not denote menstrual cleansing. Bathsheba's washing is an innocent bath. She is the only individual human to self-sanctify, placing her in the company of the Israelite deity. The syntax of the verse necessitates that her action of self-sanctifying occurs simultaneously as David lies with her. The three focal terms highlight the important legitimacy of Bathsheba before the Israelite deity, her identity as a non-Israelite, her role as queen mother of the Solomonic line, and her full participation in the narrative.

Participació de la dona en l’esport i l’Olimpisme

Aquest document es va presentar a l’Assignatura Campus de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB) “Esport, Olimpisme i Cultura Contemporània”, durant el curs acadèmic 1998/1999. L’autora analitza l’accés diferencial de la dona en l’esport dins l’ampli panorama de la desigualtat i de la discriminació social i cultural que, històricament, ha patit i sovint pateix la dona.

Social chromosome variants differentially affect queen determination and the survival of workers in the fire ant Solenopsis invicta.

Intraspecific variation in social organization is common, yet the underlying causes are rarely known. An exception is the fire ant Solenopsis invicta in which the existence of two distinct forms of social colony organization is under the control of the two variants of a pair of social chromosomes, SB and Sb. Colonies containing exclusively SB/SB workers accept only one single queen and she must be SB/SB. By contrast, when colonies contain more than 10% of SB/Sb workers, they accept several queens but only SB/Sb queens. The variants of the social chromosome are associated with several additional important phenotypic differences, including the size, fecundity and dispersal strategies of queens, aggressiveness of workers, and sperm count in males. However, little is known about whether social chromosome variants affect fitness in other life stages. Here, we perform experiments to determine whether differential selection occurs during development and in adult workers. We find evidence that the Sb variant of the social chromosome increases the likelihood of female brood to develop into queens and that adult SB/Sb workers, the workers that cull SB/SB queens, are overrepresented in comparison to SB/SB workers. This demonstrates that supergenes such as the social chromosome can have complex effects on phenotypes at various stages of development.

Anti-N-Methyl-D-Aspartate (NMDA) Receptor Encephalitis Mimicking a Primary Psychiatric Disorder in an Adolescent.

Anti-N-methyl-d-aspartate (anti-NMDA) receptor encephalitis likely has a wider clinical spectrum than previously recognized. This article reports a previously healthy 16-year-old girl who was diagnosed with anti-NMDA receptor encephalitis 3 months after onset of severe depression with psychotic features. She had no neurological manifestations, and cerebral magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was normal. Slow background on electroencephalogram and an oligoclonal band in the cerebrospinal fluid prompted the search for anti-NMDA receptor antibodies. She markedly improved over time but remained with mild neuropsychological sequelae after a trial of late immunotherapy. Only a high index of suspicion enables recognition of the milder forms of the disease masquerading as primary psychiatric disorders.

Acute infantile encephalopathy predominantly affecting the frontal lobe (AIEF): A European case.

Acute infantile encephalopathy predominantly affecting the frontal lobes (AIEF) has been described as a new entity, based on MRI findings (acute abnormal diffusion-weighted imaging signals in the frontal lobes followed by atrophy) and exclusion of other acute encephalopathies. Patients present with acute onset of fever, status epilepticus, and coma. Different causal mechanisms have been suggested such as localized viral infection, toxic insult due to cytokines, or postictal damage. Only children of Japanese descent have been described. We report the case of a Caucasian girl whose history and MRI findings were similar to the Japanese cases. She had a massive regression with verbal apraxia, while cognitive development was less affected; she initially presented with a cluster of complex partial seizures (and not convulsive status epilepticus), making epileptic or post anoxic-ischemic sequelae highly unlikely. The place of this proposed entity among other recently described acute encephalopathies with abnormal diffusion on MRI is discussed.

Rhinitis due to acrylates : case report

Background: Acrylates and methacrylates (salts and esters of acrylic and metacrylic acid respectively), are monomers commonly found in polymer plastics, resins and glues, and are widely used in many industry sectors. The first adverse health effects described were skin reactions and asthma. Exposure to acrylates, for instance when using multicomponent glues, is now a well known cause of occupational asthma. Methods: We report the case of a rhinitis - and possible asthma - to acrylates, in a 38-year-old woman, working in a nail beauty salon. She was currently treated for hypertension, and otherwise known for obesity and seasonal rhinoconjunctivitis, but did not have any respiratory problem. Two years after starting this activity, she progressively started to complain of anosmia, rhinitis, and intermittent dyspnea. Her job consisted in decorating nails with a mixture of a polymer powder and a liquid monomer, after removing the previous artificial nail with a small sander. We assessed exposure to acrylates at her working place, both as dust (from sanded nails) and volatile compound (from the mixture described above), and she was asked to measure her peak flow values twice a day for ten days, in order to detect a possible relationship between her occupational activities, the symptoms and the peak flow values. Results: Measures made during the visit of the patient's place of work showed that the existing aspiration system was efficient for eliminating the dust produced by nail sanding, but not for eliminating the volatile components. Thus, occupational exposure to acrylates was demonstrated. Moreover, the peak flow measures showed an average decrease of almost 10 percent when the patient was at work, compared to when she stayed home. We concluded that she actually suffered from professional rhinitis and, possibly, professional asthma (not certain because of the limited number of peak flow measures per day). Conclusion: Although exposure to acrylates is a well known cause of occupational asthma, it should be emphasized that the exact mechanisms of action remain unknown, despite the abundant literature about it. Some professions, which tend to be more frequent nowadays (such as working in a nail beauty salon), can expose the worker to particular risks. This highlights the need of always inquiring not only about the profession, but also the related activities, when facing a case of suspected asthma.

Coordination in Public Good Provision: How Individual Volunteering is Impacted by the Volunteering of Others

In this analysis, we examine the relationship between an individual's decision to volunteer and the average level of volunteering in the community where the individual resides. Our theoretical model is based on a coordination game , in which volunteering by others is informative regarding the benefit from volunteering. We demonstrate that the interaction between this information and one's private information makes it more likely that he or she will volunteer, given a higher level of contributions by his or her peers. We complement this theoretical work with an empirical analysis using Census 2000 Summary File 3 and Current Population Survey (CPS) 2004-2007 September supplement file data. We control for various individual and community characteristics, and employ robustness checks to verify the results of the baseline analysis. We additionally use an innovative instrumental variables strategy to account for reflection bias and endogeneity caused by selective sorting by individuals into neighborhoods, which allows us to argue for a causal interpretation. The empirical results in the baseline, as well as all robustness analyses, verify the main result of our theoretical model, and we employ a more general structure to further strengthen our results.

Coordination in Public Good Provision: How Individual Volunteering is Impacted by the Volunteering of Others

In this analysis, we examine the relationship between an individual’s decision to volunteer and the average level of volunteering in the community where the individual resides. Our theoretical model is based on a coordination game , in which volunteering by others is informative regarding the benefit from volunteering. We demonstrate that the interaction between this information and one’s private information makes it more likely that he or she will volunteer, given a higher level of contributions by his or her peers. We complement this theoretical work with an empirical analysis using Census 2000 Summary File 3 and Current Population Survey (CPS) 2004-2007 September supplement file data. We control for various individual and community characteristics, and employ robustness checks to verify the results of the baseline analysis. We additionally use an innovative instrumental variables strategy to account for reflection bias and endogeneity caused by selective sorting by individuals into neighbourhoods, which allows us to argue for a causal interpretation. The empirical results in the baseline, as well as all robustness analyses, verify the main result of our theoretical model, and we employ a more general structure to further strengthen our results.