Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Government Bond Returns

Peer reviewed

Interpretational variability of structural traps : implications for exploration risk and volume uncertainty

We would like to acknowledge and thank Frank Peel and Seb Turner for taking time to review this paper. Also thanks to Marguerite Fleming for perpetual encouragement. From: Richards, F. L., Richardson, N. J., Rippington, S. J., Wilson, R. W. & Bond, C. E. (eds) 2015. Industrial Structural Geology: Principles, Techniques and Integration. Geological Society, London,

Bullying Involvement and Adolescent Substance Use: A Study of Multilevel Risk and Protective Factors

Bullying, frequent drunkenness, and frequent cannabis use are significant health-risk behaviours among youth. While many studies have demonstrated that bullying involvement may initiate a developmental pathway to both types of frequent substance use, there is a limited understanding of the connection between these behaviours. The presence of risk and protective factors within youths’ relationships and within their neighbourhoods may alter the associations between bullying involvement and both types of frequent substance use. A systemic approach is needed to assess the complex, social environments in which youth are embedded. The current thesis consists of two studies that examined the associations between bullying and both types of frequent substance use within the context of youths’ social environments. In Study 1, multilevel modeling was used to examine the associations between bullying and frequent substance use within the context of individual and neighbourhood risk factors. Our results indicated that the risk factors associated with both frequent drunkenness and frequent cannabis use exist at both levels, with neighbourhoods altering the association of individual risk factors. Moreover, bullying was a unique risk factor associated with both types of frequent substance use, whereas indirect associations were observed for victimization. Study 2 used a similar methodology to examine the association between bullying and both types of frequent substance use within the context of individual and neighbourhood protective factors. Once again, our results indicated that the protective factors associated with both types of frequent substance use exist at multiple levels, and that neighbourhoods altered the association of individual protective factors. Additionally, positive relationship characteristics interacted with the link between bullying and both types of frequent substance use. Together, these findings clarify the nature of the bullying-substance use link and emphasize the need to study adolescent development in context.

Risk and benefits in lifestyle sports: parkour, law and social value

This paper examines the interrelationship between law and lifestyle sports, viewed through the lens of parkour. We argue that the literature relating to legal approaches to lifestyle sport is currently underdeveloped and so seek to partially fill this lacuna. Hitherto, we argue, the law has been viewed as a largely negative presence, seen particularly in terms of the ways in which counter-cultural activities are policed and regulated, and where such activities are viewed as transgressive or undesirable. We argue that this is a somewhat unsophisticated take on how the law can operate, with law constructed as an outcome of constraints to behaviour (where the law authorises or prohibits), distinct from the legal contexts, environments and spaces in which these relationships occur. We argue that the distinctive settings in which lifestyle sports are practiced needs a more fine-grained analysis as they are settings which bear, and bring to life, laws and regulations that shape how space is to be experienced. We examine specifically the interrelationship between risk and benefit and how the law recognises issues of social utility or value, particularly within the context of lifestyle sport. We seek to move from user-centred constructions of law as an imposition, to a more nuanced position that looks at parkour at the intersections of law, space and lifestyle sport, in order to reveal how law can be used to support and extend claims to space.

Archives and Copyright: Risk and Reform

This paper considers the place of the archive sector within the copyright regime, and how copyright impacts upon the preservation, access to, and use of archival holdings. It begins with a critical assessment of the current parameters of the UK copyright regime as it applies to the work of archivists, including recommendations for reform that have followed in the wake of the Gowers Review of Intellectual Property (2006-2010), the Hargreaves Review of Intellectual Property and Growth (2010-2011), the Consultation on Copyright (2011-12), as well as the government’s response thereto: Modernising Copyright (2012). It considers the various problems the copyright regime presents for archives undertaking mass digitisation projects as well as recent European and UK initiatives in this domain. It argues that the UK copyright regime, even when read in conjunction with current national and regional recommendations for reform, falls short of delivering a legal framework that would enable archivists to realise the full potential that comprehensive, universal online access to the country’s archival holdings would contribute to local and national democracy and accountability, to education, learning, and culture, and to the sense of identity and place for local people, communities and organisations. Ultimately, a case is made for the differential treatment of archives within the copyright regime – different, that is, from libraries and other related institutions operating within the cultural sector. The paper concludes with a policy recommendation that would greatly enhance the ability of archives to provide online access to their holdings, while at the same time safeguarding the economic interests of the authors and owners of copyright-protected work.

Complexity of risk: Mixed methods approach to understanding youth risk and insecurity in post-conflict settings

In settings of intergroup conflict, identifying contextually-relevant risk factors for youth development in an important task. In Vukovar, Croatia, a city devastated during the war in former Yugoslavia, ethno-political tensions remain. The current study utilized a mixed method approach to identify two salient community-level risk factors (ethnic tension and general antisocial behavior) and related emotional insecurity responses (ethnic and non-ethnic insecurity) among youth in Vukovar. In Study 1, focus group discussions (N=66) with mother, fathers, and adolescents 11 to 15-years-old were analyzed using the Constant Comparative Method, revealing two types of risk and insecurity responses. In Study 2, youth (N=227, 58% male, M=15.88 SD=1.12 years old) responded to quantitative scales developed from the focus groups; discriminate validity was demonstrated and path analyses established predictive validity between each type of risk and insecurity. First, community ethnic tension (i.e., threats related to war/ethnic identity) significantly predicted ethnic insecurity for all youth (β=.41, p<.001). Second, experience with community antisocial behavior (i.e., general crime found in any context) predicted non-ethnic community insecurity for girls (β=.32, p<.05), but not for boys. These findings are the first to show multiple forms of emotional insecurity at the community level; implications for future research are discussed.

Evidence for three genetic loci involved in both anorexia nervosa risk and variation of body mass index

The maintenance of normal body weight is disrupted in patients with anorexia nervosa (AN) for prolonged periods of time. Prior to the onset of AN, premorbid body mass index (BMI) spans the entire range from underweight to obese. After recovery, patients have reduced rates of overweight and obesity. As such, loci involved in body weight regulation may also be relevant for AN and vice versa. Our primary analysis comprised a cross-trait analysis of the 1000 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with the lowest P-values in a genome-wide association meta-analysis (GWAMA) of AN (GCAN) for evidence of association in the largest published GWAMA for BMI (GIANT). Subsequently we performed sex-stratified analyses for these 1000 SNPs. Functional ex vivo studies on four genes ensued. Lastly, a look-up of GWAMA-derived BMI-related loci was performed in the AN GWAMA. We detected significant associations (P-values <5 × 10(-5), Bonferroni-corrected P<0.05) for nine SNP alleles at three independent loci. Interestingly, all AN susceptibility alleles were consistently associated with increased BMI. None of the genes (chr. 10: CTBP2, chr. 19: CCNE1, chr. 2: CARF and NBEAL1; the latter is a region with high linkage disequilibrium) nearest to these SNPs has previously been associated with AN or obesity. Sex-stratified analyses revealed that the strongest BMI signal originated predominantly from females (chr. 10 rs1561589; Poverall: 2.47 × 10(-06)/Pfemales: 3.45 × 10(-07)/Pmales: 0.043). Functional ex vivo studies in mice revealed reduced hypothalamic expression of Ctbp2 and Nbeal1 after fasting. Hypothalamic expression of Ctbp2 was increased in diet-induced obese (DIO) mice as compared with age-matched lean controls. We observed no evidence for associations for the look-up of BMI-related loci in the AN GWAMA. A cross-trait analysis of AN and BMI loci revealed variants at three chromosomal loci with potential joint impact. The chromosome 10 locus is particularly promising given that the association with obesity was primarily driven by females. In addition, the detected altered hypothalamic expression patterns of Ctbp2 and Nbeal1 as a result of fasting and DIO implicate these genes in weight regulation.

In silico methods to evaluate Fracture Risk and Bone Mineral Density changes in patients undergoing Total Hip Replacement

La sostituzione totale d’anca è uno degli interventi chirurgici con le più alte percentuali di successo. Esistono due varianti di protesi d’anca che differiscono in base al metodo di ancoraggio all’osso: cementate (fissaggio tramite cemento osseo) e non cementate (fissaggio tramite forzamento). Ad oggi, i chirurghi non hanno indicazioni quantitative di supporto per la scelta fra le due tipologie di impianto, decidendo solo in base alla loro esperienza. Due delle problematiche che interessano le protesi non cementate sono la possibilità di frattura intra-operatoria durante l’inserimento forzato e il riassorbimento osseo nel periodo di tempo successivo all’intervento. A partire da rilevazioni densitometriche effettuate su immagini da TC di pazienti sottoposti a protesi d’anca non cementata, sono stati sviluppati due metodi: 1) per la valutazione del rischio di frattura intra-operatorio tramite analisi agli elementi finiti; 2) per la valutazione della variazione di densità minerale ossea (tridimensionalmente attorno alla protesi) dopo un anno dall’operazione. Un campione di 5 pazienti è stato selezionato per testare le procedure. Ciascuno dei pazienti è stato scansionato tramite TC in tre momenti differenti: una acquisita prima dell’operazione (pre-op), le altre due acquisite 24 ore (post 24h) e 1 anno dopo l’operazione (post 1y). I risultati ottenuti hanno confermato la fattibilità di entrambi i metodi, riuscendo inoltre a distinguere e a quantificare delle differenze fra i vari pazienti. La fattibilità di entrambe le metodologie suggerisce la loro possibilità di impiego in ambito clinico: 1) conoscere la stima del rischio di frattura intra-operatorio può servire come strumento di guida per il chirurgo nella scelta dell’impianto protesico ottimale; 2) conoscere la variazione di densità minerale ossea dopo un anno dall’operazione può essere utilizzato come strumento di monitoraggio post-operatorio del paziente.

Role of assessment components and recent adverse outcomes in risk estimation and prediction: use of the Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) in an adult secure inpatient mental health service

The Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability is a structured judgement tool used to inform risk estimation for multiple adverse outcomes. In research, risk estimates outperform the tool's strength and vulnerability scales for violence prediction. Little is known about what its’component parts contribute to the assignment of risk estimates and how those estimates fare in prediction of non-violent adverse outcomes compared with the structured components. START assessment and outcomes data from a secure mental health service (N=84) was collected. Binomial and multinomial regression analyses determined the contribution of selected elements of the START structured domain and recent adverse risk events to risk estimates and outcomes prediction for violence, self-harm/suicidality, victimisation, and self-neglect. START vulnerabilities and lifetime history of violence, predicted the violence risk estimate; self-harm and victimisation estimates were predicted only by corresponding recent adverse events. Recent adverse events uniquely predicted all corresponding outcomes, with the exception of self-neglect which was predicted by the strength scale. Only for victimisation did the risk estimate outperform prediction based on the START components and recent adverse events. In the absence of recent corresponding risk behaviour, restrictions imposed on the basis of START-informed risk estimates could be unwarranted and may be unethical.

Mediterranean diet: the impact on cardiovascular risk and metabolic syndrome in HIV patients, in Lisbon, Portugal

Introduction - Metabolic syndrome (MS) is common in HIV-infected individuals and it is associated with higher cardiovascular risk (CVR). Mediterranean diet has been associated with a better metabolic control and lower CVR. Materials and methods - From December 2013 to May 2014, individuals between 18 and 65 years of age, who attended the outpatient HIV Clinic at the University Hospital Santa Maria, Lisbon, were selected. Adherence to Mediterranean diet was evaluated with MedDietScore, a scale from 0 to 55 that punctuates 11 food items according to the frequency of intake. Higher scores represent higher adherence. CVR was assessed using D.A.D tool (classified as low, moderate or high risk). We excluded individuals with opportunistic disease, hospitalized in the past three months or with renal disease diagnosis. All participants gave written informed consent. Results - In the 571 HIV patients included, 67.1% (n=383) were male, 91.6% (n=523) Caucasian, with a mean age of 46.5±8.9 years. Patients were divided in two groups: naïve (7.5%; n=43) or on antiretroviral treatment (ART) (92.5%; n=528). Mean length of HIV diagnosis was 6.7±6.5 years (naïve) and 13.3±6.1 years (ART); TCD4+ counts were above 500 cel/mm3 in 55.8% (n=24) and 67.6% (n=357) of the patients, respectively. MS was present in 33.9% (n=179) of patients in ART group and 16.3% (n=7) in naïve group. Presence of MS was associated with ART group (OR=2.7; p=0.018). MS was also associated with older age in this group (p=0.000). Overall, mean MedDietScore was 27.3±5.5. Higher score was associated with older age (r=0.319; p=0.000). Naïve patients presented a trend to higher adherence to Mediterranean diet (65.1% vs 51.7% in naïve group; p=0.090). No relation between MS and Mediterranean diet was found. Higher CVR was associated with the presence of MS in the ART group (p=0.001). In this group, individuals with moderate CVR presented higher rates of adherence to Mediterranean diet (p=0.036) when compared to low and high CVR score. Conclusions - In this cross-sectional study, naïve individuals presented a trend to higher adherence to Mediterranean diet. On the ART group, higher adherence to Mediterranean diet was found in individuals with moderate CVR score. We think that this might suggest that this group of patients adopt this diet only in the presence of metabolic alterations or perceived CVR. Prospective studies in HIV patients are required to determine the impact of adherence to Mediterranean diet on the reduction of CVR.

Threats and thrills : pregnancy apps, risk and consumption

Live and Feeder Cattle Options Markets: Returns, Risk, and Volatility Forecasting

unpublished