Distribuição da renda entre salários e lucros na indústria de calçados de Franca de 1994 a 2002

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Enquanto isso na Sociedade de Consumo Líquido-Moderna: a produção de significados e a tomada de decisão de indivíduos-consumidores

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Métodos econométricos para a análise do índice de inflação no Brasil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Fiscal policy contradiction: a perspective on Brazil and Mexico

The aim of this paper is to discuss the quality of fiscal policy in Brazil and Mexico and investigate whether fiscal policy influence is favorable to reduce the unemployment rate. Public spending, which has a positive effect on the level of employment when results in additional aggregate demand, may cause a negative effect on employment, if its financing depends on persistent high interest rates. Brazil and Mexico have engaged in a long effort to control public spending and to reduce the public deficit to zero. Does this policy bring a positive result to the economic activity no matter how actual public deficit has been financed? We select variables related to public budget as public sector borrowing requirements, taxes, public debt and others to form a data base. The fiscal institutional arrangement and the data allow us to evaluate the fiscal policy as a who leand to discuss the importance of credibility and reputation of the government.

Essays on the political economy of European integration

Recently, a rising interest in political and economic integration/disintegration issues has been developed in the political economy field. This growing strand of literature partly draws on traditional issues of fiscal federalism and optimum public good provision and focuses on a trade-off between the benefits of centralization, arising from economies of scale or externalities, and the costs of harmonizing policies as a consequence of the increased heterogeneity of individual preferences in an international union or in a country composed of at least two regions. This thesis stems from this strand of literature and aims to shed some light on two highly relevant aspects of the political economy of European integration. The first concerns the role of public opinion in the integration process; more precisely, how economic benefits and costs of integration shape citizens' support for European Union (EU) membership. The second is the allocation of policy competences among different levels of government: European, national and regional. Chapter 1 introduces the topics developed in this thesis by reviewing the main recent theoretical developments in the political economy analysis of integration processes. It is structured as follows. First, it briefly surveys a few relevant articles on economic theories of integration and disintegration processes (Alesina and Spolaore 1997, Bolton and Roland 1997, Alesina et al. 2000, Casella and Feinstein 2002) and discusses their relevance for the study of the impact of economic benefits and costs on public opinion attitude towards the EU. Subsequently, it explores the links existing between such political economy literature and theories of fiscal federalism, especially with regard to normative considerations concerning the optimal allocation of competences in a union. Chapter 2 firstly proposes a model of citizens’ support for membership of international unions, with explicit reference to the EU; subsequently it tests the model on a panel of EU countries. What are the factors that influence public opinion support for the European Union (EU)? In international relations theory, the idea that citizens' support for the EU depends on material benefits deriving from integration, i.e. whether European integration makes individuals economically better off (utilitarian support), has been common since the 1970s, but has never been the subject of a formal treatment (Hix 2005). A small number of studies in the 1990s have investigated econometrically the link between national economic performance and mass support for European integration (Eichenberg and Dalton 1993; Anderson and Kalthenthaler 1996), but only making informal assumptions. The main aim of Chapter 2 is thus to propose and test our model with a view to providing a more complete and theoretically grounded picture of public support for the EU. Following theories of utilitarian support, we assume that citizens are in favour of membership if they receive economic benefits from it. To develop this idea, we propose a simple political economic model drawing on the recent economic literature on integration and disintegration processes. The basic element is the existence of a trade-off between the benefits of centralisation and the costs of harmonising policies in presence of heterogeneous preferences among countries. The approach we follow is that of the recent literature on the political economy of international unions and the unification or break-up of nations (Bolton and Roland 1997, Alesina and Wacziarg 1999, Alesina et al. 2001, 2005a, to mention only the relevant). The general perspective is that unification provides returns to scale in the provision of public goods, but reduces each member state’s ability to determine its most favoured bundle of public goods. In the simple model presented in Chapter 2, support for membership of the union is increasing in the union’s average income and in the loss of efficiency stemming from being outside the union, and decreasing in a country’s average income, while increasing heterogeneity of preferences among countries points to a reduced scope of the union. Afterwards we empirically test the model with data on the EU; more precisely, we perform an econometric analysis employing a panel of member countries over time. The second part of Chapter 2 thus tries to answer the following question: does public opinion support for the EU really depend on economic factors? The findings are broadly consistent with our theoretical expectations: the conditions of the national economy, differences in income among member states and heterogeneity of preferences shape citizens’ attitude towards their country’s membership of the EU. Consequently, this analysis offers some interesting policy implications for the present debate about ratification of the European Constitution and, more generally, about how the EU could act in order to gain more support from the European public. Citizens in many member states are called to express their opinion in national referenda, which may well end up in rejection of the Constitution, as recently happened in France and the Netherlands, triggering a European-wide political crisis. These events show that nowadays understanding public attitude towards the EU is not only of academic interest, but has a strong relevance for policy-making too. Chapter 3 empirically investigates the link between European integration and regional autonomy in Italy. Over the last few decades, the double tendency towards supranationalism and regional autonomy, which has characterised some European States, has taken a very interesting form in this country, because Italy, besides being one of the founding members of the EU, also implemented a process of decentralisation during the 1970s, further strengthened by a constitutional reform in 2001. Moreover, the issue of the allocation of competences among the EU, the Member States and the regions is now especially topical. The process leading to the drafting of European Constitution (even if then it has not come into force) has attracted much attention from a constitutional political economy perspective both on a normative and positive point of view (Breuss and Eller 2004, Mueller 2005). The Italian parliament has recently passed a new thorough constitutional reform, still to be approved by citizens in a referendum, which includes, among other things, the so called “devolution”, i.e. granting the regions exclusive competence in public health care, education and local police. Following and extending the methodology proposed in a recent influential article by Alesina et al. (2005b), which only concentrated on the EU activity (treaties, legislation, and European Court of Justice’s rulings), we develop a set of quantitative indicators measuring the intensity of the legislative activity of the Italian State, the EU and the Italian regions from 1973 to 2005 in a large number of policy categories. By doing so, we seek to answer the following broad questions. Are European and regional legislations substitutes for state laws? To what extent are the competences attributed by the European treaties or the Italian Constitution actually exerted in the various policy areas? Is their exertion consistent with the normative recommendations from the economic literature about their optimum allocation among different levels of government? The main results show that, first, there seems to be a certain substitutability between EU and national legislations (even if not a very strong one), but not between regional and national ones. Second, the EU concentrates its legislative activity mainly in international trade and agriculture, whilst social policy is where the regions and the State (which is also the main actor in foreign policy) are more active. Third, at least two levels of government (in some cases all of them) are significantly involved in the legislative activity in many sectors, even where the rationale for that is, at best, very questionable, indicating that they actually share a larger number of policy tasks than that suggested by the economic theory. It appears therefore that an excessive number of competences are actually shared among different levels of government. From an economic perspective, it may well be recommended that some competences be shared, but only when the balance between scale or spillover effects and heterogeneity of preferences suggests so. When, on the contrary, too many levels of government are involved in a certain policy area, the distinction between their different responsibilities easily becomes unnecessarily blurred. This may not only leads to a slower and inefficient policy-making process, but also risks to make it too complicate to understand for citizens, who, on the contrary, should be able to know who is really responsible for a certain policy when they vote in national,local or European elections or in referenda on national or European constitutional issues.

The Libor Market Model: from theory to calibration

This thesis is focused on the financial model for interest rates called the LIBOR Market Model. In the appendixes, we provide the necessary mathematical theory. In the inner chapters, firstly, we define the main interest rates and financial instruments concerning with the interest rate models, then, we set the LIBOR market model, demonstrate its existence, derive the dynamics of forward LIBOR rates and justify the pricing of caps according to the Black’s formula. Then, we also present the Swap Market Model, which models the forward swap rates instead of the LIBOR ones. Even this model is justified by a theoretical demonstration and the resulting formula to price the swaptions coincides with the Black’s one. However, the two models are not compatible from a theoretical point. Therefore, we derive various analytical approximating formulae to price the swaptions in the LIBOR market model and we explain how to perform a Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, we present the calibration of the LIBOR market model to the markets of both caps and swaptions, together with various examples of application to the historical correlation matrix and the cascade calibration of the forward volatilities to the matrix of implied swaption volatilities provided by the market.

Parameterschätzung in zeitdiskreten ergodischen Markov-Prozessen am Beispiel des Cox-Ingersoll-Ross-Modells

In dieser Arbeit geht es um die Schätzung von Parametern in zeitdiskreten ergodischen Markov-Prozessen im allgemeinen und im CIR-Modell im besonderen. Beim CIR-Modell handelt es sich um eine stochastische Differentialgleichung, die von Cox, Ingersoll und Ross (1985) zur Beschreibung der Dynamik von Zinsraten vorgeschlagen wurde. Problemstellung ist die Schätzung der Parameter des Drift- und des Diffusionskoeffizienten aufgrund von äquidistanten diskreten Beobachtungen des CIR-Prozesses. Nach einer kurzen Einführung in das CIR-Modell verwenden wir die insbesondere von Bibby und Sørensen untersuchte Methode der Martingal-Schätzfunktionen und -Schätzgleichungen, um das Problem der Parameterschätzung in ergodischen Markov-Prozessen zunächst ganz allgemein zu untersuchen. Im Anschluss an Untersuchungen von Sørensen (1999) werden hinreichende Bedingungen (im Sinne von Regularitätsvoraussetzungen an die Schätzfunktion) für die Existenz, starke Konsistenz und asymptotische Normalität von Lösungen einer Martingal-Schätzgleichung angegeben. Angewandt auf den Spezialfall der Likelihood-Schätzung stellen diese Bedingungen zugleich lokal-asymptotische Normalität des Modells sicher. Ferner wird ein einfaches Kriterium für Godambe-Heyde-Optimalität von Schätzfunktionen angegeben und skizziert, wie dies in wichtigen Spezialfällen zur expliziten Konstruktion optimaler Schätzfunktionen verwendet werden kann. Die allgemeinen Resultate werden anschließend auf das diskretisierte CIR-Modell angewendet. Wir analysieren einige von Overbeck und Rydén (1997) vorgeschlagene Schätzer für den Drift- und den Diffusionskoeffizienten, welche als Lösungen quadratischer Martingal-Schätzfunktionen definiert sind, und berechnen das optimale Element in dieser Klasse. Abschließend verallgemeinern wir Ergebnisse von Overbeck und Rydén (1997), indem wir die Existenz einer stark konsistenten und asymptotisch normalen Lösung der Likelihood-Gleichung zeigen und lokal-asymptotische Normalität für das CIR-Modell ohne Einschränkungen an den Parameterraum beweisen.

Essays in Macroeconomics

The dissertation consists of four papers that aim at providing new contributions in the field of macroeconomics, monetary policy and financial stability. The first paper proposes a new Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with credit frictions and a banking sector to study the pro-cyclicality of credit and the role of different prudential regulatory frameworks in affecting business cycle fluctuations and in restoring macroeconomic and financial stability. The second paper develops a simple DSGE model capable of evaluating the effects of large purchases of treasuries by central banks. This theoretical framework is employed to evaluate the impact on yields and the macroeconomy of large purchases of medium- and long-term government bonds recently implemented in the US and UK. The third paper studies the effects of ECB communications about unconventional monetary policy operations on the perceived sovereign risk of Italy over the last five years. The empirical results are derived from both an event-study analysis and a GARCH model, which uses Italian long-term bond futures to disentangle expected from unexpected policy actions. The fourth paper proposes a DSGE model with an endogenous term structure of interest rates, which is able to replicate the stylized facts regarding the yield curve and the term premium in the US over the period 1987:3-2011:3, without compromising its ability to match macro dynamics.

The interrelationship between monetary policy and the interbank money market during the financial crisis

Die vorliegende Dissertation besteht aus sechs Kapiteln und trägt zur Forschung in den Bereichen der Finanzmarktpolitik und der Geldpolitik bei. Das zweite Kapitel zeigt die Wechselbeziehung zwischen Geldmarktanspannungen und der Stabilität des Finanzsystems auf. Mittels der theoretischen Literatur werden verschiedene Einflussfaktoren einer aggregierten Liquiditätsnachfragefunktion präsentiert. Das dritte Kapitel untersucht den Informationsgehalt der Ergebnisse der Hauptrefinanzierungsgeschäfte für den europäischen Geldmarkt. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass sich seit der Finanzkrise der Informationsgehalt der Hauptrefinanzierungsgeschäfte in zweierlei Hinsicht verändert hat. Im vierten Kapitel untersuchen wir die Wirksamkeit der Geldpolitik während der Finanzkrise europäische Geldmarktzinssätze zu steuern. Die Ergebnisse deuten auf eine erhebliche Divergenz zwischen den Zinssätzen und den Erwartungen über die zukünftige Geldpolitik hin. Weiterhin finden wir heraus, dass die unkonventionellen Maßnahmen der EZB für einen Rückgang der Euriborsätze von bis zu 60 Basispunkten verantwortlich sind. Das fünfte Kapitel beschäftigt sich mit der Funktionsweise des besonderen geldpolitischen Instrumentariums der Schweizerischen Nationalbank.

Power Converters and Electric Drives for Smart Grid Applications

The present dissertation aims to explore, theoretically and experimentally, the problems and the potential advantages of different types of power converters for “Smart Grid” applications, with particular emphasis on multi-level architectures, which are attracting a rising interest even for industrial requests. The models of the main multilevel architectures (Diode-Clamped and Cascaded) are shown. The best suited modulation strategies to function as a network interface are identified. In particular, the close correlation between PWM (Pulse Width Modulation) approach and SVM (Space Vector Modulation) approach is highlighted. An innovative multilevel topology called MMC (Modular Multilevel Converter) is investigated, and the single-phase, three-phase and "back to back" configurations are analyzed. Specific control techniques that can manage, in an appropriate way, the charge level of the numerous capacitors and handle the power flow in a flexible way are defined and experimentally validated. Another converter that is attracting interest in “Power Conditioning Systems” field is the “Matrix Converter”. Even in this architecture, the output voltage is multilevel. It offers an high quality input current, a bidirectional power flow and has the possibility to control the input power factor (i.e. possibility to participate to active and reactive power regulations). The implemented control system, that allows fast data acquisition for diagnostic purposes, is described and experimentally verified.

Expressionsunterschiede verschiedener miRNAs bei chronisch-entzündlichen Darmerkrankungen

Chronisch-entzündliche Darmerkrankungen konfrontieren unsere heutige Gesellschaft mit hohen Inzidenzraten in der westlichen Welt und zunehmend steigenden Inzidenzraten im asiatischen Raum. Die Folgen für die Patienten sind eine starke Beeinträchtigung der Lebensqualität, mit sozialen und wirtschaftlichen Folgen sowie ein erhöhtes Risiko für die Entwicklung kolorektaler Karzinome. Durch die Entdeckung von 22 nt langen, regulierenden RNAs, auch genannt miRNAs, wurde ein neuer Baustein im Verständnis zellulärer Regelprozesse und der Differenzierung und Aktivierung von Antworten etwa des Immunsystems entdeckt. Somit stellt sich die Frage nach der Bedeutung von miRNAs im Rahmen von chronisch-entzündlichen Darmerkrankungen. Hierzu wurden in dieser Arbeit über ein miRNA-Array System 12 miRNAs als potentiell relevante Ziele identifiziert und an einem Kollektiv aus insgesamt 131 Patienten und 163 Biopsien aus dem Bereich des Darmes überprüft. Es zeigte sich hierbei, dass im Rahmen eines Morbus Crohn mit Befall des Dickdarms die miRNAs let-7d und miR-22 in gesteigerter Expression vorlagen. Da im terminalen Ileum eine gesonderte Immunsituation vorliegt, wurde dieser Bereich zusätzlich bei der Erkrankung Morbus Crohn untersucht. Es zeigten sich Expressionsveränderungen für die miRNAs miR-30e, miR-185, miR-374b und miR-424. Bei Patienten mit einer Colitis ulcerosa waren die miRNAs let-7d, miR-185 und miR-424 in ihrem Expressionsverhalten verändert. Zusätzlich konnte gezeigt werden, dass in Abhängigkeit vom Entzündungsgrad bei bestehender Colitis ulcerosa eine zunehmenden Überexpression der miRNAs let-7d, miR-185 und miR-424 erfolgte. Die miRNAs miR-18a und miR-185 wiesen unter Remissionsbedingungen Expressionsveränderungen auf und lassen somit den Verdacht eines protektiven Effektes aufkommen. Mit Hilfe von computerbasierten Datenbankanalysen konnten gemeinsam regulierenden miRNAs Proteine und Pathways zugeordnet werden, welche einen Zusammenhang mit bereits pathogenetisch bestätigten Signalwegen wie etwa dem nF-ĸB und MAPK-Signalweg nahelegen. Auch konnte herausgearbeitet werden, dass einige, der von diesen miRNAs regulierten Proteine, bereits in veröffentlichten Arbeiten als fehlreguliert festgestellt wurden, jedoch blieb die Ursache dieser Fehlregulation gänzlich unbekannt. Mit den in dieser Arbeit erhobenen Daten konnte gezeigt werden, dass eine Kongruenz der Befunde vorliegt, welche einen Zusammenhang der miRNA-Expression mit der Fehlregulation bestimmter Proteine nicht nur nahelegt, sondern darüber hinaus auch noch einige weitere potentielle Proteinziele für weitere Untersuchungen aufführt. Dazu ist es jedoch notwendig, die Relevanz der hier entdeckten, computerbasierten Proteine in zukünftigen Untersuchungen einer genauen Prüfung zu unterziehen.

Essays in Macroecometrics: methodological aspects and empirical applications

In the first chapter, I develop a panel no-cointegration test which extends Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001)'s bounds test to the panel framework by considering the individual regressions in a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) system. This allows to take into account unobserved common factors that contemporaneously affect all the units of the panel and provides, at the same time, unit-specific test statistics. Moreover, the approach is particularly suited when the number of individuals of the panel is small relatively to the number of time series observations. I develop the algorithm to implement the test and I use Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the properties of the test. The small sample properties of the test are remarkable, compared to its single equation counterpart. I illustrate the use of the test through a test of Purchasing Power Parity in a panel of EU15 countries. In the second chapter of my PhD thesis, I verify the Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure in the repurchasing agreements (repo) market with a new testing approach. I consider an "inexact" formulation of the EHTS, which models a time-varying component in the risk premia and I treat the interest rates as a non-stationary cointegrated system. The effect of the heteroskedasticity is controlled by means of testing procedures (bootstrap and heteroskedasticity correction) which are robust to variance and covariance shifts over time. I fi#nd that the long-run implications of EHTS are verified. A rolling window analysis clarifies that the EHTS is only rejected in periods of turbulence of #financial markets. The third chapter introduces the Stata command "bootrank" which implements the bootstrap likelihood ratio rank test algorithm developed by Cavaliere et al. (2012). The command is illustrated through an empirical application on the term structure of interest rates in the US.

The Retirement Behaviour of Older Workers in Transitional Economies

Research has shown that public pay-as-you-go, defined-benefit pension plans penalise those who stay at work beyond a certain age by reducing the present discounted value of future retirement benefits. In discussions on the effectiveness of policies aimed at eliminating the age-dependency factor in workers' decisions to retire, it is often assumed either that the benefits in all future periods have the same weight in the present discounted value or that the discount rate is close to unity due to low real interest rates used in this case. Galuscak first considered the U.S. pension scheme, showing that discounting plays a crucial role since the formula for the present discounted value of future retirement benefits is sensitive to the discount rate used. He then analysed the role of social security incentives and retirement provisions on older workers' behaviour in the labour markets of the Czech and Slovak Republics and the effect of the macroeconomic environment on workers' decisions to retire. He calculated the optimal parameters of the Czech and Slovak pension rules and assessed the potential effectiveness of changes to the Czech scheme introduced in January 1996.

[New strategies for fertility preservation in young women with cancer]

Especially young women with cancer face rising survival rates due to remarkable progress in oncologic therapies. Preserving fertility is a major concern for both patients and their next of kin. Well established reproductive technologies such as cryopreservation of fertilized oocytes after in vitro fertilization already make fertility preservation possible for some patients. This review is dedicated to the emerging techniques that are becoming widely accepted for fertility preservation in young women and girls with cancer, such as auto transplantation of ovarian tissue cryopreservation and in vitro maturation (IVM) of either oocytes or follicles. First results are encouraging. But some challenges still have to be tackled in order for these novel technologies to be routinely employed with the aim of successful fertility preservation.

Action Research and Learning Analytics in Higher Education

Teaching is a dynamic activity. It can be very effective, if its impact is constantly monitored and adjusted to the demands of changing social contexts and needs of learners. This implies that teachers need to be aware about teaching and learning processes. Moreover, they should constantly question their didactical methods and the learning resources, which they provide to their students. They should reflect if their actions are suitable, and they should regulate their teaching, e.g., by updating learning materials based on new knowledge about learners, or by motivating learners to engage in further learning activities. In the last years, a rising interest in ‘learning analytics’ is observable. This interest is motivated by the availability of massive amounts of educational data. Also, the continuously increasing processing power, and a strong motivation for discovering new information from these pools of educational data, is pushing further developments within the learning analytics research field. Learning analytics could be a method for reflective teaching practice that enables and guides teachers to investigate and evaluate their work in future learning scenarios. However, this potentially positive impact has not yet been sufficiently verified by learning analytics research. Another method that pursues these goals is ‘action research’. Learning analytics promises to initiate action research processes because it facilitates awareness, reflection and regulation of teaching activities analogous to action research. Therefore, this thesis joins both concepts, in order to improve the design of learning analytics tools. Central research question of this thesis are: What are the dimensions of learning analytics in relation to action research, which need to be considered when designing a learning analytics tool? How does a learning analytics dashboard impact the teachers of technology-enhanced university lectures regarding ‘awareness’, ‘reflection’ and ‘action’? Does it initiate action research? Which are central requirements for a learning analytics tool, which pursues such effects? This project followed design-based research principles, in order to answer these research questions. The main contributions are: a theoretical reference model that connects action research and learning analytics, the conceptualization and implementation of a learning analytics tool, a requirements catalogue for useful and usable learning analytics design based on evaluations, a tested procedure for impact analysis, and guidelines for the introduction of learning analytics into higher education.