Três ensaios sobre política monetária e crédito

In the first essay, "Determinants of Credit Expansion in Brazil", analyzes the determinants of credit using an extensive bank level panel dataset. Brazilian economy has experienced a major boost in leverage in the first decade of 2000 as a result of a set factors ranging from macroeconomic stability to the abundant liquidity in international financial markets before 2008 and a set of deliberate decisions taken by President Lula's to expand credit, boost consumption and gain political support from the lower social strata. As relevant conclusions to our investigation we verify that: credit expansion relied on the reduction of the monetary policy rate, international financial markets are an important source of funds, payroll-guaranteed credit and investment grade status affected positively credit supply. We were not able to confirm the importance of financial inclusion efforts. The importance of financial sector sanity indicators of credit conditions cannot be underestimated. These results raise questions over the sustainability of this expansion process and financial stability in the future. The second essay, “Public Credit, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability”, discusses the role of public credit. The supply of public credit in Brazil has successfully served to relaunch the economy after the Lehman-Brothers demise. It was later transformed into a driver for economic growth as well as a regulation device to force private banks to reduce interest rates. We argue that the use of public funds to finance economic growth has three important drawbacks: it generates inflation, induces higher loan rates and may induce financial instability. An additional effect is the prevention of market credit solutions. This study contributes to the understanding of the costs and benefits of credit as a fiscal policy tool. The third essay, “Bayesian Forecasting of Interest Rates: Do Priors Matter?”, discusses the choice of priors when forecasting short-term interest rates. Central Banks that commit to an Inflation Target monetary regime are bound to respond to inflation expectation spikes and product hiatus widening in a clear and transparent way by abiding to a Taylor rule. There are various reports of central banks being more responsive to inflationary than to deflationary shocks rendering the monetary policy response to be indeed non-linear. Besides that there is no guarantee that coefficients remain stable during time. Central Banks may switch to a dual target regime to consider deviations from inflation and the output gap. The estimation of a Taylor rule may therefore have to consider a non-linear model with time varying parameters. This paper uses Bayesian forecasting methods to predict short-term interest rates. We take two different approaches: from a theoretic perspective we focus on an augmented version of the Taylor rule and include the Real Exchange Rate, the Credit-to-GDP and the Net Public Debt-to-GDP ratios. We also take an ”atheoretic” approach based on the Expectations Theory of the Term Structure to model short-term interest. The selection of priors is particularly relevant for predictive accuracy yet, ideally, forecasting models should require as little a priori expert insight as possible. We present recent developments in prior selection, in particular we propose the use of hierarchical hyper-g priors for better forecasting in a framework that can be easily extended to other key macroeconomic indicators.

Optimal-state-dependent rules, credibility, and inflationary inertia

This paper examines the output losses caused by disinflation and the role of credibility in a model where pricing mIes are optimal and individual prices are rigid. Individual nominal rigidity is modeled as resulting from menu costs. The interaction between optimal pricing mIes and credibility is essential in determining the inflationary inertia. A continued period of high inflation generates an asymmetric distribution of price deviations, with more prices that are substantially lower than their desired leveIs than prices that are substantially higher than the optimal ones. When disinflation is not credible, inflationary inertia is engendered by this asymmetry: idiosyncratic shocks trigger more upward than downward adjustments. A perfect1y credible disinflation causes an immediate change of pricing rules which, by rendering the price deviation distribution less asymmetric, practically annihilates inflationary inertia. An implication of our model is that stabilization may be sucessful even when credibility is low, provided that it is preceded by a mechanism of price alignment. We also develop an analytical framework for analyzing imperfect credibility cases.

Presença da FGV-EAESP na formação de administradores para a área da saúde: resultados de 30 anos de trabalho

O trabalho busca conhecer e analisar as atividades da FGV-EAESP na formação, geração e divulgação de conhecimentos e prestação de serviços na área de gestão de saúde no Brasil, desde o primeiro curso de especialização em administração hospitalar e de sistemas de saúde por ela realizado em 1975. A institucionalização da área, com a criação do Centro de Estudos de Gestão e Planejamento em Saúde, a definição de uma linha de pesquisa produtiva junto à pós-graduação, a regularidade no oferecimento de programas de educação continuada são abordados, bem como o perfil dos alunos e a inserção profissional dos ex-alunos.

Monopólio postal e litigância predatória pelos correios

Este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar o comportamento da Empresa Brasileira de Correios e Telégrafos (ECT) no âmbito judicial diante de seus concorrentes e os clientes destes, buscando verificar se há evidências de que a empresa estaria praticando um ilícito concorrencial e utilizando o judiciário para prejudicar concorrentes no mercado e dificultar a entrada de novos agentes (ou seja, se haveria litigância predatória pelos Correios), mediante a criação de novos custos aos seus rivais e, assim, prejudicando a competição no setor postal. No âmbito jurídico, há pouca clareza quanto à extensão do monopólio postal e verifica-se, uma carência de política pública para o setor. Para realizar o estudo, foi analisado o contexto no qual se insere a conduta da ECT e foi elaborada uma base de dados a partir da análise de processos judiciais movidos pela ECT. Na análise empírica dos dados coletados, buscou-se avaliar como a decisão do STF sobre a existência e validade de uma exclusividade da ECT na prestação de certos serviços postais, tais quais definidos por lei, afetou a probabilidade de uma decisão final em 1ª instância ser favorável aos Correios. Os resultados indicaram que tal probabilidade é significativamente menor após a decisão do STF em 2009, o que serve de evidência de que a ECT vinha extrapolando seus direitos nos pedidos realizados judicialmente. Apesar de o contexto no qual a conduta se insere, especialmente quanto aos custos de litigar, indicarem racionalidade na conduta e de a análise empírica ir no mesmo sentido, as evidências não são fortes o suficiente para se concluir que a ECT praticou litigância predatória.

Contratações Públicas no Setor de Resíduos Sólidos: Um estudo sobre as formas de contratação, delegação e gestão das atividades econômicas e serviços públicos relacionados ao setor de resíduos sólidos

Existem diversas formas no ordenamento jurídico brasileiro mediante as quais o poder público pode contratar, delegar ou gerir a prestação de serviços que envolvam entes privados. São elas os contratos de mera prestação de serviços regidos pela Lei 8.666/93 ou pela Lei 10.520/02; os convênios; as concessões comuns de serviço público regidas pela Lei nº 8.987/95; as parcerias público-privadas tuteladas pela Lei 11.079/04 e os consórcios públicos regidos pela Lei nº 11.107/05. O presente trabalho visa explorar como as contratações públicas ocorrem no setor de resíduos sólidos. Para isso, em um primeiro momento foi analisada a natureza jurídica dos serviços relacionados ao manejo de resíduos. Em um segundo momento, foi traçado um panorama sobre as modelagens contratuais disponíveis ao poder público para realizar essas contratações, bem como os possíveis problemas levantados pela doutrina no uso desses moldes. Por último, foram analisados casos concretos com o fim de averiguar se os referidos problemas são levados em consideração pelo Administrador Público ao elaborar os editais e contratos para prestação desses serviços pela iniciativa privada.

The Limits of political compromise: debt ceilings and political competition

We study the desirability of limits on the public debt and of political competition in an economy where political parties alternate in office. Due to rent-seeking motives, incumbents have an incentive to set public expenditures above the socially optimal level. Parties cannot commit to future policies, but they can forge a political compromise where each party curbs excessive spending when in office if it expects future governments to do the same. In contrast to the received literature, we find that strict limits on government borrowing can exacerbate political-economy distortions by rendering a political compromise unsustainable. This tends to happen when political competition is limited. Conversely, a tight limit on the public debt fosters a compromise that yields the efficient outcome when political competition is vigorous, saving the economy from immiseration. Our analysis thus suggests a legislative tradeoff between restricting political competition and constraining the ability of governments to issue debt.

A Racionalidade jurídica da Corte Interamericana de Direitos Humanos no caso Gomes Lund e outros VS Brasil

Mesmo após trinta anos de consolidação democrática no Brasil o tema da justiça de transição ainda faz parte do nosso debate jurídico. Atualmente vive-se uma insegurança jurídica quanto à validade da lei de anistia brasileira, uma vez que o Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) e a Corte Interamericana de Direitos Humanos (CorteIDH) julgaram a questão em sentidos opostos. Almejando contribuir para esse debate, tendo como objeto a decisão da CorteIDH, o presente artigo busca responder aos seguintes questionamentos: Ao julgar caso Gomes Lund e outros vs Brasil, quais foram os principais temas abordados pela CorteIDH que fez com que ela chegasse à conclusão de que a lei de anistia brasileira é inválida? Como se deu sua construção argumentativa, e quais foram suas principais fontes de embasamento normativo e jurisprudencial? Em suma, qual foi a racionalidade jurídica da Corte no julgamento desse caso? Para responder a essas perguntas de pesquisa buscou-se levantar indutivamente as principais questões abordadas na sentença e problematizar a responsabilidade do Brasil em relação ao Sistema Interamericano de Direitos Humanos.

Conselho Municipal de Saúde de Pedras de Fogo - PB: um estudo sobre participação

The present study aims to understand the process of Participation of the Health Council- CMS in the formularization, implementation and control of the Municipal health plan of Pedras de Fogo, through four criteria of quality of participation considered by Demo (1993): representation, legitimacy, base participation, and self-responsibility. The criteria of representation is related to the quality of politics of the representative over the representings. Legitimacy is related to the politics` quality of the process of participation based on norms and rules that stipulate the participation, the base participation is a necessary political support so that the power authorization directed to the representings can be effective and the self-responsibility refers to the capacity of being responsible when it concerns to the public service or property. Through the descriptive and exploratory study a qualitative method was adopted to consider the conditions of the participation of the twelve council members of the City council of Health of Pedras de Fogo, through a formulated Instrument based on the criteria of DEMO (1993). It was concluded that the quality of the participation of the council members of the CMS of Pedras de Fogo understands essential aspects of the criteria of quality considered by Demo (1993) but it shows fragilities as unfamiliarity with the norms that legitimize the performance of the council; unfamiliarity of its condition of being an agent and the importance of the participation of the base for the reinforcement of its participation, as well as inertia related to the check and rendering of accounts on its performance. This way it makes sense that the participation of the council in the four criteria of quality of politics considered in this paper needs to improve

Implementação de software livre na administração pública: um estudo de múltiplos casos no Estado do Rio Grande do Norte

New technologies appear each moment and its use can result in countless benefits for that they directly use and for all the society as well. In this direction, the State also can use the technologies of the information and communication to improve the level of rendering of services to the citizens, to give more quality of life to the society and to optimize the public expense, centering it in the main necessities. For this, it has many research on politics of Electronic Government (e-Gov) and its main effect for the citizen and the society as a whole. This research studies the concept of Electronic Government and wishes to understand the process of implementation of Free Softwares in the agencies of the Direct Administration in the Rio Grande do Norte. Moreover, it deepens the analysis to identify if its implantation results in reduction of cost for the state treasury and intends to identify the Free Software participation in the Administration and the bases of the politics of Electronic Government in this State. Through qualitative interviews with technologies coordinators and managers in 3 State Secretaries it could be raised the ways that come being trod for the Government in order to endow the State with technological capacity. It was perceived that the Rio Grande do Norte still is an immature State in relation to practical of electronic government (e-Gov) and with Free Softwares, where few agencies have factual and viable initiatives in this area. It still lacks of a strategical definition of the paper of Technology and more investments in infrastructure of staff and equipment. One also observed advances as the creation of the normative agency, the CETIC (State Advice of Technology of the Information and Communication), the Managing Plan of Technology that provide a necessary diagnosis with the situation how much Technology in the State and considered diverse goals for the area, the accomplishment of a course of after-graduation for managers of Technology and the training in BrOffice (OppenOffice) for 1120 public servers

Influência das áreas verdes no microclima local: um estudo do conjunto habitacional Ponta Negra, Natal/RN

Owing to na intense process of urban development, urban uneasiness and discomfort in the daily life of populations have nowadays, especially in the big cities, become increasingly ordinary issues. Population density, degeneration of central areas and pollution are some of the environmental stressors the urban man is subjected to. The existence of open areas in the urban network contributes to a better movement of the air and transforms salubrity conditions. Yet, it has been noticed that parks and squares are disappearing from the heart of the city districts. In their place there are either unused plots of land where garbage has been dumped or nearly all-paved squares with meager or no vegetation at all. Such areas, when handled properly, play an important role in the city because in addition to being zones for rendering a mild climate they perform social, cultural and hygienic functions. Aiming at demonstrating that proper handling of green areas can favorably influence the local microclimate, we have attempted to develop analysis from the point of view of bioclimatizing attributes of urban form and their relationship to the local microclimate found in the eight open areas located in the Ponta Negra Housing Complex in the city of Natal/RN

Clima urbano e vegetação: estudo analítico e prospectivo do Parque das Dunas em Natal

The present study deals with the relationship between urban vegetation and climate. The process whereby the Parque das Dunas a 1,172 ha green area in the city of Natal, State of Rio Grande do Norte exerts influence on the climate of the city is analyzed. The hypothesis on which the present work rests is that the green area referred to acts upon the climate of the city. The study is based on the analysis of climatic factors and elements of this green area and of the city of Natal. In order to give rise to final recommendations, a methodology grounded on a quantitative and qualitative standpoint has been used. The data were collected both within and without the limits of the Parque das Dunas area. Secondary and primary data resulting from the measurements taken by the researcher and her work group have been used. The aim was to contribute to the understanding of the influence of vegetation on the climate of a city having a warm and humid climate. A historical and environmental characterization of the Parque das Dunas was then sought. The local climatic factors and the elements of the climate have been studied within the scope of the city of Natal. A comparative study between the climatic elements within and without the limits of the Parque das Dunas area from the survey of technical data and the systematization of the information collected has been made, aiming at proposing a set of bioclimatic recommendations for the urban design in Natal. The results of such work allowed for the validation of the important role that the Parque das Dunas plays in the climate of Natal. This has led to the acknowledgement of the relevance of the green areas on the climate of cities. They bring about important benefits to the process of rendering agreeable the climate in the urban environment by providing pleasant microclimates that give a valuable contribution to the environmental comfort of urban nuclei having the same size of Natal

Digestibility for dogs and cats of meat and bone meal processed at two different temperature and pressure levels

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Computed tomographic-dacryocystography (CT-DCG) of the normal canine nasolacrimal drainage system with three-dimensional reconstruction

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Liberdade de expressão artística: concepções filosóficas, fundamentalidade constitucional e política da pluralidade

The right to artistic expression, freedom granted in the western democratic constitutionalism, is a fundamental right that cyclically, compared to other cohesive rights of expression, has been forgotten and put in an irrelevant juridical-dogmatic position. The first reason for this behaviour that disesteems artistic freedom is the valorisation of rationalism and scientificism in the modern society, subordinating academic researches to utilitarianism, relegating the purpose of feelings and spirituality on men s elocution, therefore, we investigate, guided by philosophy, the attribution of art on human formation, due to its capacity in harmonising reason and emotion. After that, we affirm the fundamental right to artistic expression s autonomy in the 1988 valid constitutional order, after a comparative explanation of freedom in the Fundamental Laws of United States, Portugal, Spain and Germany; and the construction historic-constitutional of the same right in the Brazilian Constitutions. In this desiderate, the theoric mark chosen is the Liberal Theory of the fundamental rights, guiding the exam through jusfundamental dimensions: juridical-subjective and juridical-objective. Whilst the first, classical function of resistance, delimitates the protection area of the artistic expression right from its specific content, titularity and its constitutional and subconstitutional limits, the other one establishes it as cultural good of the Social Order, defining to the State its rendering duties of protection, formation and cultural promotion. We do not admit artistic communication, granted without legal reserve, to be transposed of restrictions that belong to other fundamental rights and, when its exercise collides with another fundamental right or juridical-constitutional good, the justification to a possible state intervention that tangentiates its protection area goes, necessarily, through the perquisition of the artist s animus, the used method, the many viable interpretations and, at last, the correct application of the proportionality criteria. The cultural public politics analysis, nevertheless, observes the pluralism principle of democratic substratum, developer of the cultural dialogue and opposed to patterns determined by the mass cultural industry. All powers are attached, on the scope of its typical attributions, to materialise public politics that have the cultural artistic good as its aim, due to the constant rule contained in §1, art. 5º of the Federal Constitution. However, the access and the incentive laws to culture must be constantly supervised by the constitutional parameter of fundamental right to equality