Study of noncollinear quasi-phase matching optical parametric amplification with group-velocity matching based on periodically poled crystals

The properties of noncollinear optical parametric amplification (NOPA) based on quasi-phase matching of periodically poled crystals are investigated, under the condition that the group velocity matching (GVM) of the signal and idler pulses is satisfied. Our study focuses on the dependence of the gain spectrum upon the noncollinear angle, crystal temperature, and crystal angle with periodically poled KTiOPO4 (PPKTP), periodically poled LiNbO3 (PPLN), and periodically poled LiTaO3 (PPLT), and the NOPA gain properties of the three crystals are compared. Broad gain bandwidth exists above 85 nm at a signal wavelength of 800 nm with a 532 nm pump pulse, with proper noncollinear angle and grating period at a fixed temperature for GVM. Deviation from the group-velocity-matched noncollinear angle can be compensated by accurately tuning the crystal angle or temperature with a fixed grating period for phase matching. Moreover, there is a large capability of crystal angle tuning.

Effects of relative phase in an open ladder system without incoherent pumping

We studied effects of the relative phase between the probe and driving fields on the absorption and dispersion properties in an open three-level ladder system with spontaneously generated coherence but without incoherent pumping. It is shown that by the phase controlling, switching from absorption to lasing without inversion (LWI) and enhancing remarkablely LWI gain can be realized; large index of refraction with zero absorption and the electromagnetically induced transparency can be obtained. We also find that varying the atomic injection and exit rates has a considerable influence on the phase dependent-absorption property of the probe field, existent of the atomic injection and exit rates gives the necessary condition of the realization of LWI, getting LWI is impossible in the corresponding closed system without incoherent pumping. We studied effects of the relative phase between the probe and driving fields on the absorption and dispersion properties in an open three-level ladder system with spontaneously generated coherence but without incoherent pumping. It is shown that by the phase controlling, switching from absorption to lasing without inversion (LWI) and enhancing remarkablely LWI gain can be realized; large index of refraction with zero absorption and the electromagnetically induced transparency can be obtained. We also find that varying the atomic injection and exit rates has a considerable influence on the phase dependent-absorption property of the probe field, existent of the atomic injection and exit rates gives the necessary condition of the realization of LWI, getting LWI is impossible in the corresponding closed system without incoherent pumping.

Towards understanding the mixing characteristics of turbulent buoyant flows

This work proposes a new simulation methodology in which variable density turbulent flows can be studied in the context of a mixing layer with or without the presence of gravity. Specifically, this methodology is developed to probe the nature of non-buoyantly-driven (i.e. isotropically-driven) or buoyantly-driven mixing deep inside a mixing layer. Numerical forcing methods are incorporated into both the velocity and scalar fields, which extends the length of time over which mixing physics can be studied. The simulation framework is designed to allow for independent variation of four non-dimensional parameters, including the Reynolds, Richardson, Atwood, and Schmidt numbers. Additionally, the governing equations are integrated in such a way to allow for the relative magnitude of buoyant energy production and non-buoyant energy production to be varied.

The computational requirements needed to implement the proposed configuration are presented. They are justified in terms of grid resolution, order of accuracy, and transport scheme. Canonical features of turbulent buoyant flows are reproduced as validation of the proposed methodology. These features include the recovery of isotropic Kolmogorov scales under buoyant and non-buoyant conditions, the recovery of anisotropic one-dimensional energy spectra under buoyant conditions, and the preservation of known statistical distributions in the scalar field, as found in other DNS studies.

This simulation methodology is used to perform a parametric study of turbulent buoyant flows to discern the effects of varying the Reynolds, Richardson, and Atwood numbers on the resulting state of mixing. The effects of the Reynolds and Atwood numbers are isolated by looking at two energy dissipation rate conditions under non-buoyant (variable density) and constant density conditions. The effects of Richardson number are isolated by varying the ratio of buoyant energy production to total energy production from zero (non-buoyant) to one (entirely buoyant) under constant Atwood number, Schmidt number, and energy dissipation rate conditions. It is found that the major differences between non-buoyant and buoyant turbulent flows are contained in the transfer spectrum and longitudinal structure functions, while all other metrics are largely similar (e.g. energy spectra, alignment characteristics of the strain-rate tensor). Also, despite the differences noted between fully buoyant and non-buoyant turbulent fields, the scalar field, in all cases, is unchanged by these. The mixing dynamics in the scalar field are found to be insensitive to the source of turbulent kinetic energy production (non-buoyant vs. buoyant).

Velocity resolved - scalar modeled simulations of high Schmidt number turbulent transport

The objective of this thesis is to develop a framework to conduct velocity resolved - scalar modeled (VR-SM) simulations, which will enable accurate simulations at higher Reynolds and Schmidt (Sc) numbers than are currently feasible. The framework established will serve as a first step to enable future simulation studies for practical applications. To achieve this goal, in-depth analyses of the physical, numerical, and modeling aspects related to Sc>>1 are presented, specifically when modeling in the viscous-convective subrange. Transport characteristics are scrutinized by examining scalar-velocity Fourier mode interactions in Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) datasets and suggest that scalar modes in the viscous-convective subrange do not directly affect large-scale transport for high Sc. Further observations confirm that discretization errors inherent in numerical schemes can be sufficiently large to wipe out any meaningful contribution from subfilter models. This provides strong incentive to develop more effective numerical schemes to support high Sc simulations. To lower numerical dissipation while maintaining physically and mathematically appropriate scalar bounds during the convection step, a novel method of enforcing bounds is formulated, specifically for use with cubic Hermite polynomials. Boundedness of the scalar being transported is effected by applying derivative limiting techniques, and physically plausible single sub-cell extrema are allowed to exist to help minimize numerical dissipation. The proposed bounding algorithm results in significant performance gain in DNS of turbulent mixing layers and of homogeneous isotropic turbulence. Next, the combined physical/mathematical behavior of the subfilter scalar-flux vector is analyzed in homogeneous isotropic turbulence, by examining vector orientation in the strain-rate eigenframe. The results indicate no discernible dependence on the modeled scalar field, and lead to the identification of the tensor-diffusivity model as a good representation of the subfilter flux. Velocity resolved - scalar modeled simulations of homogeneous isotropic turbulence are conducted to confirm the behavior theorized in these a priori analyses, and suggest that the tensor-diffusivity model is ideal for use in the viscous-convective subrange. Simulations of a turbulent mixing layer are also discussed, with the partial objective of analyzing Schmidt number dependence of a variety of scalar statistics. Large-scale statistics are confirmed to be relatively independent of the Schmidt number for Sc>>1, which is explained by the dominance of subfilter dissipation over resolved molecular dissipation in the simulations. Overall, the VR-SM framework presented is quite effective in predicting large-scale transport characteristics of high Schmidt number scalars, however, it is determined that prediction of subfilter quantities would entail additional modeling intended specifically for this purpose. The VR-SM simulations presented in this thesis provide us with the opportunity to overlap with experimental studies, while at the same time creating an assortment of baseline datasets for future validation of LES models, thereby satisfying the objectives outlined for this work.

I. A seismotectonic study of the Middle America Subduction Zone. II. Lithosphere and upper mantle structure of the Canadian Shield and Eastern North America

This thesis consists of two separate parts. Part I (Chapter 1) is concerned with seismotectonics of the Middle America subduction zone. In this chapter, stress distribution and Benioff zone geometry are investigated along almost 2000 km of this subduction zone, from the Rivera Fracture Zone in the north to Guatemala in the south. Particular emphasis is placed on the effects on stress distribution of two aseismic ridges, the Tehuantepec Ridge and the Orozco Fracture Zone, which subduct at seismic gaps. Stress distribution is determined by studying seismicity distribution, and by analysis of 190 focal mechanisms, both new and previously published, which are collected here. In addition, two recent large earthquakes that have occurred near the Tehuantepec Ridge and the Orozco Fracture Zone are discussed in more detail. A consistent stress release pattern is found along most of the Middle America subduction zone: thrust events at shallow depths, followed down-dip by an area of low seismic activity, followed by a zone of normal events at over 175 km from the trench and 60 km depth. The zone of low activity is interpreted as showing decoupling of the plates, and the zone of normal activity as showing the breakup of the descending plate. The portion of subducted lithosphere containing the Orozco Fracture Zone does not differ significantly, in Benioff zone geometry or in stress distribution, from adjoining segments. The Playa Azul earthquake of October 25, 1981, M_s=7.3, occurred in this area. Body and surface wave analysis of this event shows a simple source with a shallow thrust mechanism and gives M_o=1.3x10²⁷ dyne-cm. A stress drop of about 45 bars is calculated; this is slightly higher than that of other thrust events in this subduction zone. In the Tehuantepec Ridge area, only minor differences in stress distribution are seen relative to adjoining segments. For both ridges, the only major difference from adjoining areas is the infrequency or lack of occurrence of large interplate thrust events.

Part II involves upper mantle P wave structure studies, for the Canadian shield and eastern North America. In Chapter 2, the P wave structure of the Canadian shield is determined through forward waveform modeling of the phases P_nl, P, and PP. Effects of lateral heterogeneity are kept to a minimum by using earthquakes just outside the shield as sources, with propagation paths largely within the shield. Previous mantle structure studies have used recordings of P waves in the upper mantle triplication range of 15-30°; however, the lack of large earthquakes in the shield region makes compilation of a complete P wave dataset difficult. By using the phase PP, which undergoes triplications at 30-60°, much more information becomes available. The WKBJ technique is used to calculate synthetic seismograms for PP, and these records are modeled almost as well as the P. A new velocity model, designated S25, is proposed for the Canadian shield. This model contains a thick, high-Q, high-velocity lid to 165 km and a deep low-velocity zone. These features combine to produce seismograms that are markedly different from those generated by other shield structure models. The upper mantle discontinuities in S25 are placed at 405 and 660 km, with a simple linear gradient in velocity between them. Details of the shape of the discontinuities are not well constrained. Below 405 km, this model is not very different from many proposed P wave models for both shield and tectonic regions.

Chapter 3 looks in more detail at recordings of P_nl in eastern North America. First, seismograms from four eastern North American earthquakes are analyzed, and seismic moments for the events are calculated. These earthquakes are important in that they are among the largest to have occurred in eastern North America in the last thirty years, yet in some cases were not large enough to produce many good long-period teleseismic records. A simple layer-over-a-halfspace model is used for the initial modeling, and is found to provide an excellent fit for many features of the observed waveforms. The effects on P_nl of varying lid structure are then investigated. A thick lid with a positive gradient in velocity, such as that proposed for the Canadian shield in Chapter 2, will have a pronounced effect on the waveforms, beginning at distances of 800 or 900 km. P_nl records from the same eastern North American events are recalculated for several lid structure models, to survey what kinds of variations might be seen. For several records it is possible to see likely effects of lid structure in the data. However, the dataset is too sparse to make any general observations about variations in lid structure. This type of modeling is expected to be important in the future, as the analysis is extended to more recent eastern North American events, and as broadband instruments make more high-quality regional recordings available.

I. The effects of variations in certain parameters upon the efficiency of in vivo hemodialysis with a Kiil dialyzer. II. Interfacial structure of concurrent air-water flow in a two-inch diameter horizontal tube.

Part I

Regression analyses are performed on in vivo hemodialysis data for the transfer of creatinine, urea, uric acid and inorganic phosphate to determine the effects of variations in certain parameters on the efficiency of dialysis with a Kiil dialyzer. In calculating the mass transfer rates across the membrane, the effects of cell-plasma mass transfer kinetics are considered. The concept of the effective permeability coefficient for the red cell membrane is introduced to account for these effects. A discussion of the consequences of neglecting cell-plasma kinetics, as has been done to date in the literature, is presented.

A physical model for the Kiil dialyzer is presented in order to calculate the available membrane area for mass transfer, the linear blood and dialysate velocities, and other variables. The equations used to determine the independent variables of the regression analyses are presented. The potential dependent variables in the analyses are discussed.

Regression analyses were carried out considering overall mass-transfer coefficients, dialysances, relative dialysances, and relative permeabilities for each substance as the dependent variables. The independent variables were linear blood velocity, linear dialysate velocity, the pressure difference across the membrane, the elapsed time of dialysis, the blood hematocrit, and the arterial plasma concentrations of each substance transferred. The resulting correlations are tabulated, presented graphically, and discussed. The implications of these correlations are discussed from the viewpoint of a research investigator and from the viewpoint of patient treatment.

Recommendations for further experimental work are presented.

Part II

The interfacial structure of concurrent air-water flow in a two-inch diameter horizontal tube in the wavy flow regime has been measured using resistance wave gages. The median water depth, r.m.s. wave height, wave frequency, extrema frequency, and wave velocity have been measured as functions of air and water flow rates. Reynolds numbers, Froude numbers, Weber numbers, and bulk velocities for each phase may be calculated from these measurements. No theory for wave formation and propagation available in the literature was sufficient to describe these results.

The water surface level distribution generally is not adequately represented as a stationary Gaussian process. Five types of deviation from the Gaussian process function were noted in this work. The presence of the tube walls and the relatively large interfacial shear stresses precludes the use of simple statistical analyses to describe the interfacial structure. A detailed study of the behavior of individual fluid elements near the interface may be necessary to describe adequately wavy two-phase flow in systems similar to the one used in this work.

Did galaxies reionize the universe?

The epoch of reionization remains one of the last uncharted eras of cosmic history, yet this time is of crucial importance, encompassing the formation of both the first galaxies and the first metals in the universe. In this thesis, I present four related projects that both characterize the abundance and properties of these first galaxies and uses follow-up observations of these galaxies to achieve one of the first observations of the neutral fraction of the intergalactic medium during the heart of the reionization era.

First, we present the results of a spectroscopic survey using the Keck telescopes targeting 6.3 < z < 8.8 star-forming galaxies. We secured observations of 19 candidates, initially selected by applying the Lyman break technique to infrared imaging data from the Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) onboard the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). This survey builds upon earlier work from Stark et al. (2010, 2011), which showed that star-forming galaxies at 3 < z < 6, when the universe was highly ionized, displayed a significant increase in strong Lyman alpha emission with redshift. Our work uses the LRIS and NIRSPEC instruments to search for Lyman alpha emission in candidates at a greater redshift in the observed near-infrared, in order to discern if this evolution continues, or is quenched by an increase in the neutral fraction of the intergalactic medium. Our spectroscopic observations typically reach a 5-sigma limiting sensitivity of < 50 AA. Despite expecting to detect Lyman alpha at 5-sigma in 7-8 galaxies based on our Monte Carlo simulations, we only achieve secure detections in two of 19 sources. Combining these results with a similar sample of 7 galaxies from Fontana et al. (2010), we determine that these few detections would only occur in < 1% of simulations if the intrinsic distribution was the same as that at z ~ 6. We consider other explanations for this decline, but find the most convincing explanation to be an increase in the neutral fraction of the intergalactic medium. Using theoretical models, we infer a neutral fraction of X_HI ~ 0.44 at z = 7.

Second, we characterize the abundance of star-forming galaxies at z > 6.5 again using WFC3 onboard the HST. This project conducted a detailed search for candidates both in the Hubble Ultra Deep Field as well as a number of additional wider Hubble Space Telescope surveys to construct luminosity functions at both z ~ 7 and 8, reaching 0.65 and 0.25 mag fainter than any previous surveys, respectively. With this increased depth, we achieve some of the most robust constraints on the Schechter function faint end slopes at these redshifts, finding very steep values of alpha_{z~7} = -1.87 +/- 0.18 and alpha_{z~8} = -1.94 +/- 0.23. We discuss these results in the context of cosmic reionization, and show that given reasonable assumptions about the ionizing spectra and escape fraction of ionizing photons, only half the photons needed to maintain reionization are provided by currently observable galaxies at z ~ 7-8. We show that an extension of the luminosity function down to M_{UV} = -13.0, coupled with a low level of star-formation out to higher redshift, can fit all available constraints on the ionization history of the universe.

Third, we investigate the strength of nebular emission in 3 < z < 5 star-forming galaxies. We begin by using the Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) onboard the Spitzer Space Telescope to investigate the strength of H alpha emission in a sample of 3.8 < z < 5.0 spectroscopically confirmed galaxies. We then conduct near-infrared observations of star-forming galaxies at 3 < z < 3.8 to investigate the strength of the [OIII] 4959/5007 and H beta emission lines from the ground using MOSFIRE. In both cases, we uncover near-ubiquitous strong nebular emission, and find excellent agreement between the fluxes derived using the separate methods. For a subset of 9 objects in our MOSFIRE sample that have secure Spitzer IRAC detections, we compare the emission line flux derived from the excess in the K_s band photometry to that derived from direct spectroscopy and find 7 to agree within a factor of 1.6, with only one catastrophic outlier. Finally, for a different subset for which we also have DEIMOS rest-UV spectroscopy, we compare the relative velocities of Lyman alpha and the rest-optical nebular lines which should trace the cites of star-formation. We find a median velocity offset of only v_{Ly alpha} = 149 km/s, significantly less than the 400 km/s observed for star-forming galaxies with weaker Lyman alpha emission at z = 2-3 (Steidel et al. 2010), and show that this decrease can be explained by a decrease in the neutral hydrogen column density covering the galaxy. We discuss how this will imply a lower neutral fraction for a given observed extinction of Lyman alpha when its visibility is used to probe the ionization state of the intergalactic medium.

Finally, we utilize the recent CANDELS wide-field, infra-red photometry over the GOODS-N and S fields to re-analyze the use of Lyman alpha emission to evaluate the neutrality of the intergalactic medium. With this new data, we derive accurate ultraviolet spectral slopes for a sample of 468 3 < z < 6 star-forming galaxies, already observed in the rest-UV with the Keck spectroscopic survey (Stark et al. 2010). We use a Bayesian fitting method which accurately accounts for contamination and obscuration by skylines to derive a relationship between the UV-slope of a galaxy and its intrinsic Lyman alpha equivalent width probability distribution. We then apply this data to spectroscopic surveys during the reionization era, including our own, to accurately interpret the drop in observed Lyman alpha emission. From our most recent such MOSFIRE survey, we also present evidence for the most distant galaxy confirmed through emission line spectroscopy at z = 7.62, as well as a first detection of the CIII]1907/1909 doublet at z > 7.

We conclude the thesis by exploring future prospects and summarizing the results of Robertson et al. (2013). This work synthesizes many of the measurements in this thesis, along with external constraints, to create a model of reionization that fits nearly all available constraints.

The relative abundances of Sn, Te, Xe, Ba, and Ce in the cosmic radiation

Elements with even atomic number (Z) in the interval 50 ≤ Z ≤ 58 have been resolved in the cosmic radiation using the Heavy Nuclei Experiment on the HEAO-3 satellite. Their relative abundances have been compared with the results expected from pure r-process material, pure s-process material, and solar system material, both with and without a modification due to possible first ionization potential effects. Such effects may be the result of the preferential acceleration, and hence enhancement in the cosmic rays, or those elements having low first ionization potentials. We find that our measurements are inconsistent with pure r-process material at the greater than 98% confidence level whether or not the first ionization potential adjustments are made.

In addition, we have compared our results with mixtures having varying ratios of pure r-process material to pure s-process material. We find that, if no first ionization potential effects are included,

(r/s)CRS/(r/s)SS = 0.20^+0.18_-0.14

where CRS refers to the cosmic ray source and SS refers to the solar system, consistent with having an almost pure s-process source. If the first ionization potential adjustments are applied

(r/s)CRS/(r/s)SS = 1.5^+1.1_-0.7

consistent with a solar system mixture.

Controlling the group velocity in a five-level K-type atomic system

The properties of a five-level K-type system are investigated. With the controlling fields, the properties of the dispersion and absorption of the system are changed greatly. The system can produce anomalous dispersion regions with absorption and normal dispersion regions with absorption or transparency. Furthermore, the group velocity can be varied from subluminal to superluminal by varying the intensity of the controlling field and the probe detunings in principle. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ultra-slow atomic beam generation by velocity selective resonance

We describe a method to generate an ultra-slow atomic beam by velocity selective resonance (VSR). A VSR experiment on a metastable helium beam in a magnetic field is presented and the results show that the transverse velocity of the defected beam can be cooled and precisely controlled to less than the recoil velocity, depending on the magnitude of the magnetic field. We extend this idea to a cold atomic cloud to produce an ultra-slow Rb-87 beam that can be used as a source of an atomic fountain clock or a space clock.

I. The Superstition Hills, California, earthquakes of 24 November 1987. II. Three-dimensional velocity structure of southern California.

Part 1 of this thesis is about the 24 November, 1987, Superstition Hills earthquakes. The Superstition Hills earthquakes occurred in the western Imperial Valley in southern California. The earthquakes took place on a conjugate fault system consisting of the northwest-striking right-lateral Superstition Hills fault and a previously unknown Elmore Ranch fault, a northeast-striking left-lateral structure defined by surface rupture and a lineation of hypocenters. The earthquake sequence consisted of foreshocks, the M_s 6.2 first main shock, and aftershocks on the Elmore Ranch fault followed by the M_s 6.6 second main shock and aftershocks on the Superstition Hills fault. There was dramatic surface rupture along the Superstition Hills fault in three segments: the northern segment, the southern segment, and the Wienert fault.

In Chapter 2, M_L≥4.0 earthquakes from 1945 to 1971 that have Caltech catalog locations near the 1987 sequence are relocated. It is found that none of the relocated earthquakes occur on the southern segment of the Superstition Hills fault and many occur at the intersection of the Superstition Hills and Elmore Ranch faults. Also, some other northeast-striking faults may have been active during that time.

Chapter 3 discusses the Superstition Hills earthquake sequence using data from the Caltech-U.S.G.S. southern California seismic array. The earthquakes are relocated and their distribution correlated to the type and arrangement of the basement rocks. The larger earthquakes occur only where continental crystalline basement rocks are present. The northern segment of the Superstition Hills fault has more aftershocks than the southern segment.

An inversion of long period teleseismic data of the second mainshock of the 1987 sequence, along the Superstition Hills fault, is done in Chapter 4. Most of the long period seismic energy seen teleseismically is radiated from the southern segment of the Superstition Hills fault. The fault dip is near vertical along the northern segment of the fault and steeply southwest dipping along the southern segment of the fault.

Chapter 5 is a field study of slip and afterslip measurements made along the Superstition Hills fault following the second mainshock. Slip and afterslip measurements were started only two hours after the earthquake. In some locations, afterslip more than doubled the coseismic slip. The northern and southern segments of the Superstition Hills fault differ in the proportion of coseismic and postseismic slip to the total slip.

The northern segment of the Superstition Hills fault had more aftershocks, more historic earthquakes, released less teleseismic energy, and had a smaller proportion of afterslip to total slip than the southern segment. The boundary between the two segments lies at a step in the basement that separates a deeper metasedimentary basement to the south from a shallower crystalline basement to the north.

Part 2 of the thesis deals with the three-dimensional velocity structure of southern California. In Chapter 7, an a priori three-dimensional crustal velocity model is constructed by partitioning southern California into geologic provinces, with each province having a consistent one-dimensional velocity structure. The one-dimensional velocity structures of each region were then assembled into a three-dimensional model. The three-dimension model was calibrated by forward modeling of explosion travel times.

In Chapter 8, the three-dimensional velocity model is used to locate earthquakes. For about 1000 earthquakes relocated in the Los Angeles basin, the three-dimensional model has a variance of the the travel time residuals 47 per cent less than the catalog locations found using a standard one-dimensional velocity model. Other than the 1987 Whittier earthquake sequence, little correspondence is seen between these earthquake locations and elements of a recent structural cross section of the Los Angeles basin. The Whittier sequence involved rupture of a north dipping thrust fault bounded on at least one side by a strike-slip fault. The 1988 Pasadena earthquake was deep left-lateral event on the Raymond fault. The 1989 Montebello earthquake was a thrust event on a structure similar to that on which the Whittier earthquake occurred. The 1989 Malibu earthquake was a thrust or oblique slip event adjacent to the 1979 Malibu earthquake.

At least two of the largest recent thrust earthquakes (San Fernando and Whittier) in the Los Angeles basin have had the extent of their thrust plane ruptures limited by strike-slip faults. This suggests that the buried thrust faults underlying the Los Angeles basin are segmented by strike-slip faults.

Earthquake and explosion travel times are inverted for the three-dimensional velocity structure of southern California in Chapter 9. The inversion reduced the variance of the travel time residuals by 47 per cent compared to the starting model, a reparameterized version of the forward model of Chapter 7. The Los Angeles basin is well resolved, with seismically slow sediments atop a crust of granitic velocities. Moho depth is between 26 and 32 km.

Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Moment Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

There is a sparse number of credible source models available from large-magnitude past earthquakes. A stochastic source model generation algorithm thus becomes necessary for robust risk quantification using scenario earthquakes. We present an algorithm that combines the physics of fault ruptures as imaged in laboratory earthquakes with stress estimates on the fault constrained by field observations to generate stochastic source models for large-magnitude (Mw 6.0-8.0) strike-slip earthquakes. The algorithm is validated through a statistical comparison of synthetic ground motion histories from a stochastically generated source model for a magnitude 7.90 earthquake and a kinematic finite-source inversion of an equivalent magnitude past earthquake on a geometrically similar fault. The synthetic dataset comprises of three-component ground motion waveforms, computed at 636 sites in southern California, for ten hypothetical rupture scenarios (five hypocenters, each with two rupture directions) on the southern San Andreas fault. A similar validation exercise is conducted for a magnitude 6.0 earthquake, the lower magnitude limit for the algorithm. Additionally, ground motions from the Mw7.9 earthquake simulations are compared against predictions by the Campbell-Bozorgnia NGA relation as well as the ShakeOut scenario earthquake. The algorithm is then applied to generate fifty source models for a hypothetical magnitude 7.9 earthquake originating at Parkfield, with rupture propagating from north to south (towards Wrightwood), similar to the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. Using the spectral element method, three-component ground motion waveforms are computed in the Los Angeles basin for each scenario earthquake and the sensitivity of ground shaking intensity to seismic source parameters (such as the percentage of asperity area relative to the fault area, rupture speed, and risetime) is studied.

Under plausible San Andreas fault earthquakes in the next 30 years, modeled using the stochastic source algorithm, the performance of two 18-story steel moment frame buildings (UBC 1982 and 1997 designs) in southern California is quantified. The approach integrates rupture-to-rafters simulations into the PEER performance based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. Using stochastic sources and computational seismic wave propagation, three-component ground motion histories at 636 sites in southern California are generated for sixty scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. The ruptures, with moment magnitudes in the range of 6.0-8.0, are assumed to occur at five locations on the southern section of the fault. Two unilateral rupture propagation directions are considered. The 30-year probabilities of all plausible ruptures in this magnitude range and in that section of the fault, as forecast by the United States Geological Survey, are distributed among these 60 earthquakes based on proximity and moment release. The response of the two 18-story buildings hypothetically located at each of the 636 sites under 3-component shaking from all 60 events is computed using 3-D nonlinear time-history analysis. Using these results, the probability of the structural response exceeding Immediate Occupancy (IO), Life-Safety (LS), and Collapse Prevention (CP) performance levels under San Andreas fault earthquakes over the next thirty years is evaluated.

Furthermore, the conditional and marginal probability distributions of peak ground velocity (PGV) and displacement (PGD) in Los Angeles and surrounding basins due to earthquakes occurring primarily on the mid-section of southern San Andreas fault are determined using Bayesian model class identification. Simulated ground motions at sites within 55-75km from the source from a suite of 60 earthquakes (Mw 6.0 − 8.0) primarily rupturing mid-section of San Andreas fault are considered for PGV and PGD data.