VAR models and methods for monetary and health economics

Negli ultimi anni i modelli VAR sono diventati il principale strumento econometrico per verificare se può esistere una relazione tra le variabili e per valutare gli effetti delle politiche economiche. Questa tesi studia tre diversi approcci di identificazione a partire dai modelli VAR in forma ridotta (tra cui periodo di campionamento, set di variabili endogene, termini deterministici). Usiamo nel caso di modelli VAR il test di Causalità di Granger per verificare la capacità di una variabile di prevedere un altra, nel caso di cointegrazione usiamo modelli VECM per stimare congiuntamente i coefficienti di lungo periodo ed i coefficienti di breve periodo e nel caso di piccoli set di dati e problemi di overfitting usiamo modelli VAR bayesiani con funzioni di risposta di impulso e decomposizione della varianza, per analizzare l'effetto degli shock sulle variabili macroeconomiche. A tale scopo, gli studi empirici sono effettuati utilizzando serie storiche di dati specifici e formulando diverse ipotesi. Sono stati utilizzati tre modelli VAR: in primis per studiare le decisioni di politica monetaria e discriminare tra le varie teorie post-keynesiane sulla politica monetaria ed in particolare sulla cosiddetta "regola di solvibilità" (Brancaccio e Fontana 2013, 2015) e regola del GDP nominale in Area Euro (paper 1); secondo per estendere l'evidenza dell'ipotesi di endogeneità della moneta valutando gli effetti della cartolarizzazione delle banche sul meccanismo di trasmissione della politica monetaria negli Stati Uniti (paper 2); terzo per valutare gli effetti dell'invecchiamento sulla spesa sanitaria in Italia in termini di implicazioni di politiche economiche (paper 3). La tesi è introdotta dal capitolo 1 in cui si delinea il contesto, la motivazione e lo scopo di questa ricerca, mentre la struttura e la sintesi, così come i principali risultati, sono descritti nei rimanenti capitoli. Nel capitolo 2 sono esaminati, utilizzando un modello VAR in differenze prime con dati trimestrali della zona Euro, se le decisioni in materia di politica monetaria possono essere interpretate in termini di una "regola di politica monetaria", con specifico riferimento alla cosiddetta "nominal GDP targeting rule" (McCallum 1988 Hall e Mankiw 1994; Woodford 2012). I risultati evidenziano una relazione causale che va dallo scostamento tra i tassi di crescita del PIL nominale e PIL obiettivo alle variazioni dei tassi di interesse di mercato a tre mesi. La stessa analisi non sembra confermare l'esistenza di una relazione causale significativa inversa dalla variazione del tasso di interesse di mercato allo scostamento tra i tassi di crescita del PIL nominale e PIL obiettivo. Risultati simili sono stati ottenuti sostituendo il tasso di interesse di mercato con il tasso di interesse di rifinanziamento della BCE. Questa conferma di una sola delle due direzioni di causalità non supporta un'interpretazione della politica monetaria basata sulla nominal GDP targeting rule e dà adito a dubbi in termini più generali per l'applicabilità della regola di Taylor e tutte le regole convenzionali della politica monetaria per il caso in questione. I risultati appaiono invece essere più in linea con altri approcci possibili, come quelli basati su alcune analisi post-keynesiane e marxiste della teoria monetaria e più in particolare la cosiddetta "regola di solvibilità" (Brancaccio e Fontana 2013, 2015). Queste linee di ricerca contestano la tesi semplicistica che l'ambito della politica monetaria consiste nella stabilizzazione dell'inflazione, del PIL reale o del reddito nominale intorno ad un livello "naturale equilibrio". Piuttosto, essi suggeriscono che le banche centrali in realtà seguono uno scopo più complesso, che è il regolamento del sistema finanziario, con particolare riferimento ai rapporti tra creditori e debitori e la relativa solvibilità delle unità economiche. Il capitolo 3 analizza l’offerta di prestiti considerando l’endogeneità della moneta derivante dall'attività di cartolarizzazione delle banche nel corso del periodo 1999-2012. Anche se gran parte della letteratura indaga sulla endogenità dell'offerta di moneta, questo approccio è stato adottato raramente per indagare la endogeneità della moneta nel breve e lungo termine con uno studio degli Stati Uniti durante le due crisi principali: scoppio della bolla dot-com (1998-1999) e la crisi dei mutui sub-prime (2008-2009). In particolare, si considerano gli effetti dell'innovazione finanziaria sul canale dei prestiti utilizzando la serie dei prestiti aggiustata per la cartolarizzazione al fine di verificare se il sistema bancario americano è stimolato a ricercare fonti più economiche di finanziamento come la cartolarizzazione, in caso di politica monetaria restrittiva (Altunbas et al., 2009). L'analisi si basa sull'aggregato monetario M1 ed M2. Utilizzando modelli VECM, esaminiamo una relazione di lungo periodo tra le variabili in livello e valutiamo gli effetti dell’offerta di moneta analizzando quanto la politica monetaria influisce sulle deviazioni di breve periodo dalla relazione di lungo periodo. I risultati mostrano che la cartolarizzazione influenza l'impatto dei prestiti su M1 ed M2. Ciò implica che l'offerta di moneta è endogena confermando l'approccio strutturalista ed evidenziando che gli agenti economici sono motivati ad aumentare la cartolarizzazione per una preventiva copertura contro shock di politica monetaria. Il capitolo 4 indaga il rapporto tra spesa pro capite sanitaria, PIL pro capite, indice di vecchiaia ed aspettativa di vita in Italia nel periodo 1990-2013, utilizzando i modelli VAR bayesiani e dati annuali estratti dalla banca dati OCSE ed Eurostat. Le funzioni di risposta d'impulso e la scomposizione della varianza evidenziano una relazione positiva: dal PIL pro capite alla spesa pro capite sanitaria, dalla speranza di vita alla spesa sanitaria, e dall'indice di invecchiamento alla spesa pro capite sanitaria. L'impatto dell'invecchiamento sulla spesa sanitaria è più significativo rispetto alle altre variabili. Nel complesso, i nostri risultati suggeriscono che le disabilità strettamente connesse all'invecchiamento possono essere il driver principale della spesa sanitaria nel breve-medio periodo. Una buona gestione della sanità contribuisce a migliorare il benessere del paziente, senza aumentare la spesa sanitaria totale. Tuttavia, le politiche che migliorano lo stato di salute delle persone anziane potrebbe essere necessarie per una più bassa domanda pro capite dei servizi sanitari e sociali.

School Principals' Attitudes Towards Performance Based Compensation

The main objective of this study is to determine the attitudes of school principals regarding a performance based compensation system. This study identifies the attitudes towards specific factors that should be considered in the implementation of a system of performance based compensation. The data have been analyzed to determine if a principal's demographic characteristics affect his/her level of agreement with performance based compensation and the factors for implementation. In addition, this study unveils areas of concern that principals have conveyed regarding the implementation of a performance based compensation system. Data was obtained from 444 public school principals representing 444 schools and 178 districts in the state of Colorado. Measures used in the treatment of the data include descriptive statistics and one-way ANOVA. The major findings of this study were: 1. 82.4% of respondents believe that teachers, principals and administrators should be included in performance based compensation (PBC). 2. The top two indicators that respondents believed should be included in a PBC system are student achievement (88.5%) and teacher evaluations (77.6%) 3. The 3 largest obstacles to PBC that respondents identified are: a. The capacity to link student achievement to teacher evaluations (82.9%) b. Teacher Union Resistance (67.1%) c. Cost (55.9%) 4. Principals in urban, rural and suburban geographic groups disagree about the effects of performance based compensation. 5. The top 5 overall concerns regarding Performance Based Compensation were: a. Concerns regarding effectively using assessment to measure performance of all teachers/equity between teachers b. Concerns regarding evaluation (time for principals to learn, consistency from school to school, time for principals to evaluate, quality of evaluation tool). c. Not in favor of PBC due to philosophical views or concerns about lack of research. d. Concerns regarding the equity between classrooms and districts across the state due to poverty levels and unequal resources. e. Concerns that performance based compensation will result in a decline in teacher collaboration and an increase in competition between teachers. Based upon these findings, the researcher concluded that there is not a strong general acceptance of performance based compensation systems. However, urban principals in Colorado tend to view PBC somewhat more favorably than do principals in suburban or rural areas. Most importantly, systems to link student achievement to teacher evaluation must be collaboratively created to ensure PBC systems are equitable, consistent and fair.

Activity-Regulated microRNAs: Modulators of Synaptic Growth at the Drosophila Neuromuscular Junction

It is well established that long-term changes in synaptic structure and function are mediated by rapid activity-dependent gene transcription and new protein synthesis. A growing body of evidence supports the involvement of the microRNA (miRNA) pathway in these processes. We have used the Drosophila neuromuscular junction (NMJ) as a model synapse to characterize activity-regulated miRNAs and their important mRNA targets. Here, we have identified five neuronal miRNAs (miRs-1, -8, -289, -314, and -958) that are significantly downregulated in response to neuronal activity. Furthermore we have discovered that neuronal misexpression of three of these miRNAs (miR-8, -289, and -958) is capable of suppressing new synaptic growth in response to activity suggesting that these miRNAs control the translation of biologically relevant target mRNAs. Putative targets of the activity-regulated miRNAs-8 and -289 are significantly enriched in clusters mapping to functional processes including axon development, pathfinding, and axon growth. We demonstrate that activity-regulated miR-8 regulates the 3'UTR of wingless, a presynaptic regulatory protein involved in the process of activity-dependent axon terminal growth. Additionally, we show that the 3'UTR of the protein tyrosine phosophatase leukocyte antengen related (lar), a protein required for axon guidance and synaptic growth, is regulated by activity-regulated miRNAs-8, -289, and -958 in vitro. Both wg and lar were identified as relevant putative targets for co-regulation based through our functional cluster analysis. One putative target of miR-289 is the Ca2+/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II (CamKII). While CamKII is not predicted as a target for co-regulation by multiple activity-regulated miRNAs we identified it as an especially pertinent target for analysis in our system for two reasons. First, CamKII has an extremely well characterized role in postsynaptic plasticity, but its presynaptic role is less well characterized and bears further analysis. Second, local translation of CamKII mRNA is regulated in part by the miRNA pathway in an activity-dependent manner in dendrites. We find that the CamKII 3'UTR is regulated by miR-289 in-vitro and this regulation is alleviated by mutating the `seed region' of the miR-289 binding site within the CamKII 3'UTR. Furthermore, we demonstrate a requirement for local translation of CamKII in motoneurons in the process of activity-regulated axon terminal growth.

An approach for characterising the weathering behaviour of Flysch slopes applied to the carbonatic Flysch of Alicante (Spain)

Various studies indicate that most of the slope instabilities affecting Flysch heterogeneous rock masses are related to differential weathering of the lithologies that make up the slope. Therefore, the weathering characteristics of the intact rock are of great importance for the study of these types of slopes and their associated instability processes. The main aim of this study is to characterise the weathering properties of the different lithologies outcropping in the carbonatic Flysch of Alicante (Spain), in order to understand the effects of environmental weathering on them, following slope excavation. To this end, 151 strata samples obtained from 11 different slopes, 5–40 years old, were studied. The lithologies were identified and their mechanical characteristics obtained using field and laboratory tests. Additionally, the slaking properties of intact rocks were determined, and a classification system proposed based on the first and fifth slake cycles (Id1 and Id5 respectively) and an Index of Weathering (IW5), defined in the study. Information obtained from the laboratory and the field was used to characterise the weathering behaviour of the rocks. Furthermore, the slaking properties determined from laboratory tests were related to the in-situ weathering properties of rocks (i.e., the weathering profile, patterns and length, and weathering rate). The proposed relationship between laboratory test results, field data, and in-situ observations provides a useful tool for predicting the response of slopes to weathering after excavation during the preliminary stages of design.

Intelligent Decision-Making System Frameworks for a Digital Plan of Work: A Theoretical Investigation for the Construction Industry

The construction industry is characterised by fragmentation and suffers from lack of collaboration, often adopting adversarial working practices to achieve deliverables. For the UK Government and construction industry, BIM is a game changer aiming to rectify this fragmentation and promote collaboration. However it has become clear that there is an essential need to have better controls and definitions of both data deliverables and data classification. Traditional methods and techniques for collating and inputting data have shown to be time consuming and provide little to improve or add value to the overall task of improving deliverables. Hence arose the need in the industry to develop a Digital Plan of Work (DPoW) toolkit that would aid the decision making process, providing the required control over the project workflows and data deliverables, and enabling better collaboration through transparency of need and delivery. The specification for the existing Digital Plan of Work (DPoW) was to be, an industry standard method of describing geometric, requirements and data deliveries at key stages of the project cycle, with the addition of a structured and standardised information classification system. However surveys and interviews conducted within this research indicate that the current DPoW resembles a digitised version of the pre-existing plans of work and does not push towards the data enriched decision-making abilities that advancements in technology now offer. A Digital Framework is not simply the digitisation of current or historic standard methods and procedures, it is a new intelligent driven digital system that uses new tools, processes, procedures and work flows to eradicate waste and increase efficiency. In addition to reporting on conducted surveys above, this research paper will present a theoretical investigation into usage of Intelligent Decision Support Systems within a digital plan of work framework. Furthermore this paper will present findings on the suitability to utilise advancements in intelligent decision-making system frameworks and Artificial Intelligence for a UK BIM Framework. This should form the foundations of decision-making for projects implemented at BIM level 2. The gap identified in this paper is that the current digital toolkit does not incorporate the intelligent characteristics available in other industries through advancements in technology and collation of vast amounts of data that a digital plan of work framework could have access to and begin to develop, learn and adapt for decision-making through the live interaction of project stakeholders.

Phrase-based statistical machine translation: explanation of its processes and statistical models and evaluation of the English to Spanish translations produced

Statistical machine translation (SMT) is an approach to Machine Translation (MT) that uses statistical models whose parameter estimation is based on the analysis of existing human translations (contained in bilingual corpora). From a translation student’s standpoint, this dissertation aims to explain how a phrase-based SMT system works, to determine the role of the statistical models it uses in the translation process and to assess the quality of the translations provided that system is trained with in-domain goodquality corpora. To that end, a phrase-based SMT system based on Moses has been trained and subsequently used for the English to Spanish translation of two texts related in topic to the training data. Finally, the quality of this output texts produced by the system has been assessed through a quantitative evaluation carried out with three different automatic evaluation measures and a qualitative evaluation based on the Multidimensional Quality Metrics (MQM).

Buraco macular : revisão a propósito de um caso clínico

Trabalho Final do Curso de Mestrado Integrado em Medicina, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, 2014

Characterization of B cells in healthy pregnant women from late pregnancy to post-partum: a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND: B cells play a role in pregnancy due to their humoral and regulatory activities. To our knowledge, different maturational stages (from transitional to memory) of circulating B cell subsets have not yet been characterized (cell quantification and phenotype identification) in healthy pregnant women. Thus, the objective of our study was to characterize these subsets (as well as regulatory B cells) from late pregnancy to post-partum and to compare them with the circulating B cells of non-pregnant women. METHODS: In all of the enrolled women, flow cytometry was used to characterize the circulating B cell subsets according to the expression of IgD and CD38 (Bm1-Bm5 classification system). Regulatory B cells were characterized based on the expression of surface antigens (CD24, CD27, and CD38) and the production of IL-10 after lipopolysaccharide stimulation. RESULTS: Compared to the absolute counts of B cells in the non-pregnant women (n = 35), those in the pregnant women (n = 43) were significantly lower (p < 0.05) during the 3rd trimester of pregnancy and on delivery day (immediately after delivery). The percentages of these cells on delivery day and at post-partum were significantly lower than those in the non-pregnant women. In general, the absolute counts and percentages of the majority of the B cell subsets were significantly lower in the 3rd trimester of pregnancy and on delivery day than in the non-pregnant women. However, these counts and percentages did not differ significantly between the post-partum and the non-pregnant women. The most notable exceptions to the above were the percentages of naïve B cells (which were significantly higher in the 3rd trimester and on delivery day than in the non-pregnant women) and of CD24(hi)CD38(hi) regulatory B cells (which were significantly higher in the post-partum than in the non-pregnant women). CONCLUSION: According to our study, the peripheral B cell compartment undergoes quantitative changes during normal late pregnancy and post-partum. Such findings may allow us to better understand immunomodulation during human pregnancy and provide evidence that could aid in the development of new strategies to diagnose and treat pregnancy-associated disturbances. Our findings could also be useful for studies of the mechanisms of maternal responses to vaccination and infection.

Characterization of B cells in healthy pregnant women from late pregnancy to post-partum: a prospective observational study

Abstract BACKGROUND: B cells play a role in pregnancy due to their humoral and regulatory activities. To our knowledge, different maturational stages (from transitional to memory) of circulating B cell subsets have not yet been characterized (cell quantification and phenotype identification) in healthy pregnant women. Thus, the objective of our study was to characterize these subsets (as well as regulatory B cells) from late pregnancy to post-partum and to compare them with the circulating B cells of non-pregnant women. METHODS: In all of the enrolled women, flow cytometry was used to characterize the circulating B cell subsets according to the expression of IgD and CD38 (Bm1-Bm5 classification system). Regulatory B cells were characterized based on the expression of surface antigens (CD24, CD27, and CD38) and the production of IL-10 after lipopolysaccharide stimulation. RESULTS: Compared to the absolute counts of B cells in the non-pregnant women (n = 35), those in the pregnant women (n = 43) were significantly lower (p < 0.05) during the 3rd trimester of pregnancy and on delivery day (immediately after delivery). The percentages of these cells on delivery day and at post-partum were significantly lower than those in the non-pregnant women. In general, the absolute counts and percentages of the majority of the B cell subsets were significantly lower in the 3rd trimester of pregnancy and on delivery day than in the non-pregnant women. However, these counts and percentages did not differ significantly between the post-partum and the non-pregnant women. The most notable exceptions to the above were the percentages of naïve B cells (which were significantly higher in the 3rd trimester and on delivery day than in the non-pregnant women) and of CD24(hi)CD38(hi) regulatory B cells (which were significantly higher in the post-partum than in the non-pregnant women). CONCLUSION: According to our study, the peripheral B cell compartment undergoes quantitative changes during normal late pregnancy and post-partum. Such findings may allow us to better understand immunomodulation during human pregnancy and provide evidence that could aid in the development of new strategies to diagnose and treat pregnancy-associated disturbances. Our findings could also be useful for studies of the mechanisms of maternal responses to vaccination and infection.

System des real-katalogs der Universitäts-biblothek Heidelberg,

Mode of access: Internet.

Plan to restructure the state of Illinois service delivery system for older adults /

Such restructuring shall encompass the provision of housing, health, financial and supportive older adult services. It is envisioned that this restructuring will promote the development, availability, and accessibility of a comprehensive, affordable, and sustainable service delivery system that places a high priority on home-based and community-based services. Such restructuring will encompass all aspects of the delivery system regardless of the setting in which the service is provided." (PA 093-1081 Section 5).

Graph-based Semi-Supervised Learning in Acoustic Modeling for Automatic Speech Recognition

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Columnar cell lesions of the breast: The missing link in breast cancer progression? A morphological and molecular analysis

Columnar cell lesions (CCLs) of the breast are a spectrum of lesions that have posed difficulties to pathologists for many years, prompting discussion concerning their biologic and clinical significance. We present a study of CCL in context with hyperplasia of usual type (HUT) and the more advanced lesions ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and invasive ductal carcinoma. A total of 81 lesions from 18 patients were subjected to a comprehensive morphologic review based upon a modified version of Schnitt's classification system for CCL, immunophenotypic analysis (estrogen receptor [ER], progesterone receptor [PgR], Her2/neu, cytokeratin 5/6 [CK5/6], cytokeratin 14 [CK14], E-cadherin, p53) and for the first time, a whole genome molecular analysis by comparative genomic hybridization. Multiple CCLs from 3 patients were studied in particular detail, with topographic information and/or showing a morphologic spectrum of CCL within individual terminal duct lobular units. CCLs were ER an PgR positive, CK5/6 and CK14 negative, exhibit low numbers of genetic alterations and recurrent 16q loss, features that are similar to those of low grade in situ and invasive carcinoma. The molecular genetic profiles closely reflect the degree of proliferation and atypia in CCL, indicating some of these lesions represent both a morphologic and molecular continuum. In addition, overlapping chromosomal alterations between CCL and more advanced lesions within individual terminal duct lobular units suggest a commonality in molecular evolution. These data further support the hypothesis that CCLs are a nonobligate, intermediary step in the development of some forms of low grade in situ and invasive carcinoma. Copyright: © 2005 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.

MULTIPRED: A computational system for prediction of promiscuous HLA binding peptides

MULTIPRED is a web-based computational system for the prediction of peptide binding to multiple molecules ( proteins) belonging to human leukocyte antigens (HLA) class I A2, A3 and class II DR supertypes. It uses hidden Markov models and artificial neural network methods as predictive engines. A novel data representation method enables MULTIPRED to predict peptides that promiscuously bind multiple HLA alleles within one HLA supertype. Extensive testing was performed for validation of the prediction models. Testing results show that MULTIPRED is both sensitive and specific and it has good predictive ability ( area under the receiver operating characteristic curve A(ROC) > 0.80). MULTIPRED can be used for the mapping of promiscuous T-cell epitopes as well as the regions of high concentration of these targets termed T-cell epitope hotspots. MULTIPRED is available at http:// antigen.i2r.a-star.edu.sg/ multipred/.

Automatic building detection using the Dempster-Shafer algorithm

An approach and strategy for automatic detection of buildings from aerial images using combined image analysis and interpretation techniques is described in this paper. It is undertaken in several steps. A dense DSM is obtained by stereo image matching and then the results of multi-band classification, the DSM, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are used to reveal preliminary building interest areas. From these areas, a shape modeling algorithm has been used to precisely delineate their boundaries. The Dempster-Shafer data fusion technique is then applied to detect buildings from the combination of three data sources by a statistically-based classification. A number of test areas, which include buildings of different sizes, shape, and roof color have been investigated. The tests are encouraging and demonstrate that all processes in this system are important for effective building detection.