819 resultados para Regional population forecasting, service provision, box-Jenkins model


Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Arguably, living and working in rural communities can pose significant challenges for human service practitioners - challenges that are different from those encountered by their urban counterparts. Human services employers, like many other employers in rural areas, have difficulty in recruiting and retaining staff. There is now considerable evidence to support the notion that rural and remote practice constitutes a different and distinct form of practice and has undergone significant changes over the past decade. Living and working in rural communities means that practitioners are not only influenced by the rural and remote context of practice, they are also part of that context. Given the difficulty encountered in attracting and retaining rural practitioners and the changes in this area, an important question which emerges is: How can practitioners best be prepared for this work through largely urban based social work and human service education? The multifaceted and multilayered complexities in rural practice requires creativity, improvisation and a capacity for 'integrative thinking' (Martinez-Brawley 2002). This paper discusses six elements of newer forms of rural and remote practice and how they might be most effectively addressed through social work and human service curricula. An education model which integrates these elements and other principles for rural practice is proposed.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Purpose. To use a taxonomy of goal content, developed in community-based brain injury rehabilitation to examine and compare the content of goals set within two different service settings; and to further examine the potential of the taxonomy to be a reliable and comprehensive framework for classifying goals. Method. Qualitative analysis and categorization of 1492 goal statements extracted from a community-based brain injury rehabilitation service over two time periods (1996-97, 1998-99), and cross-organizational comparison of ratings of goal classifications using a random sample of 100 goal statements drawn from this data set and the original 1765 goal statements used in developing the taxonomy. Results. Application of the taxonomy beyond the original service setting in which it was developed indicated a strong inter-rater reliability, with a high test-retest agreement reported over time. For both services, a small number of categories accounted for a substantial proportion of goals set within the two time periods, while considerable change was evident in goals between the two periods for one service. Further, both placed emphasis on individually focused goals rather than relationship or family-related goals. Conclusion. The taxonomy provides a reliable means for classifying goals and is a useful tool for exploration of the multiple influences on goal setting. Further application of the taxonomy to examine the relative influence on goal setting of client factors versus a range of organizational factors would be beneficial.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Background: Lean bodyweight (LBW) has been recommended for scaling drug doses. However, the current methods for predicting LBW are inconsistent at extremes of size and could be misleading with respect to interpreting weight-based regimens. Objective: The objective of the present study was to develop a semi-mechanistic model to predict fat-free mass (FFM) from subject characteristics in a population that includes extremes of size. FFM is considered to closely approximate LBW. There are several reference methods for assessing FFM, whereas there are no reference standards for LBW. Patients and methods: A total of 373 patients (168 male, 205 female) were included in the study. These data arose from two populations. Population A (index dataset) contained anthropometric characteristics, FFM estimated by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA - a reference method) and bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) data. Population B (test dataset) contained the same anthropometric measures and FFM data as population A, but excluded BIA data. The patients in population A had a wide range of age (18-82 years), bodyweight (40.7-216.5kg) and BMI values (17.1-69.9 kg/m(2)). Patients in population B had BMI values of 18.7-38.4 kg/m(2). A two-stage semi-mechanistic model to predict FFM was developed from the demographics from population A. For stage 1 a model was developed to predict impedance and for stage 2 a model that incorporated predicted impedance was used to predict FFM. These two models were combined to provide an overall model to predict FFM from patient characteristics. The developed model for FFM was externally evaluated by predicting into population B. Results: The semi-mechanistic model to predict impedance incorporated sex, height and bodyweight. The developed model provides a good predictor of impedance for both males and females (r(2) = 0.78, mean error [ME] = 2.30 x 10(-3), root mean square error [RMSE] = 51.56 [approximately 10% of mean]). The final model for FFM incorporated sex, height and bodyweight. The developed model for FFM provided good predictive performance for both males and females (r(2) = 0.93, ME = -0.77, RMSE = 3.33 [approximately 6% of mean]). In addition, the model accurately predicted the FFM of subjects in population B (r(2) = 0.85, ME -0.04, RMSE = 4.39 [approximately 7% of mean]). Conclusions: A semi-mechanistic model has been developed to predict FFM (and therefore LBW) from easily accessible patient characteristics. This model has been prospectively evaluated and shown to have good predictive performance.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In cell lifespan studies the exponential nature of cell survival curves is often interpreted as showing the rate of death is independent of the age of the cells within the population. Here we present an alternative model where cells that die are replaced and the age and lifespan of the population pool is monitored until a, steady state is reached. In our model newly generated individual cells are given a determined lifespan drawn from a number of known distributions including the lognormal, which is frequently found in nature. For lognormal lifespans the analytic steady-state survival curve obtained can be well-fit by a single or double exponential, depending on the mean and standard deviation. Thus, experimental evidence for exponential lifespans of one and/or two populations cannot be taken as definitive evidence for time and age independence of cell survival. A related model for a dividing population in steady state is also developed. We propose that the common adoption of age-independent, constant rates of change in biological modelling may be responsible for significant errors, both of interpretation and of mathematical deduction. We suggest that additional mathematical and experimental methods must be used to resolve the relationship between time and behavioural changes by cells that are predominantly unsynchronized.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Despite the considerable evidence showing that dispersal between habitat patches is often asymmetric, most of the metapopulation models assume symmetric dispersal. In this paper, we develop a Monte Carlo simulation model to quantify the effect of asymmetric dispersal on metapopulation persistence. Our results suggest that metapopulation extinctions are more likely when dispersal is asymmetric. Metapopulation viability in systems with symmetric dispersal mirrors results from a mean field approximation, where the system persists if the expected per patch colonization probability exceeds the expected per patch local extinction rate. For asymmetric cases, the mean field approximation underestimates the number of patches necessary for maintaining population persistence. If we use a model assuming symmetric dispersal when dispersal is actually asymmetric, the estimation of metapopulation persistence is wrong in more than 50% of the cases. Metapopulation viability depends on patch connectivity in symmetric systems, whereas in the asymmetric case the number of patches is more important. These results have important implications for managing spatially structured populations, when asymmetric dispersal may occur. Future metapopulation models should account for asymmetric dispersal, while empirical work is needed to quantify the patterns and the consequences of asymmetric dispersal in natural metapopulations.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that, although there are some unique features associated with mental illness, such special features do not preclude economic analysis. As a mechanism for understanding how individual economic studies fit into the mental health sector, a conceptual framework of the components of mental health service provision is outlined. Emphasis is placed on, not simply institutional and market resources, but also on the services provided by relatives, self-help groups, etc. Australian data on parts of the mental health sector are employed to illustrate that some (and different) economic analyses can be undertaken in mental health. First, time-series data on public psychiatric hospitals are employed to demonstrate trends associated with deinstitutionalisation. Other data (for Queensland alone) indicate that there are state-based differences in the provision of such services. Second, attention is then directed to the analysis of time-series data on private fee-for-service psychiatric services. Various concepts and measures from industrial economics are applied to analyse the relative size of this service industry, the pricing behaviour of the profession, the service-mix of "the psychiatry firms" operating in Australia.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Broccoli is a vegetable crop of increasing importance in Australia, particularly in south-east Queensland and farmers need to maintain a regular supply of good quality broccoli to meet the expanding market. A predictive model of ontogeny, incorporating climatic data including frost risk, would enable farmers to predict harvest maturity date and select appropriate cultivar – sowing date combinations. To develop procedures for predicting ontogeny, yield and quality, field studies using three cultivars, ‘Fiesta’, ‘Greenbelt’ and ‘Marathon’, were sown on eight dates from 11 March to 22 May 1997, and grown under natural and extended (16 h) photoperiods at the University of Queensland, Gatton Campus. Cultivar, rather than the environment, mainly determined head quality attributes of head shape and branching angle. Yield and quality were not influenced by photoperiod. A better understanding of genotype and environmental interactions will help farmers optimise yield and quality, by matching cultivars with time of sowing. The estimated base and optimum temperature for broccoli development were 0°C and 20 °C, respectively, and were consistent across cultivars, but thermal time requirements for phenological intervals were cultivar specific. Differences in thermal time requirement from floral initiation to harvest maturity between cultivars were small and of little importance, but differences in thermal time requirement from emergence to floral initiation were large. Sensitivity to photoperiod and solar radiation was low in the three cultivars used. This research has produced models to assist broccoli farmers in crop scheduling and cultivar selection in south-east Queensland.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

We have investigated the role of videoconferencing in allied health service provision to high-care clients in rural residential facilities. Videoconferencing equipment was set up at a rural aged-care facility and a metropolitan allied health centre; ISDN transmission at 384 kbit/s was used to link the equipment. Twelve residents were assessed by both videoconference and face to face across five allied health disciplines (a total of 120 assessments). User satisfaction was measured using questionnaires and focus groups. Face-to-face assessment took significantly longer than videoconferencing assessment. However, the mean satisfaction ratings for face-to-face assessments were higher than for videoconferencing and the majority of the staff preferred the face-to-face format. Videoconferencing was particularly useful for consultations and the initial stages of the assessment process. A number of issues relating to the videoconferencing equipment, to the environment in which assessments were performed and to the clients themselves need to be addressed in order for this form of service delivery to be effective.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Domestic violence is everywhere and nowhere. No statutory organization or health service has work with either perpetrators or survivors of domestic violence (usually women and children) as the primary focus of their service, yet all agencies will have very significant numbers among their clients/service users. It is therefore crucial that the policy framework is developed both within and between agencies to address the need, and scope, of intervention in this area and particularly the impact on children. Currently, significant steps have been taken by some agencies in the UK to address this previously neglected issue, though the developments are patchy. This paper draws on a UK-wide research study which mapped the extent and range of service provision for families where there is domestic violence and also developed a framework of good practice indicators for ‘Mapped the extent and range of service provision for families where there is domestic violence and also developed a framework of good practice indicators’ provision in this area. This article examines one of the indicators of good practice arising from the research—that of policy development—within social service departments and within the multi-agency arena.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In this article, the authors analyze participants' accounts of why they took part in a repeat-interview study exploring newly diagnosed patients' perceptions of diabetes service provision in Lothian, Scotland. The study involved three semistructured in-depth interviews with each patient (N = 40), which spanned a year. The authors provide a thematic discursive analysis of responses to the question, Can I ask you what made you decide to part in the study and why you've stayed involved over the past year? The main themes are (a) recruitment within health contexts ("the nurse said it would help"), (b) altruism ("if it can help somebody"), (c) qualitative research being seen as inherently innocuous ("nothing to lose"), and (d) therapeutic aspects of interviewing ("getting it off my chest"). The analysis contributes both to the qualitative literature about generic research participation and to a germinal literature exploring qualitative health research participation. © 2006 Sage Publications.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The fast spread of the Internet and the increasing demands of the service are leading to radical changes in the structure and management of underlying telecommunications systems. Active networks (ANs) offer the ability to program the network on a per-router, per-user, or even per-packet basis, thus promise greater flexibility than current networks. To make this new network paradigm of active network being widely accepted, a lot of issues need to be solved. Management of the active network is one of the challenges. This thesis investigates an adaptive management solution based on genetic algorithm (GA). The solution uses a distributed GA inspired by bacterium on the active nodes within an active network, to provide adaptive management for the network, especially the service provision problems associated with future network. The thesis also reviews the concepts, theories and technologies associated with the management solution. By exploring the implementation of these active nodes in hardware, this thesis demonstrates the possibility of implementing a GA based adaptive management in the real network that being used today. The concurrent programming language, Handel-C, is used for the description of the design system and a re-configurable computer platform based on a FPGA process element is used for the hardware implementation. The experiment results demonstrate both the availability of the hardware implementation and the efficiency of the proposed management solution.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Age Related Macular Degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of registerable blindness with a high medical and societal cost burden. Much of the research examining experiences of living with AMD has been conducted independently with small sample sizes and has failed to impact on practice. Meta-synthesis of qualitative research can improve the understanding of the experience of living with AMD by drawing together findings of qualitative studies. This article presents a systematic review and meta-synthesis of qualitative studies investigating the experience of AMD (literature searched up to April 2012; published studies identified range from 1996 to 2009). The review highlights themes relating to: functional limitations, adaptation and independence; feelings about the future with vision impairment; interaction with the health service; social engagement; disclosure; and the emotional impacts of living with AMD. Attention to the experience of living with AMD can help us to better understand the needs of patients. This meta-synthesis aimed to bring together the findings of qualitative research studies and highlights important areas for consideration when caring for patients with AMD. Our findings suggest that a holistic approach to service provision and support for AMD is needed which takes into account individuals' needs and experiences when coping with and adjusting to living with AMD. This support should aim to reduce stigma, increase social engagement, and develop the psychological resources of patients with AMD.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Introduction – The commissioning of services has been a core responsibility of English Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) since 2002. Primary care organisations (PCOs) in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have also increased their commissioning activities but with, arguably, less fervour than their English counterparts. The commissioning function of English PCTs has been reinforced by the introduction of new contractual frameworks across primary care – for medical services, dentistry and pharmacy. The new pharmaceutical services contract for England and Wales introduced an “enhanced” category of services, the provision of which is dependent on the commissioning decisions of local PCTs. As the NHS, most pertinently in England, continues its transformation from a provider to a commissioner of healthcare, the ability of pharmacy to compete effectively for funding is likely to become increasingly important. Method - After piloting, in August 2006 a self-completion postal questionnaire was sent to a random sample of practising community pharmacists, stratified for country and sex, within Great Britain (n=1998), with a follow-up to non-responders 4 weeks later. Data were analysed using SPSS (v12.0). A final response rate of 51% (n=1023/1998) was achieved. Within the section of the questionnaire relating to service provision, respondents were asked “do you believe that pharmacy will be able to compete effectively with other healthcare providers for access to additional funding to develop services that address a public health need identified by your local Primary Care Organisation (PCO), e.g. PCT/LHB etc.?”. Answers were recorded on a three-point scale; pharmacy “will”, “may”, or “will not” be able to compete effectively for funding. Results - The attitudes of pharmacists showed variation depending on the type of pharmacy they worked in (supermarket, multiple (outlets (n)=200), large chain (200>n>20), small chain (20=n>5), or independent (n=5)) (?2 test with p=0.001). Over a third of survey pharmacists working in small chains and independents (37% (n=21/57) and 33% (n=113/341) respectively) believed that pharmacy would not be able to compete effectively for funding compared to 23% (n=15/65) for supermarket pharmacists, 22% (n=21/97) for pharmacists employed by large chains and just 18% (n=62/353) for pharmacists employed most regularly in multiples. Furthermore, attitudes also varied between the countries of residence of respondents (?2 test with p<0.05). 27% (n=242/893) of pharmacists resident in England and Wales believed that pharmacy would not be able to compete compared to 16% (n=18/116) of pharmacists resident in Scotland. Conclusions – It would appear that community pharmacists believe that the larger pharmacy chains and supermarkets will occupy an advantageous position in terms of attracting finance to develop services. This could have notable implications for service provision across the sector. If corporate pharmacy chains were to monopolise commissioning monies then the proportion of funding available to independents will be diminished; arguably further hastening their demise, as well as stifling the professional development of pharmacists employed within the independent sector. These findings, when combined with the variation observed between UK pharmacists operating under different contractual frameworks, may be a reflection of the divergent policy in the different administrations with developments in England, including the new pharmacy contract, reflecting a market-based approach with Scotland taking a near opposite stance with service integration and a commitment to new public health. However, it should be acknowledged that the questionnaire did not allow for detection of ambiguities in, or misunderstandings of, the survey question and this should be considered as a limitation of the research.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This paper investigates and implicates how organisations renovate their service operations and improve business productivity in the context of wireless networks and mobile technologies. Drawing from two case studies conducted in healthcare institutions situated in southwest USA, the findings suggested that wireless networks and relevant technologies evidently enhanced business productivity and fundamentally changed service provision and, in turn, shaped or reshaped organisational images in the community. The implications reinforced the notions that technology could provide foundation for an organisation’s economic growth and that organisations’ business and IT strategies need to seriously consider aligning with this technological trend. For researchers, how organisations in different industries manoeuvre their ways around these technologies might provide interesting venues for future investigation.

Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Tourette’s syndrome is a tic disorder that is often associated with behavioural symptoms. Diagnostic criteria are based on the presence of both motor and vocal tics; because of its varied presentations, the syndrome has the potential to be misdiagnosed. Prevalence is higher than commonly assumed; coprolalia is relatively rare (10-30%) and not required for diagnosis. The syndrome can cause serious distress and compromise health related quality of life. The main management strategies include psychoeducation, behavioural techniques, and drugs. Service provision is patchy even in developed countries and patients of all ages often “fall through the net” between neurology and psychiatry.