Property cash flow studies : focusing on model consistency and data accuracy

The high degree of variability and inconsistency in cash flow study usage by property professionals demands improvement in knowledge and processes. Until recently limited research was being undertaken on the use of cash flow studies in property valuations but the growing acceptance of this approach for major investment valuations has resulted in renewed interest in this topic. Studies on valuation variations identify data accuracy, model consistency and bias as major concerns. In cash flow studies there are practical problems with the input data and the consistency of the models. This study will refer to the recent literature and identify the major factors in model inconsistency and data selection. A detailed case study will be used to examine the effects of changes in structure and inputs. The key variable inputs will be identified and proposals developed to improve the selection process for these key variables. The variables will be selected with the aid of sensitivity studies and alternative ways of quantifying the key variables explained. The paper recommends, with reservations, the use of probability profiles of the variables and the incorporation of this data in simulation exercises. The use of Monte Carlo simulation is demonstrated and the factors influencing the structure of the probability distributions of the key variables are outline. This study relates to ongoing research into functional performance of commercial property within an Australian Cooperative Research Centre.

Evaluation of functional performance in commercial buildings

This report fully summarises a project designed to enhance commercial real estate performance within both operational and investment contexts through the development of a model aimed at supporting improved decision-making. The model is based on a risk adjusted discounted cash flow, providing a valuable toolkit for building managers, owners, and potential investors for evaluating individual building performance in terms of financial, social and environmental criteria over the complete life-cycle of the asset. The ‘triple bottom line’ approach to the evaluation of commercial property has much significance for the administrators of public property portfolios in particular. It also has applications more generally for the wider real estate industry given that the advent of ‘green’ construction requires new methods for evaluating both new and existing building stocks. The research is unique in that it focuses on the accuracy of the input variables required for the model. These key variables were largely determined by market-based research and an extensive literature review, and have been fine-tuned with extensive testing. In essence, the project has considered probability-based risk analysis techniques that required market-based assessment. The projections listed in the partner engineers’ building audit reports of the four case study buildings were fed into the property evaluation model developed by the research team. The results are strongly consistent with previously existing, less robust evaluation techniques. And importantly, this model pioneers an approach for taking full account of the triple bottom line, establishing a benchmark for related research to follow. The project’s industry partners expressed a high degree of satisfaction with the project outcomes at a recent demonstration seminar. The project in its existing form has not been geared towards commercial applications but it is anticipated that QDPW and other industry partners will benefit greatly by using this tool for the performance evaluation of property assets. The project met the objectives of the original proposal as well as all the specified milestones. The project has been completed within budget and on time. This research project has achieved the objective by establishing research foci on the model structure, the key input variable identification, the drivers of the relevant property markets, the determinants of the key variables (Research Engine no.1), the examination of risk measurement, the incorporation of risk simulation exercises (Research Engine no.2), the importance of both environmental and social factors and, finally the impact of the triple bottom line measures on the asset (Research Engine no. 3).

A comparison of farmland returns in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and United States

Rural land is still a major property asset class and rural commodity production is an important domestic and export market in all economies. This paper carries out a comprehensive analysis of both rural production and land prices in four major rural production countries. The study compares rural property values in Unites States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand over a period 1990 to 2005 and analyzes and compares the capital return and total return performance for rural land in these four countries. The analysis allows a comparison of farm land returns for both a subsidised and non-subsidised farming policy to determine if levels of farm support result in variations in farm profitability and therefore farm land values.

Assessing the impact of streetscape on residential property in lower to middle socio-economic areas

A number of factors have been shown to influence residential property prices in various locations. Studies have identified the importance of location in relation to services, transport and proximity to negative factors such as power lines and cell phone towers. Often the socio-economic status of a residential precinct can determine the overall quality and nature of the streetscapes in that area, with higher value suburbs or locations offering a better visual appearance compared to areas where these factors are not present. However, does the same value for a good streetscape apply in lower socio-economic areas or a buyers more motivated by less aesthetic factors such as size of the house, construction materials or land size. This paper analyses specific streets in a lower to middle socio-economic suburb of Christchurch New Zealand to determine if the location of a house in a street with good streetscape appeal has greater value, investment performance and saleability compared to adjoining streets with less aesthetic appeal.

Public awareness of ‘green’ residential property – an empirical survey based on data from New Zealand and Germany

Over the last few years more stringent environmental laws (e.g. the German “Energie¬ein-sparverordnung ENEV” - Energy Performance of Buildings Directive) and soaring energy prices has increased the need for the real estate industry to react and participate in overall energy reduction through efficient house construction and design, as well as upgrading the existing housing stock to be more energy efficient. Therefore the Property Economics Group at Queensland University of Technology in Australia and Nuertingen-Geislingen University in Germany are carrying out research in relation to sustainable housing construction and public awareness of “green” residential property. Part of this research is to gain an understanding of the level of knowledge and importance of these issues to the house buyer and to determine the importance of sustainable housing to the general public. The paper compares data from two different empirical studies; one of studies analyzes the situation in New Zealand, the other is focused on Germany.

The impact of property title type on residential property returns

Residential property in New Zealand comprises both freestanding residential properties and medium to high density residential properties. Medium to high density residential property comprises the typical units, townhouses and semi-detached houses common in most residential property markets. However, in many of the larger cities of New Zealand the free standing residential property market has evolved into two separate markets being freehold residential property and cross lease residential property. Cross leases have developed as a form of infill housing to reduce the urban sprawl in major canters, while reducing the time and cost for residential property developers. A cross lease is created when an existing freestanding residential property subdivides a portion of the existing land for the erection of another house on the original title, basically dividing one larger residential section into two smaller residential blocks. This paper will analyse house prices in Christchurch over the period 1992 to 2006 to determine if the various housing markets have shown similar capital returns or if there is a specific preference for a particular residential property title.

Can Risk Management boost the supply of Affordable Housing Development and Management?

A shortage of affordable housing is a major problem in Australia today. This is mainly due to the limited supply of affordable housing that is provided by the non-government housing sector. Some private housing developers see the provision of affordable housing for lower income people as a high risk investment which offers a lower return than broader market-based housing. The scarcity of suitable land, a limited government ‘subsidy’, and increasing housing costs have not provided sufficient development incentives to encourage their investment despite the existing high demand for affordable housing. This study analyses the risk management process conducted by some private and not-for-profit housing providers in South East Queensland, and draws conclusions about the relationship between risk assessments/responses and past experiences. In-depth interviews of selected non-government housing providers have been conducted to facilitate an understanding of their approach to risk assessment/response in developing and in managing affordable housing projects. These developers use an informal risk management process as part of their normal business process in accordance with industry standards. A simple qualitative matrix has been used to analyse probability and impacts using a qualitative scale - low, medium and high. For housing providers who have considered investing in affordable housing but have not yet implemented any such projects, affordable housing development is seen as an opportunity that needs to be approached with caution. The risks associated with such projects and the levels of acceptance of these are not consistently identified by current housing providers. Many interviewees agree that the recognition of financial risk and the fear of community rejection of such housing projects have restrained them from committing to such investment projects. This study suggests that implementing improvements to the risk mitigation and management framework may assist in promoting the supply of affordable housing by non-government providers.

An Analysis of UK Farmland : 1981-2004

The importance of agriculture in many countries has tended to reduce as their economies move from a resource base to a manufacturing industry base. Although the level of agricultural production in first world countries has increased over the past two decades, this increase has generally been at a less significant rate compared to other sectors of the economies. Despite this increase in secondary and high technology industries, developed countries have continued to encourage and support their agricultural industries. This support has been through both tariffs and price support. Although the average farm production property may require this support to maintain long-term production, the better farms can actually achieve production levels and commodity prices that result in these units being competitive on a free market basis. This paper will analyse the total return performance of UK farmland over the period 1981-2004. This analysis will compare the total return from rural properties in the UK and compare this performance to commercial property returns (total, office, retail, industrial), equities and gilts over this 24-year period. The analysis will be based on the IPD UK let land index and the IPD property index. The portfolio diversification and risk-reduction benefits of UK farmland will be highlighted. The analysis shows that rural property has negative correlations with equities and gilts, as well as insignificant positive correlations with retail, industrial and office property. Rural property also provides portfolio diversification benefits.

Current rural valuation practice : a survey of NSW valuers and agribusiness managers

Despite the advances that have been made in relation to the valuation of Commercial, Industrial and retail property, there has not been the same progress in relation to the valuation of rural property. Although number of rural property valuations also require the valuer to carry out a full analysis of the economic performance of the farming operations, as well as the long term environmental viability of the farm, this information is rarely used to assess the value of the property, nor is it even used for a secondary valuation method. Over the past 20 years the nature of rural valuation practice has required most rural valuers to undertake studies in both agriculture (farm management) and valuation, especially if carrying out valuation work for financial institutions. The additional farm financial and management information obtained by rural valuers exceeds that level of information required to value commercial, retail and industrial by the capitalisation of net rent/profit valuation method and is very similar to the level of information required for the valuation of commercial and retail property by the Discounted Cash Flow valuation method. On this basis the valuers specialising in rural valuation practice have the necessary skills and information to value rural properties by an income valuation method. Although the direct comparison method of valuation has been sufficient in the past to value rural properties the future use of the method as the main valuation method is limited and valuers need to adopt an income valuation method as at least a secondary valuation method to overcome the problems associated with the use of direct comparison as the only rural property valuation method, especially in view of the impact that farm technical, financial and environmental .management can have on rural property values. This paper will review the results of an extensive survey carried out by rural property valuers and agribusiness managers in NSW, in relation to the impact of farm management on rural property values and rural property valuation practice.

The Influence of Farm Management on NSW Rural Property Income and Total Average Annual Returns

The importance of agriculture in many countries has tended to reduce as their economies move from a resource base to a manufacturing industry base. Although the level of agricultural production in first world countries has increased over the past two decades, this increase has generally been at a less significant rate compared to other sectors of the economies. Despite this increase in secondary and high technology industries, developed countries have continued to encourage and support their agricultural industries. This support has been through both tariffs and price support. Following pressure from developing economies, particularly through the World Trade Organisation (WTO), GATT Uruguay round and the Cairns Group developed countries are now in various stages of winding back or de-coupling agricultural support within their economies. A major concern of farmers in protected agricultural markets is the impact of a free market trade in agricultural commodities on farm incomes, profitability and land values. This paper will analyse both the capital and income performance of the NSW rural land market over the period 1990-1999. This analysis will be based on several rural land use classifications and will compare the total return from rural properties based on the farm income generated by both the average farmer and those farmers considered to be in the top 20% of the various land use areas. The analysis will provide a comprehensive overview of rural production in a free trade economy.

Total rural land performance in a free trade economy

The importance of agriculture in many countries has tended to reduce as their economies move from a resource base to a manufacturing industry base. Although the level of agricultural production in first world countries has increased over the past two decades, this increase has generally been at a less significant rate compared to other sectors of the economies. Despite this increase in secondary and high technology industries, developed countries have continued to encourage and support their agricultural industries. This support has been through both tariffs and price support. Following pressure from developing economies, particularly through the World Trade Organisation (WTO), GATT Uruguay round and the Cairns Group Developed countries are now in various stages of winding back or de-coupling agricultural support within their economies. A major concern of farmers in protected agricultural markets is the impact of a free market trade in agricultural commodities on farm incomes and land values. This paper will analyse the capital and income performance of the NSW rural land market over the period 1990-1999. This analysis will be based on land use and will compare the total return from rural properties based on world agricultural commodity prices.

An analysis and comparison of rural land sales

Rural land prices, in developed, free trade real estate markets, are influenced not only by prevailing economic conditions but also physical factors such as climate, topography and soil type. In broad acre farming and grazing operations, both commodity price and yields determine farm income. Yields, in turn, are a function of climate, topography and soil type. The strength of a rural land market is influenced by the overall rural economy in a Country, State or region. These differences in rural land markets can also vary within smaller regions. It has been held that rural land, in relative safe production areas, is less effected by adverse economic and climatic factors than land in more marginal agricultural areas. This paper will analyse rural land sales in both traditional cropping areas and marginal cropping areas for the period 1975 to 1996. The analysis will determine the overall trend in rural land prices over the period, compare the average annual return between marginal and established farming areas and determine which economic and production factors have influenced this change. The impact of this analysis will also be discussed in relation to rural land appraisal.

Bubble geometry and chaotic pricing behaviour

This paper is a deductive theoretical enquiry into the flow of effects from the geometry of price bubbles/busts, to price indices, to pricing behaviours of sellers and buyers, and back to price bubbles/busts. The intent of the analysis is to suggest analytical approaches to identify the presence, maturity, and/or sustainability of a price bubble. We present a pricing model to emulate market behaviour, including numeric examples and charts of the interaction of supply and demand. The model extends into dynamic market solutions myopic (single- and multi-period) backward looking rational expectations to demonstrate how buyers and sellers interact to affect supply and demand and to show how capital gain expectations can be a destabilising influence – i.e. the lagged effects of past price gains can drive the market price away from long-run market-worth. Investing based on the outputs of past price-based valuation models appear to be more of a game-of-chance than a sound investment strategy.

Can risk management boost the supply of affordable housing development and management?

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyse the risk management process conducted by some private and not-for-profit affordable housing providers in South East Queensland, and draw conclusions about the relationship between risk assessments/responses and past experiences.----- Design/methodology/approach: In-depth interviews of selected non-government housing providers have been conducted to facilitate an understanding of their approach to risk assessment in developing and in managing affordable housing projects. Qualitative data are analysed using thematic analysis to find emerging themes suggested by interview participants.----- Findings: The paper finds that informal risk management process is used as part of normal business process in accordance with industry standards. Many interviewees agree that the recognition of financial risk and the fear of community rejection of such housing projects have restrained them from committing to such investment projects. The levels of acceptance of risk are not always consistent across housing providers which create opportunities to conduct multi-stakeholder partnership to reduce overall risk.----- Research limitations/implications: The paper has implications for developers or investors who seek to include affordable housing as part of their portfolio. However, data collected in the study are a cross-section of interviews that will not include the impact on recent tax incentives offers by the Australian Commonwealth Government.----- Practical implications: The study suggests that implementing improvements to the risk mitigation and management framework may assist in promoting the supply of affordable housing by non-government providers.----- Originality/value: The focus of the study is the interaction between partnerships and risk management in development and management of affordable rental housing.

An evaluation of viability of public private partnerships in social infrastructure procurement projects in Queensland, Australia

Public private partnerships (PPP) have been widely used as a method for public infrastructure project delivery not only locally and internationally, however the adoption of PPPs in social infrastructure procurement has still been very limited. The objective of this paper is to investigate the potential of implementation of current PPP framework in social affordable housing projects in South East Queensland. Data were collected from 22 interviewees with rich experiences in the industry. The findings of this study show that affordable housing investment have been considered by the industry practitioners as a risky business in comparison to other private rental housing investment. The main determents of the adoption of PPPs in social infrastructure project are the tenant-related factors, such as the inability of paying rent and the inability of caring the property. The study also suggests the importance of seeking strategic partnership with community-based organisation that has experiences in managing similar tenants’ profiles. Current PPP guideline is also viewed as inappropriate for the affordable housing projects, but the principle of VFM framework and risk allocation in PPPs still be applied to the affordable housing projects. This study helps to understand the viability of PPP in social housing procurement projects, and point out the importance of developing guideline for multi-stakeholder partnership and the expansion of the current VFM and PPPs guidelines.