A Complexity Based Model for Quantifying Forensic Evidential Probabilities

An operational complexity model (OCM) is proposed to enable the complexity of both the cognitive and the computational components of a process to be determined. From the complexity of formation of a set of traces via a specified route a measure of the probability of that route can be determined. By determining the complexities of alternative routes leading to the formation of the same set of traces, the odds ratio indicating the relative plausibility of the alternative routes can be found. An illustrative application to a BitTorrent piracy case is presented, and the results obtained suggest that the OCM is capable of providing a realistic estimate of the odds ratio for two competing hypotheses. It is also demonstrated that the OCM can be straightforwardly refined to encompass a variety of circumstances.

Essays on decision sciences: exploring cognition, information processing, and complexity

This thesis provides three original contributions to the field of Decision Sciences. The first contribution explores the field of heuristics and biases. New variations of the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT--a test to measure "the ability or disposition to resist reporting the response that first comes to mind"), are provided. The original CRT (S. Frederick [2005] Journal of Economic Perspectives, v. 19:4, pp.24-42) has items in which the response is immediate--and erroneous. It is shown that by merely varying the numerical parameters of the problems, large deviations in response are found. Not only the final results are affected by the proposed variations, but so is processing fluency. It seems that numbers' magnitudes serve as a cue to activate system-2 type reasoning. The second contribution explores Managerial Algorithmics Theory (M. Moldoveanu [2009] Strategic Management Journal, v. 30, pp. 737-763); an ambitious research program that states that managers display cognitive choices with a "preference towards solving problems of low computational complexity". An empirical test of this hypothesis is conducted, with results showing that this premise is not supported. A number of problems are designed with the intent of testing the predictions from managerial algorithmics against the predictions of cognitive psychology. The results demonstrate (once again) that framing effects profoundly affect choice, and (an original insight) that managers are unable to distinguish computational complexity problem classes. The third contribution explores a new approach to a computationally complex problem in marketing: the shelf space allocation problem (M-H Yang [2001] European Journal of Operational Research, v. 131, pp.107--118). A new representation for a genetic algorithm is developed, and computational experiments demonstrate its feasibility as a practical solution method. These studies lie at the interface of psychology and economics (with bounded rationality and the heuristics and biases programme), psychology, strategy, and computational complexity, and heuristics for computationally hard problems in management science.

Overconfidence and confirmation bias: are future managers vulnerable?

Decision makers often use ‘rules of thumb’, or heuristics, to help them handling decision situations (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979b). Those cognitive shortcuts are taken by the brain to cope with complexity and time limitation of decisions, by reducing the burden of information processing (Hodgkinson et al, 1999; Newell and Simon, 1972). Although crucial for decision-making, heuristics come at the cost of occasionally sending us off course, that is, make us fall into judgment traps (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974). Over fifty years of psychological research has shown that heuristics can lead to systematic errors, or biases, in decision-making. This study focuses on two particularly impactful biases to decision-making – the overconfidence and confirmation biases. A specific group – top management school students and recent graduates - were subject to classic experiments to measure their level of susceptibility to those biases. This population is bound to take decision positions at companies, and eventually make decisions that will impact not only their companies but society at large. The results show that this population is strongly biased by overconfidence, but less so to the confirmation bias. No significant relationship between the level of susceptibility to the overconfidence and to the confirmation bias was found.

Mosaicos de áreas protegidas e unidades de conservação. Dificuldades e desafios num arranjo de governança híbrida: o caso do Mosaico Bocaina

O objetivo principal desta tese é compreender o funcionamento de um mosaico de áreas protegidas e unidades de conservação – o Mosaico Bocaina. Entende-se hoje que a política de conservação de biodiversidade depende da criação e adequada gestão de áreas protegidas. No entanto, a apropriação estatal de porções do território se deu por meio de decretos de criação de unidades de conservação num período em que não era obrigatória a consulta à população que habita essas localidades, o que acabou gerando inúmeros inconvenientes para ambos os lados e um verdadeiro imbróglio jurídico quando se trata do reconhecimento dos direitos difusos. O Mosaico Bocaina foi criado por uma portaria do Ministério do Meio Ambiente no final de 2006. Desde 2007 vem tentando se firmar como um instrumento de planejamento e gestão integrada e participativa de um conjunto unidades de conservação. Tenta-se também mitigar e buscar possíveis soluções para conflitos fundiários históricos criados pela sobreposição de territórios oficiais e tradicionais. Por meio da análise sistemática dos documentos produzidos no âmbito do seu Conselho Consultivo, e do acompanhamento das discussões de temas caros aos atores interagindo nesse fórum de governança híbrida, procuramos entender por que certos temas avançam e entram na agenda, sendo encaminhados para as instâncias decisórias competentes, e outros nem sequer conseguem ser processados, sendo bloqueados assim que entram na pauta. Identificamos que tal processo é resultado da dinâmica de configuração de forças de duas coalizões de defesa que disputam, mais que compartilham, espaços no território, e sempre polarizaram as discussões. De um lado, a coalizão pró-biodiversidade, que agrega gestores de unidades de conservação (tanto de proteção integral quanto de uso sustentado) e outros atores cujo foco nem sempre é uma agenda claramente conservacionista, mas excludente. De outro, a coalizão pró-sociodiversidade, que luta pela adoção de uma agenda socioambientalista e alternativa, com a inclusão e garantia do protagonismo das comunidades tradicionais nos projetos de desenvolvimento local sustentável. Acreditamos que essa polarização e dificuldade de construção de consensos baseados em princípios de colaboração e cooperação é resultado da própria complexidade da gestão da governança em fóruns híbridos como esse, complexidade esta derivada da coexistência de valores, preferências e interesses muitas vezes divergentes. Mas também conseguimos identificar outros fatores específicos, resultados de características locais e/ou escolhas realizadas pelo coletivo de atores ao longo da trajetória. A enorme assimetria de informação e poder entre os atores participantes, por exemplo, dificulta o desenvolvimento de confiança e mecanismos de reciprocidade. A adoção de uma coordenação colegiada, por outro lado, acabou comprometendo o surgimento de uma liderança ou instância neutra que funcionasse como mediadora dos processos de negociação entre as partes. O profundo desconhecimento das possibilidades – mas, sobretudo, também dos limites – dos mosaicos de áreas protegidas e unidades de conservação como instrumento de gestão territorial dentro do amplo Sistema Nacional de Unidades de Conservação gera expectativas de solução de conflitos que dependem de decisões que são tomadas alhures, o que acaba frustrando e desmobilizando os participantes de ambos os lados. A imagem de aparente apatia dos órgãos ambientais federais e estaduais, por sua vez, derivada da morosidade dos processos públicos, tende a infundir ainda mais incerteza no relacionamento entre os atores.

Organizations redesign and building of information systems

Develop software is still a risky business. After 60 years of experience, this community is still not able to consistently build Information Systems (IS) for organizations with predictable quality, within previously agreed budget and time constraints. Although software is changeable we are still unable to cope with the amount and complexity of change that organizations demand for their IS. To improve results, developers followed two alternatives: Frameworks that increase productivity but constrain the flexibility of possible solutions; Agile ways of developing software that keep flexibility with less upfront commitments. With strict frameworks, specific hacks have to be put in place to get around the framework construction options. In time this leads to inconsistent architectures that are harder to maintain due to incomplete documentation and human resources turnover. The main goals of this work is to create a new way to develop flexible IS for organizations, using web technologies, in a faster, better and cheaper way that is more suited to handle organizational change. To do so we propose an adaptive object model that uses a new ontology for data and action with strict normalizing rules. These rules should bound the effects of changes that can be better tested and therefore corrected. Interfaces are built with templates of resources that can be reused and extended in a flexible way. The “state of the world” for each IS is determined by all production and coordination acts that agents performed over time, even those performed by external systems. When bugs are found during maintenance, their past cascading effects can be checked through simulation, re-running the log of transaction acts over time and checking results with previous records. This work implements a prototype with part of the proposed system in order to have a preliminary assessment its feasibility and limitations.

Membrane-bound alkaline phosphatase from ectopic mineralization and rat bone marrow cell culture

Cells from rat bone marrow exhibit the proliferation-differentiation sequence of osteoblasts, form mineralized extracellular matrix in vitro and release alkaline phosphatase into the medium. Membrane-bound alkaline phosphatase was obtained by method that is easy to reproduce, simpler and fast when compared with the method used to obtain the enzyme from rat osseous plate. The membrane-bound alkaline phosphatase from cultures of rat bone marrow cells has a MWr of about 120 kDa and specific PNPP activity of 1200 U/tng. The ecto-enzyme is anchored to the plasma membrane by the GPI anchor and can be released by PIPLC (selective treatment) or polidocanol (0.2 mg/mL protein and 1% (w/v) detergent). The apparent optimum pH for PNPP hydrolysis by the enzyme was pH 10. This fraction hydrolyzes ATP (240 U/mg), ADP (350 U/ mg), glucose 1-phosphate (1100 U/mg), glucose 6-phosphate (340 Wing), fructose 6-phosphate (460 U/mg), pyrophosphate (330 U/mg) and (3glycerophosphate (600 U/mg). Cooperative effects were observed for the hydrolysis of PPi and beta-glycerophosphate. PNPPase activity was inhibited by 0.1 mM vanadate (46%), 0.1 mM ZnCl2 (68%), 1 mM levamisole (66%), 1 mM arsenate (44%), 10 mM phosphate (21%) and 1 mM theophylline (72%). We report the biochemical characterization of membrane-bound alkaline phosphatase obtained from rat bone marrow cells cultures, using a method that is simple, rapid and easy to reproduce. Its properties are compared with those of rat osseous plate enzyme and revealed that the alkaline phosphatase obtained has some kinetics and structural behaviors with higher levels of enzymatic activity, facilitating the comprehension of the mineralization process and its function. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Upregulation of soluble and membrane-bound human leukocyte antigen G expression is primarily observed in the milder histopathological stages of chronic hepatitis C virus infection

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a worldwide health problem that may evolve to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Incompletely understood immune system mechanisms have been associated with impaired viral clearance. The nonclassical class I human leukocyte antigen G (HLA-G) molecule may downregulate immune system cell functions exhibiting well-recognized tolerogenic properties. HCV genotype was analyzed in chronic HCV-infected patients. Because HLA-G expression may be induced by certain viruses, we evaluated the presence of HLA-G in the liver microenvironment obtained from 89 biopsies of patients harboring chronic HCV infection and stratified according to clinical and histopathological features. Overall, data indicated that HCV genotype 1 was predominant, especially subgenotype 1a, with a prevalence of 87%. HLA-G expression was observed in 45(51%) liver specimens, and it was more frequent in milder stages of chronic hepatitis (67.4%) than in moderate (27.8%; p = 0.009) and severe (36.0%; p = 0.021) stages of the disease. Altogether, these results suggest that the expression of HLA-G in the context of HCV is a complex process modulated by many factors, which may contribute to an immunologic environment favoring viral persistence. However, because the milder forms predominantly expressed HLA-G, a protective role of this molecule may not be excluded. (C) 2012 American Society for Histocompatibility and Immunogenetics. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ionically bound peroxidase from peach fruit

Soluble, ionically bound peroxidase (POD) and polyphenoloxidase (PPO) were extracted from the pulp of peach fruit during ripening at 20degreesC Ionically bound form was purified 6.1 -fold by DEAE-cellulose and Sephadex G-100 chromatography. The purified enzyme showed only one peak of activity on Sephadex G-100 and PAGE revealed that the enzyme was purified by the procedures adopted. The purified enzyme showed a molecular weight of 29000 Da, maximum activity at pH 5.0 and at 40degreesC the calculated apparent activation energy (Ea) for the reaction was 10.04 kcal/mol. The enzyme was heat-labile in the temperature range of 60 to 75degreesC with a fast inactivation at 75degreesC Measurement of residual activity showed a stabilizing effect of sucrose at various temperature/sugar concentrations (0, 10, 20 %, w/w), with an activation energy (Ea) for inactivation increasing with sucrose concentration from 0 to 20% (w/w). The Km and V-max values were 9.35 and 15.38 mM for O-dianisidine and H2O2, respectively. The bound enzyme was inhibited competitively by (.)ferulic, caffeic and protocatechuic acids with different values of Ki,. L-cysteine, p-coumaric and indolacetic acid and Fe++ also inhibited the enzyme but at a lower grade. N-ethylmaleimide and p-CMB were not effective to inhibit the enzyme demonstrating the non-essentiality of SH groups.

Two-dimensional electron states bound to an off-plane donor in a magnetic field

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

BOUND HYDROGENIC STATES IN A MAGNETIC FIELD: A FINITE-DIFFERENCE APPROACH

A finite-difference scheme is used to calculate bound electronic states of an electron in a hydrogen atom subject to a magnetic field. The numerical results are in good agreement with exact results, in the absence of the magnetic field, and with a two-parameters variational calculation, when the magnetic field is applied.

Evolutionary Changes in the Complexity of the Tectum of Nontetrapods: A Cladistic Approach

Background: The tectum is a structure localized in the roof of the midbrain in vertebrates, and is taken to be highly conserved in evolution. The present article assessed three hypotheses concerning the evolution of lamination and citoarchitecture of the tectum of nontetrapod animals: 1) There is a significant degree of phylogenetic inertia in both traits studied (number of cellular layers and number of cell classes in tectum); 2) Both traits are positively correlated accross evolution after correction for phylogeny; and 3) Different developmental pathways should generate different patterns of lamination and cytoarchitecture.Methodology/Principal Findings: The hypotheses were tested using analytical-computational tools for phylogenetic hypothesis testing. Both traits presented a considerably large phylogenetic signal and were positively associated. However, no difference was found between two clades classified as per the general developmental pathways of their brains.Conclusions/Significance: The evidence amassed points to more variation in the tectum than would be expected by phylogeny in three species from the taxa analysed; this variation is not better explained by differences in the main course of development, as would be predicted by the developmental clade hypothesis. Those findings shed new light on the evolution of an functionally important structure in nontetrapods, the most basal radiations of vertebrates.

Bound states by a pseudoscalar Coulomb potential in one-plus-one dimensions

The Dirac equation is solved for a pseudoscalar Coulomb potential in a two-dimensional world. An infinite sequence of bounded solutions are obtained. These results are in sharp contrast with those ones obtained in 3 + 1 dimensions where no bound-state solutions are found. Next the general two-dimensional problem for pseudoscalar power-law potentials is addressed consenting us to conclude that a nonsingular potential leads to bounded solutions. The behaviour of the upper and lower components of the Dirac spinor for a confining linear potential nonconserving- as well as conserving-parity, even if the potential is unbounded from below, is discussed in some detail. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bound states of the Duffin-Kemmer-Petiau equation with a mixed minimal-nonminimal vector cusp potential

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Bound states of bosons and fermions in a mixed vector-scalar coupling with unequal shapes for the potentials

The Klein - Gordon and the Dirac equations with vector and scalar potentials are investigated under a more general condition, V(v) + V(s) = constant. These intrinsically relativistic and isospectral problems are solved in the case of squared hyperbolic potential functions and bound states for either particles or antiparticles are found. The eigenvalues and eigenfuntions are discussed in some detail and the effective Compton wavelength is revealed to be an important physical quantity. It is revealed that a boson is better localized than a fermion when they have the same mass and are subjected to the same potentials.