Meta-analysis: a unifying meta-likelihood approach framing unobserved heterogeneity, study covariates, publication bias, and study quality

OBJECTIVES: This contribution provides a unifying concept for meta-analysis integrating the handling of unobserved heterogeneity, study covariates, publication bias and study quality. It is important to consider these issues simultaneously to avoid the occurrence of artifacts, and a method for doing so is suggested here. METHODS: The approach is based upon the meta-likelihood in combination with a general linear nonparametric mixed model, which lays the ground for all inferential conclusions suggested here. RESULTS: The concept is illustrated at hand of a meta-analysis investigating the relationship of hormone replacement therapy and breast cancer. The phenomenon of interest has been investigated in many studies for a considerable time and different results were reported. In 1992 a meta-analysis by Sillero-Arenas et al. concluded a small, but significant overall effect of 1.06 on the relative risk scale. Using the meta-likelihood approach it is demonstrated here that this meta-analysis is due to considerable unobserved heterogeneity. Furthermore, it is shown that new methods are available to model this heterogeneity successfully. It is argued further to include available study covariates to explain this heterogeneity in the meta-analysis at hand. CONCLUSIONS: The topic of HRT and breast cancer has again very recently become an issue of public debate, when results of a large trial investigating the health effects of hormone replacement therapy were published indicating an increased risk for breast cancer (risk ratio of 1.26). Using an adequate regression model in the previously published meta-analysis an adjusted estimate of effect of 1.14 can be given which is considerably higher than the one published in the meta-analysis of Sillero-Arenas et al. In summary, it is hoped that the method suggested here contributes further to a good meta-analytic practice in public health and clinical disciplines.

A demonstration of attentional bias, using a novel dual task paradigm, towards clinically salient material in recovering alcohol abuse patients?

Background. This study examined whether alcohol abuse patients are characterized either by enhanced schematic processing of alcohol related cues or by an attentional bias towards the processing of alcohol cues. Method. Abstinent alcohol abusers (N = 25) and non-clinical control participants (N = 24) performed a dual task paradigm in which they had to make an odd/even decision to a centrally presented number while performing a peripherally presented lexical decision task. Stimuli on the lexical decision task comprised alcohol words, neutral words and non-words. In addition, participants completed an incidental recall task for the words presented in the lexical decision task. Results. It was found that, in the presence of alcohol related words, the performance of patients on the odd/even decision task was poorer than in the presence of other stimului. In addition, patients displayed slower lexical decision times for alcohol related words. Both groups displayed better recall for alcohol words than for other stimuli. Conclusions. These results are interpreted as supporting neither model of drug cravings. Rather, it is proposed that, in the presence of alcohol stimuli, alcohol abuse patients display a breakdown in the ability to focus attention.

Effect of psychological treatment on attentional bias in eating disorders

Objective: The aims of these studies were (a) to investigate the relationship between attentional bias and eating disorders and (b) examine the impact of psychological treatment on attentional bias. Method: The first study compared performance on a pictorial dot probe of 82 female patients with clinical eating disorders and 44 healthy female controls. The second study compared the performance of 31 patients with eating disorder on the same task before and after receiving 20 weeks of standardized cognitive behavior therapy. Twenty-four patients with eating disorder served as wait-list controls. Results: With the exception of neutral shape stimuli, attentional biases for eating, shape, and weight stimuli were greater in the patient sample than the healthy controls. The second study found that attentional biases significantly reduced after active treatment only. Conclusion: Attentional biases may be an expression of the eating disorder. The question of whether such biases warrant specific intervention requires further investigation. (C) 2008 by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Attentional bias in eating disorders

Objective: To examine the relationship between eating disorders and attentional biases. Method: The first study comprised 23 female patients with clinical eating disorders, women with high levels of anxiety (n = 19), and three female normal control groups comprising low (n = 31), moderate (n = 21), or high levels of shape concern (n 23). The second study comprised 82 women with clinical eating disorders and 44 healthy controls. All participants completed measures of eating disorder psychopathology and completed a modified pictorial dot-probe task. Results: In the first study, biases were found for negative eating and neutral weight pictures, and for positive eating pictures in women with eating disorders; these biases were greater than those found in anxious and normal controls. The second study replicated these findings and biases were also found for negative and neutral shape stimuli. Conclusion: It is concluded that future research should establish whether such biases warrant specific therapeutic interventions. (c) 2007 by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Evidence for unusual spatial location coding in Williams syndrome: an explanation for the local bias in visuo-spatial construction tasks?

Individuals with Williams syndrome (WS) display poor visuo-spatial cognition relative to verbal abilities. Furthermore, whilst perceptual abilities are delayed, visuo-spatial construction abilities are comparatively even weaker, and are characterised by a local bias. We investigated whether his differentiation in visuo-spatial abilities can be explained by a deficit in coding spatial location in WS. This can be measured by assessing participants' understanding of the spatial relations between objects within a visual scene. Coordinate and categorical spatial relations were investigated independently in four participant groups: 21 individuals with WS; 21 typically developing (TD) children matched for non-verbal ability; 20 typically developing controls of a lower non-verbal ability; and 21 adults. A third task measured understanding of visual colour relations. Results indicated first, that the comprehension of categorical and coordinate spatial relations is equally poor in WS. Second, that the comprehension of visual relations is also at an equivalent level to spatial relational understanding in this population. These results can explain the difference in performance on visuo-spatial perception and construction tasks in WS. In addition, both the WS and control groups displayed response biases in the spatial tasks. However, the direction of bias differed across the groups. This finding is explored in relation to current theories of spatial location coding. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A nutrient increment method for reducing bias in global biogeochemical models

Assimilation of physical variables into coupled physical/biogeochemical models poses considerable difficulties. One problem is that data assimilation can break relationships between physical and biological variables. As a consequence, biological tracers, especially nutrients, are incorrectly displaced in the vertical, resulting in unrealistic biogeochemical fields. To prevent this, we present the idea of applying an increment to the nutrient field within a data assimilating model to ensure that nutrient-potential density relationships are maintained within a water column during assimilation. After correcting the nutrients, it is assumed that other biological variables rapidly adjust to the corrected nutrient fields. We applied this method to a 17 year run of the 2° NEMO ocean-ice model coupled to the PlankTOM5 ecosystem model. Results were compared with a control with no assimilation, and with a model with physical assimilation but no nutrient increment. In the nutrient incrementing experiment, phosphate distributions were improved both at high latitudes and at the equator. At midlatitudes, assimilation generated unrealistic advective upwelling of nutrients within the boundary currents, which spread into the subtropical gyres resulting in more biased nutrient fields. This result was largely unaffected by the nutrient increment and is probably due to boundary currents being poorly resolved in a 2° model. Changes to nutrient distributions fed through into other biological parameters altering primary production, air-sea CO2 flux, and chlorophyll distributions. These secondary changes were most pronounced in the subtropical gyres and at the equator, which are more nutrient limited than high latitudes.

Video activity extraction and reporting with incremental unsupervised learning

The present work presents a new method for activity extraction and reporting from video based on the aggregation of fuzzy relations. Trajectory clustering is first employed mainly to discover the points of entry and exit of mobiles appearing in the scene. In a second step, proximity relations between resulting clusters of detected mobiles and contextual elements from the scene are modeled employing fuzzy relations. These can then be aggregated employing typical soft-computing algebra. A clustering algorithm based on the transitive closure calculation of the fuzzy relations allows building the structure of the scene and characterises the ongoing different activities of the scene. Discovered activity zones can be reported as activity maps with different granularities thanks to the analysis of the transitive closure matrix. Taking advantage of the soft relation properties, activity zones and related activities can be labeled in a more human-like language. We present results obtained on real videos corresponding to apron monitoring in the Toulouse airport in France.

Theory of mind and attentional bias to facial emotional expressions: A preliminary study

Theory of mind ability has been associated with performance in interpersonal interactions and has been found to influence aspects such as emotion recognition, social competence, and social anxiety. Being able to attribute mental states to others requires attention to subtle communication cues such as facial emotional expressions. Decoding and interpreting emotions expressed by the face, especially those with negative valence, are essential skills to successful social interaction. The current study explored the association between theory of mind skills and attentional bias to facial emotional expressions. According to the study hypothesis, individuals with poor theory of mind skills showed preferential attention to negative faces over both non-negative faces and neutral objects. Tentative explanations for the findings are offered emphasizing the potential adaptive role of vigilance for threat as a way of allocating a limited capacity to interpret others’ mental states to obtain as much information as possible about potential danger in the social environment.

Proposed best practice for statisticians in the reporting and publication of pharmaceutical industry-sponsored clinical trials

In this paper we set out what we consider to be a set of best practices for statisticians in the reporting of pharmaceutical industry-sponsored clinical trials. We make eight recommendations covering: author responsibilities and recognition; publication timing; conflicts of interest; freedom to act; full author access to data; trial registration and independent review. These recommendations are made in the context of the prominent role played by statisticians in the design, conduct, analysis and reporting of pharmaceutical sponsored trials and the perception of the reporting of these trials in the wider community.

Combined bias and outlier identification in dynamic data reconciliation

Measured process data normally contain inaccuracies because the measurements are obtained using imperfect instruments. As well as random errors one can expect systematic bias caused by miscalibrated instruments or outliers caused by process peaks such as sudden power fluctuations. Data reconciliation is the adjustment of a set of process data based on a model of the process so that the derived estimates conform to natural laws. In this paper, techniques for the detection and identification of both systematic bias and outliers in dynamic process data are presented. A novel technique for the detection and identification of systematic bias is formulated and presented. The problem of detection, identification and elimination of outliers is also treated using a modified version of a previously available clustering technique. These techniques are also combined to provide a global dynamic data reconciliation (DDR) strategy. The algorithms presented are tested in isolation and in combination using dynamic simulations of two continuous stirred tank reactors (CSTR).

Examination of long-wave radiative bias in general circulation models over North Africa during May–July

Satellite data are used to quantify and examine the bias in the outgoing long-wave (LW) radiation over North Africa during May–July simulated by a range of climate models and the Met Office global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Simulations from an ensemble-mean of multiple climate models overestimate outgoing clear-sky long-wave radiation (LWc) by more than 20 W m−2 relative to observations from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) for May–July 2000 over parts of the west Sahara, and by 9 W m−2 for the North Africa region (20°W–30°E, 10–40°N). Experiments with the atmosphere-only version of the High-resolution Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HiGEM), suggest that including mineral dust radiative effects removes this bias. Furthermore, only by reducing surface temperature and emissivity by unrealistic amounts is it possible to explain the magnitude of the bias. Comparing simulations from the Met Office NWP model with satellite observations from Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) instruments suggests that the model overestimates the LW by 20–40 W m−2 during North African summer. The bias declines over the period 2003–2008, although this is likely to relate to improvements in the model and inhomogeneity in the satellite time series. The bias in LWc coincides with high aerosol dust loading estimated from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), including during the GERBILS field campaign (18–28 June 2007) where model overestimates in LWc greater than 20 W m−2 and OMI-estimated aerosol optical depth (AOD) greater than 0.8 are concurrent around 20°N, 0–20°W. A model-minus-GERB LW bias of around 30 W m−2 coincides with high AOD during the period 18–21 June 2007, although differences in cloud cover also impact the model–GERB differences. Copyright © Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright, 2010