Free Flows, Limited Diversification: Explaining the Fall and Rise of Stock Market Correlations, 1890-2001

Using a new dataset on capital account openness, we investigate why equity return correlations changed over the last century. Based on a new, long-run dataset on capital account regulations in a group of 16 countries over the period 1890-2001, we show that correlations increase as financial markets are liberalized. These findings are robust to controlling for both the Forbes-Rigobon bias and global averages in equity return correlations. We test the robustness of our conclusions, and show that greater synchronization of fundamentals is not the main cause of increasing correlations. These results imply that the home bias puzzle may be smaller than traditionally claimed.

Aging effects on selective attention-related electroencephalographic patterns during face encoding.

Previous electrophysiological studies revealed that human faces elicit an early visual event-related potential (ERP) within the occipito-temporal cortex, the N170 component. Although face perception has been proposed to rely on automatic processing, the impact of selective attention on N170 remains controversial both in young and elderly individuals. Using early visual ERP and alpha power analysis, we assessed the influence of aging on selective attention to faces during delayed-recognition tasks for face and letter stimuli, examining 36 elderly and 20 young adults with preserved cognition. Face recognition performance worsened with age. Aging induced a latency delay of the N1 component for faces and letters, as well as of the face N170 component. Contrasting with letters, ignored faces elicited larger N1 and N170 components than attended faces in both age groups. This counterintuitive attention effect on face processing persisted when scenes replaced letters. In contrast with young, elderly subjects failed to suppress irrelevant letters when attending faces. Whereas attended stimuli induced a parietal alpha band desynchronization within 300-1000 ms post-stimulus with bilateral-to-right distribution for faces and left lateralization for letters, ignored and passively viewed stimuli elicited a central alpha synchronization larger on the right hemisphere. Aging delayed the latency of this alpha synchronization for both face and letter stimuli, and reduced its amplitude for ignored letters. These results suggest that due to their social relevance, human faces may cause paradoxical attention effects on early visual ERP components, but they still undergo classical top-down control as a function of endogenous selective attention. Aging does not affect the face bottom-up alerting mechanism but reduces the top-down suppression of distracting letters, possibly impinging upon face recognition, and more generally delays the top-down suppression of task-irrelevant information.

Do institutions and culture matter for business cycles?

We examine the relationship between institutions, culture and cyclical fluctuations for a sampleof 45 European, Middle Eastern and North African countries. Better governance is associated withshorter and less severe contractions and milder expansions. Certain cultural traits, such as lack ofacceptance of power distance and individualism, are also linked business cycle features. Businesscycle synchronization is tightly related to similarities in the institutional environment. Mediterraneancountries conform to these general tendencies.

A tractable consideration set structure for network revenue management

Models incorporating more realistic models of customer behavior, as customers choosing from an offerset, have recently become popular in assortment optimization and revenue management. The dynamicprogram for these models is intractable and approximated by a deterministic linear program called theCDLP which has an exponential number of columns. When there are products that are being consideredfor purchase by more than one customer segment, CDLP is difficult to solve since column generationis known to be NP-hard. However, recent research indicates that a formulation based on segments withcuts imposing consistency (SDCP+) is tractable and approximates the CDLP value very closely. In thispaper we investigate the structure of the consideration sets that make the two formulations exactly equal.We show that if the segment consideration sets follow a tree structure, CDLP = SDCP+. We give acounterexample to show that cycles can induce a gap between the CDLP and the SDCP+ relaxation.We derive two classes of valid inequalities called flow and synchronization inequalities to further improve(SDCP+), based on cycles in the consideration set structure. We give a numeric study showing theperformance of these cycle-based cuts.

Riding the South Sea bubble

This paper presents a case study of a well-informed investor in the South Sea bubble. We argue that Hoare's Bank, a fledgling West End London banker, knew that a bubble was in progress and nonetheless invested in the stock; it was profitable to "ride the bubble." Using a unique dataset on daily trades, we show that this sophisticated investor was not constrained by institutional factors such as restrictions on short sales or agency problems. Instead, this study demonstrates that predictable investor sentiment can prevent attacks on a bubble; rational investors may only attack when some coordinating event promotes joint action.

A century of global equity market correlations

In this paper, we use a unique long-run dataset of regulatory constraints on capital account openness to explain stock market correlations. Since stock returns themselves are highly volatile, any examination of what drives correlations needs to focus on long runs of data. This is particularly true since some of the short-term changes in co-movements appear to reverse themselves (Delroy Hunter 2005). We argue that changes in the co-movement of indices have not been random. Rather, they are mainly driven by greater freedom to move funds from one country to another. In related work, Geert Bekaert and Campbell Harvey (2000) show that equity correlations increase after liberalization of capital markets, using a number of case studies from emerging countries. We examine this pattern systematically for the last century, and find it to be most pronounced in the recent past. We compare the importance of capital account openness with one main alternative explanation, the growing synchronization of economic fundamentals. We conclude that greater openness has been the single most important cause of growing correlations during the last quarter of a century, though increasingly correlated economic fundamentals also matter. In the conclusion, we offer some thoughts on why the effects of greater openness appear to be so much stronger today than they were during the last era of globalization before 1914.

Twitch and M-wave potentiation induced by intermittent maximal voluntary quadriceps contractions: Differences between direct quadriceps and femoral nerve stimulation.

Introduction: To investigate differences in twitch and M-wave potentiation in the quadriceps femoris when electrical stimulation is applied over the quadriceps muscle belly versus the femoral nerve trunk. Methods: M-waves and mechanical twitches were evoked using direct quadriceps muscle and femoral nerve stimulation between 48 successive isometric maximal voluntary contractions (MVC) from 10 young, healthy subjects. Potentiation was investigated by analyzing the changes in M-wave amplitude recorded from the vastus medialis (VM) and vastus lateralis (VL) muscles and in quadriceps peak twitch force. Results: Potentiation of twitch, VM M-wave, and VL M-wave were greater for femoral nerve than for direct quadriceps stimulation (P<0.05). Despite a 50% decrease in MVC force, the amplitude of the M-waves increased significantly during exercise. Conclusions: In addition to enhanced electrogenic Na(+) -K(+) pumping, other factors (such as synchronization in activation of muscle fibers and muscle architectural properties) might significantly influence the magnitude of M-wave enlargement. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Early disturbances of gamma band dynamics in mild cognitive impairment.

Recent studies have indicated that gamma band oscillations participate in the temporal binding needed for the synchronization of cortical networks involved in short-term memory and attentional processes. To date, no study has explored the temporal dynamics of gamma band in the early stages of dementia. At baseline, gamma band analysis was performed in 29 cases with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) during the n-back task. Based on phase diagrams, multiple linear regression models were built to explore the relationship between the cognitive status and gamma oscillation changes over time. Individual measures of phase diagram complexity were made using fractal dimension values. After 1 year, all cases were assessed neuropsychologically using the same battery. A total of 16 MCI patients showed progressive cognitive decline (PMCI) and 13 remained stable (SMCI). When adjusted for gamma values at lag -2, and -3 ms, PMCI cases displayed significantly lower average changes in gamma values than SMCI cases both in detection and 2-back tasks. Gamma fractal dimension of PMCI cases displayed significantly higher gamma fractal dimension values compared to SMCI cases. This variable explained 11.8% of the cognitive variability in this series. Our data indicate that the progression of cognitive decline in MCI is associated with early deficits in temporal binding that occur during the activation of selective attention processes.

Do institutional changes affect business cycles? Evidence from Europe

We study the effects that the Maastricht treaty, the creation of the ECB, andthe Euro changeover had on the dynamics of European business cycles using a panelVAR and data from ten European countries - seven from the Euro area and threeoutside of it. There are changes in the features of European business cycles and in thetransmission of shocks. They precede the three events of interest and are more linkedto a general process of European convergence and synchronization.

Desenvolupament d'eines informàtiques per a residències geriàtriques

L’envelliment de la població demana cada cop més centres especialitzats en geriatria en els països desenvolupats. Aquests mateixos països pateixen recentment una falta de personal qualificat en infermeria. Aquests dos factors es combinen i posen en evidència la necessitat de desenvolupar eines informàtiques que modernitzin les residències geriàtriques. El projecte que s’ha desenvolupat consisteix en una aplicació de gestió d’una residència geriàtrica amb una base de dades centralitzada en un PC des de la qual s’hi pot accedir a través d’una aplicació feta per PDA. La seva funció principal és poder agilitzar tota la repartició de medicació dins la residència geriàtrica, gestionant des de les pautes de medicació corresponents a cada resident, fins a un control d’stock. Consta, per tant, d’una aplicació per PC, programada amb Visual Basic i utilitzant com a base de dades Microsoft Access, i d’una aplicació per PDA, programada amb Embedded Visual Basic i utilitzant la mateixa base de dades creada per l’aplicació per PC. L’aplicació de PC proporcionarà als usuaris una gestió ràpida i còmode i, alhora, rapidesa i estalvi de treball si es vol fer un determinat manteniment a través de l’aplicació de PDA. En el manteniment de l’aplicació, però, no s’hi inclou el manteniment dels usuaris tot i haver un control d’aquests. En aquest projecte s’estudia com es desenvolupa una aplicació per PDA i com comparteix una base de dades amb una altra aplicació a través del sistema de sincronització PC↔PDA anomenat ActiveSync.

Attenuated asymmetry of functional connectivity in schizophrenia: a high-resolution EEG study.

The interhemispheric asymmetries that originate from connectivity-related structuring of the cortex are compromised in schizophrenia (SZ). Under the assumption that such abnormalities affect functional connectivity, we analyzed its correlate-EEG synchronization-in SZ patients and matched controls. We applied multivariate synchronization measures based on Laplacian EEG and tuned to various spatial scales. Compared to the controls who had rightward asymmetry at a local level (EEG power), rightward anterior and leftward posterior asymmetries at an intraregional level (1st and 2nd order S-estimator), and rightward global asymmetry (hemispheric S-estimator), SZ patients showed generally attenuated asymmetry, the effect being strongest for intraregional synchronization in the alpha and beta bands. The abnormalities of asymmetry increased with the duration of the disease and correlated with the negative symptoms. We discuss the tentative links between these findings and gross anatomical asymmetries, including the cerebral torque and gyrification pattern, in normal subjects and SZ patients.

Les destins du recours à l'agir : parcours psychodynamique des agirs transgressifs à l'adolescence

Ce travail s'appuie sur une recherche qualitative s'articulant autour d'études de cas. Il vise à interroger les facteurs de l'engagement, du renforcement et du renoncement aux agirs transgressifs à la période de latence d'une part puis au cours du processus adolescent d'autre part. La proposition du terme agir transgressif permettra d'explorer les contours de la problématique des pathologies de l'agir dans les registres psychodynamique, intrapsychique et intersubjectif. Dans ce cadre, les épreuves de la méthode projective (Hand-Test, Rorschach, TAT) constituent, associés à l'entretien, des analyseurs privilégiés, au regard de leur potentialité à mettre à l'épreuve notamment les processus de symbolisation propres à rendre compte de l'investissement de ce type d'agirs (des prises de position narcissiques-identitaires et objectales-identificatoires). La proposition de trois modes de compréhension des agirs transgressifs de la latence à l'adolescence ouvre des perspectives d'appréhension d'un mode d'accompagnement spécifique pour l'accueil de ces adolescents et de travail à des propositions singulières de prises en charge afin de contribuer à l'amélioration des modalités de prise en charge tant éducatives que psychologiques.

Planar homography: accuracy analysis and applications

Projective homography sits at the heart of many problems in image registration. In addition to many methods for estimating the homography parameters (R.I. Hartley and A. Zisserman, 2000), analytical expressions to assess the accuracy of the transformation parameters have been proposed (A. Criminisi et al., 1999). We show that these expressions provide less accurate bounds than those based on the earlier results of Weng et al. (1989). The discrepancy becomes more critical in applications involving the integration of frame-to-frame homographies and their uncertainties, as in the reconstruction of terrain mosaics and the camera trajectory from flyover imagery. We demonstrate these issues through selected examples