Sensitivity of global sulphate aerosol production to changes in oxidant concentrations and climate

The oxidation of SO2 to sulphate aerosol is an important process to include in climate models, and uncertainties caused by ignoring feedback mechanisms affecting the oxidants concerned need to be investigated. Here we present the results of an investigation into the sensitivity of sulphate concentrations to oxidant changes (from changes in climate and in emissions of oxidant precursors) and to changes in climate, in a version of HadGAM1 (the atmosphere-only version of HadGEM1) with an improved sulphur cycle scheme. We find that, when oxidants alone are changed, the global total sulphate burden decreases by approximately 3%, due mainly to a reduction in the OH burden. When climate alone is changed, our results show that the global total sulphate burden increases by approximately 9%; we conclude that this is probably attributable to reduced precipitation in regions of high sulphate abundance. When both oxidants and climate are changed simultaneously, we find that the effects of the two changes combine approximately linearly.

Participatory research approaches in the development of improved management practices in indigenous chickens production systems with smallholder farmers in Kenya

This thesis is concerned with development of improved management practices in indigenous chicken production systems in a research process that includes participatory approaches with smallholder farmers and other stakeholders in Kenya. The research process involved a wide range of activities that included on-station experiments, field surveys, stakeholder consultations in workshops, seminars and visits, and on-farm farmer participatory research to evaluate the effect of some improved management interventions on production performance of indigenous chickens. The participatory research was greatly informed from collective experiences and lessons of the previous activities. The on-station studies focused on hatching, growth and nutritional characteristics of the indigenous chickens. Four research publications from these studies are included in this thesis. Quantitative statistical analyses were applied and they involved use of growth models estimated with non-linear regressions for the growth characteristics, chi-square determinations to investigate differences among different reciprocal crosses of indigenous chickens and general linear models and covariance determination for the nutrition study. The on-station studies brought greater understanding of performance and production characteristics of indigenous chickens and the influence of management practices on these characteristics. The field surveys and stakeholder consultations helped in understanding the overarching issues affecting the productivity of the indigenous chickens systems and their place in the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. These activities created strong networking opportunities with stakeholders from a wide spectrum. The on-farm farmer participatory research involved selection of 200 farmers in five regions followed by training and introduction of interventions on improved management practices which included housing, vaccination, deworming and feed supplementation. Implementation and monitoring was mainly done by individual farmers continuously for close to one and half years. Six quarterly visits to the farms were made by the research team to monitor and provide support for on-going project activities. The data collected has been analysed for 5 consecutive 3-monthly periods. Descriptive and inferential statistics were applied to analyse the data collected involving treatment applications, production characteristics and flock demography characteristics. Out of the 200 farmers initially selected, 173 had records on treatment applications and flock demography characteristics while 127 farmers had records on production characteristics. The demographic analysis with a dissimilarity index of flock size produced 7 distinct farm groups from among the 173 farms. Two of these farm groups were represented in similar numbers in each of the five regions. The research process also involved a number of dissemination and communication strategies that have brought the process and project outcomes into the domain of accessibility by wider readership locally and globally. These include workshops, seminars, field visits and consultations, local and international conferences, electronic conferencing, publications and personal communication via emailing and conventional posting. A number of research and development proposals were also developed based on the knowledge and experiences gained from the research process. The thesis captures the research process activities and outcomes in 8 chapters which include in ascending order – introduction, theoretical concepts underpinning FPR, research methodology and process, on-station research output, FPR descriptive statistical analysis, FPR inferential statistical analysis on production characteristics, FPR demographic analysis and conclusions. Various research approaches both quantitative and qualitative have been applied in the research process indicating the possibilities and importance of combining both systems for greater understanding of issues being studied. In our case, participatory studies of the improved management of indigenous chickens indicates their potential importance as livelihood assets for poor people.

A comprehensive benchmarking system for evaluating global vegetation models

We present a benchmark system for global vegetation models. This system provides a quantitative evaluation of multiple simulated vegetation properties, including primary production; seasonal net ecosystem production; vegetation cover; composition and height; fire regime; and runoff. The benchmarks are derived from remotely sensed gridded datasets and site-based observations. The datasets allow comparisons of annual average conditions and seasonal and inter-annual variability, and they allow the impact of spatial and temporal biases in means and variability to be assessed separately. Specifically designed metrics quantify model performance for each process, and are compared to scores based on the temporal or spatial mean value of the observations and a "random" model produced by bootstrap resampling of the observations. The benchmark system is applied to three models: a simple light-use efficiency and water-balance model (the Simple Diagnostic Biosphere Model: SDBM), the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) and Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). In general, the SDBM performs better than either of the DGVMs. It reproduces independent measurements of net primary production (NPP) but underestimates the amplitude of the observed CO2 seasonal cycle. The two DGVMs show little difference for most benchmarks (including the inter-annual variability in the growth rate and seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2), but LPX represents burnt fraction demonstrably more accurately. Benchmarking also identified several weaknesses common to both DGVMs. The benchmarking system provides a quantitative approach for evaluating how adequately processes are represented in a model, identifying errors and biases, tracking improvements in performance through model development, and discriminating among models. Adoption of such a system would do much to improve confidence in terrestrial model predictions of climate change impacts and feedbacks.

Species distribution models for crop pollination: a modelling framework applied to Great Britain

Insect pollination benefits over three quarters of the world's major crops. There is growing concern that observed declines in pollinators may impact on production and revenues from animal pollinated crops. Knowing the distribution of pollinators is therefore crucial for estimating their availability to pollinate crops; however, in general, we have an incomplete knowledge of where these pollinators occur. We propose a method to predict geographical patterns of pollination service to crops, novel in two elements: the use of pollinator records rather than expert knowledge to predict pollinator occurrence, and the inclusion of the managed pollinator supply. We integrated a maximum entropy species distribution model (SDM) with an existing pollination service model (PSM) to derive the availability of pollinators for crop pollination. We used nation-wide records of wild and managed pollinators (honey bees) as well as agricultural data from Great Britain. We first calibrated the SDM on a representative sample of bee and hoverfly crop pollinator species, evaluating the effects of different settings on model performance and on its capacity to identify the most important predictors. The importance of the different predictors was better resolved by SDM derived from simpler functions, with consistent results for bees and hoverflies. We then used the species distributions from the calibrated model to predict pollination service of wild and managed pollinators, using field beans as a test case. The PSM allowed us to spatially characterize the contribution of wild and managed pollinators and also identify areas potentially vulnerable to low pollination service provision, which can help direct local scale interventions. This approach can be extended to investigate geographical mismatches between crop pollination demand and the availability of pollinators, resulting from environmental change or policy scenarios.

Calibration and evaluation of individual-based models using Approximate Bayesian Computation

This paper investigates the feasibility of using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to calibrate and evaluate complex individual-based models (IBMs). As ABC evolves, various versions are emerging, but here we only explore the most accessible version, rejection-ABC. Rejection-ABC involves running models a large number of times, with parameters drawn randomly from their prior distributions, and then retaining the simulations closest to the observations. Although well-established in some fields, whether ABC will work with ecological IBMs is still uncertain. Rejection-ABC was applied to an existing 14-parameter earthworm energy budget IBM for which the available data consist of body mass growth and cocoon production in four experiments. ABC was able to narrow the posterior distributions of seven parameters, estimating credible intervals for each. ABC’s accepted values produced slightly better fits than literature values do. The accuracy of the analysis was assessed using cross-validation and coverage, currently the best available tests. Of the seven unnarrowed parameters, ABC revealed that three were correlated with other parameters, while the remaining four were found to be not estimable given the data available. It is often desirable to compare models to see whether all component modules are necessary. Here we used ABC model selection to compare the full model with a simplified version which removed the earthworm’s movement and much of the energy budget. We are able to show that inclusion of the energy budget is necessary for a good fit to the data. We show how our methodology can inform future modelling cycles, and briefly discuss how more advanced versions of ABC may be applicable to IBMs. We conclude that ABC has the potential to represent uncertainty in model structure, parameters and predictions, and to embed the often complex process of optimizing an IBM’s structure and parameters within an established statistical framework, thereby making the process more transparent and objective.

Decimal growth stages for precision wheat production in changing environments?

The utility of the decimal growth stage (DGS) scoring system for cereals is reviewed. The DGS is the most widely used scale in academic and commercial applications because of its comprehensive coverage of cereal developmental stages, the ease of use and definition provided and adoption by official agencies. The DGS has demonstrable and established value in helping to optimise the timing of agronomic inputs, particularly with regard to plant growth regulators, herbicides, fungicides and soluble nitrogen fertilisers. In addition, the DGS is used to help parameterise crop models, and also in understanding the response and adaptation of crops to the environment. The value of the DGS for increasing precision relies on it indicating, to some degree, the various stages in the development of the stem apex and spike. Coincidence of specific growth stage scores with the transition of the apical meristem from a vegetative to a reproductive state, and also with the period of meiosis, is unreliable. Nonetheless, in pot experiments it is shown that the broad period of booting (DGS 41–49) appears adequate for covering the duration when the vulnerability of meiosis to drought and heat stress is exposed. Similarly, the duration of anthesis (61–69) is particularly susceptible to abiotic stresses: initially from a fertility perspective, but increasingly from a mean grain weight perspective as flowering progresses to DGS 69 and then milk development. These associations with DGS can have value at the crop level of organisation: for interpreting environmental effects, and in crop modelling. However, genetic, biochemical and physiological analysis to develop greater understanding of stress acclimation during the vegetative state, and tolerance at meiosis, does require more precision than DGS can provide. Similarly, individual floret analysis is needed to further understand the genetic basis of stress tolerance during anthesis.

Structural features of condensed tannins affect in vitro ruminal methane production and fermentation characteristics

An in vitro study was conducted to investigate the effects of condensed tannins (CT) structural properties, i.e. average polymer size (or mean degree of polymerization); percentage of cis flavan-3-ols and percentage of prodelphinidins in CT extracts on methane production (CH4) and fermentation characteristics. CT were extracted from eight plants in order to obtain different CT types: black currant leaves, goat willow leaves, goat willow twigs, pine bark, red currant leaves, sainfoin plants, weeping willow catkins and white clover flowers. They were analysed for CT content and CT composition by thiolytic degradation, followed by HPLC analysis. Grass silage was used as a control substrate. Condensed tannins were added to the substrate at a concentration of 40 g/kg, with or without polyethylene glycol (+ or −PEG 6000 treatment) to inactivate tannins, and then incubated for 72 h in mixed buffered rumen fluid from three different lactating dairy cows per run. Total cumulative gas production (GP) was measured by an automated gas production system. During the incubation, 12 gas samples (10 μl) were collected from each bottle headspace at 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 12, 24, 30, 36, 48, 56 and 72 h of incubation and analyzed for CH4. A modified Michaelis–Menten model was fitted to the CH4 concentration patterns and model estimates were used to calculate total cumulative CH4 production (GPCH4). Total cumulative gas production and GPCH4 curves were fitted using biphasic and monophasic modified Michaelis-Menten models, respectively. Addition of PEG increased GP, GPCH4, and CH4 concentration compared to the −PEG treatment. All CT types reduced GPCH4 and CH4 concentration. All CT increased the half time of GP and GPCH4. Moreover, all CT decreased the maximum rate of fermentation for GPCH4 and rate of substrate degradation. The correlation between CT structure and GPCH4 and fermentation characteristics showed that the proportion of prodelphinidins within CT had the largest effect on fermentation characteristics, followed by average 27 polymer size and percentage of cis-flavan-3-ols.

Using simulation models to investigate the cumulative effects of sowing rate, sowing date and cultivar choice on weed competition

With the increasing pressure on crop production from the evolution of herbicide resistance, farmers are increasingly adopting Integrated Weed Management (IWM) strategies to augment their weed control. These include measures to increase the competitiveness of the crop canopy such as increased sowing rate and the use of more competitive cultivars. While there are data on the relative impact of these non-chemical weed control methods assessed in isolation, there is uncertainty about their combined contribution, which may be hindering their adoption. In this article, the INTERCOM simulation model of crop / weed competition was used to examine the combined impact of crop density, sowing date and cultivar choice on the outcomes of competition between wheat (Triticum aestivum) and Alopecurus myosuroides. Alopecurus myosuroides is a problematic weed of cereal crops in North-Western Europe and the primary target for IWM in the UK because it has evolved resistance to a range of herbicides. The model was parameterised for two cultivars with contrasting competitive ability, and simulations run across 10 years at different crop densities and two sowing dates. The results suggest that sowing date, sowing density and cultivar choice largely work in a complementary fashion, allowing enhanced competitive ability against weeds when used in combination. However, the relative benefit of choosing a more competitive cultivar decreases at later sowing dates and higher crop densities. Modelling approaches could be further employed to examine the effectiveness of IWM, reducing the need for more expensive and cumbersome long-term in situ experimentation.

Assessment of inbreeding depression in a Guzerat dairy herd: Effects of individual increase in inbreeding coefficients on production and reproduction

Influences of inbreeding on daily milk yield (DMY), age at first calving (AFC), and calving intervals (CI) were determined on a highly inbred zebu dairy subpopulation of the Guzerat breed. Variance components were estimated using animal models in single-trait analyses. Two approaches were employed to estimate inbreeding depression: using individual increase in inbreeding coefficients or using inbreeding coefficients as possible covariates included in the statistical models. The pedigree file included 9,915 animals, of which 9,055 were inbred, with an average inbreeding coefficient of 15.2%. The maximum inbreeding coefficient observed was 49.45%, and the average inbreeding for the females still in the herd during the analysis was 26.42%. Heritability estimates were 0.27 for DMY and 0.38 for AFC. The genetic variance ratio estimated with the random regression model for CI ranged around 0.10. Increased inbreeding caused poorer performance in DMY, AFC, and CI. However, some of the cows with the highest milk yield were among the highly inbred animals in this subpopulation. Individual increase in inbreeding used as a covariate in the statistical models accounted for inbreeding depression while avoiding overestimation that may result when fitting inbreeding coefficients.

Thermal photon production in Au plus Au collisions: Viscous corrections in two different hydrodynamic formalisms

We calculate the spectra of produced thermal photons in Au + Au collisions taking into account the nonequilibrium contribution to photon production due to finite shear viscosity. The evolution of the fireball is modeled by second-order as well as by divergence-type 2 + 1 dissipative hydrodynamics, both with an ideal equation of state and with one based on Lattice QCD that includes an analytical crossover. The spectrum calculated in the divergence-type theory is considerably enhanced with respect to the one calculated in the second-order theory, the difference being entirely due to differences in the viscous corrections to photon production. Our results show that the differences in hydrodynamic formalisms are an important source of uncertainty in the extraction of the value of eta/s from measured photon spectra. The uncertainty in the value of eta/s associated with different hydrodynamic models used to compute thermal photon spectra is larger than the one occurring in matching hadron elliptic flow to RHIC data. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Diapocynin versus apocynin as pretranscriptional inhibitors of NADPH oxidase and cytokine production by peripheral blood mononuclear cells

Apocynin has been extensively used as an inhibitor of NADPH oxidase (NOX) in many experimental models using phagocytic and non-phagocytic cells. Currently, there is some controversy about the efficacy of apocynin in non-phagocytic cells, but in phagocytes the reported results are consistent, which could be due to the presence of myeloperoxidase in these cells. This enzyme has been proposed as responsible for activating apocynin by generating its dimer, diapocynin, which is supposed to be the active compound that prevents NADPH oxidase complex assembly and activation. Here, we synthesized diapocynin and studied its effect on inhibition of gp91(phox) RNA expression. We found that diapocynin strongly inhibited the expression of gp91(phox)mRNA in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC). Only at a higher concentration, apocynin was able to exert the same effect. We also compared the apocynin and diapocynin efficacy as inhibitors of tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) and interleukin-10 (IL-10) production in response to lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-activated PBMC. Although apocynin did inhibit TNF-alpha production, diapocynin had a much more pronounced effect, on both TNF-alpha and IL-10 production. In conclusion, these findings suggest that the bioconversion of apocynin to diapocynin is an important issue not limited to enzymatic activity inhibition, but also for other biological effects as gp91(phox) mRNA expression and cytokine production. Hence, as diapocynin can be easily prepared from apocynin, a one-step synthesis, we recommend its use in studies where the biological effects of apocynin are searched. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Crop rotation scheduling with adjacency constraints

In this article we propose a 0-1 optimization model to determine a crop rotation schedule for each plot in a cropping area. The rotations have the same duration in all the plots and the crops are selected to maximize plot occupation. The crops may have different production times and planting dates. The problem includes planting constraints for adjacent plots and also for sequences of crops in the rotations. Moreover, cultivating crops for green manuring and fallow periods are scheduled into each plot. As the model has, in general, a great number of constraints and variables, we propose a heuristics based on column generation. To evaluate the performance of the model and the method, computational experiments using real-world data were performed. The solutions obtained indicate that the method generates good results.

GRASP heuristic with path-relinking for the multi-plant capacitated lot sizing problem

This paper addresses the independent multi-plant, multi-period, and multi-item capacitated lot sizing problem where transfers between the plants are allowed. This is an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem and few solution methods have been proposed to solve it. We develop a GRASP (Greedy Randomized Adaptive Search Procedure) heuristic as well as a path-relinking intensification procedure to find cost-effective solutions for this problem. In addition, the proposed heuristics is used to solve some instances of the capacitated lot sizing problem with parallel machines. The results of the computational tests show that the proposed heuristics outperform other heuristics previously described in the literature. The results are confirmed by statistical tests. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An approach for solving the lot-sizing problem of a market-driven foundry

Foundries can be found all over Brazil and they are very important to its economy. In 2008, a mixed integer-programming model for small market-driven foundries was published, attempting to minimize delivery delays. We undertook a study of that model. Here, we present a new approach based on the decomposition of the problem into two sub-problems: production planning of alloys and production planning of items. Both sub-problems are solved using a Lagrangian heuristic based on transferences. An important aspect of the proposed heuristic is its ability to take into account a secondary practice objective solution: the furnace waste. Computational tests show that the approach proposed here is able to generate good quality solutions that outperform prior results. Journal of the Operational Research Society (2010) 61, 108-114. doi:10.1057/jors.2008.151

A linear optimization approach to the combined production planning model

Two fundamental processes usually arise in the production planning of many industries. The first one consists of deciding how many final products of each type have to be produced in each period of a planning horizon, the well-known lot sizing problem. The other process consists of cutting raw materials in stock in order to produce smaller parts used in the assembly of final products, the well-studied cutting stock problem. In this paper the decision variables of these two problems are dependent of each other in order to obtain a global optimum solution. Setups that are typically present in lot sizing problems are relaxed together with integer frequencies of cutting patterns in the cutting problem. Therefore, a large scale linear optimizations problem arises, which is exactly solved by a column generated technique. It is worth noting that this new combined problem still takes the trade-off between storage costs (for final products and the parts) and trim losses (in the cutting process). We present some sets of computational tests, analyzed over three different scenarios. These results show that, by combining the problems and using an exact method, it is possible to obtain significant gains when compared to the usual industrial practice, which solve them in sequence. (C) 2010 The Franklin Institute. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.