Modelling the human accommodation system using finite element analysis

The human accommodation system has been extensively examined for over a century, with a particular focus on trying to understand the mechanisms that lead to the loss of accommodative ability with age (Presbyopia). The accommodative process, along with the potential causes of presbyopia, are disputed; hindering efforts to develop methods of restoring accommodation in the presbyopic eye. One method that can be used to provide insight into this complex area is Finite Element Analysis (FEA). The effectiveness of FEA in modelling the accommodative process has been illustrated by a number of accommodative FEA models developed to date. However, there have been limitations to these previous models; principally due to the variation in data on the geometry of the accommodative components, combined with sparse measurements of their material properties. Despite advances in available data, continued oversimplification has occurred in the modelling of the crystalline lens structure and the zonular fibres that surround the lens. A new accommodation model was proposed by the author that aims to eliminate these limitations. A novel representation of the zonular structure was developed, combined with updated lens and capsule modelling methods. The model has been designed to be adaptable so that a range of different age accommodation systems can be modelled, allowing the age related changes that occur to be simulated. The new modelling methods were validated by comparing the changes induced within the model to available in vivo data, leading to the definition of three different age models. These were used in an extended sensitivity study on age related changes, where individual parameters were altered to investigate their effect on the accommodative process. The material properties were found to have the largest impact on the decline in accommodative ability, in particular compared to changes in ciliary body movement or zonular structure. Novel data on the importance of the capsule stiffness and thickness was also established. The new model detailed within this thesis provides further insight into the accommodation mechanism, as well as a foundation for future, more detailed investigations into accommodation, presbyopia and accommodative restoration techniques.

A modelling and simulation environment for self-aware and self-expressive systems

Self-awareness and self-expression are promising architectural concepts for embedded systems to be equipped with to match them with dedicated application scenarios and constraints in the avionic and space-flight industry. Typically, these systems operate in largely undefined environments and are not reachable after deployment for a long time or even never ever again. This paper introduces a reference architecture as well as a novel modelling and simulation environment for self-aware and self-expressive systems with transaction level modelling, simulation and detailed modelling capabilities for hardware aspects, precise process chronology execution as well as fine timing resolutions. Furthermore, industrial relevant system sizes with several self-aware and self-expressive nodes can be handled by the modelling and simulation environment.

Conceptual Building Information Modelling Framework for Whole‐house Refurbishment based on LCC and LCA

The UK government aims at achieving 80% CO2 emission reduction by 2050 which requires collective efforts across all the UK industry sectors. In particular, the housing sector has a large potential to contribute to achieving the aim because the housing sector alone accounts for 27% of the total UK CO2 emission, and furthermore, 87% of the housing which is responsible for current 27% CO2 emission will still stand in 2050. Therefore, it is essential to improve energy efficiency of existing housing stock built with low energy efficiency standard. In order for this, a whole‐house needs to be refurbished in a sustainable way by considering the life time financial and environmental impacts of a refurbished house. However, the current refurbishment process seems to be challenging to generate a financially and environmentally affordable refurbishment solution due to the highly fragmented nature of refurbishment practice and a lack of knowledge and skills about whole‐house refurbishment in the construction industry. In order to generate an affordable refurbishment solution, diverse information regarding costs and environmental impacts of refurbishment measures and materials should be collected and integrated in right sequences throughout the refurbishment project life cycle among key project stakeholders. Consequently, various researchers increasingly study a way of utilizing Building Information Modelling (BIM) to tackle current problems in the construction industry because BIM can support construction professionals to manage construction projects in a collaborative manner by integrating diverse information, and to determine the best refurbishment solution among various alternatives by calculating the life cycle costs and lifetime CO2 performance of a refurbishment solution. Despite the capability of BIM, the BIM adoption rate is low with 25% in the housing sector and it has been rarely studied about a way of using BIM for housing refurbishment projects. Therefore, this research aims to develop a BIM framework to formulate a financially and environmentally affordable whole‐house refurbishment solution based on the Life Cycle Costing (LCC) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methods simultaneously. In order to achieve the aim, a BIM feasibility study was conducted as a pilot study to examine whether BIM is suitable for housing refurbishment, and a BIM framework was developed based on the grounded theory because there was no precedent research. After the development of a BIM framework, this framework was examined by a hypothetical case study using BIM input data collected from questionnaire survey regarding homeowners’ preferences for housing refurbishment. Finally, validation of the BIM framework was conducted among academics and professionals by providing the BIM framework and a formulated refurbishment solution based on the LCC and LCA studies through the framework. As a result, BIM was identified as suitable for housing refurbishment as a management tool, and it is timely for developing the BIM framework. The BIM framework with seven project stages was developed to formulate an affordable refurbishment solution. Through the case study, the Building Regulation is identified as the most affordable energy efficiency standard which renders the best LCC and LCA results when it is applied for whole‐house refurbishment solution. In addition, the Fabric Energy Efficiency Standard (FEES) is recommended when customers are willing to adopt high energy standard, and the maximum 60% of CO2 emissions can be reduced through whole‐house fabric refurbishment with the FEES. Furthermore, limitations and challenges to fully utilize BIM framework for housing refurbishment were revealed such as a lack of BIM objects with proper cost and environmental information, limited interoperability between different BIM software and limited information of LCC and LCA datasets in BIM system. Finally, the BIM framework was validated as suitable for housing refurbishment projects, and reviewers commented that the framework can be more practical if a specific BIM library for housing refurbishment with proper LCC and LCA datasets is developed. This research is expected to provide a systematic way of formulating a refurbishment solution using BIM, and to become a basis for further research on BIM for the housing sector to resolve the current limitations and challenges. Future research should enhance the BIM framework by developing more detailed process map and develop BIM objects with proper LCC and LCA Information.

Models of Alternating Renewal Process at Discrete Time

We study a class of models used with success in the modelling of climatological sequences. These models are based on the notion of renewal. At first, we examine the probabilistic aspects of these models to afterwards study the estimation of their parameters and their asymptotical properties, in particular the consistence and the normality. We will discuss for applications, two particular classes of alternating renewal processes at discrete time. The first class is defined by laws of sojourn time that are translated negative binomial laws and the second class, suggested by Green is deduced from alternating renewal process in continuous time with sojourn time laws which are exponential laws with parameters α^0 and α^1 respectively.

Automated Problem Domain Cognition Process in Information Systems Design

An automated cognitive approach for the design of Information Systems is presented. It is supposed to be used at the very beginning of the design process, between the stages of requirements determination and analysis, including the stage of analysis. In the context of the approach used either UML or ERD notations may be used for model representation. The approach provides the opportunity of using natural language text documents as a source of knowledge for automated problem domain model generation. It also simplifies the process of modelling by assisting the human user during the whole period of working upon the model (using UML or ERD notations).

Modeling of Effective Process of Network Maintaining Based on Statistical Data

This paper is dedicated to modelling of network maintaining based on live example – maintaining ATM banking network, where any problems are mean money loss. A full analysis is made in order to estimate valuable and not-valuable parameters based on complex analysis of available data. Correlation analysis helps to estimate provided data and to produce a complex solution of increasing network maintaining effectiveness.

An Approach to Wealth Modelling

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60G48, 60G20, 60G15, 60G17. JEL Classification: G10

Modelling in the evaluation of a manufacturing strategy

This thesis describes research that has developed the principles of a modelling tool for the analytical evaluation of a manufacturing strategy. The appropriate process of manufacturing strategy formulation is based on mental synthesis with formal planning processes supporting this role. Inherent to such processes is a stage where the effects of alternative strategies on the performance of a manufacturing system must be evaluated so that a choice of preferred strategy can be made. Invariably this evaluation is carried out by practitioners applying mechanisms of judgement, bargaining and analysis. Ibis thesis makes a significant and original contribution to the provision of analytical support for practitioners in this role. The research programme commences by defining the requirements of analytical strategy evaluation from the perspective of practitioners. A broad taxonomy of models has been used to identify a set of potentially suitable techniques for the strategy evaluation task. Then, where possible, unsuitable modelling techniques have been identified on the basis of evidence in the literature and discarded from this set. The remaining modelling techniques have been critically appraised by testing representative contemporary modelling tools in an industrially based experimentation programme. The results show that individual modelling techniques exhibit various limitations in the strategy evaluation role, though some combinations do appear to provide the necessary functionality. On the basis of this comprehensive and in-depth knowledge a modelling tool ' has been specifically designed for this task. Further experimental testing has then been conducted to verify the principles of this modelling tool. Ibis research has bridged the fields of manufacturing strategy formulation and manufacturing systems modelling and makes two contributions to knowledge. Firstly, a comprehensive and in-depth platform of knowledge has been established about modelling techniques in manufacturing strategy evaluation. Secondly, the principles of a tool that supports this role have been formed and verified.

Modelling in the evaluation of a manufacturing strategy

This thesis describes research that has developed the principles of a modelling tool for the analytical evaluation of a manufacturing strategy. The appropriate process of manufacturing strategy formulation is based on mental synthesis with formal planning processes supporting this role. Inherent to such processes is a stage where the effects of alternative strategies on the performance of a manufacturing system must be evaluated so that a choice of preferred strategy can be made. Invariably this evaluation is carried out by practitioners applying mechanisms of judgement, bargaining and analysis. Ibis thesis makes a significant and original contribution to the provision of analytical support for practitioners in this role. The research programme commences by defining the requirements of analytical strategy evaluation from the perspective of practitioners. A broad taxonomy of models has been used to identify a set of potentially suitable techniques for the strategy evaluation task. Then, where possible, unsuitable modelling techniques have been identified on the basis of evidence in the literature and discarded from this set. The remaining modelling techniques have been critically appraised by testing representative contemporary modelling tools in an industrially based experimentation programme. The results show that individual modelling techniques exhibit various limitations in the strategy evaluation role, though some combinations do appear to provide the necessary functionality. On the basis of this comprehensive and in-depth knowledge a modelling tool ' has been specifically designed for this task. Further experimental testing has then been conducted to verify the principles of this modelling tool. Ibis research has bridged the fields of manufacturing strategy formulation and manufacturing systems modelling and makes two contributions to knowledge. Firstly, a comprehensive and in-depth platform of knowledge has been established about modelling techniques in manufacturing strategy evaluation. Secondly, the principles of a tool that supports this role have been formed and verified.

A simulation conceptual modelling procedure for SCM applications

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to outline a seven-phase simulation conceptual modelling procedure that incorporates existing practice and embeds a process reference model (i.e. SCOR). Design/methodology/approach – An extensive review of the simulation and SCM literature identifies a set of requirements for a domain-specific conceptual modelling procedure. The associated design issues for each requirement are discussed and the utility of SCOR in the process of conceptual modelling is demonstrated using two development cases. Ten key concepts are synthesised and aligned to a general process for conceptual modelling. Further work is outlined to detail, refine and test the procedure with different process reference models in different industrial contexts. Findings - Simulation conceptual modelling is often regarded as the most important yet least understood aspect of a simulation project (Robinson, 2008a). Even today, there has been little research development into guidelines to aid in the creation of a conceptual model. Design issues are discussed for building an ‘effective’ conceptual model and the domain-specific requirements for modelling supply chains are addressed. The ten key concepts are incorporated to aid in describing the supply chain problem (i.e. components and relationships that need to be included in the model), model content (i.e. rules for determining the simplest model boundary and level of detail to implement the model) and model validation. Originality/value – Paper addresses Robinson (2008a) call for research in defining and developing new approaches for conceptual modelling and Manuj et al., (2009) discussion on improving the rigour of simulation studies in SCM. It is expected that more detailed guidelines will yield benefits to both expert (i.e. avert typical modelling failures) and novice modellers (i.e. guided practice; less reliance on hopeful intuition)

Assessing the queuing process using data envelopment analysis:an application in health centres

Queuing is one of the very important criteria for assessing the performance and efficiency of any service industry, including healthcare. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is one of the most widely-used techniques for performance measurement in healthcare. However, no queue management application has been reported in the health-related DEA literature. Most of the studies regarding patient flow systems had the objective of improving an already existing Appointment System. The current study presents a novel application of DEA for assessing the queuing process at an Outpatients’ department of a large public hospital in a developing country where appointment systems do not exist. The main aim of the current study is to demonstrate the usefulness of DEA modelling in the evaluation of a queue system. The patient flow pathway considered for this study consists of two stages; consultation with a doctor and pharmacy. The DEA results indicated that waiting times and other related queuing variables included need considerable minimisation at both stages.

OntoPedigree:modelling pedigrees for traceability in supply chains

The sharing of product and process information plays a central role in coordinating supply chains operations and is a key driver for their success. "Linked pedigrees" - linked datasets, that encapsulate event based traceability information of artifacts as they move along the supply chain, provide a scalable mechanism to record and facilitate the sharing of track and trace knowledge among supply chain partners. In this paper we present "OntoPedigree" a content ontology design pattern for the representation of linked pedigrees, that can be specialised and extended to define domain specific traceability ontologies. Events captured within the pedigrees are specified using EPCIS - a GS1 standard for the specification of traceability information within and across enterprises, while certification information is described using PROV - a vocabulary for modelling provenance of resources. We exemplify the utility of OntoPedigree in linked pedigrees generated for supply chains within the perishable goods and pharmaceuticals sectors.

Improved data visualisation through multiple dissimilarity modelling

Popular dimension reduction and visualisation algorithms rely on the assumption that input dissimilarities are typically Euclidean, for instance Metric Multidimensional Scaling, t-distributed Stochastic Neighbour Embedding and the Gaussian Process Latent Variable Model. It is well known that this assumption does not hold for most datasets and often high-dimensional data sits upon a manifold of unknown global geometry. We present a method for improving the manifold charting process, coupled with Elastic MDS, such that we no longer assume that the manifold is Euclidean, or of any particular structure. We draw on the benefits of different dissimilarity measures allowing for the relative responsibilities, under a linear combination, to drive the visualisation process.

Analysis of operational risk of banks – catastrophe modelling

Nowadays financial institutions due to regulation and internal motivations care more intensively on their risks. Besides previously dominating market and credit risk new trend is to handle operational risk systematically. Operational risk is the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems or from external events. First we show the basic features of operational risk and its modelling and regulatory approaches, and after we will analyse operational risk in an own developed simulation model framework. Our approach is based on the analysis of latent risk process instead of manifest risk process, which widely popular in risk literature. In our model the latent risk process is a stochastic risk process, so called Ornstein- Uhlenbeck process, which is a mean reversion process. In the model framework we define catastrophe as breach of a critical barrier by the process. We analyse the distributions of catastrophe frequency, severity and first time to hit, not only for single process, but for dual process as well. Based on our first results we could not falsify the Poisson feature of frequency, and long tail feature of severity. Distribution of “first time to hit” requires more sophisticated analysis. At the end of paper we examine advantages of simulation based forecasting, and finally we concluding with the possible, further research directions to be done in the future.

A villamos erőművek szén-dioxid-kibocsátásának modellezése reálopciók segítségével = Modelling of the carbon dioxide emissions of a power plant, using real options

A szerző egy, a szennyezőanyag-kibocsátás európai kereskedelmi rendszerében megfelelésre kötelezett gázturbinás erőmű szén-dioxid-kibocsátását modellezi négy termékre (völgy- és csúcsidőszaki áramár, gázár, kibocsátási kvóta) vonatkozó reálopciós modell segítségével. A profitmaximalizáló erőmű csak abban az esetben termel és szennyez, ha a megtermelt áramon realizálható fedezete pozitív. A jövőbeli időszak összesített szén-dioxid-kibocsátása megfeleltethető európai típusú bináris különbözetopciók összegének. A modell keretein belül a szén-dioxid-kibocsátás várható értékét és sűrűségfüggvényét becsülhetjük, az utóbbi segítségével a szén-dioxid-kibocsátási pozíció kockáztatott értékét határozhatjuk meg, amely az erőmű számára előírt megfelelési kötelezettség teljesítésének adott konfidenciaszint melletti költségét jelenti. A sztochasztikus modellben az alaptermékek geometriai Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-folyamatot követnek. Ezt illesztette a szerző a német energiatőzsdéről származó publikus piaci adatokra. A szimulációs modellre támaszkodva megvizsgálta, hogy a különböző technológiai és piaci tényezők ceteris paribus megváltozása milyen hatással van a megfelelés költségére, a kockáztatott értékére. ______ The carbon-dioxide emissions of an EU Emissions Trading System participant, gas-fuelled power generator are modelled by using real options for four underlying instruments (peak and off-peak electricity, gas, emission quota). This profit-maximizing power plant operates and emits pollution only if its profit (spread) on energy produced is positive. The future emissions can be estimated by a sum of European binary-spread options. Based on the real-option model, the expected value of emissions and its probability-density function can be deducted. Also calculable is the Value at Risk of emission quota position, which gives the cost of compliance at a given confidence level. To model the prices of the four underlying instruments, the geometric Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is supposed and matched to public available price data from EEX. Based on the simulation model, the effects of various technological and market factors are analysed for the emissions level and the cost of compliance.