Trends in diabetes incidence from 1992 to 2015 and projections for 2024: A Portuguese General Practitioner’s Network study

Background: Diabetes is known as a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Portugal is known as the European country with the highest prevalence of this disease. While diabetes prevalence data is updated annually in Portugal, the General Practitioner’s (GP) Sentinel Network represents the only data source on diabetes incidence. This study describes the trends in Diabetes incidence, between 1992 and 2015, and estimate projections for the future incidence rates in Portugal until 2024. Methods: An ecological time-series study was conducted using data from GP Sentinel Network between 1992 and 2015. Family doctors reported all new cases of Diabetes in their patients’ lists. Annual trends were estimated through Poisson regression models as well as the future incidence rates (until 2024), sex and age group stratified. Incidence rate projections were adjusted to the distribution of the resident Portuguese population given Statistics Portugal projections. Results: The average increase in Diabetes incidence rate was in total 4.29% (CI95% 3.80–4.80) per year under study. Until 1998–2000, the annual incidence rate was higher in women, and from 1998–2000 to 2013–2015 turn out to be higher in men. The incidence rate projected for 2022–2024 was 972.77/105 inhabitants in total, and 846.74/105 and 1114.42/105, respectively, in women and men. Conclusions: This is the first study in Portugal to estimate diabetes incidence rate projections. The disturbing reported projections seem realistic if things continue as in the past. Actually, effective public health policies will need to be undertaken to minimize this alarming future scenario.

A probabilistic assessment of calcium carbonate export and dissolution in the modern ocean

The marine cycle of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) is an important element of the carbon cycle and co-governs the distribution of carbon and alkalinity within the ocean. However, CaCO3 export fluxes and mechanisms governing CaCO3 dissolution are highly uncertain. We present an observationally constrained, probabilistic assessment of the global and regional CaCO3 budgets. Parameters governing pelagic CaCO3 export fluxes and dissolution rates are sampled using a Monte Carlo scheme to construct a 1000-member ensemble with the Bern3D ocean model. Ensemble results are constrained by comparing simulated and observation-based fields of excess dissolved calcium carbonate (TA*). The minerals calcite and aragonite are modelled explicitly and ocean–sediment fluxes are considered. For local dissolution rates, either a strong or a weak dependency on CaCO3 saturation is assumed. In addition, there is the option to have saturation-independent dissolution above the saturation horizon. The median (and 68 % confidence interval) of the constrained model ensemble for global biogenic CaCO3 export is 0.90 (0.72–1.05) Gt C yr−1, that is within the lower half of previously published estimates (0.4–1.8 Gt C yr−1). The spatial pattern of CaCO3 export is broadly consistent with earlier assessments. Export is large in the Southern Ocean, the tropical Indo–Pacific, the northern Pacific and relatively small in the Atlantic. The constrained results are robust across a range of diapycnal mixing coefficients and, thus, ocean circulation strengths. Modelled ocean circulation and transport timescales for the different set-ups were further evaluated with CFC11 and radiocarbon observations. Parameters and mechanisms governing dissolution are hardly constrained by either the TA* data or the current compilation of CaCO3 flux measurements such that model realisations with and without saturation-dependent dissolution achieve skill. We suggest applying saturation-independent dissolution rates in Earth system models to minimise computational costs.

Estimates and projections of Black and Hispanic personnel in selected health professions, 1980-2000.

Item 507-J-1

Economic projections to 1990.

Mode of access: Internet.

Occupational employment projections for labor market areas : an analysis of alternative approaches.

Item 746-H

Employment projections for 1995 /

"Consists of four articles from the November 1983 issue of the Monthly labor review."--Pref.

Projections of national health expenditures.

"October 1992"--Cover.

Import passenger automobile weight projections 1979-1986: Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Volvo, BL Ltd. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

An analysis of mopeds as a potential safety problem in the United States. Volume II: data analysis and usage and accident projections. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Calendar year projections of individual returns by major processing categories /

Description based on: 1992, fall update.

Domestic passenger automobile weight projections, 1979-1986. GM, Ford, Chrysler, AMC. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Population of Peru; estimates and projections: 1962-2002,

"Prepared under a participating agency service agreement with the Office of Population, Agency for International Development."

Trends in federal transportation financial activity, fiscal years 1970-1979 : report number 3 : projections of federal transportation obligations, 1980-1989 (based on 1970-1979 historical patterns) /

"DOT-P-10-80-22"--Cover.