Essays on oil price fluctuations and macroeconomic activity

Dans cette thèse, je me suis intéressé aux effets des fluctuations du prix de pétrole sur l'activité macroéconomique selon la cause sous-jacente ces fluctuations. Les modèles économiques utilisés dans cette thèse sont principalement les modèles d'équilibre général dynamique stochastique (de l'anglais Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, DSGE) et les modèles Vecteurs Autorégressifs, VAR. Plusieurs études ont examiné les effets des fluctuations du prix de pétrole sur les principaux variables macroéconomiques, mais très peu d'entre elles ont fait spécifiquement le lien entre les effets des fluctuations du prix du pétrole et la l'origine de ces fluctuations. Pourtant, il est largement admis dans les études plus récentes que les augmentations du prix du pétrole peuvent avoir des effets très différents en fonction de la cause sous-jacente de cette augmentation. Ma thèse, structurée en trois chapitres, porte une attention particulière aux sources de fluctuations du prix de pétrole et leurs impacts sur l'activité macroéconomique en général, et en particulier sur l'économie du Canada. Le premier chapitre examine comment les chocs d'offre de pétrole, de demande agrégée, et de demande de précaution de pétrole affectent l'économie du Canada, dans un Modèle d'équilibre Général Dynamique Stochastique estimé. L'estimation est réalisée par la méthode Bayésienne, en utilisant des données trimestrielles canadiennes sur la période 1983Q1 à 2010Q4. Les résultats montrent que les effets dynamiques des fluctuations du prix du pétrole sur les principaux agrégats macro-économiques canadiens varient en fonction de leurs sources. En particulier, une augmentation de 10% du prix réel du pétrole causée par des chocs positifs sur la demande globale étrangère a un effet positif significatif de l'ordre de 0,4% sur le PIB réel du Canada au moment de l'impact et l'effet reste positif sur tous les horizons. En revanche, une augmentation du prix réel du pétrole causée par des chocs négatifs sur l'offre de pétrole ou par des chocs positifs de la demande de pétrole de précaution a un effet négligeable sur le PIB réel du Canada au moment de l'impact, mais provoque une baisse légèrement significative après l'impact. En outre, parmi les chocs pétroliers identifiés, les chocs sur la demande globale étrangère ont été relativement plus important pour expliquer la fluctuation des principaux agrégats macroéconomiques du Canada au cours de la période d'estimation. Le deuxième chapitre utilise un modèle Structurel VAR en Panel pour examiner les liens entre les chocs de demande et d'offre de pétrole et les ajustements de la demande de travail et des salaires dans les industries manufacturières au Canada. Le modèle est estimé sur des données annuelles désagrégées au niveau industriel sur la période de 1975 à 2008. Les principaux résultats suggèrent qu'un choc positif de demande globale a un effet positif sur la demande de travail et les salaires, à court terme et à long terme. Un choc négatif sur l'offre de pétrole a un effet négatif relativement faible au moment de l'impact, mais l'effet devient positif après la première année. En revanche, un choc positif sur la demande précaution de pétrole a un impact négatif à tous les horizons. Les estimations industrie-par-industrie confirment les précédents résultats en panel. En outre, le papier examine comment les effets des différents chocs pétroliers sur la demande travail et les salaires varient en fonction du degré d'exposition commerciale et de l'intensité en énergie dans la production. Il ressort que les industries fortement exposées au commerce international et les industries fortement intensives en énergie sont plus vulnérables aux fluctuations du prix du pétrole causées par des chocs d'offre de pétrole ou des chocs de demande globale. Le dernier chapitre examine les implications en terme de bien-être social de l'introduction des inventaires en pétrole sur le marché mondial à l'aide d'un modèle DSGE de trois pays dont deux pays importateurs de pétrole et un pays exportateur de pétrole. Les gains de bien-être sont mesurés par la variation compensatoire de la consommation sous deux règles de politique monétaire. Les principaux résultats montrent que l'introduction des inventaires en pétrole a des effets négatifs sur le bien-être des consommateurs dans chacun des deux pays importateurs de pétrole, alors qu'il a des effets positifs sur le bien-être des consommateurs dans le pays exportateur de pétrole, quelle que soit la règle de politique monétaire. Par ailleurs, l'inclusion de la dépréciation du taux de change dans les règles de politique monétaire permet de réduire les coûts sociaux pour les pays importateurs de pétrole. Enfin, l'ampleur des effets de bien-être dépend du niveau d'inventaire en pétrole à l'état stationnaire et est principalement expliquée par les chocs sur les inventaires en pétrole.

L'algorithme de Branch and Price and Cut pour le problème de conception de réseaux avec coûts fixes et sans capacité

Le problème de conception de réseaux est un problème qui a été beaucoup étudié dans le domaine de la recherche opérationnelle pour ses caractéristiques, et ses applications dans des nombreux domaines tels que le transport, les communications, et la logistique. Nous nous intéressons en particulier dans ce mémoire à résoudre le problème de conception de réseaux avec coûts fixes et sans capacité, en satisfaisant les demandes de tous les produits tout en minimisant la somme des coûts de transport de ces produits et des coûts fixes de conception du réseau. Ce problème se modélise généralement sous la forme d’un programme linéaire en nombres entiers incluant des variables continues. Pour le résoudre, nous avons appliqué la méthode exacte de Branch-and-Bound basée sur une relaxation linéaire du problème avec un critère d’arrêt, tout en exploitant les méthodes de génération de colonnes et de génération de coupes. Nous avons testé la méthode de Branch-and-Price-and-Cut sur 156 instances divisées en cinq groupes de différentes tailles, et nous l’avons comparée à Cplex, l’un des meilleurs solveurs d’optimisation mathématique, ainsi qu’à la méthode de Branch-and- Cut. Notre méthode est compétitive et plus performante sur les instances de grande taille ayant un grand nombre de produits.

Price, profitability and employment in the handloom industry in kerala

The present study is on the nature, problems and prospects of the handloom industry in Kerala. The problems of the industry are mostly in the nature of low earnings of the workers, underutilisation of the existing capacity and low profit in its various sectors. The majority of the handloom co-operative societies are either dormant or facing liquidation. The income and employment of weavers are so pitiably low that they are living in utter poverty and starvation. Frequent price fluctuations of yarns, dyes and chemicals increase the cost of production and reduce the profitability. Consequently handloom fabrics are not able to compete with mill cloths and powerloom products. Accumulating the unsold stocks in the godowns of co-operative societies and with master weavers has become the practice of the day. Spinning mills in Kerala are producing only lower counts of yarns. S, handloom industry has to depend on textile mills in Tamil Nadu for higher counts of yarn. They create artificial scarcity and increase the prices exflorbitantly. Wage rates prevailing in Kerala are higher than those in Tamil Hadu. So rich master weavers are migrating to Tamil.Nadu and exporting the fabrics. under the label 'Kera1a Handlooms'. Governmental efforts to tackle the crisis by way of rebates and subsidies are found to be futile.

“Effect of spice oleoresins in microbial decontamination and their potential application in quality stabilization of Tuna (Euthynnus affinis) during storage”

Unprocessed seafood harbor high number of bacteria, hence are more prone to spoilage. In this circumstance, the use of spice in fish for reduction of microorganism can play an important role in seafood processing. Many essential oils from herbs and spices are used widely in the food, health and personal care industries and are classified as GRAS (Generally regarded as safe) substances or are permitted food additives. A large number of these compounds have been the subject of extensive toxicological scrutiny. However, their principal function is to impart desirable flavours and aromas and not necessarily to act as antimicrobial agents. Given the high flavour and aroma impact to plant essential oils, the future for using these compound as food preservatives lies in the careful selection and evaluation of their efficacy at low concentrations but in combination with other chemical preservatives or preservation processes. For this reason they are worth of study alone or in combination with processing methods in order to establish if they could extend the shelf-life of foods. In this study, the effect of the spices, clove, turmeric, cardamom, oregano, rosemary and garlic in controlling the spoilage and pathogenic bacteria is investigated. Their effect on biogenic amine formation in tuna especially, histamine, as a result of bacterial control is also studied in detail. The contribution of spice oleoresin in the sensory and textural parameters is investigated using textural profile analysis and sensory panel. Finally, the potential of spices in quality stabilization and in increasing the shelf–life of tuna during frozen storage is analysed

Isolation, Stabilization and Characterization of Xanthophyll from Marigold Flower- Tagetes Erecta-L

The present paper deals with the chemistry, isolation, separation, characterisation and stabilisation of the Marigold oleoresin and its application as a natural food colorant. Marigold (Tagetes Erecta L), an ornamental plant belonging to the composite family, has a rich source of natural antioxidant-Lutein. A natural pigment, xanthophylls offer an alternative to synthetic dyes as a food colorant, due to its non-toxicity. Chromatographic separations of saponified and unsaponified oleoresin were performed and Trans-Lutein identified as the major constituent. Well-preserved flowers exhibit a high yield of Xanthophyll content (105.19 g/Kg) in contrast to the unpreserved flower sample (54.87 g/Kg), emphasizing the significance of flower preservation in the extraction of xanthophyll. The stability and amount of xanthophyll also increased from 105.19 g/Kg to 226.88 g/Kg on saponification and subsequent purification with Ethylene Dichloride

The empirical study of the price mechanism in the Chinese housing market

In China, the history of the establishment of the private housing market is pretty short. Actually in less then two decades, the market has grown from almost the scratch to playing an important role in the economy. A great achievement! But many problems also exist. They need to be properly addressed and solved. Price problem---simply put, housing price is too high--- is one of them, and this paper is focused on it. Three basic questions are posed, i.e. (1) how to judge the housing affordability? (2) why the housing price is so high? (3) how to solve the housing price problem. The paper pays particular attention to answering the second question. Except the numerous news reports and surveys show that most of the ordinary city dwellers complained about the high housing price, the mathematical means, the four ratios, are applied to judge the housing affordability in Shanghai and Shenzhen. The results are very clear that the price problem is severe. So why? Something is wrong with the price mechanism. This research shows that mainly these five factors contribute to the price problem: the housing reform, the housing development model, the unbalanced housing market, the housing project financing and the poor governmental management. Finally the paper puts forward five suggestions to solve the housing price problem in first-hand private Chinese housing market. They include: the establishment of real estate information system, the creation of specific price management department, the government price regulation, the property tax and the legalization of "cushion money".

Effect of market-driven minigrids on the frequency stabilization process of isolated middle-sized power grids

Neueste Entwicklungen in Technologien für dezentrale Energieversorgungsstrukturen, erneuerbare Energien, Großhandelsenergiemarkt, Mini- und Mikronetze, verteilte Intelligenz, sowie Informations- und Datenübertragungstechnologien werden die zukünftige Energiewelt maßgeblich bestimmen. Die derzeitigen Forschungsbemühungen zur Vernutzung aller dieser Technologien bilden die Voraussetzungen für ein zukünftiges, intelligentes Stromnetz. Dieses neue Konzept gründet sich auf die folgenden Säulen: Die Versorgung erfolgt durch dezentrale Erzeugungsanlagen und nicht mehr durch große zentrale Erzeuger; die Steuerung beeinflusst nicht mehr allein die Versorgung sondern ermöglich eine auch aktive Führung des Bedarf; die Eingabeparameter des Systems sind nicht mehr nur mechanische oder elektrische Kenngrößen sondern auch Preissignale; die erneuerbaren Energieträger sind nicht mehr nur angeschlossen, sondern voll ins Energienetz integriert. Die vorgelegte Arbeit fügt sich in dieses neue Konzept des intelligenten Stromnetz ein. Da das zukünftige Stromnetz dezentral konfiguriert sein wird, ist eine Übergangsphase notwendig. Dieser Übergang benötigt Technologien, die alle diese neue Konzepte in die derzeitigen Stromnetze integrieren können. Diese Arbeit beweist, dass ein Mininetz in einem Netzabschnitt mittlerer Größe als netzschützende Element wirken kann. Hierfür wurde ein neues Energiemanagementsystem für Mininetze – das CMS (englisch: Cluster Management System) – entwickelt. Diese CMS funktioniert als eine von ökonomischorientierte Betriebsoptimierung und wirkt wie eine intelligente Last auf das System ein, reagierend auf Preissignale. Sobald wird durch eine Frequenzsenkung eine Überlastung des Systems bemerkt, ändert das Mininetz sein Verhalten und regelt seine Belastung, um die Stabilisierung des Hauptnetzes zu unterstützen. Die Wirksamkeit und die Realisierbarkeit des einwickelten Konzept wurde mit Hilfe von Simulationen und erfolgreichen Laborversuchen bewiesen.

Domestic policy responses to the food price crisis: The case of Bolivia

In face of the global food crisis of 2007-2008, severe concerns arose about how developing countries would be affected by the extreme short-term fluctuations in international commodity prices. We examine the effects of the crisis on Bolivia, one of the poorest countries of the Americas. We focus on the effectiveness of the domestic policy interventions in preventing spillovers of the development of international food prices to domestic markets. Using a cointegration model, we study price interdependencies of wheat flour, sunflower oil and poultry. The analysis suggests that the policy measures taken had little effect on food security during the food crisis. Throughout the entire period, perfect price transmission between the Bolivian poultry and sunflower oil markets and the respective international reference markets existed. Bolivian prices were determined by international prices and the policy interventions in the markets of these two commodities were not found to have had an effect. The government's large-scale wheat flour imports did not shield Bolivian consumers from the shocks of international prices.

Effects of different tillage treatments on labile soil organic matter pools and stabilization processes

An improved understanding of soil organic carbon (Corg) dynamics in interaction with the mechanisms of soil structure formation is important in terms of sustainable agriculture and reduction of environmental costs of agricultural ecosystems. However, information on physical and chemical processes influencing formation and stabilization of water stable aggregates in association with Corg sequestration is scarce. Long term soil experiments are important in evaluating open questions about management induced effects on soil Corg dynamics in interaction with soil structure formation. The objectives of the present thesis were: (i) to determine the long term impacts of different tillage treatments on the interaction between macro aggregation (>250 µm) and light fraction (LF) distribution and on C sequestration in plots differing in soil texture and climatic conditions. (ii) to determine the impact of different tillage treatments on temporal changes in the size distribution of water stable aggregates and on macro aggregate turnover. (iii) to evaluate the macro aggregate rebuilding in soils with varying initial Corg contents, organic matter (OM) amendments and clay contents in a short term incubation experiment. Soil samples were taken in 0-5 cm, 5-25 cm and 25-40 cm depth from up to four commercially used fields located in arable loess regions of eastern and southern Germany after 18-25 years of different tillage treatments with almost identical experimental setups per site. At each site, one large field with spatially homogenous soil properties was divided into three plots. One of the following three tillage treatments was carried in each plot: (i) Conventional tillage (CT) with annual mouldboard ploughing to 25-30 cm (ii) mulch tillage (MT) with a cultivator or disc harrow 10-15 cm deep, and (iii) no tillage (NT) with direct drilling. The crop rotation at each site consisted of sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.) - winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) - winter wheat. Crop residues were left on the field and crop management was carried out following the regional standards of agricultural practice. To investigate the above mentioned research objectives, three experiments were conducted: Experiment (i) was performed with soils sampled from four sites in April 2010 (wheat stand). Experiment (ii) was conducted with soils sampled from three sites in April 2010, September 2011 (after harvest or sugar beet stand), November 2011 (after tillage) and April 2012 (bare soil or wheat stand). An incubation study (experiment (iii)) was performed with soil sampled from one site in April 2010. Based on the aforementioned research objectives and experiments the main findings were: (i) Consistent results were found between the four long term tillage fields, varying in texture and climatic conditions. Correlation analysis of the yields of macro aggregate against the yields of free LF ( ≤1.8 g cm-3) and occluded LF, respectively, suggested that the effective litter translocation in higher soil depths and higher litter input under CT and MT compensated in the long term the higher physical impact by tillage equipment than under NT. The Corg stocks (kg Corg m−2) in 522 kg soil, based on the equivalent soil mass approach (CT: 0–40 cm, MT: 0–38 cm, NT: 0–36 cm) increased in the order CT (5.2) = NT (5.2) < MT (5.7). Significantly (p ≤ 0.05) highest Corg stocks under MT were probably a result of high crop yields in combination with reduced physical tillage impact and effective litter incorporation, resulting in a Corg sequestration rate of 31 g C-2 m-2 yr-1. (ii) Significantly higher yields of macro aggregates (g kg-2 soil) under NT (732-777) and MT (680-726) than under CT (542-631) were generally restricted to the 0-5 cm sampling depth for all sampling dates. Temporal changes on aggregate size distribution were only small and no tillage induced net effect was detectable. Thus, we assume that the physical impact by tillage equipment was only small or the impact was compensated by a higher soil mixing and effective litter translocation into higher soil depths under CT, which probably resulted in a high re aggregation. (iii) The short term incubation study showed that macro aggregate yields (g kg-2 soil) were higher after 28 days in soils receiving OM (121.4-363.0) than in the control soils (22.0-52.0), accompanied by higher contents of microbial biomass carbon and ergosterol. Highest soil respiration rates after OM amendments within the first three days of incubation indicated that macro aggregate formation is a fast process. Most of the rebuilt macro aggregates were formed within the first seven days of incubation (42-75%). Nevertheless, it was ongoing throughout the entire 28 days of incubation, which was indicated by higher soil respiration rates at the end of the incubation period in OM amended soils than in the control soils. At the same time, decreasing carbon contents within macro aggregates over time indicated that newly occluded OM within the rebuilt macro aggregates served as Corg source for microbial biomass. The different clay contents played only minor role in macro aggregate formation under the particular conditions of the incubation study. Overall, no net changes on macro aggregation were identified in the short term. Furthermore, no indications for an effective Corg sequestration on the long term under NT in comparison to CT were found. The interaction of soil disturbance, litter distribution and the fast re aggregation suggested that a distinct steady state per tillage treatment in terms of soil aggregation was established. However, continuous application of MT with a combination of reduced physical tillage impact and effective litter incorporation may offer some potential in improving the soil structure and may therefore prevent incorporated LF from rapid decomposition and result in a higher C sequestration on the long term.

Impact on Policy Responses to Food Price Crisis and Rural Food Security in Sri Lanka

In Sri Lanka policy responses have direct impacts on rural dwellers. Over 80% of Sri Lanka’s population live in rural areas and 90% of them represent low income dwellers. Their production system may be hampered by fragmented landholding, poor economics of scale, low investment levels resulting from poor financial services as well as inappropriate or limited technology. They are vulnerable to price hikes of basic foods and food security issues due to fragmented landholding and poor financial services. Policy measures to reduce the transmission of higher international prices in domestic markets exist to protect the food security of the vulnerable population. This paper will discuss the food policy and strategies implemented by the government and outside to the above facts this paper also describes the effectiveness of the policies forwarded by the government. The objective of this study is to analyse the impact of policy responses to the food price crisis and rural food security in Sri Lanka. Outside of the above facts this study also treats the impact of policies and decisions on the nutritional condition of rural dwellers. Furthermore this study is to analyse the fluctuation of buying power with the price hikes and the relation of above facts with issues like malnutrition. This paper discusses why policy makers should pay greater attention to rural dwellers and describes the multiple pathways through which food price increases have on rural people. It also provides evidence of the impact of this crisis in particular, through hidden hunger, and discusses how current policy responses should adjust and improve to protect the rural dwellers in the short and long term.

Molecular computations for reactions and phase transitions: applications to protein stabilization, hydrates and catalysis

In this work we have made significant contributions in three different areas of interest: therapeutic protein stabilization, thermodynamics of natural gas clathrate-hydrates, and zeolite catalysis. In all three fields, using our various computational techniques, we have been able to elucidate phenomena that are difficult or impossible to explain experimentally. More specifically, in mixed solvent systems for proteins we developed a statistical-mechanical method to model the thermodynamic effects of additives in molecular-level detail. It was the first method demonstrated to have truly predictive (no adjustable parameters) capability for real protein systems. We also describe a novel mechanism that slows protein association reactions, called the “gap effect.” We developed a comprehensive picture of methioine oxidation by hydrogen peroxide that allows for accurate prediction of protein oxidation and provides a rationale for developing strategies to control oxidation. The method of solvent accessible area (SAA) was shown not to correlate well with oxidation rates. A new property, averaged two-shell water coordination number (2SWCN) was identified and shown to correlate well with oxidation rates. Reference parameters for the van der Waals Platteeuw model of clathrate-hydrates were found for structure I and structure II. These reference parameters are independent of the potential form (unlike the commonly used parameters) and have been validated by calculating phase behavior and structural transitions for mixed hydrate systems. These calculations are validated with experimental data for both structures and for systems that undergo transitions from one structure to another. This is the first method of calculating hydrate thermodynamics to demonstrate predictive capability for phase equilibria, structural changes, and occupancy in pure and mixed hydrate systems. We have computed a new mechanism for the methanol coupling reaction to form ethanol and water in the zeolite chabazite. The mechanism at 400°C proceeds via stable intermediates of water, methane, and protonated formaldehyde.

Los conceptos de salud financiera, riesgo y epidemiología en los estados financieros de las compañías del sector de extracción de petróleo crudo y gas natural en Colombia

El presente proyecto tiene como objeto identificar cuáles son los conceptos de salud, enfermedad, epidemiología y riesgo aplicables a las empresas del sector de extracción de petróleo y gas natural en Colombia. Dado, el bajo nivel de predicción de los análisis financieros tradicionales y su insuficiencia, en términos de inversión y toma de decisiones a largo plazo, además de no considerar variables como el riesgo y las expectativas de futuro, surge la necesidad de abordar diferentes perspectivas y modelos integradores. Esta apreciación es pertinente dentro del sector de extracción de petróleo y gas natural, debido a la creciente inversión extranjera que ha reportado, US$2.862 millones en el 2010, cifra mayor a diez veces su valor en el año 2003. Así pues, se podrían desarrollar modelos multi-dimensional, con base en los conceptos de salud financiera, epidemiológicos y estadísticos. El termino de salud y su adopción en el sector empresarial, resulta útil y mantiene una coherencia conceptual, evidenciando una presencia de diferentes subsistemas o factores interactuantes e interconectados. Es necesario mencionar también, que un modelo multidimensional (multi-stage) debe tener en cuenta el riesgo y el análisis epidemiológico ha demostrado ser útil al momento de determinarlo e integrarlo en el sistema junto a otros conceptos, como la razón de riesgo y riesgo relativo. Esto se analizará mediante un estudio teórico-conceptual, que complementa un estudio previo, para contribuir al proyecto de finanzas corporativas de la línea de investigación en Gerencia.

Testing the law of one price in food markets: evidence for Colombia using disaggregated data

This paper applies stationarity tests to examine evidence of market integration for a relatively large sample of food products in Colombia. We Önd little support for market integration when using the univariate KPSS tests for stationarity. However, within a panel context and after allowing for cross sectional dependence, the Hadri tests provide much more evidence supporting the view that food markets are integrated or, in other words, that the law of one price holds for most products.