946 resultados para Predictive Models


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Background: Leptin-deficient mice (Lep(ob)/Lep(ob), also known as ob/ob) are of great importance for studies of obesity, diabetes and other correlated pathologies. Thus, generation of animals carrying the Lep(ob) gene mutation as well as additional genomic modifications has been used to associate genes with metabolic diseases. However, the infertility of Lep(ob)/Lep(ob) mice impairs this kind of breeding experiment. Objective: To propose a new method for production of Lep(ob)/Lep(ob) animals and Lep(ob)/Lep(ob)-derived animal models by restoring the fertility of Lep(ob)/Lep(ob) mice in a stable way through white adipose tissue transplantations. Methods: For this purpose, 1 g of peri-gonadal adipose tissue from lean donors was used in subcutaneous transplantations of Lep(ob)/Lep(ob) animals and a crossing strategy was established to generate Lep(ob)/Lep(ob)-derived mice. Results: The presented method reduced by four times the number of animals used to generate double transgenic models (from about 20 to 5 animals per double mutant produced) and minimized the number of genotyping steps (from 3 to 1 genotyping step, reducing the number of Lep gene genotyping assays from 83 to 6). Conclusion: The application of the adipose transplantation technique drastically improves both the production of Lep(ob)/Lep(ob) animals and the generation of Lep(ob)/Lep(ob)-derived animal models. International Journal of Obesity (2009) 33, 938-944; doi: 10.1038/ijo.2009.95; published online 16 June 2009

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive validity of the Braden Scale for Predicting Pressure Sore Risk in elderly residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs) in Brazil. The determination of the cutoff score for the Brazilian population is important for the comparison between Brazilian and international studies and establishment of guidelines for prevention of pressure ulcers in our health care facilities. This is the first study of its kind in Brazil. This was a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study conducted with 233 LTCF residents aged 60 and over who underwent complete skin examination and Braden Scale rating every 2 days for 3 months. Two groups of patients were considered: the total group (N = 233) and risk group (n = 94, total scores <= 18). Data from the first and last assessments were analyzed for sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios. The best results were obtained for the total group, with cutoff scores of 18 and 17, sensitivity of 75.9% and 74.1%, specificity of 70.3% and 75.4%, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.79 and 0.81 at the first and last assessments, respectively. For the risk group, the cutoff scores of 16 (first assessment) and 13 (last assessment) were associated with a smaller AUC-ROC and, therefore, lower predictive accuracy. The Braden Scale showed good predictive validity in elderly LTCF residents. (Geriatr Nurs 2010;31:95-104)

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AIM: We sought to evaluate the predictive validity of the Waterlow Scale in hospitalized patients. SUBJECTS AND SETTING: The study was conducted at a general private hospital with 220 beds and a mean time of hospitalization of 7.4 days and a mean occupation rate of approximately 80%. Adult patients with a Braden Scale score of 18 or less and a Waterlow Scale score of 16 or more were studied. The sample consisted of 98 patients with a mean age of 71.1 +/- 15.5 years. METHODS: Skin assessment and scoring by using the Waterlow and Braden scales were completed on alternate days. Patients were examined at least 3 times to be considered for analysis. The data were submitted to sensitivity and specificity analysis by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and positive (+LR) and negative (-LR) likelihood ratios. RESULTS: The cutoff scores were 17, 20, and 20 in the first, second, and third assessment, respectively. Sensitivity was 71.4%, 85.7%, and 85.7% and specificity was 67.0%, 40.7%, and 32.9%, respectively. Analysis of the area under the ROC curve revealed good accuracy (0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.35-0.93) only for the cutoff score 17 in the first assessment. The results also showed probabilities of 14%, 10%, and 9% for the development of pressure ulcer when the test results were positive (+LR) and of 3% (-LR) when the test results were negative for the cutoff scores in the first, second, and third assessment, respectively. CONCLUSION: The Waterlow Scale achieved good predictive validity in predicting pressure ulcer in hospitalized patients when a cutoff score of 17 was used in the first assessment.

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Aim. To identify the impact of pain on quality of life (QOL) of patients with chronic venous ulcers. Methods. A cross-sectional study was performed on 40 outpatients with chronic venous ulcers who were recruited at one outpatient care center in Sao Paulo, Brazil. WHOQOL-Bref was used to assess QOL, the McGill Pain Questionnarie-Short Form (MPQ) to identify pain characteristics, and an 11-point numerical pain rating scale to measure pain intensity. Kruskall-Wallis or ANOVA test, with post-hoc correction (Tukey test) was applied to compare groups. Multiple linear regression models were used. Results. The mean age of the patients was 67 +/- 11 years (range, 39-95 years), and 26 (65%) were women. The prevalence of pain was 90%, with worst pain mean intensity of 6.2 +/- 3.5. Severe pain was the most prevalent (21 patients, 52.5%). Pain most frequently reported was sensory-discriminative and evaluate in quality. Pain was significantly and negatively correlated with physical (PY), environmental (EV), and overall QOL. Compared to a no-pain group, those with pain had lower overall QOL. On multiple analyses, pain remained as a predictor of overall QOL (beta = -0.73, P = 0.03) and was also predictive of social QOL, whereas pain did not have any impact on physical, emotional, or social relationships QOL (beta = -3.85, P = 0.00) when adjusted for age, number, duration and frequency of wounds, pain dimension (MPQ), partnership, and economic status. Conclusion. To improve QOL of out-patients with chronic venous ulcers, the qualities and the intensity of pain must be considered differently.

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The airflow velocities and pressures are calculated from a three-dimensional model of the human larynx by using the finite element method. The laryngeal airflow is assumed to be incompressible, isothermal, steady, and created by fixed pressure drops. The influence of different laryngeal profiles (convergent, parallel, and divergent), glottal area, and dimensions of false vocal folds in the airflow are investigated. The results indicate that vertical and horizontal phase differences in the laryngeal tissue movements are influenced by the nonlinear pressure distribution across the glottal channel, and the glottal entrance shape influences the air pressure distribution inside the glottis. Additionally, the false vocal folds increase the glottal duct pressure drop by creating a new constricted channel in the larynx, and alter the airflow vortexes formed after the true vocal folds. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This paper analyses the presence of financial constraint in the investment decisions of 367 Brazilian firms from 1997 to 2004, using a Bayesian econometric model with group-varying parameters. The motivation for this paper is the use of clustering techniques to group firms in a totally endogenous form. In order to classify the firms we used a hybrid clustering method, that is, hierarchical and non-hierarchical clustering techniques jointly. To estimate the parameters a Bayesian approach was considered. Prior distributions were assumed for the parameters, classifying the model in random or fixed effects. Ordinate predictive density criterion was used to select the model providing a better prediction. We tested thirty models and the better prediction considers the presence of 2 groups in the sample, assuming the fixed effect model with a Student t distribution with 20 degrees of freedom for the error. The results indicate robustness in the identification of financial constraint when the firms are classified by the clustering techniques. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The objective of this paper is to provide and verify simplified models that predict the longitudinal stresses that develop in C-section purlins in uplift. The paper begins with the simple case of flexural stress: where the force has to be applied at the shear center, or the section braced in both flanges. Restrictions on load application point and restraint of the flanges are removed until arriving at the more complex problem of bending when movement of the tension flange alone is restricted, as commonly found in purlin-sheeting systems. Winter`s model for predicting the longitudinal stresses developed due to direct torsion is reviewed, verified, and then extended to cover the case of a bending member with tension flange restraint. The developed longitudinal stresses from flexure and restrained torsion are used to assess the elastic stability behavior of typical purlin-sheeting systems. Finally, strength predictions of typical C-section purlins are provided for existing AISI methods and a newly proposed extension to the direct strength method that employs the predicted longitudinal stress distributions within the strength prediction. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This communication proposes a simple way to introduce fibers into finite element modelling. This is a promising formulation to deal with fiber-reinforced composites by the finite element method (FEM), as it allows the consideration of short or long fibers placed arbitrarily inside a continuum domain (matrix). The most important feature of the formulation is that no additional degree of freedom is introduced into the pre-existent finite element numerical system to consider any distribution of fiber inclusions. In other words, the size of the system of equations used to solve a non-reinforced medium is the same as the one used to solve the reinforced counterpart. Another important characteristic is the reduced work required by the user to introduce fibers, avoiding `rebar` elements, node-by-node geometrical definitions or even complex mesh generation. An additional characteristic of the technique is the possibility of representing unbounded stresses at the end of fibers using a finite number of degrees of freedom. Further studies are required for non-linear applications in which localization may occur. Along the text the linear formulation is presented and the bounded connection between fibers and continuum is considered. Four examples are presented, including non-linear analysis, to validate and show the capabilities of the formulation. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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This work deals with the determination of crack openings in 2D reinforced concrete structures using the Finite Element Method with a smeared rotating crack model or an embedded crack model In the smeared crack model, the strong discontinuity associated with the crack is spread throughout the finite element As is well known, the continuity of the displacement field assumed for these models is incompatible with the actual discontinuity However, this type of model has been used extensively due to the relative computational simplicity it provides by treating cracks in a continuum framework, as well as the reportedly good predictions of reinforced concrete members` structural behavior On the other hand, by enriching the displacement field within each finite element crossed by the crack path, the embedded crack model is able to describe the effects of actual discontinuities (cracks) This paper presents a comparative study of the abilities of these 2D models in predicting the mechanical behavior of reinforced concrete structures Structural responses are compared with experimental results from the literature, including crack patterns, crack openings and rebar stresses predicted by both models

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This paper presents both the theoretical and the experimental approaches of the development of a mathematical model to be used in multi-variable control system designs of an active suspension for a sport utility vehicle (SUV), in this case a light pickup truck. A complete seven-degree-of-freedom model is successfully quickly identified, with very satisfactory results in simulations and in real experiments conducted with the pickup truth. The novelty of the proposed methodology is the use of commercial software in the early stages of the identification to speed up the process and to minimize the need for a large number of costly experiments. The paper also presents major contributions to the identification of uncertainties in vehicle suspension models and in the development of identification methods using the sequential quadratic programming, where an innovation regarding the calculation of the objective function is proposed and implemented. Results from simulations of and practical experiments with the real SUV are presented, analysed, and compared, showing the potential of the method.

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This paper studies a simplified methodology to integrate the real time optimization (RTO) of a continuous system into the model predictive controller in the one layer strategy. The gradient of the economic objective function is included in the cost function of the controller. Optimal conditions of the process at steady state are searched through the use of a rigorous non-linear process model, while the trajectory to be followed is predicted with the use of a linear dynamic model, obtained through a plant step test. The main advantage of the proposed strategy is that the resulting control/optimization problem can still be solved with a quadratic programming routine at each sampling step. Simulation results show that the approach proposed may be comparable to the strategy that solves the full economic optimization problem inside the MPC controller where the resulting control problem becomes a non-linear programming problem with a much higher computer load. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The main scope of this work is the implementation of an MPC that integrates the control and the economic optimization of the system. The two problems are solved simultaneously through the modification of the control cost function that includes an additional term related to the economic objective. The optimizing MPC is based on a quadratic program (QP) as the conventional MPC and can be solved with the available QP solvers. The method was implemented in an industrial distillation system, and the results show that the approach is efficient and can be used, in several practical cases. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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A model predictive controller (MPC) is proposed, which is robustly stable for some classes of model uncertainty and to unknown disturbances. It is considered as the case of open-loop stable systems, where only the inputs and controlled outputs are measured. It is assumed that the controller will work in a scenario where target tracking is also required. Here, it is extended to the nominal infinite horizon MPC with output feedback. The method considers an extended cost function that can be made globally convergent for any finite input horizon considered for the uncertain system. The method is based on the explicit inclusion of cost contracting constraints in the control problem. The controller considers the output feedback case through a non-minimal state-space model that is built using past output measurements and past input increments. The application of the robust output feedback MPC is illustrated through the simulation of a low-order multivariable system.

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The water activity of aqueous solutions of EO-PO block copolymers of six different molar masses and EO/PO ratios and of maltodextrins of three different molar masses was determined at 298.15 K. The results showed that these aqueous solutions present a negative deviation from Raoult`s law. The Flory-Huggins and UNIFAC excess Gibbs energy models were employed to model the experimental data. While a good agreement was obtained with the Flory-Huggins equation, discrepancies were observed when predicting the experimental behavior with the UNIFAC model. The water activities of ternary systems formed by a synthetic polymer, maltodextrin and water were also measured and used to test the predictive capability of both models.

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This paper concern the development of a stable model predictive controller (MPC) to be integrated with real time optimization (RTO) in the control structure of a process system with stable and integrating outputs. The real time process optimizer produces Optimal targets for the system inputs and for Outputs that Should be dynamically implemented by the MPC controller. This paper is based oil a previous work (Comput. Chem. Eng. 2005, 29, 1089) where a nominally stable MPC was proposed for systems with the conventional control approach where only the outputs have set points. This work is also based oil the work of Gonzalez et at. (J. Process Control 2009, 19, 110) where the zone control of stable systems is studied. The new control for is obtained by defining ail extended control objective that includes input targets and zone controller the outputs. Additional decision variables are also defined to increase the set of feasible solutions to the control problem. The hard constraints resulting from the cancellation of the integrating modes Lit the end of the control horizon are softened,, and the resulting control problem is made feasible to a large class of unknown disturbances and changes of the optimizing targets. The methods are illustrated with the simulated application of the proposed,approaches to a distillation column of the oil refining industry.