Uncertainty methods inactivation and inventory calculations

For a number of important nuclides, complete activation data libraries with covariance data will be produced, so that uncertainty propagation in fuel cycle codes (in this case ACAB,FISPIN, ...) can be developed and tested. Eventually, fuel inventory codes should be able to handle the complete set of uncertainty data, i.e. those of nuclear reactions (cross sections, etc.), radioactive decay and fission yield data. For this, capabilities will be developed both to produce covariance data and to propagate the uncertainties through the inventory calculations.

Reduction in Calculated Uncertainty of a Noise Map by Improving the Traffic Model Data Through Two Phases

The influence of applying European default traffic values to the making of a noise map was evaluated in a typical environment like Palma de Mallorca. To assess these default traffic values, a first model has been created and compared with measured noise levels. Subsequently a second traffic model, improving the input data used for the first one, has been created and validated according to the deviations. Different methodologies were also examined for collecting model input data that would be of higher quality, by analysing the improvement generated in the reduction in the uncertainty of the noise map introduced by the road traffic noise emission

Multi-agent Architecture for Heterogeneous Reasoning under Uncertainty Combining MSBN and Ontologies in Distributed Network Diagnosis

This article proposes a MAS architecture for network diagnosis under uncertainty. Network diagnosis is divided into two inference processes: hypothesis generation and hypothesis confirmation. The first process is distributed among several agents based on a MSBN, while the second one is carried out by agents using semantic reasoning. A diagnosis ontology has been defined in order to combine both inference processes. To drive the deliberation process, dynamic data about the influence of observations are taken during diagnosis process. In order to achieve quick and reliable diagnoses, this influence is used to choose the best action to perform. This approach has been evaluated in a P2P video streaming scenario. Computational and time improvements are highlight as conclusions.

Influence of loudspeaker directivity on the measurement uncertainty

One of the most significant aspects of a building’s acoustic behavior is the airborne sound insulation of the room façades, since this determines the protection of its inhabitants against environmental noise. For this reason, authorities in most countries have established in their acoustic regulations for buildings the minimum value of sound insulation that must be respected for façades. In order to verify compliance with legal requirements it is usual to perform acoustic measurements in the finished buildings and then compare the measurement results with the established limits. Since there is always a certain measurement uncertainty, this uncertainty must be calculated and taken into account in order to ensure compliance with specifications. The most commonly used method for measuring sound insulation on façades is the so-called Global Loudspeaker Method, specified in ISO 140-5:1998. This method uses a loudspeaker placed outside the building as a sound source. The loudspeaker directivity has a significant influence on the measurement results, and these results may change noticeably by choosing different loudspeakers, even though they all fulfill the directivity requirements of ISO 140-5. This work analyzes the influence of the loudspeaker directivity on the results of façade sound insulation measurement, and determines its contribution to measurement uncertainty. The theoretical analysis is experimentally validated by means of an intermediate precision test according to ISO 5725-3:1994, which compares the values of sound insulation obtained for a façade using various loudspeakers with different directivities

Considerations in Determining the Cost of Measurement Uncertainty Associated with Dimensional Tolerances Verification

The verification of compliance with a design specification in manufacturing requires the use of metrological instruments to check if the magnitude associated with the design specification is or not according with tolerance range. Such instrumentation and their use during the measurement process, has associated an uncertainty of measurement whose value must be related to the value of tolerance tested. Most papers dealing jointly tolerance and measurement uncertainties are mainly focused on the establishment of a relationship uncertainty-tolerance without paying much attention to the impact from the standpoint of process cost. This paper analyzes the cost-measurement uncertainty, considering uncertainty as a productive factor in the process outcome. This is done starting from a cost-tolerance model associated with the process. By means of this model the existence of a measurement uncertainty is calculated in quantitative terms of cost and its impact on the process is analyzed.

Traffic uncertainty in toll motorway concessions in Spain

This study assessed the inaccuracy of the traffic estimates for toll motorway concessions in Spain. It was found that the estimates conducted by both the government and the concessionaire showed a significant bias towards overestimating traffic. The level of overestimation in Spain is even greater than that reported by other studies based on worldwide data. The notorious levels of overestimation entail severe burdens to the economics of the concessionaires that often prompt renegotiations of the contracts, which are often accepted by the government. These renegotiations usually end up with toll changes or extension of the concession terms, which have to be ultimately borne by future motorway users. It is postulated herein that the bias towards overestimating traffic in toll motorways in Spain is mostly caused by strategic issues rather than by modelling errors.

Analysis of different uncertainty activation cross section data libraries for LWR, ADS and DEMO neutron spectra

This work is aimed to present the main differences of nuclear data uncertainties among three different nuclear data libraries: EAF-2007, EAF-2010 and SCALE-6.0, under different neutron spectra: LWR, ADS and DEMO (fusion). To take into account the neutron spectrum, the uncertainty data are collapsed to onegroup. That is a simple way to see the differences among libraries for one application. Also, the neutron spectrum effect on different applications can be observed. These comparisons are presented only for (n,fission), (n,gamma) and (n,p) reactions, for the main transuranic isotopes (234,235,236,238U, 237Np, 238,239,240,241Pu, 241,242m,243Am, 242,243,244,245,246,247,248Cm, 249Bk, 249,250,251,252Cf). But also general comparisons among libraries are presented taking into account all included isotopes. In other works, target accuracies are presented for nuclear data uncertainties; here, these targets are compared with uncertainties on the above libraries. The main results of these comparisons are that EAF-2010 has reduced their uncertainties for many isotopes from EAF-2007 for (n,gamma) and (n,fission) but not for (n,p); SCALE-6.0 gives lower uncertainties for (n,fission) reactions for ADS and PWR applications, but gives higher uncertainties for (n,p) reactions in all applications. For the (n,gamma) reaction, the amount of isotopes which have higher uncertainties is quite similar to the amount of isotopes which have lower uncertainties when SCALE-6.0 and EAF-2010 are compared. When the effect of neutron spectra is analysed, the ADS neutron spectrum obtained the highest uncertainties for (n,gamma) and (n,fission) reactions of all libraries.

Analytical evaluation of uncertainty on active antenna arrays

An analytical method for evaluating the uncertainty of the performance of active antenna arrays in the whole spatial spectrum is presented. Since array processing algorithms based on spatial reference are widely used to track moving targets, it is essential to be aware of the impact of the uncertainty sources on the antenna response. Furthermore, the estimation of the direction of arrival (DOA) depends on the array uncertainty. The aim of the uncertainties analysis is to provide an exhaustive characterization of the behavior of the active antenna array associated with its main uncertainty sources. The result of this analysis helps to select the proper calibration technique to be implemented. An illustrative example for a triangular antenna array used for satellite tracking is presented showing the suitability of the proposed method to carry out an efficient characterization of an active antenna array.

Calculus of the uncertainty in acoustic field measurements: comparative study between the uncertainty propagation method and the distribution propagation method

The new Spanish Regulation in Building Acoustic establishes values and limits for the different acoustic magnitudes whose fulfillment can be verify by means field measurements. In this sense, an essential aspect of a field measurement is to give the measured magnitude and the uncertainty associated to such a magnitude. In the calculus of the uncertainty it is very usual to follow the uncertainty propagation method as described in the Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurements (GUM). Other option is the numerical calculus based on the distribution propagation method by means of Monte Carlo simulation. In fact, at this stage, it is possible to find several publications developing this last method by using different software programs. In the present work, we used Excel for the Monte Carlo simulation for the calculus of the uncertainty associated to the different magnitudes derived from the field measurements following ISO 140-4, 140-5 and 140-7. We compare the results with the ones obtained by the uncertainty propagation method. Although both methods give similar values, some small differences have been observed. Some arguments to explain such differences are the asymmetry of the probability distributions associated to the entry magnitudes,the overestimation of the uncertainty following the GUM

Influence of loudspeaker directivity on the measurement uncertainty of the acoustic testing of facades.

One of the most significant aspects of a building?s acoustic behavior is the airborne sound insulation of the room façades, since this determines the protection of its inhabitants against environmental noise. For this reason, authorities in most countries have established in their acoustic regulations for buildings the minimum value of sound insulation that must be respected for façades. In order to verify compliance with legal requirements it is usual to perform acoustic measurements in the finished buildings and then compare the measurement results with the established limits. Since there is always a certain measurement uncertainty, this uncertainty must be calculated and taken into account in order to ensure compliance with specifications. The most commonly used method for measuring sound insulation on façades is the so-called Global Loudspeaker Method, specified in ISO 140-5:1998. This method uses a loudspeaker placed outside the building as a sound source. The loudspeaker directivity has a significant influence on the measurement results, and these results may change noticeably by choosing different loudspeakers, even though they all fulfill the directivity requirements of ISO 140-5. This work analyzes the influence of the loudspeaker directivity on the results of façade sound insulation measurement, and determines its contribution to measurement uncertainty. The theoretical analysis is experimentally validated by means of an intermediate precision test according to ISO 5725-3:1994, which compares the values of sound insulation obtained for a façade using various loudspeakers with different directivities. Keywords: Uncertainty, Façade, Insulation

Cartography of uncertainty of predicted forest variables estimated from ALS data

cartografía de incertidumbres

Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation approaches in ADS burn-up calculations

In activation calculations, there are several approaches to quantify uncertainties: deterministic by means of sensitivity analysis, and stochastic by means of Monte Carlo. Here, two different Monte Carlo approaches for nuclear data uncertainty are presented: the first one is the Total Monte Carlo (TMC). The second one is by means of a Monte Carlo sampling of the covariance information included in the nuclear data libraries to propagate these uncertainties throughout the activation calculations. This last approach is what we named Covariance Uncertainty Propagation, CUP. This work presents both approaches and their differences. Also, they are compared by means of an activation calculation, where the cross-section uncertainties of 239Pu and 241Pu are propagated in an ADS activation calculation.

A Cost-Benefit analysis model for technical debt management considering uncertainty and time

In the last few years, technical debt has been used as a useful means for making the intrinsic cost of the internal software quality weaknesses visible. This visibility is made possible by quantifying this cost. Specifically, technical debt is expressed in terms of two main concepts: principal and interest. The principal is the cost of eliminating or reducing the impact of a, so called, technical debt item in a software system; whereas the interest is the recurring cost, over a time period, of not eliminating a technical debt item. Previous works about technical debt are mainly focused on estimating principal and interest, and on performing a cost-benefit analysis. This cost-benefit analysis allows one to determine if to remove technical debt is profitable and to prioritize which items incurring in technical debt should be fixed first. Nevertheless, for these previous works technical debt is flat along the time. However the introduction of new factors to estimate technical debt may produce non flat models that allow us to produce more accurate predictions. These factors should be used to estimate principal and interest, and to perform cost-benefit analysis related to technical debt. In this paper, we take a step forward introducing the uncertainty about the interest, and the time frame factors so that it becomes possible to depict a number of possible future scenarios. Estimations obtained without considering the possible evolution of the interest over time may be less accurate as they consider simplistic scenarios without changes.

UPM Activities on Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Assembly Depletion

UPM Activities on Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Assembly Depletion

Nuclear Data Uncertainty Propagation to Reactivity Coefficients of a Sodium Fast Reactor

The assessment of the uncertainty levels on the design and safety parameters for the innovative European Sodium Fast Reactor (ESFR) is mandatory. Some of these relevant safety quantities are the Doppler and void reactivity coefficients, whose uncertainties are quantified. Besides, the nuclear reaction data where an improvement will certainly benefit the design accuracy are identified. This work has been performed with the SCALE 6.1 codes suite and its multigroups cross sections library based on ENDF/B-VII.0 evaluation.