Combining opinions for use in Bayesian networks: A measurement error approach

Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical probabilistic models used for reasoning under uncertainty. These models are becoming increasing popular in a range of fields including ecology, computational biology, medical diagnosis, and forensics. In most of these cases, the BNs are quantified using information from experts, or from user opinions. An interest therefore lies in the way in which multiple opinions can be represented and used in a BN. This paper proposes the use of a measurement error model to combine opinions for use in the quantification of a BN. The multiple opinions are treated as a realisation of measurement error and the model uses the posterior probabilities ascribed to each node in the BN which are computed from the prior information given by each expert. The proposed model addresses the issues associated with current methods of combining opinions such as the absence of a coherent probability model, the lack of the conditional independence structure of the BN being maintained, and the provision of only a point estimate for the consensus. The proposed model is applied an existing Bayesian Network and performed well when compared to existing methods of combining opinions.

Correlation based method for phase identification in a three phase LV distribution network

Low voltage distribution networks feature a high degree of load unbalance and the addition of rooftop photovoltaic is driving further unbalances in the network. Single phase consumers are distributed across the phases but even if the consumer distribution was well balanced when the network was constructed changes will occur over time. Distribution transformer losses are increased by unbalanced loadings. The estimation of transformer losses is a necessary part of the routine upgrading and replacement of transformers and the identification of the phase connections of households allows a precise estimation of the phase loadings and total transformer loss. This paper presents a new technique and preliminary test results for a method of automatically identifying the phase of each customer by correlating voltage information from the utility's transformer system with voltage information from customer smart meters. The techniques are novel as they are purely based upon a time series of electrical voltage measurements taken at the household and at the distribution transformer. Experimental results using a combination of electrical power and current of the real smart meter datasets demonstrate the performance of our techniques.

Consumer phase identification in a three phase unbalanced LV distribution network

A new technique is presented for automatically identifying the phase connection of domestic customers. Voltage information from a reference three phase house is correlated with voltage information from other customer electricity meters on the same network to determine the highest probability phase connection. The techniques are purely based upon a time series of electrical voltage measurements taken by the household smart meters and no additional equipment is required. The method is demonstrated using real smart meter datasets to correctly identify the phase connections of 75 consumers on a low voltage distribution feeder.

Search-phase echolocation calls of the New Zealand lesser short-tailed bat (Mystacina tuberculata) and long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus).

This paper describes the search-phase echolocation calls of lesser short-tailed bats (Mystacina tuberculata) and long-tailed bats (Chalinolobus tuberculatus). Calls were recorded from all three subspecies of short-tailed bat and seven populations of long-tailed bat, three in Northland, two in the central North Island, and two in the lower South Island. The calls were recorded in the field and digitised, then three spectral components and one temporal component of the calls were measured. Calls of the lesser short-tailed bat could be loosely classified into subspecies by means of multivariate discriminant function analysis. Similarly, long-tailed bat calls showed regional variation, and discriminant function analysis was able to fit calls to regional groups with a high rate of success. The significance of the results presented is discussed in terms of the conservation of New Zealand bats and the unique ecology of the lesser short-tailed bat.

Error and variance bounds on sigmoidal neurons with weight and input errors

Bounds on the expectation and variance of errors at the output of a multilayer feedforward neural network with perturbed weights and inputs are derived. It is assumed that errors in weights and inputs to the network are statistically independent and small. The bounds obtained are applicable to both digital and analogue network implementations and are shown to be of practical value.

A novel ambiguity acceptance test threshold determination method with controllable failure rate

Ambiguity validation as an important procedure of integer ambiguity resolution is to test the correctness of the fixed integer ambiguity of phase measurements before being used for positioning computation. Most existing investigations on ambiguity validation focus on test statistic. How to determine the threshold more reasonably is less understood, although it is one of the most important topics in ambiguity validation. Currently, there are two threshold determination methods in the ambiguity validation procedure: the empirical approach and the fixed failure rate (FF-) approach. The empirical approach is simple but lacks of theoretical basis. The fixed failure rate approach has a rigorous probability theory basis, but it employs a more complicated procedure. This paper focuses on how to determine the threshold easily and reasonably. Both FF-ratio test and FF-difference test are investigated in this research and the extensive simulation results show that the FF-difference test can achieve comparable or even better performance than the well-known FF-ratio test. Another benefit of adopting the FF-difference test is that its threshold can be expressed as a function of integer least-squares (ILS) success rate with specified failure rate tolerance. Thus, a new threshold determination method named threshold function for the FF-difference test is proposed. The threshold function method preserves the fixed failure rate characteristic and is also easy-to-apply. The performance of the threshold function is validated with simulated data. The validation results show that with the threshold function method, the impact of the modelling error on the failure rate is less than 0.08%. Overall, the threshold function for the FF-difference test is a very promising threshold validation method and it makes the FF-approach applicable for the real-time GNSS positioning applications.

The entrepreneurial break-up : disengaging from the start-up phase

Research on firm exit has grown considerably in volume and sophistication in recent years, leading to new insights and strengthened research-based evidence. However, no framework explicitly explains nascent disengagement, i.e., termination of start-up efforts before the firm has reached an operational stage. Further, prior research has had limited success at explaining nascent entrepreneurial behaviour using theories based on logics of resource availability and economic rationality. In response, this chapter approaches nascent stage disengagement unconventionally by proposing to analogously apply Sternberg’s (1986) Triangular Theory of Love, arguing that founders are less likely to give up the start-up effort if they create strong, almost loving relations to their businesses. Nascent entrepreneurs who terminate the start-up process are proposed to lack one or more of the components – intimacy, passion, and commitment – which are essential according to Sternberg’s theory.

The suitability of DEAE-Cl active groups on customized poly(GMA-co-EDMA) continuous stationary phase for fast enzyme-free isolation of plasmid DNA

The creation of a commercially viable and a large-scale purification process for plasmid DNA (pDNA) production requires a whole-systems continuous or semi-continuous purification strategy employing optimised stationary adsorption phase(s) without the use of expensive and toxic chemicals, avian/bovine-derived enzymes and several built-in unit processes, thus affecting overall plasmid recovery, processing time and economics. Continuous stationary phases are known to offer fast separation due to their large pore diameter making large molecule pDNA easily accessible with limited mass transfer resistance even at high flow rates. A monolithic stationary sorbent was synthesised via free radical liquid porogenic polymerisation of ethylene glycol dimethacrylate (EDMA) and glycidyl methacrylate (GMA) with surface and pore characteristics tailored specifically for plasmid binding, retention and elution. The polymer was functionalised with an amine active group for anion-exchange purification of pDNA from cleared lysate obtained from E. coli DH5α-pUC19 pellets in RNase/protease-free process. Characterization of the resin showed a unique porous material with 70% of the pores sizes above 300 nm. The final product isolated from anion-exchange purification in only 5 min was pure and homogenous supercoiled pDNA with no gDNA, RNA and protein contamination as confirmed with DNA electrophoresis, restriction analysis and SDS page. The resin showed a maximum binding capacity of 15.2 mg/mL and this capacity persisted after several applications of the resin. This technique is cGMP compatible and commercially viable for rapid isolation of pDNA.

Towards the design of a scalable and commercially viable technique for plasmid purification using a methacrylate monolithic stationary phase

A monolithic stationary phase was prepared via free radical co-polymerization of ethylene glycol dimethacrylate (EDMA) and glycidyl methacrylate (GMA) with pore diameter tailored specifically for plasmid binding, retention and elution. The polymer was functionalized. with 2-chloro-N,N-diethylethylamine hydrochloride (DEAE-Cl) for anion-exchange purification of plasmid DNA (pDNA) from clarified lysate obtained from E. coli DH5α-pUC19 culture in a ribonuclease/ protease-free environment. Characterization of the monolithic resin showed a porous material, with 68% of the pores existing in the matrix having diameters above 300 nm. The final product isolated from a single-stage 5 min anion-exchange purification was a pure and homogeneous supercoiled (SC) pDNA with no gDNA, RNA and protein contamination as confirmed by ethidium bromide agarose gel electrophoresis (EtBr-AGE), enzyme restriction analysis and sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. This non-toxic technique is cGMP compatible and highly scalable for production of pDNA on a commercial level.

Synthesis of novel interlocked architectures in solution and solid phase

Mechanically interlocked molecules, such as catenanes and rotaxanes, are fascinating due to their unique sensing and catalytic properties and their potential to act as molecular motors or switches. Traditionally their synthesis has been laborious and expensive, however this research project endeavoured to overcome this challenge by exploring novel ways of preparing mechanically interlocked molecules both in solution and on surfaces. A series of disulfide-linked macrocycles, [2]catenanes and [2]rotaxanes were synthesised in solution using reversible dynamic covalent chemistry. Subsequently, the interlocked architectures were adapted into solid-tethered systems via attachment to swelling polystyrene resins.

A survey: Error control methods used in bio-cryptography

Integration of biometrics is considered as an attractive solution for the issues associated with password based human authentication as well as for secure storage and release of cryptographic keys which is one of the critical issues associated with modern cryptography. However, the widespread popularity of bio-cryptographic solutions are somewhat restricted by the fuzziness associated with biometric measurements. Therefore, error control mechanisms must be adopted to make sure that fuzziness of biometric inputs can be sufficiently countered. In this paper, we have outlined such existing techniques used in bio-cryptography while explaining how they are deployed in different types of solutions. Finally, we have elaborated on the important facts to be considered when choosing appropriate error correction mechanisms for a particular biometric based solution.

Investment strategies in retirees' decumulation phase

This thesis consists of three studies on investment strategies for Australian retirees. Specifically, it investigates retirees' preference between alternative drawdown strategies in the presence of government pensions, appropriate management of longevity risk through the use of deferred annuities and asset allocation in retirement. It finds drawdown strategies linked to life expectancy to be the best performers. Deferred annuities are found to improve retirement incomes for risk averse retirees. For retirees who want to meet certain wealth thresholds in retirement, equity dominated portfolios provide superior outcomes for higher threshold levels.