Latin America and the Caribbean in 2011 and Beyond: A conversation among Latin America and Caribbean Specialists.

For the first time in more than fifty years, the domestic and external conflicts in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are not primarily ideological in nature. Democracy continues to thrive and its promise still inspires hope. In contrast, the illegal production, consumption, and trading of drugs – and its links to criminal gangs and organizations – represent major challenges to the region, undermining several States’ already weak capacity to govern. While LAC macroeconomic stability has remained resilient, illegal economies fill the region, often offering what some States have not historically been able to provide – elements of human security, opportunities for social mobility, and basic survival. Areas controlled by drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) are now found in Central America, Mexico, and the favelas of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, reflecting their competition for land routes and production areas. Cartels such as La Familia, Los Zetas, and Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC-Brazil), among others, operate like trade and financial enterprises that manage millions of dollars and resources, demonstrating significant business skills in adapting to changing circumstances. They are also merciless in their application of violence to preserve their lucrative enterprises. The El Salvador-Guatemala-Honduras triangle in Central America is now the most violent region in the world, surpassing regions in Africa that have been torn by civil strife for years. In Brazil’s favelas and Guatemala’s Petén region, the military is leaving the barracks again; not to rule, however, but to supplement and even replace the law enforcement capacity of weak and discredited police forces. This will challenge the military to apply lessons learned during the course of their experience in government, or from the civil wars that plagued the region for nearly 50 years during the Cold War. Will they be able to conduct themselves according to the professional ethics that have been inculcated over the past 20 years without incurring violations of human rights? Belief in their potential to do good is high according to many polls as the Armed Forces still enjoy a favorable perception in most societies, despite frequent involvement in corruption. Calling them to fight DTOs, however, may bring them too close to the illegal activities they are being asked to resist, or even rekindle the view that only a “strong hand” can resolve national troubles. The challenge of governance is occurring as contrasts within the region are becoming sharper. There is an increasing gap between nations positioned to surpass their “developing nation” status and those that are practically imploding as the judicial, political and enforcement institutions fall further into the quagmire of illicit activities. Several South American nations are advancing their political and economic development. Brazil in particular has realized macro-economic stability, made impressive gains in poverty reduction, and is on track to potentially become a significant oil producer. It is also an increasingly influential power, much closer to the heralded “emerging power” category that it aspired to for most of the 20th century. In contrast, several Central American States have become so structurally deficient, and have garnered such limited legitimacy, that their countries have devolved into patches of State controlled and non-State-controlled territory, becoming increasingly vulnerable to DTO entrenchment. In the Caribbean, the drug and human trafficking business also thrives. Small and larger countries are experiencing the growing impact of illicit economies and accompanying crime and violence. Among these, Guyana and Suriname face greater uncertainty, as they juggle both their internal affairs and their relations with Brazil and Venezuela. Cuba also faces new challenges as it continues focusing on internal rather than external affairs and attempts to ensure a stable leadership succession while simultaneously trying to reform its economy. Loosening the regime’s tight grip on the economy while continuing to curtail citizen’s civil rights will test the leadership’s ability to manage change and prevent a potential socio-economic crisis from turning into an existential threat. Cuba’s past ideological zest is now in the hands of Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez, who continues his attempts to bring the region together under Venezuelan leadership ideologically based on a “Bolivarian” anti-U.S. banner, without much success. The environment and natural disasters will merit more attention in the coming years. Natural events will produce increasing scales of destruction as the States in the region fail to maintain and expand existing infrastructure to withstand such calamities and respond to their effects. Prospects for earthquakes, tsunamis, and hurricanes are high, particularly in the Caribbean. In addition, there are growing rates of deforestation in nearly every country, along with a potential increase in cross-sector competition for resources. The losers might be small farmers, due to their inability to produce quantities commensurate to larger conglomerates. Regulations that could mitigate these types of situations are lacking or openly violated with near impunity. Indigenous and other vulnerable populations, including African descendants, in several Andean countries, are particularly affected by the increasing extraction of natural resources taking place amongst their terrain. This has led to protests against extraction activities that negatively affect their livelihoods, and in the process, these historically underprivileged groups have transitioned from agenda-based organization to one that is bringing its claims and grievances to the national political agenda, becoming more politically engaged. Symptomatic of these social issues is the region’s chronically poor quality of education that has consistently failed to reduce inequality and prepare new generations for jobs in the competitive global economy, particularly the more vulnerable populations. Simultaneously, the educational deficit is also exacerbated by the erosion of access to information and freedom of the press. The international panorama is also in flux. New security entities are challenging the old establishment. The Union of South American Nations, The South American Defense Council, the socialist Bolivarian Alliance, and other entities seem to be defying the Organization of American States and its own defense mechanisms, and excluding the U.S. And the U.S.’s attention to areas in conflict, namely Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan – rather than to the more stable Latin America and Caribbean – has left ample room for other actors to elbow in. China is now the top trading partner for Brazil. Russian and Iran are also finding new partnerships in the region, yet their links appear more politically inclined than those of China. Finally, the aforementioned increasing commercial ties by LAC States with China have accelerated a return to the preponderance of commodities as sources of income for their economies. The increased extraction of raw material for export will produce greater concern over the environmental impact that is created by the exploitation of natural resources. These expanded trade opportunities may prove counterproductive economically for countries in the region, particularly for Brazil and Chile, two countries whose economic policies have long sought diversification from dependence on commodities to the development of service and technology based industries.

Malaria prevention in north-eastern Tanzania: patterns of expenditure and determinants of demand at the household level.

Objective. This study aims to provide a better understanding of the amounts spent on different malaria prevention products and the determinants of these expenditures. Methods. 1,601 households were interviewed about their expenditure on malaria mosquito nets in the past five years, net re-treatments in the past six months and other expenditures prevention in the past two weeks. Simple random sampling was used to select villages and streets while convenience sampling was used to select households. Expenditure was compared across bed nets, aerosols, coils, indoor spraying, using smoke, drinking herbs and cleaning outside environment. Findings. 68% of households owned at least one bed net and 27% had treated their nets in the past six months. 29% were unable to afford a net. Every fortnight, households spent an average of US $0.18 on nets and their treatment, constituting about 47% of total prevention expenditure. Sprays, repellents and coils made up 50% of total fortnightly expenditure (US$0.21). Factors positively related to expenditure were household wealth, years of education of household head, household head being married and rainy season. Poor quality roads and living in a rural area had a negative impact on expenditure. Conclusion. Expenditure on bed nets and on alternative malaria prevention products was comparable. Poor households living in rural areas spend significantly less on all forms of malaria prevention compared to their richer counterparts. Breaking the cycle between malaria and poverty is one of the biggest challenges facing malaria control programmes in Africa.

The Use of Agricultural Chemicals and Mosquito Response to Pyrethroids in Bungoma Sub-county,Western Kenya

Insecticide treated bed nets and indoor residual spraying are the most widely used vector control methods in Africa. The World Health Organization now recommends four classes of insecticides for use against adult mosquitoes in public health programs. Of these four classes of insecticides, pyrethroids have become the insecticides of choice in treating mosquito bed nets and in the use of indoor spraying to prevent malaria transmission. Pyrethroids are not only used in malaria control but also in agriculture to protect against pest insects. This concurrent use of pyrethroids in vector control and protection of crops from pests in agriculture may exert selection pressure on mosquito larval population and induce resistance to this class of insecticides. The main objective of our study was to explore the role of agricultural chemicals and the response of mosquitoes to pyrethroids in an area of high malaria transmission.

We used a cross-sectional study design. This was a two-step study involving both mosquitoes and human subjects. In this study, we collected larvae growing in breeding sites affected by different agricultural practices. We used purposive sampling to identify active mosquito breeding sites and then interviewed households adjacent to those breeding sites to learn about their agricultural practices that might influence the response of mosquitoes to pyrethroids. We also performed secondary analysis of larval data from a previous case-control study by Obala et al.

Q Fever, Scrub Typhus, and Rickettsial Diseases in Children, Kenya, 2011-2012.

To increase knowledge of undifferentiated fevers in Kenya, we tested paired serum samples from febrile children in western Kenya for antibodies against pathogens increasingly recognized to cause febrile illness in Africa. Of patients assessed, 8.9%, 22.4%, 1.1%, and 3.6% had enhanced seroreactivity to Coxiella burnetii, spotted fever group rickettsiae, typhus group rickettsiae, and scrub typhus group orientiae, respectively.

Model simulation output data (CCSM3) related to uplift of Africa and Himalaya/Tibet Plateau and the influence on tropical African vegetation

Hominid evolution in the late Miocene has long been hypothesized to be linked to the retreat of the tropical rainforest in Africa. One cause for the climatic and vegetation change often considered was uplift of Africa, but also uplift of the Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau was suggested to have impacted rainfall distribution over Africa. Recent proxy data suggest that in East Africa open grassland habitats were available to the common ancestors of hominins and apes long before their divergence and do not find evidence for a closed rainforest in the late Miocene. We used the coupled global general circulation model CCSM3 including an interactively coupled dynamic vegetation module to investigate the impact of topography on African hydro-climate and vegetation. We performed sensitivity experiments altering elevations of the Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau as well as of East and Southern Africa. The simulations confirm the dominant impact of African topography for climate and vegetation development of the African tropics. Only a weak influence of prescribed Asian uplift on African climate could be detected. The model simulations show that rainforest coverage of Central Africa is strongly determined by the presence of elevated African topography. In East Africa, despite wetter conditions with lowered African topography, the conditions were not favorable enough to maintain a closed rainforest. A discussion of the results with respect to other model studies indicates a minor importance of vegetation-atmosphere or ocean-atmosphere feedbacks and a large dependence of the simulated vegetation response on the land surface/vegetation model.

Understandings of transnational families in debates on Migration and development

International migration sets in motion a range of significant transnational processes that connect countries and people. How migration interacts with development and how policies might promote and enhance such interactions have, since the turn of the millennium, gained attention on the international agenda. The recognition that transnational practices connect migrants and their families across sending and receiving societies forms part of this debate. The ways in which policy debate employs and understands transnational family ties nevertheless remain underexplored. This article sets out to discern the understandings of the family in two (often intermingled) debates concerned with transnational interactions: The largely state and policydriven discourse on the potential benefits of migration on economic development, and the largely academic transnational family literature focusing on issues of care and the micro-politics of gender and generation. Emphasizing the relation between diverse migration-development dynamics and specific family positions, we ask whether an analytical point of departure in respective transnational motherhood, fatherhood or childhood is linked to emphasizing certain outcomes. We conclude by sketching important strands of inclusions and exclusions of family matters in policy discourse and suggest ways to better integrate a transnational family perspective in global migration-development policy.

Mathematical Modeling to Assess the Drivers of the Recent Emergence of Typhoid Fever in Blantyre, Malawi

BACKGROUND: Multiyear epidemics of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi have been reported from countries across eastern and southern Africa in recent years. In Blantyre, Malawi, a dramatic increase in typhoid fever cases has recently occurred, and may be linked to the emergence of the H58 haplotype. Strains belonging to the H58 haplotype often exhibit multidrug resistance and may have a fitness advantage relative to other Salmonella Typhi strains.

METHODS: To explore hypotheses for the increased number of typhoid fever cases in Blantyre, we fit a mathematical model to culture-confirmed cases of Salmonella enterica infections at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre. We explored 4 hypotheses: (1) an increase in the basic reproductive number (R0) in response to increasing population density; (2) a decrease in the incidence of cross-immunizing infection with Salmonella Enteritidis; (3) an increase in the duration of infectiousness due to failure to respond to first-line antibiotics; and (4) an increase in the transmission rate following the emergence of the H58 haplotype.

RESULTS: Increasing population density or decreasing cross-immunity could not fully explain the observed pattern of typhoid emergence in Blantyre, whereas models allowing for an increase in the duration of infectiousness and/or the transmission rate of typhoid following the emergence of the H58 haplotype provided a good fit to the data.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that an increase in the transmissibility of typhoid due to the emergence of drug resistance associated with the H58 haplotype may help to explain recent outbreaks of typhoid in Malawi and similar settings in Africa.

Clinical Outcomes in 3343 Children and Adults with Rheumatic Heart Disease from 14 Low and Middle Income Countries: 2-Year Follow-up of the Global Rheumatic Heart Disease Registry (the REMEDY study)

BACKGROUND: -There are few contemporary data on the mortality and morbidity associated with rheumatic heart disease (RHD) or information on their predictors. We report the two year follow-up of individuals with RHD from 14 low and middle income countries in Africa and Asia.

METHODS: -Between January 2010 and November 2012, we enrolled 3343 patients from 25 centers in 14 countries and followed them for two years to assess mortality, congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA), recurrent acute rheumatic fever (ARF), and infective endocarditis (IE).

RESULTS: -Vital status at 24 months was known for 2960 (88.5%) patients. Two thirds were female. Although patients were young (median age 28 years, interquartile range 18 to 40), the two year case fatality rate was high (500 deaths, 16.9%). Mortality rate was 116.3/1000 patient-years in the first year and 65.4/1000 patient-years in the second year. Median age at death was 28.7 years. Independent predictors of death were severe valve disease (hazard ratio (HR) 2.36, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.80-3.11), CHF (HR 2.16, 95% CI 1.70-2.72), New York Heart Association functional class III/IV (HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.32-2.10), atrial fibrillation (AF) (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.10-1.78) and older age (HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.02 per year increase) at enrolment. Post-primary education (HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.54-0.85) and female sex (HR 0.65, 95%CI 0.52-0.80) were associated with lower risk of death. 204 (6.9%) had new CHF (incidence, 38.42/1000 patient-years), 46 (1.6%) had a stroke or TIA (8.45/1000 patient-years), 19 (0.6%) had ARF (3.49/1000 patient-years), and 20 (0.7%) had IE (3.65/1000 patient-years). Previous stroke and older age were independent predictors of stroke/TIA or systemic embolism. Patients from low and lower-middle income countries had significantly higher age- and sex-adjusted mortality compared to patients from upper-middle income countries. Valve surgery was significantly more common in upper-middle income than in lower-middle- or low-income countries.

CONCLUSIONS: -Patients with clinical RHD have high mortality and morbidity despite being young; those from low and lower-middle income countries had a poorer prognosis associated with advanced disease and low education. Programs focused on early detection and treatment of clinical RHD are required to improve outcomes.

Cape Verde: Dimensions in Nation-Building

Th is article seeks to analyze, in a socio-historical perspective, the formation of the Nation in Cape Verde. It argues that the archipelago took a singular path in Nation-building in Africa, through a combination of diff erent dimensions: social, geographical, political and religious, educational, administrative and literary. It is particularly important to understand these dimensions, since the Cape Verdean Nation precedes in centuries the creation of the independent State. Th is route was accompanied by the social mobilization of the mestizo, who, since the end of the 16th century, has been the main subject in the history of the archipelago.

A Systematic Review of Entrepreneurship Education Literature in Nigeria: Where is the Focus of Research?

Purpose- Entrepreneurship education (EEd) plays a crucial role in the development of entrepreneurs and the enhancement of entrepreneurial activities in every economy. This paper examined what Higher education Institutions (HEIs) do in learning and teaching of entrepreneurship in general and how entrepreneurship development takes place in Nigerian HEIs. The outcome from this study will enable a deeper understanding on what HEIs do EEd, with more exposure as to what the areas and focus of research is in the Nigerian context. Design/methodology/approach- The study adopted a systematic literature review approach- drawing from a computerized search of five selected data bases, using predetermined key words by the researchers. Findings: The main finding of this paper is that, related concepts like skills, intention, drive and attitude have been use in expounding discussions on the outcome of EEd, but very little has been written on entrepreneurial mind-set (EMS), of which other studies have suggested that it’s a crucial point in the journey of an entrepreneurs (Reed & Stoltz, 2011; Quality Assurance Agency for Higher Education (QAA), 2012; Neneh, 2012). Furthermore, learning and teaching of entrepreneurship in Nigerian HEIs seems to be more on creating awareness (about entrepreneurship) than actual preparation for entrepreneurship (For entrepreneurship). Research limitations/implications- The paper is limited since it is based on a review of literature from a selected databases- covering a specific time span. This potentially excludes other studies outside this time span. A more comprehensive overview of these contributions would benefit from employing tools such as Google Scholar, for an overview of the sub–domains online. Originality/value – There are limited studies that focus on the issue of entrepreneurial mind-set in entrepreneurship education in Africa, specifically Nigeria. This paper and its focus in particular, have laid down pioneering ground work for research on entrepreneurial mind-set development in Nigerian entrepreneurship education.

Investigating the role of glutathione and glutathione biosynthetic genes in the adaptation of Anopheles gambiae to insecticides

Malaria remains a serious public health challenge in the tropical world, with 584,000 deaths globally in 2013, of which 90% occurred in Africa, and mostly in pregnant women and children under the age of five. Anopheles gambiae (An. gambiae) is the principal malaria vector in Africa, where vector control measures involve the use of insecticides in the forms of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS). The development of insecticides resistance mitigates these approaches. Glutathione (GSH) is widely distributed among all living organisms, and is associated with detoxification pathways, especially the Glutathione S-transferases (GSTs). Its direct involvement and relevance in insecticide resistance in An. gambiae has not been determined. Thus, this work examines the contribution of GSH, its biosynthetic genes (GCLM, GCLC) and their possible transcriptional regulator Nrf2 in insecticide resistance in An. gambiae sampled from agricultural setting (areas of intensive agriculture) and residential setting (domestic area). Bioinformatics analysis, W.H.O. adult susceptibility bioassays and molecular techniques were employed to investigate. Total RNA was first isolated from the adults An. gambiae mosquitoes raised from agricultural and residential field-caught larvae which had been either challenged or unchallenged with insecticides. Semi-quantitative RT-PCR using gel image densitometry was used to determine the expression levels of GCLM, GCLC genes and Nrf2. Bioinformatics’ results established the presence of putative AGAP010259 (AhR) and AGAP005300 (Nf2e1) transcription factor binding sites in An. gambiae GCLC and GCLM promoters in silico. An. gambiae s.l. studied here were highly resistant to DDT and permethrin but less resistant to bendiocarb. Both knockdown resistance (kdr) mutation variants L1014S and L1014F that confers resistance to pyrethroid insecticides were identified in both An. coluzzii and An. arabiensis sampled from northern Nigeria. The L1014F was much associated with An. coluzzii. A significant positive correlation (P=0.04) between the frequency of the L1014F point mutation and resistance to DDT and permethrin was observed. However, a weak or non-significant correlation (P=0.772) between the frequency of the L1014S point mutation and resistance was also found. L1014S and L1014F mutations co-occurred in both agricultural and residential settings with high frequencies. However, the frequencies of the two mutations were greater in the agricultural settings than in the residential settings. The levels of total, reduced and oxidized GSH were significantly higher in mosquitoes from agricultural sites than those from residential sites. Increased oxidized GSH levels appears to correlate with higher DDT resistance. The expression levels of GCLM, GCLC and Nrf2 were also significantly up-regulated in adults An. gambiae raised from agricultural and residential field-caught larvae when challenged with insecticide. However, there was higher constitutive expression of GCLM, GCLC and Nrf2 in mosquitoes from agricultural setting. The increased expression levels of these genes and also GSH levels in this population suggest their roles in the response and adaptation of An. gambiae to insecticide challenges. There exists the feasibility of using GSH status in An. gambiae to monitor adaptation and resistance to insecticides.

Proximate composition and mineral contents of pebbly fish, Alestes baremoze (Joannis, 1835) fillets in relation to fish size

Alestes baremoze (Joannis, 1835), locally known as Angara in Uganda, is native to fresh water systems in Africa, thriving well in both lacustrine and riverine conditions. It is part of the routine diets of families in northern Uganda, South Sudan, the Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The objective of this study was to determine the proximate composition and mineral contents of A. baremoze fillets according to fish size. The mineral contents of A. baremoze from Lake Albert were analysed using standard procedures. The fish samples were categorised into three size-groups; <1 kg (880–990g), 1-1.5 kg and 1.6-2.5 kg. On wet weight basis, there were no significant differences (p>0.05) in crude protein and ash content among the different fish sizes. However, there were significant differences (p<0.05) in crude fat, carbohydrate, gross energy and vitamin A. Crude fat (0.35%), carbohydrate (0.37%) and gross energy (597.6 Kcal/100 g) were significantly higher in medium sized fish (1 to 1.5 kg) compared with the larger fish category. Vitamin A contents of different fish sizes ranged from 55.1 to75.3 μg RAE/100g. The contents of magnesium and iron were highest in sizes <1 kg (5.34 mg/100 g) and (3.58 mg/100 g), respectively. It was observed that potassium content (339.33 mg/100 g) and calcium (29.75 mg/100 g) were significantly higher (p<0.05) in fish >1.5 kg. These findings suggest that taste, freshness and other related external appearances should not be the only factors to be considered in making choice for marketing and consumption of Alestes baremoze.

The state and known impacts of fish species transferred to or within continental Africa

Fish introductions have been made from small fish ponds to the largest lakes in Africa. The primary intent of these introductions has been to sustain or increase fish production, although some introductions have been made to develop sport fisheries and to control unwanted organisms. Some of these introductions have fulfilled their objective in the short term, but several of these "successful" introductions have created uncertainties about their long term sustainability. Lates niloticus, Oreochromis niloticus, O. leucostictus, Tilapia melanopleura and T. zilli were introduced into lakes Victoria and Kyoga in 1950s and early 1960s. By the 1980s O. niloticus and O. niloticus dominated the fisheries of these lakes, virtually eliminating a number of endemic fish species. The loss of genetic diversity of the fish in the worlds second largest lake has also been accompanied by a loss of trophic diversity. The transformation of the fish community has, in Lake Victoria coincided with a profound eutrophication (algal blooms, fish kills, hypolimnetic anoxia) which might be related to alterations of the lake's food-web structure. In contrast, the introduction of a planktivore, Limnothrissa miodon into Lake Kivu and the Kariba reservoir has established highly successful fisheries with little documented effect on the pre-existing fish community or trophic ecology of the lakes. The highly endemised species-rich African Great lakes may be particularly sensitive to species introductions and require special consideration and caution when introductions are contemplated because species extinctions, introgressive hybridization and ecosystem alterations may occur following fish introductions.

Balancing Belligerents or Feeding the Beast: Transforming Conflict Traps

Since the end of the Cold War, recurring civil conflicts have been the dominant form of violent armed conflict in the world, accounting for 70% of conflicts active between 2000-2013. Duration and intensity of episodes within recurring conflicts in Africa exhibit four behaviors characteristic of archetypal dynamic system structures. The overarching questions asked in this study are whether these patterns are robustly correlated with fundamental concepts of resiliency in dynamic systems that scale from micro-to macro levels; are they consistent with theoretical risk factors and causal mechanisms; and what are the policy implications. Econometric analysis and dynamic systems modeling of 36 conflicts in Africa between 1989 -2014 are combined with process tracing in a case study of Somalia to evaluate correlations between state characteristics, peace operations and foreign aid on the likelihood of observed conflict patterns, test hypothesized causal mechanisms across scales, and develop policy recommendations for increasing human security while decreasing resiliency of belligerents. Findings are that observed conflict patterns scale from micro to macro levels; are strongly correlated with state characteristics that proxy a mix of cooperative (e.g., gender equality) and coercive (e.g., security forces) conflict-balancing mechanisms; and are weakly correlated with UN and regional peace operations and humanitarian aid. Interactions between peace operations and aid interventions that effect conflict persistence at micro levels are not seen in macro level analysis, due to interdependent, micro-level feedback mechanisms, sequencing, and lagged effects. This study finds that the dynamic system structures associated with observed conflict patterns contain tipping points between balancing mechanisms at the interface of micro-macro level interactions that are determined as much by factors related to how intervention policies are designed and implemented, as what they are. Policy implications are that reducing risk of conflict persistence requires that peace operations and aid interventions (1) simultaneously increase transparency, promote inclusivity (with emphasis on gender equality), and empower local civilian involvement in accountability measures at the local levels; (2) build bridges to horizontally and vertically integrate across levels; and (3) pave pathways towards conflict transformation mechanisms and justice that scale from the individual, to community, regional, and national levels.