982 resultados para PREDICTIONS


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We develop a systematic theory of critical quantum fluctuations in the driven parametric oscillator. Our analytic results agree well with stochastic numerical simulations. We also compare the results obtained in the positive-P representation, as a fully quantum-mechanical calculation, with the truncated Wigner phase-space equation, also known as the semiclassical theory. We show when these results agree and differ in calculations taken beyond the linearized approximation. We find that the optimal broadband noise reduction occurs just above threshold. In this region where there are large quantum fluctuations in the conjugate variance and macroscopic quantum superposition states might be expected, we find that the quantum predictions correspond very closely to the semiclassical theory.

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The three-dimensional structures of leucine-rich repeat (LRR) -containing proteins from five different families were previously predicted based on the crystal structure of the ribonuclease inhibitor. using an approach that combined homology-based modeling, structure-based sequence alignment of LRRs, and several rational assumptions. The structural models have been produced based on very limited sequence similarity, which, in general. cannot yield trustworthy predictions. Recently, the protein structures from three of these five families have been determined. In this report we estimate the quality of the modeling approach by comparing the models with the experimentally determined structures. The comparison suggests that the general architecture, curvature, interior/exterior orientations of side chains. and backbone conformation of the LRR structures can be predicted correctly. On the other hand. the analysis revealed that, in some cases. it is difficult to predict correctly the twist of the overall super-helical structure. Taking into consideration the conclusions from these comparisons, we identified a new family of bacterial LRR proteins and present its structural model. The reliability of the LRR protein modeling suggests that it would be informative to apply similar modeling approaches to other classes of solenoid proteins.

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Comparative phylogeography has proved useful for investigating biological responses to past climate change and is strongest when combined with extrinsic hypotheses derived from the fossil record or geology. However, the rarity of species with sufficient, spatially explicit fossil evidence restricts the application of this method. Here, we develop an alternative approach in which spatial models of predicted species distributions under serial paleoclimates are compared with a molecular phylogeography, in this case for a snail endemic to the rainforests of North Queensland, Australia. We also compare the phylogeography of the snail to those from several endemic vertebrates and use consilience across all of these approaches to enhance biogeographical inference for this rainforest fauna. The snail mtDNA phylogeography is consistent with predictions from paleoclimate modeling in relation to the location and size of climatic refugia through the late Pleistocene-Holocene and broad patterns of extinction and recolonization. There is general agreement between quantitative estimates of population expansion from sequence data (using likelihood and coalescent methods) vs. distributional modeling. The snail phylogeography represents a composite of both common and idiosyncratic patterns seen among vertebrates, reflecting the geographically finer scale of persistence and subdivision in the snail. In general, this multifaceted approach, combining spatially explicit paleoclimatological models and comparative phylogeography, provides a powerful approach to locating historical refugia and understanding species' responses to them.

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Theory predicts that in small isolated populations random genetic drift can lead to phenotypic divergence; however this prediction has rarely been tested quantitatively in natural populations. Here we utilize natural repeated island colonization events by members of the avian species complex, Zosterops lateralis, to assess whether or not genetic drift alone is an adequate explanation for the observed patterns of microevolutionary divergence in morphology. Morphological and molecular genetic characteristics of island and mainland populations are compared to test three predictions of drift theory: (1) that the pattern of morphological change is idiosyncratic to each island; (2) that there is concordance between morphological and neutral genetic shifts across island populations; and (3) for populations whose time of colonization is known, that the rate of morphological change is sufficiently slow to be accounted for solely by genetic drift. Our results are not consistent with these predictions. First, the direction of size shifts was consistently towards larger size, suggesting the action of a nonrandom process. Second, patterns of morphological divergence among recently colonized populations showed little concordance with divergence in neutral genetic characters. Third, rate tests of morphological change showed that effective population sizes were not small enough for random processes alone to account for the magnitude of microevolutionary change. Altogether, these three lines of evidence suggest that drift alone is not an adequate explanation of morphological differentiation in recently colonized island Zosterops and therefore we suggest that the observed microevolutionary changes are largely a result of directional natural selection.

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Eucalyptus savannas on low nutrient soils are being extensively cleared in Queensland. In this paper we provide background information relevant to understanding nutrient (particularly nitrogen) dynamics in sub/tropical savanna, and review the available evidence relevant to understanding the potential impact of clearing Eucalyptus savanna on nutrient relations. The limited evidence presently available can be used to argue for the extreme positions that: (i) woody vegetation competes with grasses Cor resources. and tree/shrub clearing improves pasture production, (ii) woody vegetation benefits pasture production. At present, the lack of fundamental knowledge about Australian savanna nutrient relations makes accurate predictions about medium- and long-term effects of clearing on nutrient relations in low nutrient savannas difficult. The future of cleared savannas will differ if herbaceous species maintain all functions that woody vegetation has previously held, or if woody species have functions distinct from those of herbaceous vegetation. Research suggests that savanna soils are susceptible to nitrate leaching, and that trees improve the nutrient status of savanna soils in some situations. The nitrogen capital of cleared savanna is at risk if mobile ions are not captured efficiently by the vegetation. and nitrogen input via N-2 fixation from vegetation and microbiotic crusts is reduced. In order to predict clearing effects on savanna nutrient relations, research should be directed to answering (i) how open or closed nutrient cycles are in natural and cleared savanna, (ii) which functions are performed by savanna constituents such as woody and herbaceous vegetation, native and exotic plant species. termites, and microbiotic 7 crusts in relation to nutrient cycles. In the absence of detailed knowledge about savanna functioning, clearing carries the risk of promoting continuous nutrient depiction.

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We demonstrate that the time-dependent projected Gross-Pitaevskii equation (GPE) derived earlier [M. J. Davis, R. J. Ballagh, and K. Burnett, J. Phys. B 34, 4487 (2001)] can represent the highly occupied modes of a homogeneous, partially-condensed Bose gas. Contrary to the often held belief that the GPE is valid only at zero temperature, we find that this equation will evolve randomized initial wave functions to a state describing thermal equilibrium. In the case of small interaction strengths or low temperatures, our numerical results can be compared to the predictions of Bogoliubov theory and its perturbative extensions. This demonstrates the validity of the GPE in these limits and allows us to assign a temperature to the simulations unambiguously. However, the GPE method is nonperturbative, and we believe it can be used to describe the thermal properties of a Bose gas even when Bogoliubov theory fails. We suggest a different technique to measure the temperature of our simulations in these circumstances. Using this approach we determine the dependence of the condensate fraction and specific heat on temperature for several interaction strengths, and observe the appearance of vortex networks. Interesting behavior near the critical point is observed and discussed.

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We show how polarization measurements on the output fields generated by parametric down conversion will reveal a violation of multiparticle Bell inequalities, in the regime of both low- and high-output intensity. In this case, each spatially separated system, upon which a measurement is performed, is comprised of more than one particle. In view of the formal analogy with spin systems, the proposal provides an opportunity to test the predictions of quantum mechanics for spatially separated higher spin states. Here the quantum behavior possible even where measurements are performed on systems of large quantum (particle) number may be demonstrated. Our proposal applies to both vacuum-state signal and idler inputs, and also to the quantum-injected parametric amplifier as studied by De Martini The effect of detector inefficiencies is included, and weaker Bell-Clauser-Horne inequalities are derived to enable realistic tests of local hidden variables with auxiliary assumptions for the multiparticle situation.

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Observations of an insect's movement lead to theory on the insect's flight behaviour and the role of movement in the species' population dynamics. This theory leads to predictions of the way the population changes in time under different conditions. If a hypothesis on movement predicts a specific change in the population, then the hypothesis can be tested against observations of population change. Routine pest monitoring of agricultural crops provides a convenient source of data for studying movement into a region and among fields within a region. Examples of the use of statistical and computational methods for testing hypotheses with such data are presented. The types of questions that can be addressed with these methods and the limitations of pest monitoring data when used for this purpose are discussed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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The biological reactions during the settling and decant periods of Sequencing Batch Reactors (SBRs) are generally ignored as they are not easily measured or described by modelling approaches. However, important processes are taking place, and in particular when the influent is fed into the bottom of the reactor at the same time (one of the main features of the UniFed process), the inclusion of these stages is crucial for accurate process predictions. Due to the vertical stratification of both liquid and solid components, a one-dimensional hydraulic model is combined with a modified ASM2d biological model to allow the prediction of settling velocity, sludge concentration, soluble components and biological processes during the non-mixed periods of the SBR. The model is calibrated on a full-scale UniFed SBR system with tracer breakthrough tests, depth profiles of particulate and soluble compounds and measurements of the key components during the mixed aerobic period. This model is then validated against results from an independent experimental period with considerably different operating parameters. In both cases, the model is able to accurately predict the stratification and most of the biological reactions occurring in the sludge blanket and the supernatant during the non-mixed periods. Together with a correct description of the mixed aerobic period, a good prediction of the overall SBR performance can be achieved.

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In this paper an approach to extreme event control in wastewater treatment plant operation by use of automatic supervisory control is discussed. The framework presented is based on the fact that different operational conditions manifest themselves as clusters in a multivariate measurement space. These clusters are identified and linked to specific and corresponding events by use of principal component analysis and fuzzy c-means clustering. A reduced system model is assigned to each type of extreme event and used to calculate appropriate local controller set points. In earlier work we have shown that this approach is applicable to wastewater treatment control using look-up tables to determine current set points. In this work we focus on the automatic determination of appropriate set points by use of steady state and dynamic predictions. The performance of a relatively simple steady-state supervisory controller is compared with that of a model predictive supervisory controller. Also, a look-up table approach is included in the comparison, as it provides a simple and robust alternative to the steady-state and model predictive controllers, The methodology is illustrated in a simulation study.

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The bulk free radical copolymerization of 2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate (HEMA) with N-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone (VP) was carried out to low conversions at 50 degreesC, using benzoyl peroxide (BPO) as initiator. The compositions of the copolymers; were determined using C-13 NMR spectroscopy. The conversion of monomers to polymers was studied using FT-NIR spectroscopy in order to predict the extent of conversion of monomer to polymer. From model fits to the composition data, a statistical F-test revealed that die penultimate model describes die copolymerization better than die terminal model. Reactivity ratios were calculated by using a non-linear least squares analysis (NLLS) and r(H) = 8.18 and r(V) = 0.097 were found to be the best fit values of the reactivity ratios for the terminal model and r(HH) = 12.0, r(VH) = 2.20, r(VV) = 0.12 and r(HV) = 0.03 for the penultimate model. Predictions were made for changes in compositions as a function of conversion based upon the terminal and penultimate models.

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The dynamic theological behaviour of gamma-irradiated 12.8 wt% poly(vinyl alcohol) (PVA), 12.8 wt% poly(vinyl pyrrolidone) (PVP), and a blend of 8 wt% PVA and 4.8 wt% PVP aqueous solutions have been studied pre- and post-gelation. The non-irradiated solutions displayed theological behaviour typical of dilute to semi-dilute polymer solutions, with the complex viscosity being independent of the frequency and shear rate (i.e. Newtonian behaviour) over the range of frequencies tested and the loss modulus G(omega) and storage modulus G(omega) being nearly proportional to omega and omega(2) respectively. After a set of doses of gamma-radiation, the magnitudes of the dynamic moduli G'(omega) and G(omega) increased as the absorbed dose increased, with notable differences between the two homopolymers and the blend. The stages of gelation were effectively monitored by means of dynamic theological measurements, allowing the possible mechanisms of network formation to be elucidated. The doses required for gelation of the PVA, PVP, and blend samples, determined on the basis of the Winter and Chambon criteria for gelation, were found to be 12 kGy for the 12.8 wt% PVA, 4 kGy for the 12.8 wt% PVP, and 5 kGy for the 8 wt% PVA/4.8 wt% PVP solutions. The unexpected lower gelation dose demonstrated by the blend sample, compared with predictions based on the blend composition, and the associated gelation mechanism are also discussed.

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Study Design. Two abdominal muscle patterns were tested in the same group of individuals, and their effects were compared in relation to sacroiliac joint laxity. One pattern was contraction of the transversus abdominis, Independently of the other abdominals; the other was a bracing action that used all the lateral abdominal muscles. Objectives. To demonstrate the biomechanical effect of the exercise for the transversus abdominis known to be effective in low back pain. Summary of Background Data. Drawing in the abdominal wall is a specific exercise for the transversus abdominis muscle (in cocontraction with the multifidus), which is used in the treatment of back pain. Clinical effectiveness has been demonstrated to be a reduction of 3-year recurrence from 75% to 35%. To the authors' best knowledge, there is not yet in vivo proof of the biomechanical effect of this specific exercise. This study of a biomechanical model on the mechanics of the sacroiliac joint, however, predicted a significant effect of transversus abdominis muscle force. Methods. Thirteen healthy individuals who could perform the test patterns were included. Sacroiliac joint laxity values were recorded with study participants in the prone position during the two abdominal muscle patterns. The values were recorded by means of Doppler Imaging of vibrations. Simultaneous electromyographic recordings and ultrasound imaging were used to verify the two muscle patterns. Results. The range of sacroiliac joint laxity values observed in this study was comparable with levels found in earlier studies of healthy individuals. These values decreased significantly in all individuals during both muscle patterns (P < 0.001). The independent transversus abdominis contraction decreased sacroiliac joint laxity (or rather increased sacroiliac joint stiffness) to a significantly greater degree than the general abdominal exercise pat-tern (P < 0.0260). Conclusions. Contraction of the transversus abdominis significantly decreases the laxity of the sacroiliac joint. This decrease in laxity is larger than that caused by a bracing action using all the lateral abdominal muscles. These findings are in line with the authors' biomechanical model predictions and support the use of independent transversus abdominis contractions for the treatment of low back pain.

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Given the importance of protein complexes as therapeutic targets, it is necessary to understand the physical chemistry of these interactions under the crowded conditions that exist in cells. We have used sedimentation equilibrium to quantify the enhancement of the reversible homodimerization of alpha-chymotrypsin by high concentrations of the osmolytes glucose, sucrose, and raffinose. In an attempt to rationalize the ostuolyte-mediated stabilization of the a-chymotrypsin homodimer, we have used models based on binding interactions (transfer-free energy analysis) and steric interactions (excluded volume theory) to predict the stabilization. Although transfer-free energy analysis predicts reasonably well the relatively small stabilization observed for complex formation between cytochrome c and cytochrome c peroxidase, as well as that between bobtail quail lysozyme and a monoclonal Fab fragment, it underestimates the sugar-mediated stabilization of the alpha-chymotrypsin dimer. Although predictions based on excluded volume theory overestimate the stabilization, it would seem that a major determinant in the observed stabilization of the a-chymotrypsin homodimer is the thermodynamic nonideality arising from molecular crowding by the three small sugars.

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The conventional convection-dispersion model is widely used to interrelate hepatic availability (F) and clearance (Cl) with the morphology and physiology of the liver and to predict effects such as changes in liver blood flow on F and Cl. The extension of this model to include nonlinear kinetics and zonal heterogeneity of the liver is not straightforward and requires numerical solution of partial differential equation, which is not available in standard nonlinear regression analysis software. In this paper, we describe an alternative compartmental model representation of hepatic disposition (including elimination). The model allows the use of standard software for data analysis and accurately describes the outflow concentration-time profile for a vascular marker after bolus injection into the liver. In an evaluation of a number of different compartmental models, the most accurate model required eight vascular compartments, two of them with back mixing. In addition, the model includes two adjacent secondary vascular compartments to describe the tail section of the concentration-time profile for a reference marker. The model has the added flexibility of being easy to modify to model various enzyme distributions and nonlinear elimination. Model predictions of F, MTT, CV2, and concentration-time profile as well as parameter estimates for experimental data of an eliminated solute (palmitate) are comparable to those for the extended convection-dispersion model.