Estimation of a Regression Function on a Point Process and its Application to Financial Ruin Risk Forecast

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 60G55; secondary 60G25.

Falls Among The Elderly: Risk Factors In A Population-based Study.

The aim of the present study was to identify factors associated with the occurrence of falls among elderly adults in a population-based study (ISACamp 2008). A population-based cross-sectional study was carried out with two-stage cluster sampling. The sample was composed of 1,520 elderly adults living in the urban area of the city of Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil. The occurrence of falls was analyzed based on reports of the main accident occurred in the previous 12 months. Data on socioeconomic/demographic factors and adverse health conditions were tested for possible associations with the outcome. Prevalence ratios (PR) were estimated and adjusted for gender and age using the Poisson multiple regression analysis. Falls were more frequent, after adjustment for gender and age, among female elderly participants (PR = 2.39; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.47 - 3.87), elderly adults (80 years old and older) (PR = 2.50; 95% CI 1.61 - 3.88), widowed (PR = 1.74; 95% CI 1.04 - 2.89) and among elderly adults who had rheumatism/arthritis/arthrosis (PR = 1.58; 95% CI 1.00 - 2.48), osteoporosis (PR = 1.71; 95% CI 1.18 - 2.49), asthma/bronchitis/emphysema (PR = 1,73; 95% CI 1.09 - 2.74), headache (PR = 1.59; 95% CI 1.07 - 2.38), mental common disorder (PR = 1.72; 95% CI 1.12 - 2.64), dizziness (PR = 2.82; 95% CI 1.98 - 4.02), insomnia (PR = 1.75; 95% CI 1.16 - 2.65), use of multiple medications (five or more) (PR = 2.50; 95% CI 1.12 - 5.56) and use of cane/walker (PR = 2.16; 95% CI 1.19 - 3,93). The present study shows segments of the elderly population who are more prone to falls through the identification of factors associated with this outcome. The findings can contribute to the planning of public health policies and programs addressed to the prevention of falls.

Censored Linear Regression Models For Irregularly Observed Longitudinal Data Using The Multivariate-t Distribution.

In acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) studies it is quite common to observe viral load measurements collected irregularly over time. Moreover, these measurements can be subjected to some upper and/or lower detection limits depending on the quantification assays. A complication arises when these continuous repeated measures have a heavy-tailed behavior. For such data structures, we propose a robust structure for a censored linear model based on the multivariate Student's t-distribution. To compensate for the autocorrelation existing among irregularly observed measures, a damped exponential correlation structure is employed. An efficient expectation maximization type algorithm is developed for computing the maximum likelihood estimates, obtaining as a by-product the standard errors of the fixed effects and the log-likelihood function. The proposed algorithm uses closed-form expressions at the E-step that rely on formulas for the mean and variance of a truncated multivariate Student's t-distribution. The methodology is illustrated through an application to an Human Immunodeficiency Virus-AIDS (HIV-AIDS) study and several simulation studies.

Dyspareunia In Hiv-positive And Hiv-negative Middle-aged Women: A Cross-sectional Study.

To evaluate whether dyspareunia is associated with HIV status in menopausal women and also to assess which factors are associated with dyspareunia in a group of HIV-positive menopausal women. A cross-sectional study was conducted with 178 HIV-negative and 128 HIV-positive women aged 40-60 years. The Short Personal Experiences Questionnaire (SPEQ) was used to collect data. Sociodemographic, clinical, behavioural and reproductive factors were evaluated, as well as factors related to the HIV infection. Dyspareunia was defined as pain during intercourse. A bivariate analysis and Poisson multiple regression analysis were performed. Overall, 41.4% of the HIV-positive women reported dyspareunia compared with 34.8% of the HIV-negative women (p=0.242). In the HIV-positive women, bivariate analysis revealed an association between dyspareunia and having a steady partner (p=0.047); the woman's partner having undergone HIV testing (p=0.020); vaginal dryness (p<0.001); muscle/joint pain (p=0.021); physical/emotional violence (p=0.049); urinary incontinence (p=0.004); and the use of lamivudine/zidovudine (p=0.048). The Poisson multiple regression analysis found an association between dyspareunia and vaginal dryness (prevalence ratio (PR)=1.96, 95% CI 1.10 to 3.50, p=0.023) and urinary incontinence (PR=1.86, 95% CI 1.06 to 3.27, p=0.031). Dyspareunia was common in this group of HIV-positive women and was associated principally with vaginal dryness and urinary incontinence. The importance of treating dyspareunia within the context of sexual health in this group of women should be emphasised and appropriate management of this issue may reduce the likelihood of lesions on the vaginal wall, which may act as a portal of entry for other infections.

Low Bone Mass In Human Immunodeficiency Virus-infected Climacteric Women Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy: Prevalence And Associated Factors.

Low bone mineral density (BMD) has been found in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients; however, data on associated factors remain unclear, specifically in middle-aged women. This study aims to evaluate factors associated with low BMD in HIV-positive women. In this cross-sectional study, a questionnaire was administered to 206 HIV-positive women aged 40 to 60 years who were receiving outpatient care. Clinical features, laboratory test results, and BMD were assessed. Yates and Pearson χ(2) tests and Poisson multiple regression analysis were performed. The median age of women was 47.7 years; 75% had nadir CD4 T-cell counts higher than 200, and 77.8% had viral loads below the detection limit. There was no association between low BMD at the proximal femur and lumbar spine (L1-L4) and risk factors associated with HIV infection and highly active antiretroviral therapy. Poisson multiple regression analysis showed that the only factor associated with low BMD at the proximal femur and lumbar spine was postmenopause status. Low BMD is present in more than one third of this population sample, in which most women are using highly active antiretroviral therapy and have a well-controlled disease. The main associated factor is related to estrogen deprivation. The present data support periodic BMD assessments in HIV-infected patients and highlight the need to implement comprehensive menopausal care for these women to prevent bone loss.

Comparing Near-infrared Conventional Diffuse Reflectance Spectroscopy And Hyperspectral Imaging For Determination Of The Bulk Properties Of Solid Samples By Multivariate Regression: Determination Of Mooney Viscosity And Plasticity Indices Of Natural Rubber.

Conventional reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) and hyperspectral imaging (HI) in the near-infrared region (1000-2500 nm) are evaluated and compared, using, as the case study, the determination of relevant properties related to the quality of natural rubber. Mooney viscosity (MV) and plasticity indices (PI) (PI0 - original plasticity, PI30 - plasticity after accelerated aging, and PRI - the plasticity retention index after accelerated aging) of rubber were determined using multivariate regression models. Two hundred and eighty six samples of rubber were measured using conventional and hyperspectral near-infrared imaging reflectance instruments in the range of 1000-2500 nm. The sample set was split into regression (n = 191) and external validation (n = 95) sub-sets. Three instruments were employed for data acquisition: a line scanning hyperspectral camera and two conventional FT-NIR spectrometers. Sample heterogeneity was evaluated using hyperspectral images obtained with a resolution of 150 × 150 μm and principal component analysis. The probed sample area (5 cm(2); 24,000 pixels) to achieve representativeness was found to be equivalent to the average of 6 spectra for a 1 cm diameter probing circular window of one FT-NIR instrument. The other spectrophotometer can probe the whole sample in only one measurement. The results show that the rubber properties can be determined with very similar accuracy and precision by Partial Least Square (PLS) regression models regardless of whether HI-NIR or conventional FT-NIR produce the spectral datasets. The best Root Mean Square Errors of Prediction (RMSEPs) of external validation for MV, PI0, PI30, and PRI were 4.3, 1.8, 3.4, and 5.3%, respectively. Though the quantitative results provided by the three instruments can be considered equivalent, the hyperspectral imaging instrument presents a number of advantages, being about 6 times faster than conventional bulk spectrometers, producing robust spectral data by ensuring sample representativeness, and minimizing the effect of the presence of contaminants.

Factors associated with the prevalence of hypertension and control practices among elderly residents of São Paulo city, Brazil

The aim of this study was to analyze the prevalence of hypertension and control practices among the elderly. The survey analyzed data from 872 elderly people in São Paulo, Brazil, through a cluster sampling, stratified according to education and income. A Poisson multiple regression model checked for the existence of factors associated with hypertension. The prevalence of self-reported hypertension among the elderly was 46.9%. Variables associated with hypertension were self-rated health, alcohol consumption, gender, and hospitalization in the last year, regardless of age. The three most common measures taken to control hypertension, but only rarely, are oral medication, routine salt-free diet and physical activity. Lifestyle and socioeconomic status did not affect the practice of control, but knowledge about the importance of physical activity was higher among those older people with higher education and greater income. The research suggests that health policies that focus on primary care to encourage lifestyle changes among the elderly are necessary.

Atividade fisica e aptidão fisica de adolescentes : similaridades e contrastes em uma decada

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Reproductive behavior, development and eye regression in the cave armored catfish, Ancistrus cryptophthalmus Reis, 1987 (Siluriformes: Loricariidae), breed in laboratory

The troglobitic armored catfish, Ancistrus cryptophthalmus (Loricariidae, Ancistrinae) is known from four caves in the São Domingos karst area, upper rio Tocantins basin, Central Brazil. These populations differ in general body shape and degree of reduction of eyes and of pigmentation. The small Passa Três population (around 1,000 individuals) presents the most reduced eyes, which are not externally visible in adults. A small group of Passa Três catfish, one male and three females, reproduced spontaneously thrice in laboratory, at the end of summertime in 2000, 2003 and 2004. Herein we describe the reproductive behavior during the 2003 event, as well as the early development of the 2003 and 2004 offsprings, with focus on body growth and ontogenetic regression of eyes. The parental care by the male, which includes defense of the rock shelter where the egg clutch is laid, cleaning and oxygenation of eggs, is typical of many loricariids. On the other hand, the slow development, including delayed eye degeneration, low body growth rates and high estimated longevity (15 years or more) are characteristic of precocial, or K-selected, life cycles. In the absence of comparable data for close epigean relatives (Ancistrus spp.), it is not possible to establish whether these features are an autapomorphic specialization of the troglobitic A. cryptophthalmus or a plesiomorphic trait already present in the epigean ancestor, possibly favoring the adoption of the life in the food-poor cave environment. We briefly discuss the current hypotheses on eye regression in troglobitic vertebrates.

O risco de incidência e persistência da obesidade entre adultos Brasileiros segundo seu estado nutricional ao final da adolescência

INTRODUÇÃO: A prevalência da obesidade vem aumentando entre adultos nos países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. No Brasil, a obesidade entre adultos atingiu entre 2008 a 2009 pelo menos 10% da população. OBJETIVOS: Com base nos dados do VIGITEL, neste trabalho, serão estimadas a incidência e a persistência da obesidade entre brasileiros adultos no período de 2006 a 2009. MÉTODOS: Nas amostras de 2006 a 2009, foram utilizados casos com registros demográficos, socioeconômicos e antropométricos completos. As estimativas foram expandidas para a população brasileira em 2007. A estimativa do risco relativo (RR) para incidência e persistência da obesidade ou excesso de peso entre homens e mulheres foi feita com regressão múltipla de Poisson, e ajustada para hábito de fumar, idade e atividade física. RESULTADOS: A incidência do excesso de peso entre indivíduos com peso baixo ou normal, aos 20 anos, é estimada em 40%, no sexo masculino, e em 30%, no feminino. A persistência da obesidade, por sua vez, é estimada em 65%, no sexo masculino, e em 47%, no feminino. O gradiente da obesidade como função da escolarização é virtualmente nulo no sexo masculino. Entre mulheres, o gradiente é negativo, com associações lineares e estatisticamente significantes. CONCLUSÃO: Essas características, associadas à forte expansão da obesidade entre adultos jovens detectada em outros estudos, apontam a urgência da utilização de políticas públicas mais incisivas e efetivas, que reduzam a exposição da população à alimentação com má qualidade nutricional e desenvolvam ações voltadas à promoção da atividade física.

Assessing food dietary intakes in Japanese-Brazilians using factor analysis

We describe the use of factor analysis for assessing food habits in Japanese-Brazilians. Dietary data from 1,283 participants of a cross-sectional study were used. Besides statistical criteria, we also used the conceptual meaning of identified profiles to obtain scores for dietary patterns (Japanese or Western profile). Paired Student t test, linear regression and Poisson models were used to verify the existence of relationship between these scores and generation, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference and presence of metabolic syndrome, respectively. First generation subjects had higher mean Japanese profile scores and lower Western profile scores than those of second generation. The Western dietary pattern was associated with BMI (p = 0.001), waist circumference (p = 0.023) and metabolic syndrome (p < 0.05). We concluded that these scores were able to discriminate subjects who maintained their traditional Japanese lifestyle or otherwise, and that the incorporation of a Western lifestyle is associated to high values of BMI, waist circumference and presence of metabolic syndrome.

Dietary calcium intake and overweight: an epidemiologic view

OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the relation between overweight and calcium intake in adults living in the municipality of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional population-based study on a sample of 1459 adults that was obtained by multistage cluster sampling. Dietary intake was measured by the 24-h recall method. Poisson's and linear regression analyses were performed to evaluate the relation between overweight and quartiles of calcium intake adjusted for energy. RESULTS: The prevalence of overweight was 43.1% and the average adjusted calcium intake was 448.6 mg. In the linear regression analyses, the regression coefficient for adjusted calcium was significant and negative (P = 0.019, beta(1) = -0.0001). Although evaluated by quartiles, the prevalence ratio for overweight in the first quartile of calcium intake was 1.24 (95% confidence interval 1.00-1.54) and that in the second quartile was 1.24 (95% confidence interval 1.03-1.49). CONCLUSION: In the present study, calcium intake showed a significant negative association with body mass index

Inatividade física e fatores associados em adultos, São Paulo, Brasil

OBJETIVO: Analisar prevalências de inatividade física e fatores associados, e exercícios e esportes praticados segundo escolaridade em 2.050 adultos de 18 a 59 anos de idade - Estado de São Paulo, Brasil. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal de base populacional com amostra estratificada e em múltiplos estágios. A inatividade física global foi aferida pelo International Physical Activity questionary - IPAQ short version, e por questão sobre prática regular de atividade física no lazer. A análise dos dados levou em conta o desenho amostral. RESULTADOS: A prevalência de inatividade física no lazer foi maior entre as mulheres. Já a inatividade física pelo IPAQ foi maior entre os homens. Modelos de regressão múltipla de Poisson indicaram, nos homens, menor inatividade física pelo IPAQ nos solteiros e separados, estudantes e aqueles que não possuíam carro. A inatividade física no lazer foi maior nos homens acima de 40 anos e com menor escolaridade ou apenas estudantes. A inatividade física pelo IPAQ, nas mulheres, foi mais prevalente entre as com maior escolaridade, ocupações menos qualificadas e viúvas; a inatividade física no lazer diminuiu com o aumento da idade e da escolaridade. Entre as modalidades praticadas no lazer, a caminhada foi a mais prevalente nas mulheres e o futebol nos homens. A maioria das modalidades foi diretamente associada à escolaridade; aproximadamente 25% dos indivíduos com mais de 12 anos de estudo praticava caminhada. CONCLUSÕES: Estes resultados sugerem que intervenções e políticas públicas de promoção da atividade física devem considerar diferenças socioeconômicas, de gênero, bem como as modalidades e o contexto em que a atividade física é praticadA

Efetividade da suplementação diária ou semanal com ferro na prevenção da anemia em lactentes

OBJETIVO: Avaliar a efetividade da suplementação universal profilática com sulfato ferroso, em administração diária ou semanal, na prevenção da anemia em lactentes. MÉTODOS: Ensaio de campo randomizado com crianças de seis a 12 meses de idade, atendidas em unidades básicas de saúde do município do Rio de Janeiro, em 2004-2005. Foram formadas três coortes concorrentes com suplementação universal com sulfato ferroso com grupos: diário (n=150; 12,5mgFe/dia), semanal (n=147; 25mgFe/semana) e controle (n=94). A intervenção durou 24 semanas e foi acompanhada por ações educativas promotoras de adesão. A concentração de hemoglobina sérica foi analisada segundo sua distribuição, média e prevalência de anemia (Hb<110,0g/L) aos 12 meses de idade. A avaliação da efetividade foi realizada segundo intenção de tratar e adesão ao protocolo, utilizando-se análises de regressão múltipla (linear e de Poisson). RESULTADOS: Os grupos mostraram-se homogêneos quanto às variáveis de caracterização. A intervenção foi operacionalizada com sucesso, com elevada adesão ao protocolo em ambos os grupos expostos a ela, sem diferença estatística entre eles. Após ajuste, somente o esquema diário apresentou efeito protetor. Na análise por adesão, o esquema diário apresentou evidente efeito dose-resposta para média de hemoglobina sérica e prevalência de anemia, não sendo observado nenhum efeito protetor do esquema semanal. CONCLUSÕES: Apenas o esquema diário de suplementação universal com sulfato ferroso dos seis aos 12 meses de idade foi efetivo em aumentar a concentração de hemoglobina sérica e em reduzir o risco de anemia

Avaliação da ingestão de alimentos por nipo-brasileiros utilizando análise fatorial

Descreve-se o uso da análise fatorial na avaliação dos hábitos alimentares de nipo-brasileiros. Utilizaram-se dados dietéticos de 1.283 participantes de estudo transversal. A partir de critérios estatísticos e do significado conceitual dos padrões identificados, geraram-se escores que definiram os perfis dietéticos (japonês ou ocidental). Empregou-se o teste t de Student pareado, os modelos de regressão linear e de Poisson para examinar as relações desses escores com, respectivamente, a geração, índice de massa corporal (IMC), perímetro abdominal e a presença de síndrome metabólica. Aqueles de primeira geração, em relação aos de segunda, apresentaram escores maiores para o perfil japonês e menores para o ocidental. O perfil ocidental relacionou-se com o IMC (p = 0,001), perímetro abdominal (p = 0,023) e a síndrome metabólica (p < 0,05). Conclui-se que os escores discriminaram sujeitos que mantêm ou não estilo de vida tradicional japonês e que a incorporação de hábitos ocidentais associou-se a maiores valores de IMC, perímetro abdominal e a presença de síndrome metabólica