829 resultados para Outcome expectations
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The position of the anthropologist in the field is discussed, in this article, as a position of “estranged intimacy”, that is to say, the anthropologist occupies an ambiguous position of becoming intimately involved whilst concurrently standing back. This definition derives from reflections upon fieldwork, conducted in the north of Portugal, with Cape Verdean migrant young women and their experiences as mothers. The article discusses two aspects related to the fieldwork. Firstly, the way in which diverse strategies of establishing relations in the field placed me in a position of “estranged intimacy” which reconfigured the meanings I had initially attributed to the term “Cape Verdean women”. Secondly, how becoming unexpectedly involved in a situation of intense conjugal conflict led me to reconsider my understanding of Cape Verdean gender relations. Both cases demonstrate how the endeavour to produce analytical and ethnographical knowledge was shot through with an unstable mix of detachment and involvement and how coming up against the unexpected may contribute towards the reconfiguration of ethnographic knowledge, in this specific case, with regard to the dynamics of gender relations.
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Purpose: Pulmonary hypoplasia is a determinant parameter for extra-uterine life. In the last years, MRI appears as a complement to US in order to evaluate the degree of pulmonary hypoplasia in foetuses with congenital anomalies, by using different methods - fetal lung volumetry (FLV), lung-to-liver signal intensity ratio (LLSIR)-. But until now, information about the correlation between the MRI prediction and the real postnatal outcome is limited. Methods and materials: We retrospectively reviewed the fetal MRI performed at our Institution in the last 8 years and selected the cases with suspicion of fetal pulmonary hypoplasia (n = 30). The pulmonary volumetry data of these foetuses were collected and the lung-to-liver signal intensity ratio (LLSIR) measures performed. These data were compared with those obtained from a control group of 25 foetuses considered as normal at MRI. The data of the study group were also correlated with the autopsy records or the post-natal clinical information of the patients. Results: As expected, the control group showed higher FLV and LLSIR values than the problem group at all gestational ages. Higher values of FLV and LLSIR were associated with a better post-natal outcome. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and accuracy for the relative LLSIR and the relative FLV showed no significant differences. Conclusion: Our data show that not only the FLV but also the relative LLSIR inform about the degree of fetal lung development. This information may help to predict the fetal outcome and to evaluate the need for neonatal intensive care.
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This paper considers a general and informationally efficient approach to determine the optimal access pricing rule for interconnected networks. It shows that there exists a simple rule that achieves the Ramsey outcome as the unique equilibrium when networks compete in linear prices without network-based price discrimination. The approach is informationally efficient in the sense that the regulator is required to know only the marginal cost structure, i.e. the marginal cost of making and terminating a call. The approach is general in that access prices can depend not only on the marginal costs but also on the retail prices, which can be observed by consumers and therefore by the regulator as well. In particular, I consider the set of linear access pricing rules which includes any fixed access price, the Efficient Component Pricing Rule (ECPR) and the Modified ECPR as special cases. I show that in this set, there is a unique rule that implements the Ramsey outcome as the unique equilibrium independently of the underlying demand conditions.
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To recover a version of Barro's (1979) `random walk'tax smoothing outcome, we modify Lucas and Stokey's (1983) economyto permit only risk--free debt. This imparts near unit root like behaviorto government debt, independently of the government expenditureprocess, a realistic outcome in the spirit of Barro's. We showhow the risk--free--debt--only economy confronts the Ramsey plannerwith additional constraints on equilibrium allocations thattake the form of a sequence of measurability conditions.We solve the Ramsey problem by formulating it in terms of a Lagrangian,and applying a Parameterized Expectations Algorithm tothe associated first--order conditions. The first--order conditions andnumerical impulse response functions partially affirmBarro's random walk outcome. Though the behaviors oftax rates, government surpluses, and government debts differ, allocationsare very close for computed Ramsey policies across incomplete and completemarkets economies.
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In models where privately informed agents interact, agents may need to formhigher order expectations, i.e. expectations of other agents' expectations. This paper develops a tractable framework for solving and analyzing linear dynamic rational expectationsmodels in which privately informed agents form higher order expectations. The frameworkis used to demonstrate that the well-known problem of the infinite regress of expectationsidentified by Townsend (1983) can be approximated to an arbitrary accuracy with a finitedimensional representation under quite general conditions. The paper is constructive andpresents a fixed point algorithm for finding an accurate solution and provides weak conditions that ensure that a fixed point exists. To help intuition, Singleton's (1987) asset pricingmodel with disparately informed traders is used as a vehicle for the paper.
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Was the German slump inevitable? This paper argues that -despite thespeed and depth of Germany's deflation in the early 1930s - fear ofinflation is evident in the bond, foreign exchange, and commodity marketsat certain critical junctures of the Great Depression. Therefore, policyoptions were more limited than many subsequent critics of Brüning'spolicies have been prepared to admit. Using a rational expectationsframework, we find strong evidence from the bondmarket to suggest fearof inflation. Futures prices also reveal that market participants werebetting on price increases. These findings are discussed in the contextof reparations and related to the need for a regime shift to overcomethe crisis.
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Background: Prosthetic joint infections (PJI) lead to significant long-term morbidity with high cost of healthcare. We evaluated characteristics of infections and the infection and functional outcome of knee PJI over a 10-year period. Methods: All patients hospitalized at our institution from 1/2000 through 12/2009 with knee PJI (defined as growth of the same microorganism in ≥2 tissue or synovial fluid cultures, visible purulence, sinus tract or acute inflammation on tissue histopathology) were included. Patients, their relatives and/or treating physicians were contacted to determine the outcome. Results: During the study period, 61 patients with knee PJI were identified. The median age at the time of diagnosis of infection was 73 y (range, 53-94 y); 52% were men. Median hospital stay was 37 d (range, 1-145 d). Most reasons for primary arthroplasty was osteoarthritis (n = 48), trauma (n = 9) and rheumatoid arthritis (n = 4). 23 primary surgeries (40%) were performed at CHUV, 34 (60%) elsewhere. After surgery, 8 PJI were early (<3 months), 16 delayed (3-24 months) and 33 late (>24 months). PJI were treated with (i) open or arthroscopic debridement with prosthesis retention in 26 (46%), (ii) one-stage exchange in 1, (iii) two-stage exchange in 22 (39%) and (iv) prosthesis removal in 8 (14%). Isolated pathogens were S. aureus (13), coagulase-negative staphylococci (10), streptococci (5), enterococci (3), gram-negative rods (3) and anaerobes (3). Patients were followed for a median of 3.1 years, 2 patients died (unrelated to PJI). The outcome of infection was favorable in 50 patients (88%), whereas the functional outcome was favorable in 33 patients (58%). Conclusions: With the current treatment concept, the high cure rate of infection (88%) is associated with a less favorable functional outcome o 58%. Earlier surgical intervention and more rapid and improved diagnosis of infection may improve the functional outcome of PJI.
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We examine the role of expectations in the Great Moderation episode. We derive theoretical restrictions in a New-Keynesian model and test them using measures of expectations obtained from survey data, the Greenbook and bond markets. Expectations explain the dynamics of inflation and of interest rates but their importance is roughly unchanged over time. Systems with and without expectations display similar reduced form characteristics. Including or excluding expectations hardly changes the economic explanation of the Great Moderation. Results are robust to changes in the structure of the empirical model.
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In this article we show that in the presence of trading constraints, such as short sale constraints, the standard definition of a Rational Expectations Equilibrium allows for equilibrium prices that reveal information unknown to any active trader in the market. We propose a new definition of the Rational Expectations Equilibrium that incorporates a stronger measurability condition than measurability with respect to the join of the information sets of the agents and give an example of non-existence of equilibrium. The example is robust to perturbations on the data of the economy and the introduction of new assets.
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This study investigated concentrations of quetiapine and norquetiapine in plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) in 22 schizophrenic patients after 4-week treatment with quetiapine (600 mg/d), which was preceded by a 3-week washout period. Blood and CSF samples were obtained on days 1 and 28, and CSF levels of homovanillic acid (HVA), 5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid (5-HIAA), and 3-methoxy-4-hydroxyphenylglycol (MHPG) concentrations were measured at baseline and after 4 weeks of quetiapine, allowing calculations of differences in HVA (ΔHVA), 5-HIAA (Δ5-HIAA), and MHPG (ΔMHPG) concentrations. Patients were assessed clinically, using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) and Clinical Global Impression Scale at baseline and then at weekly intervals. Plasma levels of quetiapine and norquetiapine were 1110 ± 608 and 444 ± 226 ng/mL, and the corresponding CSF levels were 29 ± 18 and 5 ± 2 ng/mL, respectively. After the treatment, the levels of HVA, 5-HIAA, and MHPG were increased by 33%, 35%, and 33%, respectively (P < 0.001). A negative correlation was found between the decrease in PANSS positive subscale scores and CSF ΔHVA (r(rho) = -0.690, P < 0.01), and the decrease in PANSS negative subscale scores both with CSF Δ5-HIAA (r(rho) = -0.619, P = 0.02) and ΔMHPG (r(rho) = -0.484, P = 0.038). Because, unfortunately, schizophrenic patients experience relapses even with the best available treatments, monitoring of CSF drug and metabolite levels might prove to be useful in tailoring individually adjusted treatments.
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Objectives: This study analyses the long term cardiac and neurological outcome of patients with cardiac rhabdomyoma (CR) in order to allow comprehensive prenatal counselling. Because of the relative rarity of the disease, there is paucity of data concerning the outcome of patients with CR. Methods: A retrospective study including all cases with echocardiographic diagnosis of CR encountered between April 1986 and August 2006. Results: Of 24 CR patients identified, 7 were diagnosed in-utero at a gestational age (GA) between 28-35 weeks and 17 postnatally between 10 days and 5 years. 14 had multiple CR and 10 had one/two CR. The CRs were situated predominantly in the LV (70%), RV (52%) and IVS (48%) and to a lesser extent in the atria (13%) and pericardium (4%). Follow-up echocardiography in. 18'show\'ld complete postnatal regression of CR in 3, partial regression in 13 and no change in 2. Cardiac complications were encountered in 5 patients, 1 with WPW syndrome and SVT requiring anti-arrhythmic therapy, 1 with sub-aortic obstruction needing surgical intervention and 3 with occasional bouts of paroxysmal SVT. Long-term follow-up revealed tuberous sclerosis of Bourneville (TSB) as definite diagnosIs in 22 (92%), complicated by epilepsy in 16 (67%) and developmental delay in 14 (64%). Conclusions: CR generally regresses after birth and after the high risk perinatal period cardiac related problems are rare. The relatively poor neurodevelopmental outcome of the almost always associated TSB however should form a dominating aspect of the prenatal counselling of parents whose fetuses are diagnosed with this rare disease.
Non-traumatic spinal cord ischaemia in childhood - clinical manifestation, neuroimaging and outcome.
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BACKGROUND: Spinal cord ischaemia is rare in childhood and information on clinical presentation and outcome is scarce. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of eight patients and 75 additional cases from the literature. Data search included: patient's age, primary manifestation, risk factors, neuroimaging and outcome. RESULTS: Five female and three male patients gave consent to participate. Mean age was 12.5 years (10-15 years). Six patients presented with paraplegia; this was preceded by pain in four. Brown Sequard syndrome and quadriparesis were the two others' presenting condition. Sensation levels were thoracolumbar in seven cases. Bladder dysfunction only or bladder and bowel dysfunction were reported in eight and five patients respectively. Time to maximal symptom manifestation was <12 h in 7/8. Risk factors included surgery, minor trauma, recent infection, and thrombophilia. Mean follow-up was 3.3 years (0.25-6.3 years). Three patients remained wheelchair-dependent and three patients were ambulatory without aid. Bladder function recovered fully in five children. Most affected aspects of quality of life were physical and mental well-being and self-perception. T2-weighted-MR images showed pencil-like hyperintensity (8/8) in sagittal and H-shaped or snake-eyes-like lesion (6/8) in axial views. Analyses of all 83 patients were in congruence with the above results of the study group. CONCLUSION: Spinal cord ischaemia in childhood presenting with pain, paraplegia, and bladder dysfunction has high morbidity concerning motor problems and quality of life. Acute arterial ischaemic event in children seems similar to adult events with respect to clinical presentation and, surprisingly, also in outcome.
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CONTEXT: Recent magnetic resonance imaging studies have attempted to relate volumetric brain measurements in early schizophrenia to clinical and functional outcome some years later. These studies have generally been negative, perhaps because gray and white matter volumes inaccurately assess the underlying dysfunction that might be predictive of outcome. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the predictive value of frontal and temporal spectroscopy measures for outcome in patients with first-episode psychoses. DESIGN: Left prefrontal cortex and left mediotemporal lobe voxels were assessed using proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy to provide the ratio of N-acetylaspartate (NAA) and choline-containing compounds to creatine and phosphocreatine (Cr) (NAA/Cr ratio). These data were used to predict outcome at 18 months after admission, as assessed by a systematic medical record audit. SETTING: Early psychosis clinic. PARTICIPANTS: Forty-six patients with first-episode psychosis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We used regression models that included age at imaging and duration of untreated psychosis to predict outcome scores on the Global Assessment of Functioning Scale, Clinical Global Impression scales, and Social and Occupational Functional Assessment Scale, as well as the number of admissions during the treatment period. We then further considered the contributions of premorbid function and baseline level of negative symptoms. RESULTS: The only spectroscopic predictor of outcome was the NAA/Cr ratio in the prefrontal cortex. Low scores on this variable were related to poorer outcome on all measures. In addition, the frontal NAA/Cr ratio explained 17% to 30% of the variance in outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Prefrontal neuronal dysfunction is an inconsistent feature of early psychosis; rather, it is an early marker of poor prognosis across the first years of illness. The extent to which this can be used to guide treatment and whether it predicts outcome some years after first presentation are questions for further research.
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OBJECTIVE: To assess the public health consequences of the rise in multiple births with respect to congenital anomalies. DESIGN: Descriptive epidemiological analysis of data from population-based congenital anomaly registries. SETTING: Fourteen European countries. POPULATION: A total of 5.4 million births 1984-2007, of which 3% were multiple births. METHODS: Cases of congenital anomaly included live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks of gestation and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence rates per 10,000 births and relative risk of congenital anomaly in multiple versus singleton births (1984-2007); proportion prenatally diagnosed, proportion by pregnancy outcome (2000-07). Proportion of pairs where both co-twins were cases. RESULTS: Prevalence of congenital anomalies from multiple births increased from 5.9 (1984-87) to 10.7 per 10,000 births (2004-07). Relative risk of nonchromosomal anomaly in multiple births was 1.35 (95% CI 1.31-1.39), increasing over time, and of chromosomal anomalies was 0.72 (95% CI 0.65-0.80), decreasing over time. In 11.4% of affected twin pairs both babies had congenital anomalies (2000-07). The prenatal diagnosis rate was similar for multiple and singleton pregnancies. Cases from multiple pregnancies were less likely to be terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly, odds ratio 0.41 (95% CI 0.35-0.48) and more likely to be stillbirths and neonatal deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in babies who are both from a multiple pregnancy and affected by a congenital anomaly has implications for prenatal and postnatal service provision. The contribution of assisted reproductive technologies to the increase in risk needs further research. The deficit of chromosomal anomalies among multiple births has relevance for prenatal risk counselling.
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PURPOSE: To assess the outcome and patterns of failure in patients with testicular lymphoma treated by chemotherapy (CT) and/or radiation therapy (RT). METHODS AND MATERIALS: Data from a series of 36 adult patients with Ann Arbor Stage I (n = 21), II (n = 9), III (n = 3), or IV (n = 3) primary testicular lymphoma, consecutively treated between 1980 and 1999, were collected in a retrospective multicenter study by the Rare Cancer Network. Median age was 64 years (range: 21-91 years). Full staging workup (chest X-ray, testicular ultrasound, abdominal ultrasound, and/or thoracoabdominal computer tomography, bone marrow assessment, full blood count, lactate dehydrogenase, and cerebrospinal fluid evaluation) was completed in 18 (50%) patients. All but one patient underwent orchidectomy, and spermatic cord infiltration was found in 9 patients. Most patients (n = 29) had CT, consisting in most cases of cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisolone (CHOP) with (n = 17) or without intrathecal CT. External RT was delivered to scrotum alone (n = 12) or testicular, iliac, and para-aortic regions (n = 8). The median RT dose was 31 Gy (range: 20-44 Gy) in a median of 17 fractions (10-24), using a median of 1.8 Gy (range: 1.5-2.5 Gy) per fraction. The median follow-up period was 42 months (range: 6-138 months). RESULTS: After a median period of 11 months (range: 1-76 months), 14 patients presented lymphoma progression, mostly in the central nervous system (CNS) (n = 8). Among the 17 patients who received intrathecal CT, 4 had a CNS relapse (p = NS). No testicular, iliac, or para-aortic relapse was observed in patients receiving RT to these regions. The 5-year overall, lymphoma-specific, and disease-free survival was 47%, 66%, and 43%, respectively. In univariate analyses, statistically significant factors favorably influencing the outcome were early-stage and combined modality treatment. Neither RT technique nor total dose influenced the outcome. Multivariate analysis revealed that the most favorable independent factors predicting the outcome were younger age, early-stage disease, and combined modality treatment. CONCLUSIONS: In this multicenter retrospective study, CNS was found to be the principal site of relapse, and no extra-CNS lymphoma progression was observed in the irradiated volumes. More effective CNS prophylaxis, including combined modalities, should be prospectively explored in this uncommon site of extranodal lymphoma.