Understanding sources of the change in international business cycles

Macroeconomic activity has become less volatile over the past three decades in most G7 economies. Current literature focuses on the characterization of the volatility reduction and explanations for this so called "moderation" in each G7 economy separately. In opposed to individual country analysis and individual variable analysis, this paper focuses on common characteristics of the reduction and common explanations for the moderation in G7 countries. In particular, we study three explanations: structural changes in the economy, changes in common international shocks and changes in domestic shocks. We study these explanations in a unified model structure. To this end, we propose a Bayesian factor structural vector autoregressive model. Using the proposed model, we investigate whether we can find common explanations for all G7 economies when information is pooled from multiple domestic and international sources. Our empirical analysis suggests that volatility reductions can largely be attributed to the decline in the magnitudes of the shocks in most G7 countries while only for the U.K., the U.S. and Italy they can partially be attributed to structural changes in the economy. Analyzing the components of the volatility, we also find that domestic shocks rather than common international shocks can account for a large part of the volatility reduction in most of the G7 countries. Finally, we find that after mid-1980s the structure of the economy changes substantially in five of the G7 countries: Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S..

Innovation sources and productivity in Catalonian firms: a quantile regression analysis

This paper explores the effects of two main sources of innovation -intramural and external R&D- on the productivity level in a sample of 3,267 Catalonian firms. The data set used is based on the official innovation survey of Catalonia which was a part of the Spanish sample of CIS4, covering the years 2002-2004. We compare empirical results by applying usual OLS and quantile regression techniques both in manufacturing and services industries. In quantile regression, results suggest different patterns at both innovation sources as we move across conditional quantiles. The elasticity of intramural R&D activities on productivity decreased when we move up the high productivity levels both in manufacturing and services sectors, while the effects of external R&D rise in high-technology industries but are more ambiguous in low-technology and knowledge-intensive services. JEL codes: O300, C100, O140. Keywords: Innovation sources, R&D, Productivity, Quantile regression

Applying RADIC in Open MPI: the methodology used to implement RADIC over a Message Passing Library

Fault tolerance has become a major issue for computer and software engineers because the occurrence of faults increases the cost of using a parallel computer. RADIC is the fault tolerance architecture for message passing systems which is transparent, decentralized, flexible and scalable. This master thesis presents the methodology used to implement the RADIC architecture over Open MPI, a well-know large-used message passing library. This implementation kept the RADIC architecture characteristics. In order to validate the implementation we have executed a synthetic ping program, besides, to evaluate the implementation performance we have used the NAS Parallel Benchmarks. The results prove that the RADIC architecture performance depends on the communication pattern of the parallel application which is running. Furthermore, our implementation proves that the RADIC architecture could be implemented over an existent message passing library.

Innovation sources and productivity: a quantile regression analysis

This paper explores the effects of two main sources of innovation —intramural and external R&D— on the productivity level in a sample of 3,267 Catalan firms. The data set used is based on the official innovation survey of Catalonia which was a part of the Spanish sample of CIS4, covering the years 2002-2004. We compare empirical results by applying usual OLS and quantile regression techniques both in manufacturing and services industries. In quantile regression, results suggest different patterns at both innovation sources as we move across conditional quantiles. The elasticity of intramural R&D activities on productivity decreased when we move up the high productivity levels both in manufacturing and services sectors, while the effects of external R&D rise in high-technology industries but are more ambiguous in low-technology and services industries.

Productivity, Preferences and UIP deviations in an Open Economy Business Cycle Model

We show that a flex-price two-sector open economy DSGE model can explain the poor degree of international risk sharing and exchange rate disconnect. We use a suite of model evaluation measures and examine the role of (i) traded and non-traded sectors; (ii) financial market incompleteness; (iii) preference shocks; (iv) deviations from UIP condition for the exchange rates; and (v) creditor status in net foreign assets. We find that there is a good case for both traded and non-traded productivity shocks as well as UIP deviations in explaining the puzzles.

The Timing of Asset Trade and Optimal Policy in Dynamic Open Economies

Using a standard open economy DSGE model, it is shown that the timing of asset trade relative to policy decisions has a potentially important impact on the welfare evaluation of monetary policy at the individual country level. If asset trade in the initial period takes place before the announcement of policy, a national policymaker can choose a policy rule which reduces the work effort of households in the policymaker’s country in the knowledge that consumption is fully insured by optimally chosen international portfolio positions. But if asset trade takes place after the policy announcement, this insurance is absent and households in the policymaker’s country bear the full consumption consequences of the chosen policy rule. The welfare incentives faced by national policymakers are very different between the two cases. Numerical examples confirm that asset market timing has a significant impact on the optimal policy rule.

Balanced Budget Government Spending in a Small Open Regional Economy

This paper investigates the impact of a balanced budget fiscal policy expansion in a regional context within a numerical dynamic general equilibrium model. We take Scotland as an example where, recently, there has been extensive debate on greater fiscal autonomy. In response to a balanced budget fiscal expansion the model suggests that: an increase in current government purchase in goods and services has negative multiplier effects only if the elasticity of substitution between private and public consumption is high enough to move downward the marginal utility of private consumers; public capital expenditure crowds in consumption and investment even with a high level of congestion; but crowding out effects might arise in the short-run if agents are myopic.

A novel device for reducing hemolysis provoked by cardiotomy suction during open heart cardiopulmonary bypass surgery: a randomized prospective study.

Since the inception of cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB), little progress has been made concerning the design of cardiotomy suction (CS). Because this is a major source of hemolysis, we decided to test a novel device (Smartsuction [SS]) specifically aimed at minimizing hemolysis during CPB in a clinical setting. Block randomization was carried out on a treated group (SS, n=28) and a control group (CTRL, n=26). Biochemical parameters were taken pre-, peri-, and post CPB and were compared between the two groups using the Student's t-test with statistical significance when P<0.05. No significant differences in patient demographics were observed between the two groups. Lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and plasma free hemoglobin (PFH) pre-CPB were comparable for the CTRL and SS groups, respectively. LDH peri-CPB was 275+/-100 U/L versus 207+/-83 U/L for the CTRL and SS groups, respectively (P<0.05). PFH was 486+/-204 mg/L versus 351+/-176 mg/L for the CTRL and SS groups, respectively (P<0.05). LDH post CPB was 354+/-116 U/L versus 275+/-89 U/L for the CTRL and SS groups, respectively (P<0.05). PFH was 549+/-271 mg/L versus 460+/-254 mg/L for the CTRL and SS groups, respectively (P<0.05). Preoperative hematocrit (Hct) of 43+/-5% (CTRL) versus 37+/-5% (SS), and hemoglobin (Hb) of 141+/-16 g/L (CTRL) versus 122+/-17 g/L (SS) were significantly lower in the SS group. However, when normalized (N), the SS was capable of conserving Hct, Hb, and erythrocyte count perioperatively. Erythrocytes (N) were 59+/-5% (CTRL) versus 67+/-9% (SS); Hct (N) was 59+/-6% (CTRL) versus 68+/-9% (SS), and Hb (N) was 61+/-6% (CTRL) versus 70+/-10% (SS) (all P<0.05). This novel SS device evokes significantly lowered blood PFH and LDH values peri- and post CPB compared with the CTRL blood using a CS system. The SS may be a valuable alternative compared to traditional CS techniques.