Neglected risks, financial innovation, and financial fragility

We present a standard model of financial innovation, in which intermediaries engineer securities with cash flows that investors seek, but modify two assumptions. First, investors (and possibly intermediaries) neglect certain unlikely risks. Second, investors demand securities with safe cash flows. Financial intermediaries cater to these preferences and beliefs by engineering securities perceived to be safe but exposed to neglected risks. Because the risks are neglected, security issuance is excessive. As investors eventually recognize these risks, they fly back to safety of traditional securities and markets become fragile, even without leverage, precisely because the volume of new claims is excessive.

Occupational low back pain in nursing workers: massage versus pain

Objective: To assess the efficacy of massage for decreasing occupational low back pain in workers of a Nursing team in an Emergency Room. Method: A randomized controlled trial, using a socio-demographic/morbidity questionnaire and a Pain Numeric Scale. Forty-five subjects were randomly allocated for intervention (G1 – Massage by acupressure), placebo group (G2 – application of Garlium Arseneid Laser 904nm turned off) and control (G3 – no intervention). Results: The main triggering factor, as well as the worsening of pain, was the patient manipulation, both with a prevalence of 34.9%. The main treatment for low back pain before this research was the use of medication, with a prevalence of 44.2%. In accordance with a variance analysis, only G1 presented a significant statistical difference, with a better result after 12 sessions. Massage presented an enormous effect (d = 4.59), corresponding to 86% of reduction in the pain level. Conclusion: Massage was effective to decrease occupational low back pain of those Nursing workers.


Assessing risks of multiple sclerosis therapies.

Over the last two decades, thanks to the discovery of several pharmaceutical agents, multiple sclerosis (MS) has been transformed into a treatable disorder although the degree of therapeutic response may vary considerably. As more medications find their entry into the MS market, a clinician faces a mounting challenge of comparing risk and benefit profiles of various agents in an attempt to find the best treatment approach for each individual patient. In this review, we aim to summarize the available data on safety profiles of available MS therapies while focusing mostly on serious medication specific potential adverse events without discussing the teratogenic potential of each agent (unless there is a black box warning) or hypersensitivity reactions. Our goal is to provide a clinician with guidance on assuring the appropriate safety monitoring for patients treated with one of the agents discussed. We also comment on the future of risk management in MS and discuss possible enhancements to the current model of drug approval process and general strategies to improve the patient safety.

Doctors without borders: The returns to an occupational license for Soviet immigrant physicians in Israel

Re-licensing requirements for professionals that move across borders arewidespread. In this paper, we measure the returns to an occupationallicense using novel data on Soviet trained physicians that immigrated toIsrael. An immigrant re-training assignment rule used by the IsraelMinistry of Health provides an exogenous source of variation inre-licensing outcomes. Instrumental variables and quantile treatmenteffects estimates of the returns to an occupational license indicate excesswages due to occupational entry restrictions and negative selectioninto licensing status. We develop a model of optimal license acquisitionwhich suggests that the wages of high-skilled immigrant physicians in thenonphysician sector outweigh the lower direct costs that these immigrantsface in acquiring a medical license. Licensing thus leads to lower averagequality of service. However, the positive earnings effect of entry restrictionsfar outweighs the lower practitioner quality earnings effect that licensinginduces.

A subsampling approach to estimating the distribution of diversing statistics with application to assessing financial market risks

In this paper we propose a subsampling estimator for the distribution ofstatistics diverging at either known rates when the underlying timeseries in strictly stationary abd strong mixing. Based on our results weprovide a detailed discussion how to estimate extreme order statisticswith dependent data and present two applications to assessing financialmarket risk. Our method performs well in estimating Value at Risk andprovides a superior alternative to Hill's estimator in operationalizingSafety First portofolio selection.

Temporary help agencies and workers' occupational mobility

This paper focuses on the occupational mobility of temporary helpagency workers by studying their job-to-job upgrading chances as opposedto those who have not been hired through these intermediaries. A screeningapproach to the role of those labor brokers suggests that agency workersmay expect greater chances of upgrading from one occupation to another.Results obtained with a sample of Spanish workers show that workingthrough those intermediaries comparatively offers stronger prospects ofoccupational upgrading for workers of a medium qualification level. Thisbasic result is reinforced when the existence of self-selection into thistype of intermediated work is appropriately taken into account.

Health investment complementarities under competing risks

Applying the competing--risks model to multi--cause mortality,this paper provides a theoretical and empirical investigation of the positive complementarities that occur between disease--specific policy interventions. We argue that since an individual cannot die twice, competing risks imply that individuals will not waste resources on causes that are not the most immediate, but will make health investments so as to equalize cause--specific mortality. However, equal mortality risk from a variety of diseases does not imply that disease--specific public health interventions are a waste. Rather, a cause--specific intervention produces spillovers to other disease risks, so that the overall reduction in mortality will generally be larger than the direct effect measured on the targeted disease. The assumption that mortality from non--targeted diseases remains the same after a cause--specific intervention under--estimates the true effect of such programs, since the background mortality is also altered as a result of intervention. Analyzing data from one of the most important public health programs ever introduced, the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) of the United Nations, we find evidence for the existence of such complementarities, involving causes that are not biomedically, but behaviorally, linked.

What risks do people perceive in everyday life? A perspective gained from the experience sampling method (ESM)

The experiential sampling method (ESM) was used to collect data from 74 parttimestudents who described and assessed the risks involved in their current activitieswhen interrupted at random moments by text messages. The major categories ofperceived risk were short-term in nature and involved loss of time or materials relatedto work and physical damage (e.g., from transportation). Using techniques of multilevelanalysis, we demonstrate effects of gender, emotional state, and types of risk onassessments of risk. Specifically, females do not differ from males in assessing thepotential severity of risks but they see these as more likely to occur. Also, participantsassessed risks to be lower when in more positive self-reported emotional states. Wefurther demonstrate the potential of ESM by showing that risk assessments associatedwith current actions exceed those made retrospectively. We conclude by notingadvantages and disadvantages of ESM for collecting data about risk perceptions.

Neglected risks, financial innovation and financial fragility

We present a standard model of financial innovation, in which intermediaries engineer securities with cash flows that investors seek, but modify two assumptions. First, investors (and possibly intermediaries) neglect certain unlikely risks. Second, investors demand securities with safe cash flows. Financial intermediaries cater to these preferences and beliefs by engineering securities perceived to be safe but exposed to neglected risks. Because the risks are neglected, security issuance is excessive. As investors eventually recognize these risks, they fly back to safety of traditional securities and markets become fragile, even without leverage, precisely because the volume of new claims is excessive.

Electronic titling: Potential and risks

Initiatives in electronic conveyancing and registration show the potential of new technologies to transform such systems, reducing costs and enhancing legal security. However,they also incur substantial risks of transferring costs and risks among registries, conveyancersand rightholders, instead of reducing them; entrenching the private interests of conveyancers,instead of increasing competition and disintermediating them; modifying the allocation of tasksin a way that leads in the long term to the debasement of registries of rights with indefeasibletitle into mere recordings of deeds; and empowering conveyancers instead of transactors andrightholders, which increases costs and reduces security. Fulfilling the promise of newtechnologies in both costs and security requires strengthening registries incentives andempowering rightholders in their interaction with registries.