909 resultados para Nonparametric Bayes
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OBJECTIVES: in a retrospective study, attempts have been made to identify individual organ-dysfunction risk profiles influencing the outcome after surgery for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms. METHODS: out of 235 patients undergoing graft replacement for abdominal aortic aneurysms, 57 (53 men, four women, mean age 72 years [s.d. 8.8]) were treated for ruptured aneurysms in a 3-year period. Forty-eight preoperative, 13 intraoperative and 34 postoperative variables were evaluated statistically. A simple multi-organ dysfunction (MOD) score was adopted. RESULTS: the perioperative mortality was 32%. Three patients died intraoperatively, four within 48 h and 11 died later. A significant influence for pre-existing risk factors was identified only for cardiovascular diseases. Multiple linear-regression analysis indicated that a haemoglobin <90 g/l, systolic blood pressure <80 mmHg and ECG signs of ischaemia at admission were highly significant risk factors. The cause of death for patients, who died more than 48 h postoperatively, was mainly MOD. All patients with a MOD score >/=4 died (n=7). These patients required 27% of the intensive-care unit (ICU) days of all patients and 72% of the ICU days of the non-survivors. CONCLUSION: patients with ruptured aortic aneurysms from treatment should not be excluded. However, a physiological scoring system after 48 h appears justifiable in order to decide on the appropriateness of continual ICU support.
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BACKGROUND: Indomethacin therapy for closure of a patent ductus arteriosus in preterm neonates is responsible for transient renal insufficiency. Dopamine theoretically reduces the renal side effects of indomethacin therapy. PATIENTS: 33 neonates with a mean gestational age of 28.5 weeks who received indomethacin for treatment of a symptomatic PDA were included in a prospective randomized controlled clinical study. METHOD: 15 patients were treated with indomethacin alone (control group), 18 patients with indomethacin and dopamine (study group). Indomethacin was given in a dose of 0.2 mg/kg/dose intravenously, all patients received three doses with intervall of 12 hours. The dose of dopamine was in all patients 4 micrograms/kg per minute commencing 2 hours prior to the first dose of indomethacin and continuing for 12 hours after the third dose. RESULTS: Indomethacin induced a significant increase in serum creatinin (76.3 mumol/l vs 99.7 mumol/l for the control group, and 70.7 mumol/l vs 93.0 mumol/l for the study group), and weight (1259 g vs 1316 g for the control group, and 1187 g vs 1221 g for the study group). The increase systolic blood pressure (61 mmHg vs 65.7 mmHg) in the study group was significant (p < 0.05) but remained unchanged in the control group. The changes between the study group and the control group were not significant either in serum creatinin, fractional excretion of sodium, or weight gain. The failure rate of ductal closure was not different between the two groups. CONCLUSION: The additional use of dopamine does not reduce the renal side effects of indomethacin.
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We investigate the evolutionary history of the greater white-toothed shrew across its distribution in northern Africa and mainland Europe using sex-specific (mtDNA and Y chromosome) and biparental (X chromosome) markers. All three loci confirm a large divergence between eastern (Tunisia and Sardinia) and western (Morocco and mainland Europe) lineages, and application of a molecular clock to mtDNA divergence estimates indicates a more ancient separation (2.25 M yr ago) than described by some previous studies, supporting claims for taxonomic revision. Moroccan ancestry for the mainland European population is inconclusive from phylogenetic trees, but is supported by greater nucleotide diversity and a more ancient population expansion in Morocco than in Europe. Signatures of rapid population expansion in mtDNA, combined with low X and Y chromosome diversity, suggest a single colonization of mainland Europe by a small number of Moroccan shrews >38 K yr ago. This study illustrates that multilocus genetic analyses can facilitate the interpretation of species' evolutionary history but that phylogeographic inference using X and Y chromosomes is restricted by low levels of observed polymorphism.
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BACKGROUND: Obesity is a major health problem in the Western world. Among obese subjects cardiac pathology is common, but conventional noninvasive imaging modalities are often suboptimal for detailed evaluation of cardiac structure and function. We investigated whether cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) can better characterize possible cardiac abnormalities associated with obesity, in the absence of other confounding comorbidities. METHODS: In this prospective cross-sectional study, CMR was used to quantify left and right ventricular volumes, ejection fraction, mass, cardiac output, and apical left ventricular rotation in 25 clinically healthy obese men and 25 age-matched lean controls. RESULTS: Obese subjects had higher left ventricular mass (203 +/- 38 g vs. 163 +/- 22 g, p < 0.001), end-diastolic volume (176 +/- 29 mL vs. 156 +/- 25 mL, p < 0.05), and cardiac output (8.2 +/- 1.2 L/min vs. 6.4 +/- 1.3 L/min, p < 0.001). The obese also had increased right ventricular mass (105 +/- 25 g vs. 87 +/- 18 g, p < 0.005) and end-diastolic volume (179 +/- 36 mL vs. 155 +/- 28 mL, p < 0.05). When indexed for height, differences in left and right ventricular mass, and left ventricular end-diastolic volume remained significant. Apical left ventricular rotation and rotational velocity patterns were also different between obese and lean subjects. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity is independently associated with remodeling of the heart. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging identifies subtle cardiac abnormalities and may be the preferred imaging technique to evaluate cardiac structure and function in the obese.
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This study aimed to assess application of ultrasound (US) combined with microbubbles (MB) to transfect the ciliary muscle of rat eyes. Reporter DNA plasmids encoding for Gaussia luciferase, β-galactosidase or the green fluorescent protein (GFP), alone or mixed with 50% Artison MB, were injected into the ciliary muscle, with or without US exposure (US set at 1 MHz, 2 W/cm(2), 50% duty cycle for 2 min). Luciferase activity was measured in ocular fluids at 7 and 30 days after sonoporation. At 1 week, the US+MB treatment showed a significant increase in luminescence compared with control eyes, injected with plasmid only, with or without MB (×2.6), and, reporter proteins were localized in the ciliary muscle by histochemical analysis. At 1 month, a significant decrease in luciferase activity was observed in all groups. A rise in lens and ciliary muscle temperature was measured during the procedure but did not result in any observable or microscopic damages at 1 and 8 days. The feasibility to transfer gene into the ciliary muscle by US and MB suggests that sonoporation may allow intraocular production of proteins for the treatment of inflammatory, angiogenic and/or degenerative retinal diseases.
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A family history of coronary artery disease (CAD), especially when the disease occurs at a young age, is a potent risk factor for CAD. DNA collection in families in which two or more siblings are affected at an early age allows identification of genetic factors for CAD by linkage analysis. We performed a genomewide scan in 1,168 individuals from 438 families, including 493 affected sibling pairs with documented onset of CAD before 51 years of age in men and before 56 years of age in women. We prospectively defined three phenotypic subsets of families: (1) acute coronary syndrome in two or more siblings; (2) absence of type 2 diabetes in all affected siblings; and (3) atherogenic dyslipidemia in any one sibling. Genotypes were analyzed for 395 microsatellite markers. Regions were defined as providing evidence for linkage if they provided parametric two-point LOD scores >1.5, together with nonparametric multipoint LOD scores >1.0. Regions on chromosomes 3q13 (multipoint LOD = 3.3; empirical P value <.001) and 5q31 (multipoint LOD = 1.4; empirical P value <.081) met these criteria in the entire data set, and regions on chromosomes 1q25, 3q13, 7p14, and 19p13 met these criteria in one or more of the subsets. Two regions, 3q13 and 1q25, met the criteria for genomewide significance. We have identified a region on chromosome 3q13 that is linked to early-onset CAD, as well as additional regions of interest that will require further analysis. These data provide initial areas of the human genome where further investigation may reveal susceptibility genes for early-onset CAD.
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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The ongoing increase in life expectancy in developed countries is associated with changes in the shape of the survival curve. These changes can be characterized by two main, distinct components: (i) the decline in premature mortality, i.e., the concentration of deaths around some high value of the mean age at death, also termed rectangularization of the survival curve; and (ii) the increase of this mean age at death, i.e., longevity, which directly reflects the reduction of mortality at advanced ages. Several recent observations suggest that both mechanisms are simultaneously taking place. METHODS: We propose a set of indicators aiming to quantify, disentangle, and compare the respective contribution of rectangularization and longevity increase to the secular increase of life expectancy. These indicators, based on a nonparametric approach, are easy to implement. RESULTS: We illustrate the method with the evolution of the Swiss mortality data between 1876 and 2006. Using our approach, we are able to say that the increase in longevity and rectangularization explain each about 50% of the secular increase of life expectancy. CONCLUSION: Our method may provide a useful tool to assess whether the contribution of rectangularization to the secular increase of life expectancy will remain around 50% or whether it will be increasing in the next few years, and thus whether concentration of mortality will eventually take place against some ultimate biological limit.
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BACKGROUND: The estimation of demographic parameters from genetic data often requires the computation of likelihoods. However, the likelihood function is computationally intractable for many realistic evolutionary models, and the use of Bayesian inference has therefore been limited to very simple models. The situation changed recently with the advent of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithms allowing one to obtain parameter posterior distributions based on simulations not requiring likelihood computations. RESULTS: Here we present ABCtoolbox, a series of open source programs to perform Approximate Bayesian Computations (ABC). It implements various ABC algorithms including rejection sampling, MCMC without likelihood, a Particle-based sampler and ABC-GLM. ABCtoolbox is bundled with, but not limited to, a program that allows parameter inference in a population genetics context and the simultaneous use of different types of markers with different ploidy levels. In addition, ABCtoolbox can also interact with most simulation and summary statistics computation programs. The usability of the ABCtoolbox is demonstrated by inferring the evolutionary history of two evolutionary lineages of Microtus arvalis. Using nuclear microsatellites and mitochondrial sequence data in the same estimation procedure enabled us to infer sex-specific population sizes and migration rates and to find that males show smaller population sizes but much higher levels of migration than females. CONCLUSION: ABCtoolbox allows a user to perform all the necessary steps of a full ABC analysis, from parameter sampling from prior distributions, data simulations, computation of summary statistics, estimation of posterior distributions, model choice, validation of the estimation procedure, and visualization of the results.
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OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence, predictors, and clinical significance of electrographic seizures (ESz) and other continuous electroencephalographic monitoring findings in critically ill patients with central nervous system infections. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Eighteen-bed neurocritical care unit. PATIENTS: We identified 42 consecutive patients with primary central nervous system infection (viral, 27 patients [64%]; bacterial, 8 patients [18%]; and fungal or parasitic, 7 patients [17%]) who underwent continuous electroencephalographic monitoring between January 1, 1996, and February 28, 2007. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Presence of ESz or periodic epileptiform discharges (PEDs). RESULTS: Electrographic seizures were recorded in 14 patients (33%), and PEDs were recorded in 17 patients (40%). Twenty patients (48%) had either PEDs or ESz. Of the 14 patients with ESz, only 5 (36%) had a clinical correlate. Periodic epileptiform discharges (odds ratio=13.4; P=.001) and viral cause (odds ratio=13.0; P=.02) were independently associated with ESz. Both ESz (odds ratio=5.9; P=.02) and PEDs (odds ratio=6.1; P=.01) were independently associated with poor outcome at discharge (severe disability, vegetative state, or death). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with central nervous system infections undergoing continuous electroencephalographic monitoring, ESz and/or PEDs were frequent, occurring in 48% of our cohort. More than half of the ESz had no clinical correlate. Both ESz and PEDs were independently associated with poor outcome. Additional studies are needed to determine whether prevention or treatment of these electrographic findings improves outcome.
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Introduction: The Thalidomide-Dexamethasone (TD) regimen has provided encouraging results in relapsed MM. To improve results, bortezomib (Velcade) has been added to the combination in previous phase II studies, the so called VTD regimen. In January 2006, the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT) and the Intergroupe Francophone du Myélome (IFM) initiated a prospective, randomized, parallel-group, open-label phase III, multicenter study, comparing VTD (arm A) with TD (arm B) for MM patients progressing or relapsing after autologous transplantation. Patients and Methods: Inclusion criteria: patients in first progression or relapse after at least one autologous transplantation, including those who had received bortezomib or thalidomide before transplant. Exclusion criteria: subjects with neuropathy above grade 1 or non secretory MM. Primary study end point was time to progression (TTP). Secondary end points included safety, response rate, progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Treatment was scheduled as follows: bortezomib 1.3 mg/m2 was given as an i.v bolus on Days 1, 4, 8 and 11 followed by a 10-Day rest period (days 12 to 21) for 8 cycles (6 months) and then on Days 1, 8, 15, 22 followed by a 20-Day rest period (days 23 to 42) for 4 cycles (6 months). In both arms, thalidomide was scheduled at 200 mg/Day orally for one year and dexamethasone 40 mg/Day orally four days every three weeks for one year. Patients reaching remission could proceed to a new stem cell harvest. However, transplantation, either autologous or allogeneic, could only be performed in patients who completed the planned one year treatment period. Response was assessed by EBMT criteria, with additional category of near complete remission (nCR). Adverse events were graded by the NCI-CTCAE, Version 3.0.The trial was based on a group sequential design, with 4 planned interim analyses and one final analysis that allowed stopping for efficacy as well as futility. The overall alpha and power were set equal to 0.025 and 0.90 respectively. The test for decision making was based on the comparison in terms of the ratio of the cause-specific hazards of relapse/progression, estimated in a Cox model stratified on the number of previous autologous transplantations. Relapse/progression cumulative incidence was estimated using the proper nonparametric estimator, the comparison was done by the Gray test. PFS and OS probabilities were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier curves, the comparison was performed by the Log-Rank test. An interim safety analysis was performed when the first hundred patients had been included. The safety committee recommended to continue the trial. Results: As of 1st July 2010, 269 patients had been enrolled in the study, 139 in France (IFM 2005-04 study), 21 in Italy, 38 in Germany, 19 in Switzerland (a SAKK study), 23 in Belgium, 8 in Austria, 8 in the Czech republic, 11 in Hungary, 1 in the UK and 1 in Israel. One hundred and sixty nine patients were males and 100 females; the median age was 61 yrs (range 29-76). One hundred and thirty six patients were randomized to receive VTD and 133 to receive TD. The current analysis is based on 246 patients (124 in arm A, 122 in arm B) included in the second interim analysis, carried out when 134 events were observed. Following this analysis, the trial was stopped because of significant superiority of VTD over TD. The remaining patients were too premature to contribute to the analysis. The number of previous autologous transplants was one in 63 vs 60 and two or more in 61 vs 62 patients in arm A vs B respectively. The median follow-up was 25 months. The median TTP was 20 months vs 15 months respectively in arm A and B, with cumulative incidence of relapse/progression at 2 years equal to 52% (95% CI: 42%-64%) vs 70% (95% CI: 61%-81%) (p=0.0004, Gray test). The same superiority of arm A was also observed when stratifying on the number of previous autologous transplantations. At 2 years, PFS was 39% (95% CI: 30%-51%) vs 23% (95% CI: 16%-34%) (A vs B, p=0.0006, Log-Rank test). OS in the first two years was comparable in the two groups. Conclusion: VTD resulted in significantly longer TTP and PFS in patients relapsing after ASCT. Analysis of response and safety data are on going and results will be presented at the meeting.
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En este documento se realiza una descripción de los trastornos de identidad de género (TIG) y de su situación a nivel nacional e internacional, teniendo en cuenta la legislación y epidemiología, con el objetivo de consolidar así una base teórica para el estudio. Se diferencian también otras patologías similares para evitar confusión o errores. Se propone un estudio cuantitativo, observacional, transversal, descriptivo y correlacional que tiene como objetivos principales evaluar los conocimientos, habilidades y actitudes necesarios del personal de enfermería para el cuidado de las personas con TIG y comparar las competencias de la enfermería de distintos niveles asistenciales. Como método de recogida de datos se utiliza un cuestionario de elaboración propia, de preguntas cerradas con múltiples opciones de respuesta. El análisis de los datos será inferencial y descriptivo, ya que el objetivo es realizar una estimación a partir de los resultados obtenidos de la muestra sobre el conjunto total de la población con la finalidad de realizar el contraste de la hipótesis formulada; para ello, se realizará la prueba no paramétrica de Chi-‐ cuadrado.
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Due to the advances in sensor networks and remote sensing technologies, the acquisition and storage rates of meteorological and climatological data increases every day and ask for novel and efficient processing algorithms. A fundamental problem of data analysis and modeling is the spatial prediction of meteorological variables in complex orography, which serves among others to extended climatological analyses, for the assimilation of data into numerical weather prediction models, for preparing inputs to hydrological models and for real time monitoring and short-term forecasting of weather.In this thesis, a new framework for spatial estimation is proposed by taking advantage of a class of algorithms emerging from the statistical learning theory. Nonparametric kernel-based methods for nonlinear data classification, regression and target detection, known as support vector machines (SVM), are adapted for mapping of meteorological variables in complex orography.With the advent of high resolution digital elevation models, the field of spatial prediction met new horizons. In fact, by exploiting image processing tools along with physical heuristics, an incredible number of terrain features which account for the topographic conditions at multiple spatial scales can be extracted. Such features are highly relevant for the mapping of meteorological variables because they control a considerable part of the spatial variability of meteorological fields in the complex Alpine orography. For instance, patterns of orographic rainfall, wind speed and cold air pools are known to be correlated with particular terrain forms, e.g. convex/concave surfaces and upwind sides of mountain slopes.Kernel-based methods are employed to learn the nonlinear statistical dependence which links the multidimensional space of geographical and topographic explanatory variables to the variable of interest, that is the wind speed as measured at the weather stations or the occurrence of orographic rainfall patterns as extracted from sequences of radar images. Compared to low dimensional models integrating only the geographical coordinates, the proposed framework opens a way to regionalize meteorological variables which are multidimensional in nature and rarely show spatial auto-correlation in the original space making the use of classical geostatistics tangled.The challenges which are explored during the thesis are manifolds. First, the complexity of models is optimized to impose appropriate smoothness properties and reduce the impact of noisy measurements. Secondly, a multiple kernel extension of SVM is considered to select the multiscale features which explain most of the spatial variability of wind speed. Then, SVM target detection methods are implemented to describe the orographic conditions which cause persistent and stationary rainfall patterns. Finally, the optimal splitting of the data is studied to estimate realistic performances and confidence intervals characterizing the uncertainty of predictions.The resulting maps of average wind speeds find applications within renewable resources assessment and opens a route to decrease the temporal scale of analysis to meet hydrological requirements. Furthermore, the maps depicting the susceptibility to orographic rainfall enhancement can be used to improve current radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting systems and to generate stochastic ensembles of precipitation fields conditioned upon the orography.
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Highway agencies spend millions of dollars to ensure safe and efficient winter travel. However, the effectiveness of winter-weather maintenance practices on safety and mobility are somewhat difficult to quantify. Safety and Mobility Impacts of Winter Weather - Phase 1 investigated opportunities for improving traffic safety on state-maintained roads in Iowa during winter-weather conditions. In Phase 2, three Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) high-priority sites were evaluated and realistic maintenance and operations mitigation strategies were also identified. In this project, site prioritization techniques for identifying roadway segments with the potential for safety improvements related to winter-weather crashes, were developed through traditional naïve statistical methods by using raw crash data for seven winter seasons and previously developed metrics. Additionally, crash frequency models were developed using integrated crash data for four winter seasons, with the objective of identifying factors that affect crash frequency during winter seasons and screening roadway segments using the empirical Bayes technique. Based on these prioritization techniques, 11 sites were identified and analyzed in conjunction with input from Iowa DOT district maintenance managers and snowplow operators and the Iowa DOT Road Weather Information System (RWIS) coordinator.
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Treball final de carrera basat en el reconeixement de punts clau en imatges mitjançant l'algorisme Random Ferns.