Accuracy vs. simplicity: a complex trade-off

Inductive learning aims at finding general rules that hold true in a database. Targeted learning seeks rules for the predictions of the value of a variable based on the values of others, as in the case of linear or non-parametric regression analysis. Non-targeted learning finds regularities without a specific prediction goal. We model the product of non-targeted learning as rules that state that a certain phenomenon never happens, or that certain conditions necessitate another. For all types of rules, there is a trade-off between the rule's accuracy and its simplicity. Thus rule selection can be viewed as a choice problem, among pairs of degree of accuracy and degree of complexity. However, one cannot in general tell what is the feasible set in the accuracy-complexity space. Formally, we show that finding out whether a point belongs to this set is computationally hard. In particular, in the context of linear regression, finding a small set of variables that obtain a certain value of R2 is computationally hard. Computational complexity may explain why a person is not always aware of rules that, if asked, she would find valid. This, in turn, may explain why one can change other people's minds (opinions, beliefs) without providing new information.

Benchmarking therapeutic drug monitoring software: A review of available computer tools

Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) aims to optimize treatments by individualizing dosage regimens based on the measurement of blood concentrations. Dosage individualization to maintain concentrations within a target range requires pharmacokinetic and clinical capabilities. Bayesian calculations currently represent the gold standard TDM approach but require computation assistance. In recent decades computer programs have been developed to assist clinicians in this assignment. The aim of this survey was to assess and compare computer tools designed to support TDM clinical activities. The literature and the Internet were searched to identify software. All programs were tested on personal computers. Each program was scored against a standardized grid covering pharmacokinetic relevance, user friendliness, computing aspects, interfacing and storage. A weighting factor was applied to each criterion of the grid to account for its relative importance. To assess the robustness of the software, six representative clinical vignettes were processed through each of them. Altogether, 12 software tools were identified, tested and ranked, representing a comprehensive review of the available software. Numbers of drugs handled by the software vary widely (from two to 180), and eight programs offer users the possibility of adding new drug models based on population pharmacokinetic analyses. Bayesian computation to predict dosage adaptation from blood concentration (a posteriori adjustment) is performed by ten tools, while nine are also able to propose a priori dosage regimens, based only on individual patient covariates such as age, sex and bodyweight. Among those applying Bayesian calculation, MM-USC*PACK© uses the non-parametric approach. The top two programs emerging from this benchmark were MwPharm© and TCIWorks. Most other programs evaluated had good potential while being less sophisticated or less user friendly. Programs vary in complexity and might not fit all healthcare settings. Each software tool must therefore be regarded with respect to the individual needs of hospitals or clinicians. Programs should be easy and fast for routine activities, including for non-experienced users. Computer-assisted TDM is gaining growing interest and should further improve, especially in terms of information system interfacing, user friendliness, data storage capability and report generation.

Pareto or log-normal? A recursive-truncation approach to the distribution of (all) cities

Traditionally, it is assumed that the population size of cities in a country follows a Pareto distribution. This assumption is typically supported by nding evidence of Zipf's Law. Recent studies question this nding, highlighting that, while the Pareto distribution may t reasonably well when the data is truncated at the upper tail, i.e. for the largest cities of a country, the log-normal distribution may apply when all cities are considered. Moreover, conclusions may be sensitive to the choice of a particular truncation threshold, a yet overlooked issue in the literature. In this paper, then, we reassess the city size distribution in relation to its sensitivity to the choice of truncation point. In particular, we look at US Census data and apply a recursive-truncation approach to estimate Zipf's Law and a non-parametric alternative test where we consider each possible truncation point of the distribution of all cities. Results con rm the sensitivity of results to the truncation point. Moreover, repeating the analysis over simulated data con rms the di culty of distinguishing a Pareto tail from the tail of a log-normal and, in turn, identifying the city size distribution as a false or a weak Pareto law.

Prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in the Seychelles according to different definitions, contribution of components, and agreement between different definitions

Background: The metabolic syndrome (MS) represents a cluster of metabolic disorders that predicts diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Several definitions exist and further descriptive and prospective data are needed to compare these definitions and their significance in different populations. Objective: We examined, in a country of the African region, i) the prevalence of MS according to three major definitions (ATP, IDF, WHO); ii) the contribution of individual MS components; and iii) the agreement between the three considered definitions. We also examined the prevalence among diabetics and non-diabetics. Methods: We conducted an examination survey in a sample representative of the general population aged 25-64 of the Seychelles (Indian Ocean, African region), attended by 1255 persons (participation rate of 80.2%). Results: The prevalence of MS was similar with either definition of MS in men (24%--25%) but differed in women (WHO: 25%, ATP: 32%; IDF: 35%). Upon exclusion of diabetic persons, the prevalence was 5-10% lower for all three MS definitions: most diabetic persons had MS although a substantial proportion of diabetic men aged 45--64 did not have MS. The following components were found most often among persons with MS: 90% had high blood pressure (HBP) and 78% had obesity (ATP); 95% had obesity and 84% had HBP (WHO), and 89% had HBP and 75% had impaired glucose regulation (IDF) - not considering impaired glucose regulation and obesity that are compulsory components of the WHO and IDF definitions, respectively. Among persons with MS based on either of the three definitions (37% of total population), less than 80% met both ATP and IDF criteria, 67% both WHO and IDF criteria, 54% both WHO and ATP criteria and only 37% met all three definitions. Conclusion: We found a fairly high prevalence of MS in an African population. However, because there was only poor agreement between the 3 MS definitions, the fairly similar proportions of MS based on ATP, IDF or WHO definitions identified, to a substantial extent, different subjects as having MS.

Loss risk through fraud in car insurance

Our objective is to analyse fraud as an operational risk for the insurance company. We study the effect of a fraud detection policy on the insurer's results account, quantifying the loss risk from the perspective of claims auditing. From the point of view of operational risk, the study aims to analyse the effect of failing to detect fraudulent claims after investigation. We have chosen VAR as the risk measure with a non-parametric estimation of the loss risk involved in the detection or non-detection of fraudulent claims. The most relevant conclusion is that auditing claims reduces loss risk in the insurance company.

Migraineurs without aura show microstructural abnormalities in the cerebellum and frontal lobe.

The involvement of the cerebellum in migraine pathophysiology is not well understood. We used a biparametric approach at high-field MRI (3 T) to assess the structural integrity of the cerebellum in 15 migraineurs with aura (MWA), 23 migraineurs without aura (MWoA), and 20 healthy controls (HC). High-resolution T1 relaxation maps were acquired together with magnetization transfer images in order to probe microstructural and myelin integrity. Clusterwise analysis was performed on T1 and magnetization transfer ratio (MTR) maps of the cerebellum of MWA, MWoA, and HC using an ANOVA and a non-parametric clusterwise permutation F test, with age and gender as covariates and correction for familywise error rate. In addition, mean MTR and T1 in frontal regions known to be highly connected to the cerebellum were computed. Clusterwise comparison among groups showed a cluster of lower MTR in the right Crus I of MWoA patients vs. HC and MWA subjects (p = 0.04). Univariate and bivariate analysis on T1 and MTR contrasts showed that MWoA patients had longer T1 and lower MTR in the right and left pars orbitalis compared to MWA (p < 0.01 and 0.05, respectively), but no differences were found with HC. Lower MTR and longer T1 point at a loss of macromolecules and/or micro-edema in Crus I and pars orbitalis in MWoA patients vs. HC and vs. MWA. The pathophysiological implications of these findings are discussed in light of recent literature.

Performance of OptiMAL® in the diagnosis of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infections in a malaria referral center in Colombia

Alternative, non-microscopic methods for the diagnosis of malaria have recently become available. Among these, rapid dipstick methods stand out. One such test, OptiMAL®, is based on the immunochromatographic detection of Plasmodium lactate dehydrogenase (pLDH) and has the capacity to detect and distinguish infections caused by P. falciparum and Plasmodium sp. This capacity is particularly important in countries where different species of Plasmodium co-exist. In this study we evaluated the performance of OptiMAL® in an urban referral center for malaria diagnosis. Two sets of patients were included: one (n = 112) having predetermined infections with P. falciparum or P. vivax and individuals with negative blood smears; and another consisting of all eligible consecutive patients (n = 80) consulting for diagnosis at the referral center during one month. The overall diagnostic efficiency of OptiMAL® for both sets of patients was 96.9%. Efficiency was higher for P. vivax (98.1%) than for P. falciparum (94.9%). These results corroborate the diagnostic utility of OptiMAL® in settings where P. vivax and P. falciparum co-exist and support its implementation where microscopic diagnosis is unavailable and in circumstances that exceed the capacity of the local microscopic diagnosis facility.

Changes associated with laboratory rearing in antennal sensilla patterns of Triatoma infestans, Rhodnius prolixus, and Rhodnius pallescens (Hemiptera, Reduviidae, Triatominae)

We examined changes in the array of antennal sensilla of three species of Triatominae (Triatoma infestans, Rhodnius prolixus, and R. pallescens) following their establishment for different periods in laboratory culture. In each case, the laboratory colonies were compared with conspecific samples taken directly from the field, by quantitative analysis of the sensilla arrays on the three distal segments of the antenna in terms of the densities of three types of chemoreceptors (basiconics and thick and thin walled trichoids) and one type of mechanoreceptor (bristles). Sensilla densities were compared by ANOVA or non-parametric tests, and by multivariate discriminant analysis. Strains of the same species reared in different laboratories showed significant differences in their sensilla arrays, especially when compared to field-collected material from the same geographic origin. A Bolivian strain of T. infestans reared in the laboratory for 15 years and fed at monthly intervals, showed greatest differences from its conspecific wild forms, especially in terms of reductions in the number of chemoreceptors. By contrast, an Argentine strain of T. infestans reared for 25 years in the laboratory and fed weekly, showed a relative increase in the density of mechanoreceptors. A Colombian strain of R. prolixus reared for 20 years and fed weekly or fortnightly, showed only modest differences in the sensilla array when compared to its wild populations from the same area. However, a Colombian strain of R. pallescens reared for 12 years and fed fortnightly, did show highly significant reductions in one form of chemoreceptor compared to its conspecific wild populations. For all populations, multivariate analysis clearly discriminated between laboratory and field collected specimens, suggesting that artificial rearing can lead to modifications in the sensory array. This not only supports the idea of morphological plasticity in these species, but also suggests caution in the use of long-established laboratory material for experimental studies designed to extrapolate the natural behaviour and physiology of these species.

Prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in the Seychelles according to different definitions, contribution of components, and agreement between different definitions

Background: The metabolic syndrome (MS) represents a cluster of metabolic disorders that predicts diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Several definitions exist and further descriptive and prospective data are needed to compare these definitions and their significance in different populations. Objective: We examined, in a country of the African region, i) the prevalence of MS according to three major definitions (ATP, IDF, WHO); ii) the contribution of individual MS components; and iii) the agreement between the three considered definitions. We also examined the prevalence among diabetics and non-diabetics. Methods: We conducted an examination survey in a sample representative of the general population aged 25-64 of the Seychelles (Indian Ocean, African region), attended by 1255 persons (participation rate of 80.2%). Results: The prevalence of MS was similar with either definition of MS in men (24%-25%) but differed in women (WHO: 25%, ATP: 32%; IDF: 35%). Upon exclusion of diabetic persons, the prevalence was 5-10% lower for all three MS definitions: most diabetic persons had MS although a substantial proportion of diabetic men aged 45-64 did not have MS. The following components were found most often among persons with MS: 90% had high blood pressure (HBP) and 78% had obesity (ATP); 95% had obesity and 84% had HBP (WHO), and 89% had HBP and 75% had impaired glucose regulation (IDF) -not considering impaired glucose regulation and obesity that are compulsory components of the WHO and IDF definitions, respectively. Among persons with MS based on either of the three definitions (37% of total population), less than 80% met both ATP and IDF criteria, 67% both WHO and IDF criteria, 54% both WHO and ATP criteria and only 37% met all three definitions. Conclusions. We found a fairly high prevalence of MS in an African population. However, because there was only poor agreement between the 3 MS definitions, the fairly similar proportions of MS based on ATP, IDF or WHO definitions identified, to a substantial extent, different subjects as having MS.

Nutritional status using the Mini Nutritional Assessment questionnaire and its relationship with bone quality in a population of institutionalized elderly women.

Malnutrition, a risk factor for osteoporotic fractures, is frequent in elderly people and, is underdiagnosed and undertreated. There are only few studies on the nutritional status of elderly people in Europe. The Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) is a non invasive and validated questionnaire to evaluate nutritional status in elderly people, classified in three groups: 1 degree score < 17: malnourished, 2 degrees score >17 and < 24: at risk of malnutrition, 3 degrees score >24: well-nourished, with a maximum of 30 points. Quantitative ultrasound of bone (QUS) is a method for assessing quality of bone which can be easily performed in nursing homes. Therefore, these two tests allowed to study the relationships between nutritional status and ultrasonic parameters of bone in 78 institutionalized women aged 86 +/- 6 years, living in 11 nursing homes around Lausanne (Switzerland). All were assessed by the MNA, had a measurement of the tricipital skin fold and of the grip strength. Functional status was evaluated by the scale "Activity of Daily Living" (ADL), and serum albumin level was measured when permitted. All had QUS of the calcaneus (with an Achilles, GE Lunar). The measured parameters are the Broadband Ultrasound Attenuation (BUA), attenuation of a band of ultrasonic frequencies through the medium, expressed in dB/MHz, and the Speed of Sound (SOS), speed of the ultrasounds through the medium, expressed in m/s. A third parameter, the stiffness index (SI), expressed as a percentage of the values obtained by the manufacturer in a young population and derived from BUA and SOS, was calculated automatically : SI = (0.67xBUA) + (0.28xSOS) - 420, expressed in percent compared to a young adult population (%YA). Fifteen percent of the women were undernourished and 58% were at risk of malnutrition. As expected, compared with the well-nourished minority, undernourished subjects had significant lower body mass index (BMI), tricipital skin fold (TSF), ADL score and albumin level (p < 0,01). The subjects "at risk of malnutrition" had significant lower BMI, ADL score (p < 0.01), tricipital skin fold and serum albumin (p < 0.05). Ultrasound parameters were low independently of the nutritional status. MNA score correlated significantly with tricipital skin fold (r = 0.508, p < 0.01), ADL (r = 0.538, p < 0.01) and albumin serum level (r = 0.409, p = 0.01). There was a trend for a correlation between the MNA and the ultrasound parameter BUA (r = 0.207, p = 0.07), whereas no correlation was found with SOS and SI. A multivariate analysis showed that tricipital skin fold and ADL explained 61% of the variance of the MNA. In conclusion, using simple and non invasive methods, this study showed that malnutrition and osteoporosis are frequent in institutionalized elderly persons in our country, and the ultrasound parameters are influenced by many others factors in addition to nutrition, especially at this age and in elderly residents of nursing homes.

The effectiveness of market intervention policies to improve diet quality and to reduce the prevalence of obesity in Spain

Our project aims at analyzing the relevance of economic factors (mainly income and other socioeconomic characteristics of Spanish households and market prices) on the prevalence of obesity in Spain and to what extent market intervention prices are effective to reduce obesity and improve the quality of the diet, and under what circumstances. In relation to the existing literature worldwide, this project is the first attempt in Spain trying to get an overall picture on the effectiveness of public policies on both food consumption and the quality of diet, on one hand, and on the prevalence of obesity on the other. The project consists of four main parts. The first part represents a critical review of the literature on the economic approach of dealing with the obesity prevalence problems, diet quality and public intervention policies. Although another important body of obesity literature is dealing with physical exercise but in this paper we will limit our attention to those studies related to food consumption respecting the scope of our study and as there are many published literature review dealing with the literature related to the physical exercise and its effect on obesity prevalence. The second part consists of a Parametric and Non-Parametric Analysis of the Role of Economic Factors on Obesity Prevalence in Spain. The third part is trying to overcome the shortcomings of many diet quality indices that have been developed during last decades, such as the Healthy Eating Index, the Diet Quality Index, the Healthy Diet Indicator, and the Mediterranean Diet Score, through the development of a new obesity specific diet quality index. While the last part of our project concentrates on the assessment of the effectiveness of market intervention policies to improve the healthiness of the Spanish Diet Using the new Exact Affine Stone Index (EASI) Demand System.

Tibio-talar arthrodesis with long anterograde nail after complex open fracture-dislocation of the ankle : P17

Introduction: Posttraumatic painful osteoarthritis of the ankle joint after fracture-dislocation often has to be treated with arthrodesis. In the presence of major soft tissue lesions and important bone loss the technique to achieve arthrodesis has to be well chosen in order to prevent hardware failure, infection of bulky implants or non-union. Methods: We present the case of a 53 year-old biker suffering of a fracture-dislocation of the ankle associated with a mayor degloving injury of the heel. After initial immobilization of the lesion by external fixation in Spain the patient was transferred to our hospital for further treatment. The degloving injury of the heel with MRSA infection was initially treated by repeated débridement, changing of the configuration of the Ex Fix and antibiotic therapy with favourable outcome. Because of the bony lesions reconstruction of the ankle-joint was juged not to be an option and arthrodesis was planned. Due to bad soft-tissue situation standard open fixtion with plate and/or screws was not wanted but an option for intramedullary nailing was taken. However the use of a standard retrograde arthrodesis nail comes with two problems: 1) Risk of infection of the heel-part of the calaneus/nail in an unstable soft tissue situation with protruding nail. And 2) talo-calcaneal arthrodesis of an initially healthy subtalar joint. Given the situation of an unstable plantar/heel flap it was decided to perform anklearthrodesis by means of an anterograde nail with static fixation in the talus and in the proximal tibia. Results:This operation was performed with minimal opening at the ankle-site in order to remove the remaining cartilage and improve direct bone to bone contact. Arthrodesis was achieved by means of an anterograde T2 Stryker tibial nail.One year after the anterograde nailing the patient walks without pain for up to 4 hours with a heel of good quality and arthrodesis is achieved. Conclusion: Tibiotalar arthrodesis in the presence of mayor soft tissue lesions and bone loss can be successfully achieved with antegrade nailing.

Markov chain montecarlo method applied to rounding zeros of compositional data: first approach

As stated in Aitchison (1986), a proper study of relative variation in a compositional data set should be based on logratios, and dealing with logratios excludes dealing with zeros. Nevertheless, it is clear that zero observations might be present in real data sets, either because the corresponding part is completelyabsent –essential zeros– or because it is below detection limit –rounded zeros. Because the second kind of zeros is usually understood as “a trace too small to measure”, it seems reasonable to replace them by a suitable small value, and this has been the traditional approach. As stated, e.g. by Tauber (1999) and byMartín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2000), the principal problem in compositional data analysis is related to rounded zeros. One should be careful to use a replacement strategy that does not seriously distort the general structure of the data. In particular, the covariance structure of the involvedparts –and thus the metric properties– should be preserved, as otherwise further analysis on subpopulations could be misleading. Following this point of view, a non-parametric imputation method isintroduced in Martín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2000). This method is analyzed in depth by Martín-Fernández, Barceló-Vidal, and Pawlowsky-Glahn (2003) where it is shown that thetheoretical drawbacks of the additive zero replacement method proposed in Aitchison (1986) can be overcome using a new multiplicative approach on the non-zero parts of a composition. The new approachhas reasonable properties from a compositional point of view. In particular, it is “natural” in the sense thatit recovers the “true” composition if replacement values are identical to the missing values, and it is coherent with the basic operations on the simplex. This coherence implies that the covariance structure of subcompositions with no zeros is preserved. As a generalization of the multiplicative replacement, in thesame paper a substitution method for missing values on compositional data sets is introduced

When zero doesn't mean it and other geomathematical mischief

There is almost not a case in exploration geology, where the studied data doesn’tincludes below detection limits and/or zero values, and since most of the geological dataresponds to lognormal distributions, these “zero data” represent a mathematicalchallenge for the interpretation.We need to start by recognizing that there are zero values in geology. For example theamount of quartz in a foyaite (nepheline syenite) is zero, since quartz cannot co-existswith nepheline. Another common essential zero is a North azimuth, however we canalways change that zero for the value of 360°. These are known as “Essential zeros”, butwhat can we do with “Rounded zeros” that are the result of below the detection limit ofthe equipment?Amalgamation, e.g. adding Na2O and K2O, as total alkalis is a solution, but sometimeswe need to differentiate between a sodic and a potassic alteration. Pre-classification intogroups requires a good knowledge of the distribution of the data and the geochemicalcharacteristics of the groups which is not always available. Considering the zero valuesequal to the limit of detection of the used equipment will generate spuriousdistributions, especially in ternary diagrams. Same situation will occur if we replace thezero values by a small amount using non-parametric or parametric techniques(imputation).The method that we are proposing takes into consideration the well known relationshipsbetween some elements. For example, in copper porphyry deposits, there is always agood direct correlation between the copper values and the molybdenum ones, but whilecopper will always be above the limit of detection, many of the molybdenum values willbe “rounded zeros”. So, we will take the lower quartile of the real molybdenum valuesand establish a regression equation with copper, and then we will estimate the“rounded” zero values of molybdenum by their corresponding copper values.The method could be applied to any type of data, provided we establish first theircorrelation dependency.One of the main advantages of this method is that we do not obtain a fixed value for the“rounded zeros”, but one that depends on the value of the other variable.Key words: compositional data analysis, treatment of zeros, essential zeros, roundedzeros, correlation dependency

U.S. subprime financial crisis contagion on BRIC and European Union stock markets

ABSTRACTThe Copula Theory was used to analyze contagion among the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and European Union stock markets with the U.S. Equity Market. The market indexes used for the period between January 01, 2005 and February 27, 2010 are: MXBRIC (BRIC), MXEU (European Union) and MXUS (United States). This article evaluated the adequacy of the main copulas found in the financial literature using log-likelihood, Akaike information and Bayesian information criteria. This article provides a groundbreaking study in the area of contagion due to the use of conditional copulas, allowing to calculate the correlation increase between indexes with non-parametric approach. The conditional Symmetrized Joe-Clayton copula was the one that fitted better to the considered pairs of returns. Results indicate evidence of contagion effect in both markets, European Union and BRIC members, with a 5% significance level. Furthermore, there is also evidence that the contagion of U.S. financial crisis was more pronounced in the European Union than in the BRIC markets, with a 5% significance level. Therefore, stock portfolios formed by equities from the BRIC countries were able to offer greater protection during the subprime crisis. The results are aligned with recent papers that present an increase in correlation between stock markets, especially in bear markets.