Valuation of ecosystem goods and services. Part 2: Implications of unpredictable novel change

This is the second part of a two-part paper which offers a new approach to the valuation of ecosystem goods and services. In the first part a simple pre-industrial model was introduced to show how the interdependencies between the three subsystems, society, economy and nature, influence values, and how values change over time. In this second part the assumption of perfect foresight is dropped. I argue that due to novelty and complexity ex ante unpredictable change occurs within the three subsystems society, economy and nature. Again the simple pre-industrial model, which was introduced in part 1, serves as a simple paradigm to show how unpredictable novel change limits the possibility to derive accurate estimates of values.

The Gender of Chinese Christianity: Evaluating a New Research Perspective

This paper will discuss how the gender perspective can be applied to the study of the Early Modern Jesuit China mission. I will show that the category of gender provides a promising research perspective on Sino-Western cultural exchange, for it brings to the forefront important aspects of social life in the “contact zone” of Chinese Christian communities. I will argue that through the intercultural contact initiated by the Jesuit China mission, gender roles started to shift slightly on both sides. On the one hand, the Jesuits adopted the Confucian ideal of the separation of the sexes (nannü zhi bie), building for example separate Churches for women, something unknown in Europe. On the other hand, Chinese Christians were urged to reconsider aspects of their traditional gender norms, when for instance some men left their concubines in order to become Christian. The paper will be divided in three parts. First, it will focus on the history of concepts and discuss what gender relations meant in the context of the Early Modern China mission. Then it will turn to the representation of female religiosity in Jesuit Annual Letters and show how the gender perspective can lead to a re-evaluation this source genre. Finally, it will reflect on how the gender perspective can give us fresh insights into well-known paradigms on Sino-Western relations, taking the accommodation paradigm as an example.

The New Concept of Universal Service in a Digital Networked Communications Environment

Digitization, sophisticated fiber-optic networks and the resultant convergence of the media, communications and information technology industries have completely transformed the communications ecosystem in the last couple of decades. New contingent business and social models were created that have been mirrored in the amended communications regimes. Yet, despite an overhaul of the communications regulation paradigm, the status of and the rules on universal service have remained surprisingly intact, both during and after the liberalization exercise. The present paper looks into this paradox and examines the sustainability of the existing concept of universal service. It suggests that there is a need for a novel concept of universal service in the digital networked communications environment, whose objectives go beyond the conventional internalizing and redistributional rationales and concentrate on communication and information networks as a public good, where not only access to infrastructure but also access to content may be essential.

A new methodical approach in neuroscience: assessing inter-personal brain coupling using functional near-infrared imaging (fNIRI) hyperscanning

Since the first demonstration of how to simultaneously measure brain activity using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) on two subjects about 10 years ago, a new paradigm in neuroscience is emerging: measuring brain activity from two or more people simultaneously, termed "hyperscanning". The hyperscanning approach has the potential to reveal inter-personal brain mechanisms underlying interaction-mediated brain-to-brain coupling. These mechanisms are engaged during real social interactions, and cannot be captured using single-subject recordings. In particular, functional near-infrared imaging (fNIRI) hyperscanning is a promising new method, offering a cost-effective, easy to apply and reliable technology to measure inter-personal interactions in a natural context. In this short review we report on fNIRI hyperscanning studies published so far and summarize opportunities and challenges for future studies.

Colors in Mind: A Novel Paradigm to Investigate Pure Color Imagery

Mental color imagery abilities are commonly measured using paradigms that involve naming, judging, or comparing the colors of visual mental images of well-known objects (e.g., “Is a sunflower darker yellow than a lemon”?). Although this approach is widely used in patient studies, differences in the ability to perform such color comparisons might simply reflect participants’ general knowledge of object colors rather than their ability to generate accurate visual mental images of the colors of the objects. The aim of the present study was to design a new color imagery paradigm. Participants were asked to visualize a color for 3 s and then to determine a visually presented color by pressing 1 of 6 keys. The authors reasoned that participants would react faster when the imagined and perceived colors were congruent than when they were incongruent. In Experiment 1, participants were slower in incongruent than congruent trials but only when they were instructed to visualize the colors. The results in Experiment 2 demonstrate that the congruency effect reported in Experiment 1 cannot be attributed to verbalization of the color that had to be visualized. Finally, in Experiment 3, the congruency effect evoked by mental imagery correlated with performance in a perceptual version of the task. The authors discuss these findings with respect to the mechanisms that underlie mental imagery and patients suffering from color imagery deficits.

The geography of large-scale land acquisitions: Analysing socio-ecological patterns of target contexts in the global South

This paper analyses local geographical contexts targeted by transnational large-scale land acquisitions (>200 ha per deal) in order to understand how emerging patterns of socio-ecological characteristics can be related to processes of large-scale foreign investment in land. Using a sample of 139 land deals georeferenced with high spatial accuracy, we first analyse their target contexts in terms of land cover, population density, accessibility, and indicators for agricultural potential. Three distinct patterns emerge from the analysis: densely populated and easily accessible croplands (35% of land deals); remote forestlands with lower population densities (34% of land deals); and moderately populated and moderately accessible shrub- or grasslands (26% of land deals). These patterns are consistent with processes described in the relevant case study literature, and they each involve distinct types of stakeholders and associated competition over land. We then repeat the often-cited analysis that postulates a link between land investments and target countries with abundant so-called “idle” or “marginal” lands as measured by yield gap and available suitable but uncultivated land; our methods differ from the earlier approach, however, in that we examine local context (10-km radius) rather than countries as a whole. The results show that earlier findings are disputable in terms of concepts, methods, and contents. Further, we reflect on methodologies for exploring linkages between socioecological patterns and land investment processes. Improving and enhancing large datasets of georeferenced land deals is an important next step; at the same time, careful choice of the spatial scale of analysis is crucial for ensuring compatibility between the spatial accuracy of land deal locations and the resolution of available geospatial data layers. Finally, we argue that new approaches and methods must be developed to empirically link socio-ecological patterns in target contexts to key determinants of land investment processes. This would help to improve the validity and the reach of our findings as an input for evidence-informed policy debates.

Human and ecological risk assessment of a crop protection chemical: a case study with the azole fungicide epoxiconazole.

Conventional risk assessments for crop protection chemicals compare the potential for causing toxicity (hazard identification) to anticipated exposure. New regulatory approaches have been proposed that would exclude exposure assessment and just focus on hazard identification based on endocrine disruption. This review comprises a critical analysis of hazard, focusing on the relative sensitivity of endocrine and non-endocrine endpoints, using a class of crop protection chemicals, the azole fungicides. These were selected because they are widely used on important crops (e.g. grains) and thereby can contact target and non-target plants and enter the food chain of humans and wildlife. Inhibition of lanosterol 14α-demethylase (CYP51) mediates the antifungal effect. Inhibition of other CYPs, such as aromatase (CYP19), can lead to numerous toxicological effects, which are also evident from high dose human exposures to therapeutic azoles. Because of its widespread use and substantial database, epoxiconazole was selected as a representative azole fungicide. Our critical analysis concluded that anticipated human exposure to epoxiconazole would yield a margin of safety of at least three orders of magnitude for reproductive effects observed in laboratory rodent studies that are postulated to be endocrine-driven (i.e. fetal resorptions). The most sensitive ecological species is the aquatic plant Lemna (duckweed), for which the margin of safety is less protective than for human health. For humans and wildlife, endocrine disruption is not the most sensitive endpoint. It is concluded that conventional risk assessment, considering anticipated exposure levels, will be protective of both human and ecological health. Although the toxic mechanisms of other azole compounds may be similar, large differences in potency will require a case-by-case risk assessment.

Dynamics of Traditional Ecological Knowledge, Local Use and Conservation of Native Trees and Shrubs in the Bolivian Andes

Native trees and shrubs are essential components of rural landscapes in the semi-arid inner-Andean valleys of Bolivia. They can be found as hedges and bushes in various agroecosystems such as terrace walls, slopes, field boundaries and fallow land. Their distribution and floristic composition are the result of dynamic spatial and temporal interactions between local farmers and the environment. Local uses of natural resources and biodiversity reflect the constantly evolving Andean culture, which can be generally characterised as an intertwining of the human, natural, and spiritual worlds. The aim of the present ethnobotanical study was to analyse the dynamics of traditional ecological knowledge, to ascertain local farmers’ perceptions and uses of native woody species in Andean communities and to associate the results with local conservation activities for the trees and shrubs concerned. Our case study was carried out within two communities of the Tunari National Park (Dept. Cochabamba) in Bolivia. For data collection, research methods from social science (semi-structured interviews, participative observation, participatory mapping) as well as vegetation surveys were combined. Local actors included women and men of all ages as well as families from different social categories and altitudinal levels of permanent residence. Our study indicates that, due to a multitude of socio-economic pressures (e.g. migration of young people) as well as changes in use of biodiversity (e.g. replacement of native by exotic introduced species), the traditional ecological knowledge base of native trees and shrubs and their respective uses has become diminished over time. In many cases it has led to a decline in people’s awareness of native species and as a consequence their practical, emotional and spiritual relationships with them have been lost. However, results also show that applied traditional ecological knowledge has led to local conservation strategies, which have succeeded in protecting those tree and shrub species which are most widely regarded for their multifunctional, constant and exclusive uses (e.g. Schinus molle, Prosopis laevigata, Baccharis dracunculifolia). The presentation will discuss the question if and how applied traditional ecological knowledge positively contributes to local initiatives of sustainable use and conservation of biodiversity in rural areas.

Religious Diversity and Religious Vitality: New Measuring Strategies and Empirical Evidence

Quantitative studies of the conditions and consequences of religious diversity are based mostly on indices that measure the variety of religious membership in a particular region. However, this line of research has become stagnant, and the question of whether diversity affects religious vitality remains unanswered. This article attempts to shed new light on the discussion by measuring religious diversity differently and capturing religious vitality independently of membership figures. In particular, it contrasts the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index based on membership proportions with a second measure of diversity: an index of organizational diversity. Conversely, the dependent variable religious vitality is measured not by using rates of participation in religious organizations but via the Centrality of Religion Scale. Based on ecological and individual level data of forty-three local regions in Finland, Germany, and Slovenia and using multilevel analysis, our results suggest that religious diversity is related to religious vitality. However, the nature of this association differs across subgroups.

Combining qualitative and quantitative methods to analyze serious games outcomes: A pilot study for a new cognitive screening tool

Computer games for a serious purpose - so called serious games can provide additional information for the screening and diagnosis of cognitive impairment. Moreover, they have the advantage of being an ecological tool by involving daily living tasks. However, there is a need for better comprehensive designs regarding the acceptance of this technology, as the target population is older adults that are not used to interact with novel technologies. Moreover given the complexity of the diagnosis and the need for precise assessment, an evaluation of the best approach to analyze the performance data is required. The present study examines the usability of a new screening tool and proposes several new outlines for data analysis.

Expected impact of applying new 2013 AHA/ACC cholesterol guidelines criteria on the recommended lipid target achievement after acute coronary syndromes.

BACKGROUND 2013 AHA/ACC guidelines on the treatment of cholesterol advised to tailor high-intensity statin after ACS, while previous ATP-III recommended titration of statin to reach low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) targets. We simulated the impact of this change of paradigm on the achievement of recommended targets. METHODS Among a prospective cohort study of consecutive patients hospitalized for ACS from 2009 to 2012 at four Swiss university hospitals, we analyzed 1602 patients who survived one year after recruitment. Targets based on the previous guidelines approach was defined as (1) achievement of LDL-C target < 1.8 mmol/l, (2) reduction of LDL-C ≥ 50% or (3) intensification of statin in patients who did not reach LDL-C targets. Targets based on the 2013 AHA/ACC guidelines approach was defined as the maximization of statin therapy at high-intensity in patients aged ≤75 years and moderate- or high-intensity statin in patients >75 years. RESULTS 1578 (99%) patients were prescribed statin at discharge, with 1120 (70%) at high-intensity. 1507 patients (94%) reported taking statin at one year, with 909 (57%) at high-intensity. Among 482 patients discharged with sub-maximal statin, intensification of statin was only observed in 109 patients (23%). 773 (47%) patients reached the previous LDL-C targets, while 1014 (63%) reached the 2013 AHA/ACC guidelines targetsone year after ACS (p value < 0.001). CONCLUSION The application of the new 2013 AHA/ACC guidelines criteria would substantially increase the proportion of patients achieving recommended lipid targets one year after ACS. Clinical trial number, NCT01075868.

Seagrass biofilm communities at a naturally CO2-rich vent at Papua New Guinea

Seagrass meadows are a crucial component of tropical marine reef ecosystems. The seagrass plants are colonized by a multitude of epiphytic organisms that contribute to determining the ecological role of seagrasses. To better understand how environmental changes like ocean acidification might affect epiphytic assemblages, the microbial community composition of the epiphytic biofilm of Enhalus acroides was investigated at a natural CO2 vent in Papua New Guinea using molecular fingerprinting and next generation sequencing of 16S and 18S rRNA genes. Both bacterial and eukaryotic epiphytes formed distinct communities at the CO2-impacted site compared to the control site. This site-related CO2 effect was also visible in the succession pattern of microbial epiphytes. We further found an increased abundance of bacterial types associated with coral diseases at the CO2-impacted site (Fusobacteria, Thalassomonas) whereas eukaryotes such as certain crustose coralline algae commonly related to healthy reefs were less diverse. These trends in the epiphytic community of E. acroides suggest a potential role of seagrasses as vectors of coral pathogens and may support previous predictions of a decrease in reef health and prevalence of diseases under future ocean acidification scenarios.

(Table 1) Annual gross and new primary production rates obtained for areas centered on the AWI-HAUSGARTEN mooring (2000-2005)

The lack of extended dataset has so far prevented an inclusive understanding of the long-term relationships between primary production (PP) and vertical export in the Arctic Ocean. It is urgent to investigate these connections as Arctic ecosystems are on the verge of climate-related shifts, which could be caused by the combined effects of increase in Pacific and Atlantic inflow, climate warming, and sea ice decline. For a period of 6 years we investigated the degree of coupling between PP and export by making use of modelled PP rates and vertical particle fluxes collected with sediment traps moored at ~300 m depth in the eastern Fram Strait. Our analyses indicate that total and new simulated PP averaged for different areas centered on the mooring location (5-200 km radius) explain at best 20-44% of the observed biogenic particle fluxes at 300 m, when applying extended time-lags (55-90 days) between PP and vertical fluxes. Based on this phasing, we define a conceptual framework that presents the temporal dimension as a prime determinant of the maximum strength of the PP-export coupling at a given depth. Our results support that planktonic food webs in the Fram Strait process heavily biogenic material in the epipelagic zone, but we further suggest that Atlantic-Arctic water interactions induce a particular ecological setting responsible for the extended turn-over. In conclusion, we hypothesize that global warming could promote a transition toward a more retentive ecosystem in the Fram Strait region despite the likely increase of pelagic PP in the Arctic Ocean.

A new approach for the validation of conceptual holonic constructions

The concepts of holon and holarchy were first applied in the manufacturing world to develop Holonic Manufacturing Systems. Since then, they have been used in many fields and have proved to be applicable concepts for developing applications in any business area. Resulting applications are based on conceptual holonic constructions. Like any model, a holarchy needs to be validated under real circumstances. Such validation assures the quality of the holarchy before it is implemented. In general, validation research tends to target: 1) the specific types of holons handled in each proposal and/or the selected development paradigms; and 2) algorithm performance rather than architecture quality. This paper proposes and evaluates a methodology that focuses on the quality of the architecture. This methodology is able to validate any holonic architecture built to meet trade requirements. Moreover, this is a general-purpose methodology. Therefore, the methodology would be valid for any domain and would not be invalidated by holon types and/or implementation paradigms emerging, changing or falling into disuse. For this purpose, we consider holonic architectures as conceptual models, using the pure holon and holarchy concepts and passing up not only any specific implementation paradigm but also any set of specific holon types.

An ecological approach to anomaly detection: the EIA Model.

The presented work proposes a new approach for anomaly detection. This approach is based on changes in a population of evolving agents under stress. If conditions are appropriate, changes in the population (modeled by the bioindicators) are representative of the alterations to the environment. This approach, based on an ecological view, improves functionally traditional approaches to the detection of anomalies. To verify this assertion, experiments based on Network Intrussion Detection Systems are presented. The results are compared with the behaviour of other bioinspired approaches and machine learning techniques.