Semiparametric Estimation of Models for Natural Direct and Indirect Effects

In recent years, researchers in the health and social sciences have become increasingly interested in mediation analysis. Specifically, upon establishing a non-null total effect of an exposure, investigators routinely wish to make inferences about the direct (indirect) pathway of the effect of the exposure not through (through) a mediator variable that occurs subsequently to the exposure and prior to the outcome. Natural direct and indirect effects are of particular interest as they generally combine to produce the total effect of the exposure and therefore provide insight on the mechanism by which it operates to produce the outcome. A semiparametric theory has recently been proposed to make inferences about marginal mean natural direct and indirect effects in observational studies (Tchetgen Tchetgen and Shpitser, 2011), which delivers multiply robust locally efficient estimators of the marginal direct and indirect effects, and thus generalizes previous results for total effects to the mediation setting. In this paper we extend the new theory to handle a setting in which a parametric model for the natural direct (indirect) effect within levels of pre-exposure variables is specified and the model for the observed data likelihood is otherwise unrestricted. We show that estimation is generally not feasible in this model because of the curse of dimensionality associated with the required estimation of auxiliary conditional densities or expectations, given high-dimensional covariates. We thus consider multiply robust estimation and propose a more general model which assumes a subset but not all of several working models holds.

Anticancer drugs from nature--natural products as a unique source of new microtubule-stabilizing agents

This review article provides an overview on the current state of research in the area of microtubule-stabilizing agents from natural sources, with a primary focus on the biochemistry, biology, and pharmacology associated with these compounds. A variety of natural products have been discovered over the last decade to inhibit human cancer cell proliferation through a taxol-like mechanism. These compounds represent a whole new range of structurally diverse lead structures for anticancer drug discovery.

New natural noncannabinoid ligands for cannabinoid type-2 (CB2) receptors

Since the discovery that Delta 9-tetrahydrocannabinol and related cannabinoids from Cannabis sativa L. act on specific physiological receptors in the human body and the subsequent elucidation of the mammalian endogenous cannabinoid system, no other natural product class has been reported to mimic the effects of cannabinoids. We recently found that N-alkyl amides from purple coneflower (Echinacea spp.) constitute a new class of cannabinomimetics, which specifically engage and activate the cannabinoid type-2 (CB2) receptors. Cannabinoid type-1 (CB1) and CB2 receptors belong to the family of G protein-coupled receptors and are the primary targets of the endogenous cannabinoids N-arachidonoyl ethanolamine and 2-arachidonoyl glyerol. CB2 receptors are believed to play an important role in distinct pathophysiological processes, including metabolic dysregulation, inflammation, pain, and bone loss. CB2 receptors have, therefore, become of interest as new targets in drug discovery. This review focuses on N-alkyl amide secondary metabolites from plants and underscores that this group of compounds may provide novel lead structures for the development of CB2-directed drugs.

Applications of Stable Isotope Ratio Analysis for Social Science Research

Stable Isotope Ratio Analysis (SIRA) is the measurement of variation in different isotopes of same elements in a material. This technique is well-established in the natural sciences and has been long part of the methodological arsenal in fields such as geology and biology. More recently this technique has begun to be utilized in the social sciences, moving from initial applications in anthropology to potential uses in geography, public health, forensic science, and others. This presentation will discuss the techniques behind SIRA, examples of current applications in the natural and social sciences, and potential avenues of future research.

Research Partnerships for Addressing Global Challenges: Opening Speech

Humankind today is challenged by numerous threats brought about by global change. Climate has been and is being modified by human activities, which calls for mitigation and adaptation measures at an unprecedented scale. Natural resources have been degraded by human development by means of land cover and land use changes, for which protective and restoration measures have to be taken by land users and governments in most countries of the North and South. Low levels of economic development and insufficient policies in most developing countries have led to widespread poverty, which affects nearly half of the world’s population and directly threatens almost one billion people. Finally, uncontrolled economic growth has increased disparities between and within populations and has led to widespread environmental problems in many nations. Generating and sharing knowledge is a key to addressing such global challenges. Knowledge can be used to develop the best solutions and to avoid or repair threats. Research partnerships have proven to be suitable means to bridge the divides and disparities between knowledge societies and developing countries, thereby reducing gaps. Research partnerships are tools for further capacity development and thereby lead to societal empowerment. Institutional settings allowing for research partnerships are needed both in the North and the South, so that the different networks can work together in a long-term enabling environment.

They're Natural and Everywhere: How Evaluative Practices Permeate the Organization

How do evaluative practices become natural and ubiquitous in an organization? In this paper we integrate findings from previous empirical work on the adoption of evaluative practices in organizations with insights from institutional theory and social psychology research for advancing the understanding of possible states of evaluative practices within organizations and the processes through which organizations become permeated by evaluative practices. Our conceptual model suggests that once evaluative practices have gained a foothold in an organization, they tend to be applied to an increasing number of organizational problems and become taken for granted.

Lake sediments as natural seismographs: A compiled record of Late Quaternary earthquakes in Central Switzerland and its implication for Alpine deformation

Central Switzerland lies tectonically in an intraplate area and recurrence rates of strong earthquakes exceed the time span covered by historic chronicles. However, many lakes are present in the area that act as natural seismographs: their continuous, datable and high-resolution sediment succession allows extension of the earthquake catalogue to pre-historic times. This study reviews and compiles available data sets and results from more than 10 years of lacustrine palaeoseismological research in lakes of northern and Central Switzerland. The concept of using lacustrine mass-movement event stratigraphy to identify palaeo-earthquakes is showcased by presenting new data and results from Lake Zurich. The Late Glacial to Holocene mass-movement units in this lake document a complex history of varying tectonic and environmental impacts. Results include sedimentary evidence of three major and three minor, simultaneously triggered basin-wide lateral slope failure events interpreted as the fingerprints of palaeoseismic activity. A refined earthquake catalogue, which includes results from previous lake studies, reveals a non-uniform temporal distribution of earthquakes in northern and Central Switzerland. A higher frequency of earthquakes in the Late Glacial and Late Holocene period documents two different phases of neotectonic activity; they are interpreted to be related to isostatic post-glacial rebound and relatively recent (re-)activation of seismogenic zones, respectively. Magnitudes and epicentre reconstructions for the largest identified earthquakes provide evidence for two possible earthquake sources: (i) a source area in the region of the Alpine or Sub-Alpine Front due to release of accumulated north-west/south-east compressional stress related to an active basal thrust beneath the Aar massif; and (ii) a source area beneath the Alpine foreland due to reactivation of deep-seated strike-slip faults. Such activity has been repeatedly observed instrumentally, for example, during the most recent magnitude 4.2 and 3.5 earthquakes of February 2012, near Zug. The combined lacustrine record from northern and Central Switzerland indicates that at least one of these potential sources has been capable of producing magnitude 6.2 to 6.7 events in the past.

Persistent infections after natural transmission of bovine viral diarrhoea virus from cattle to goats and among goats

Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) is an economically important pathogen of cattle worldwide. Infection of a pregnant animal may lead to persistent infection of the foetus and birth of a persistently infected (PI) calf that sheds the virus throughout its life. However, BVD viruses are not strictly species specific. BVDV has been isolated from many domesticated and wild ruminants. This is of practical importance as virus reservoirs in non-bovine hosts may hamper BVDV control in cattle. A goat given as a social companion to a BVDV PI calf gave birth to a PI goat kid. In order to test if goat to goat infections were possible, seronegative pregnant goats were exposed to the PI goat. In parallel, seronegative pregnant goats were kept together with the PI calf. Only the goat to goat transmission resulted in the birth of a next generation of BVDV PI kids whereas all goats kept together with the PI calf aborted. To our knowledge, this is the first report which shows that a PI goat cannot only transmit BVD virus to other goats but that such transmission may indeed lead to the birth of a second generation of PI goats. Genetic analyses indicated that establishment in the new host species may be associated with step-wise adaptations in the viral genome. Thus, goats have the potential to be a reservoir for BVDV. However, the PI goats showed growth retardation and anaemia and their survival under natural conditions remains questionable.