Effective diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease by means of large margin-based methodology.

BACKGROUND Functional brain images such as Single-Photon Emission Computed Tomography (SPECT) and Positron Emission Tomography (PET) have been widely used to guide the clinicians in the Alzheimer's Disease (AD) diagnosis. However, the subjectivity involved in their evaluation has favoured the development of Computer Aided Diagnosis (CAD) Systems. METHODS It is proposed a novel combination of feature extraction techniques to improve the diagnosis of AD. Firstly, Regions of Interest (ROIs) are selected by means of a t-test carried out on 3D Normalised Mean Square Error (NMSE) features restricted to be located within a predefined brain activation mask. In order to address the small sample-size problem, the dimension of the feature space was further reduced by: Large Margin Nearest Neighbours using a rectangular matrix (LMNN-RECT), Principal Component Analysis (PCA) or Partial Least Squares (PLS) (the two latter also analysed with a LMNN transformation). Regarding the classifiers, kernel Support Vector Machines (SVMs) and LMNN using Euclidean, Mahalanobis and Energy-based metrics were compared. RESULTS Several experiments were conducted in order to evaluate the proposed LMNN-based feature extraction algorithms and its benefits as: i) linear transformation of the PLS or PCA reduced data, ii) feature reduction technique, and iii) classifier (with Euclidean, Mahalanobis or Energy-based methodology). The system was evaluated by means of k-fold cross-validation yielding accuracy, sensitivity and specificity values of 92.78%, 91.07% and 95.12% (for SPECT) and 90.67%, 88% and 93.33% (for PET), respectively, when a NMSE-PLS-LMNN feature extraction method was used in combination with a SVM classifier, thus outperforming recently reported baseline methods. CONCLUSIONS All the proposed methods turned out to be a valid solution for the presented problem. One of the advances is the robustness of the LMNN algorithm that not only provides higher separation rate between the classes but it also makes (in combination with NMSE and PLS) this rate variation more stable. In addition, their generalization ability is another advance since several experiments were performed on two image modalities (SPECT and PET).

Application of the european customer satisfaction index to postal services. Structural equation models versus partial least squars

Customer satisfaction and retention are key issues for organizations in today’s competitive market place. As such, much research and revenue has been invested in developing accurate ways of assessing consumer satisfaction at both the macro (national) and micro (organizational) level, facilitating comparisons in performance both within and between industries. Since the instigation of the national customer satisfaction indices (CSI), partial least squares (PLS) has been used to estimate the CSI models in preference to structural equation models (SEM) because they do not rely on strict assumptions about the data. However, this choice was based upon some misconceptions about the use of SEM’s and does not take into consideration more recent advances in SEM, including estimation methods that are robust to non-normality and missing data. In this paper, both SEM and PLS approaches were compared by evaluating perceptions of the Isle of Man Post Office Products and Customer service using a CSI format. The new robust SEM procedures were found to be advantageous over PLS. Product quality was found to be the only driver of customer satisfaction, while image and satisfaction were the only predictors of loyalty, thus arguing for the specificity of postal services

31/12/19, crue de la Seine [square du Vert-Galant] : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 57421

31/12/19, [crue de la Seine], le [square du] Vert-Galant : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 57416

Guidelines for the Conversion of Urban Four-Lane Undivided Roadways to Three-Lane Two-Way Left-turn Lane Facilities, April 2001

Four-lane undivided roadways in urban areas can experience a degradation of service and/or safety as traffic volumes increase. In fact, the existence of turning vehicles on this type of roadway has a dramatic effect on both of these factors. The solution identified for these problems is typically the addition of a raised median or two-way left-turn lane (TWLTL). The mobility and safety benefits of these actions have been proven and are discussed in the “Past Research” chapter of this report along with some general cross section selection guidelines. The cost and right-of-way impacts of these actions are widely accepted. These guidelines focus on the evaluation and analysis of an alternative to the typical four-lane undivided cross section improvement approach described above. It has been found that the conversion of a four-lane undivided cross section to three lanes (i.e., one lane in each direction and a TWLTL) can improve safety and maintain an acceptable level of service. These guidelines summarize the results of past research in this area (which is almost nonexistent) and qualitative/quantitative before-and-after safety and operational impacts of case study conversions located throughout the United States and Iowa. Past research confirms that this type of conversion is acceptable or feasible in some situations but for the most part fails to specifically identify those situations. In general, the reviewed case study conversions resulted in a reduction of average or 85th percentile speeds (typically less than five miles per hour) and a relatively dramatic reduction in excessive speeding (a 60 to 70 percent reduction in the number of vehicles traveling five miles per hour faster than the posted speed limit was measured in two cases) and total crashes (reductions between 17 to 62 percent were measured). The 13 roadway conversions considered had average daily traffic volumes of 8,400 to 14,000 vehicles per day (vpd) in Iowa and 9,200 to 24,000 vehicles per day elsewhere. In addition to past research and case study results, a simulation sensitivity analysis was completed to investigate and/or confirm the operational impacts of a four-lane undivided to three-lane conversion. First, the advantages and disadvantages of different corridor simulation packages were identified for this type of analysis. Then, the CORridor SIMulation (CORSIM) software was used x to investigate and evaluate several characteristics related to the operational feasibility of a four-lane undivided to three-lane conversion. Simulated speed and level of service results for both cross sections were documented for different total peak-hour traffic, access densities, and access-point left-turn volumes (for a case study corridor defined by the researchers). These analyses assisted with the identification of the considerations for the operational feasibility determination of a four -lane to three-lane conversion. The results of the simulation analyses primarily confirmed the case study impacts. The CORSIM results indicated only a slight decrease in average arterial speed for through vehicles can be expected for a large range of peak-hour volumes, access densities, and access-point left-turn volumes (given the assumptions and design of the corridor case study evaluated). Typically, the reduction in the simulated average arterial speed (which includes both segment and signal delay) was between zero and four miles per hour when a roadway was converted from a four-lane undivided to a three-lane cross section. The simulated arterial level of service for a converted roadway, however, showed a decrease when the bi-directional peak-hour volume was about 1,750 vehicles per hour (or 17,500 vehicles per day if 10 percent of the daily volume is assumed to occur in the peak hour). Past research by others, however, indicates that 12,000 vehicles per day may be the operational capacity (i.e., level of service E) of a three-lane roadway due to vehicle platooning. The simulation results, along with past research and case study results, appear to support following volume-related feasibility suggestions for four-lane undivided to three-lane cross section conversions. It is recommended that a four-lane undivided to three-lane conversion be considered as a feasible (with respect to volume only) option when bi-directional peak-hour volumes are less than 1,500 vehicles per hour, but that some caution begin to be exercised when the roadway has a bi-directional peak-hour volume between 1,500 and 1,750 vehicles per hour. At and above 1,750 vehicles per hour, the simulation indicated a reduction in arterial level of service. Therefore, at least in Iowa, the feasibility of a four-lane undivided to three-lane conversion should be questioned and/or considered much more closely when a roadway has (or is expected to have) a peak-hour volume of more than 1,750 vehicles. Assuming that 10 percent of the daily traffic occurs during the peak-hour, these volume recommendations would correspond to 15,000 and 17,500 vehicles per day, respectively. These suggestions, however, are based on the results from one idealized case xi study corridor analysis. Individual operational analysis and/or simulations should be completed in detail once a four-lane undivided to three-lane cross section conversion is considered feasible (based on the general suggestions above) for a particular corridor. All of the simulations completed as part of this project also incorporated the optimization of signal timing to minimize vehicle delay along the corridor. A number of determination feasibility factors were identified from a review of the past research, before-and-after case study results, and the simulation sensitivity analysis. The existing and expected (i.e., design period) statuses of these factors are described and should be considered. The characteristics of these factors should be compared to each other, the impacts of other potentially feasible cross section improvements, and the goals/objectives of the community. The factors discussed in these guidelines include • roadway function and environment • overall traffic volume and level of service • turning volumes and patterns • frequent-stop and slow-moving vehicles • weaving, speed, and queues • crash type and patterns • pedestrian and bike activity • right-of-way availability, cost, and acquisition impacts • general characteristics, including - parallel roadways - offset minor street intersections - parallel parking - corner radii - at-grade railroad crossings xii The characteristics of these factors are documented in these guidelines, and their relationship to four-lane undivided to three-lane cross section conversion feasibility identified. This information is summarized along with some evaluative questions in this executive summary and Appendix C. In summary, the results of past research, numerous case studies, and the simulation analyses done as part of this project support the conclusion that in certain circumstances a four-lane undivided to three-lane conversion can be a feasible alternative for the mitigation of operational and/or safety concerns. This feasibility, however, must be determined by an evaluation of the factors identified in these guidelines (along with any others that may be relevant for a individual corridor). The expected benefits, costs, and overall impacts of a four-lane undivided to three-lane conversion should then be compared to the impacts of other feasible alternatives (e.g., adding a raised median) at a particular location.

Swain: Stata module to correct the SEM chi-square overidentification test in small sample sizes or complex models. Statistical Software Components S457617, Boston College Department of Economics.

Swain corrects the chi-square overidentification test (i.e., likelihood ratio test of fit) for structural equation models whethr with or without latent variables. The chi-square statistic is asymptotically correct; however, it does not behave as expected in small samples and/or when the model is complex (cf. Herzog, Boomsma, & Reinecke, 2007). Thus, particularly in situations where the ratio of sample size (n) to the number of parameters estimated (p) is relatively small (i.e., the p to n ratio is large), the chi-square test will tend to overreject correctly specified models. To obtain a closer approximation to the distribution of the chi-square statistic, Swain (1975) developed a correction; this scaling factor, which converges to 1 asymptotically, is multiplied with the chi-square statistic. The correction better approximates the chi-square distribution resulting in more appropriate Type 1 reject error rates (see Herzog & Boomsma, 2009; Herzog, et al., 2007).

The Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation provisional criteria for the evaluation of response to therapy in juvenile dermatomyositis.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a provisional definition for the evaluation of response to therapy in juvenile dermatomyositis (DM) based on the Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation juvenile DM core set of variables. METHODS: Thirty-seven experienced pediatric rheumatologists from 27 countries achieved consensus on 128 difficult patient profiles as clinically improved or not improved using a stepwise approach (patient's rating, statistical analysis, definition selection). Using the physicians' consensus ratings as the "gold standard measure," chi-square, sensitivity, specificity, false-positive and-negative rates, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and kappa agreement for candidate definitions of improvement were calculated. Definitions with kappa values >0.8 were multiplied by the face validity score to select the top definitions. RESULTS: The top definition of improvement was at least 20% improvement from baseline in 3 of 6 core set variables with no more than 1 of the remaining worsening by more than 30%, which cannot be muscle strength. The second-highest scoring definition was at least 20% improvement from baseline in 3 of 6 core set variables with no more than 2 of the remaining worsening by more than 25%, which cannot be muscle strength (definition P1 selected by the International Myositis Assessment and Clinical Studies group). The third is similar to the second with the maximum amount of worsening set to 30%. This indicates convergent validity of the process. CONCLUSION: We propose a provisional data-driven definition of improvement that reflects well the consensus rating of experienced clinicians, which incorporates clinically meaningful change in core set variables in a composite end point for the evaluation of global response to therapy in juvenile DM.

Spinning welfare: The gains from process innovation in cotton and car production

Economists and economic historians want to know how much better life is today than in the past.Fifty years ago economic historians found surprisingly small gains from 19th century US railroads,while more recently economists have found relatively large gains from electricity, computers and cellphones. In each case the implicit or explicit assumption is that researchers were measuring the valueof a new good to society. In this paper we use the same techniques to find the value to society ofmaking existing goods cheaper. Henry Ford did not invent the car, and the inventors of mechanisedcotton spinning in the industrial revolution invented no new product. But both made existing productsdramatically cheaper, bringing them into the reach of many more consumers. That in turn haspotentially large welfare effects. We find that the consumer surplus of Henry Ford s production linewas around 2% by 1923, 15 years after Ford began to implement the moving assembly line, while themechanisation of cotton spinning was worth around 6% by 1820, 34 years after its initial invention.Both are large: of the same order of magnitude as consumer expenditure on these items, and as largeor larger than the value of the internet to consumers. On the social savings measure traditionally usedby economic historians, these process innovations were worth 15% and 18% respectively, makingthem more important than railroads. Our results remind us that process innovations can be at least asimportant for welfare and productivity as the invention of new products.

Speed of convergence of recursive least squares learning with ARMA perceptions

This paper fills a gap in the existing literature on least squareslearning in linear rational expectations models by studying a setup inwhich agents learn by fitting ARMA models to a subset of the statevariables. This is a natural specification in models with privateinformation because in the presence of hidden state variables, agentshave an incentive to condition forecasts on the infinite past recordsof observables. We study a particular setting in which it sufficesfor agents to fit a first order ARMA process, which preserves thetractability of a finite dimensional parameterization, while permittingconditioning on the infinite past record. We describe how previousresults (Marcet and Sargent [1989a, 1989b] can be adapted to handlethe convergence of estimators of an ARMA process in our self--referentialenvironment. We also study ``rates'' of convergence analytically and viacomputer simulation.

Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models

We investigate identifiability issues in DSGE models and their consequences for parameter estimation and model evaluation when the objective function measures the distance between estimated and model impulse responses. We show that observational equivalence, partial and weak identification problems are widespread, that they lead to biased estimates, unreliable t-statistics and may induce investigators to select false models. We examine whether different objective functions affect identification and study how small samples interact with parameters and shock identification. We provide diagnostics and tests to detect identification failures and apply them to a state-of-the-art model.

Status Upgrade:The Case of Cape Verde’s Graduation from the Least Developed Country (Ldc) Category

Esta dissertação analisa as principais características e as dificuldades que se levantam ao desenvolvimento de dois grupos de países em situações especiais, especificamente os PMA e os SIDS. Neste contexto, são abordadas questões relacionadas com medidas de apoio por parte da comunidade internacional, visando facilitar o processo de desenvolvimento dos PMA, e analisada a questão (por vezes controversa) da transição da lista de PMA. Neste quadro, é analisado o caso de Cabo Verde – o primeiro SIDS a transitar da lista de PMA –, com a consideração prévia de importantes questões de financiamento do desenvolvimento, de suma importância para a capacidade do país suster o seu desenvolvimento, a partir da entrada em vigor da sua graduação da lista dos PMA, em Janeiro de 2008.