Misleading Population Estimates: Biases and Consistency of Visual Surveys and Matrix Modelling in the Endangered Bearded Vulture

Conservation strategies for long-lived vertebrates require accurate estimates of parameters relative to the populations' size, numbers of non-breeding individuals (the “cryptic” fraction of the population) and the age structure. Frequently, visual survey techniques are used to make these estimates but the accuracy of these approaches is questionable, mainly because of the existence of numerous potential biases. Here we compare data on population trends and age structure in a bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population from visual surveys performed at supplementary feeding stations with data derived from population matrix-modelling approximations. Our results suggest that visual surveys overestimate the number of immature (<2 years old) birds, whereas subadults (3–5 y.o.) and adults (>6 y.o.) were underestimated in comparison with the predictions of a population model using a stable-age distribution. In addition, we found that visual surveys did not provide conclusive information on true variations in the size of the focal population. Our results suggest that although long-term studies (i.e. population matrix modelling based on capture-recapture procedures) are a more time-consuming method, they provide more reliable and robust estimates of population parameters needed in designing and applying conservation strategies. The findings shown here are likely transferable to the management and conservation of other long-lived vertebrate populations that share similar life-history traits and ecological requirements.

Moving along the mental number line: Interactions between whole-body motion and numerical cognition

Active head turns to the left and right have recently been shown to influence numerical cognition by shifting attention along the mental number line. In the present study, we found that passive whole-body motion influences numerical cognition. In a random-number generation task (Experiment 1), leftward and downward displacement of participants facilitated small number generation, whereas rightward and upward displacement facilitated the generation of large numbers. Influences of leftward and rightward motion were also found for the processing of auditorily presented numbers in a magnitude-judgment task (Experiment 2). Additionally, we investigated the reverse effect of the number-space association (Experiment 3). Participants were displaced leftward or rightward and asked to detect motion direction as fast as possible while small or large numbers were auditorily presented. When motion detection was difficult, leftward motion was detected faster when hearing small number and rightward motion when hearing large number. We provide new evidence that bottom-up vestibular activation is sufficient to interact with the higher-order spatial representation underlying numerical cognition. The results show that action planning or motor activity is not necessary to influence spatial attention. Moreover, our results suggest that self-motion perception and numerical cognition can mutually influence each other.

Structural and resting state functional connectivity of the subthalamic nucleus: identification of motor STN parts and the hyperdirect pathway

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) for Parkinson's disease often alleviates the motor symptoms, but causes cognitive and emotional side effects in a substantial number of cases. Identification of the motor part of the subthalamic nucleus (STN) as part of the presurgical workup could minimize these adverse effects. In this study, we assessed the STN's connectivity to motor, associative, and limbic brain areas, based on structural and functional connectivity analysis of volunteer data. For the structural connectivity, we used streamline counts derived from HARDI fiber tracking. The resulting tracks supported the existence of the so-called "hyperdirect" pathway in humans. Furthermore, we determined the connectivity of each STN voxel with the motor cortical areas. Functional connectivity was calculated based on functional MRI, as the correlation of the signal within a given brain voxel with the signal in the STN. Also, the signal per STN voxel was explained in terms of the correlation with motor or limbic brain seed ROI areas. Both right and left STN ROIs appeared to be structurally and functionally connected to brain areas that are part of the motor, associative, and limbic circuit. Furthermore, this study enabled us to assess the level of segregation of the STN motor part, which is relevant for the planning of STN DBS procedures.

Quantification of central motor conduction deficits in multiple sclerosis patients before and after treatment of acute exacerbation by methylprednisolone

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effects of intravenous methylprednisolone (IVMP) in patients with relapsing-remitting (RR-MS), secondary progressive (SP-MS), and primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PP-MS). METHODS: Clinical and neurophysiological follow up was undertaken in 24 RR-MS, eight SP-MS, and nine PP-MS patients receiving Solu-Medrol 500 mg/d over five days for exacerbations involving the motor system. Motor evoked potentials (MEPs) were used to measure central motor conduction time (CMCT) and the triple stimulation technique (TST) was applied to assess conduction deficits. The TST allows accurate quantification of the number of conducting central motor neurones, expressed by the TST amplitude ratio. RESULTS: There was a significant increase in TST amplitude ratio in RR-MS (p<0.001) and SP-MS patients (p<0.02) at day 5, paralleling an increase in muscle force. TST amplitude ratio and muscle force remained stable at two months. In PP-MS, TST amplitude ratio and muscle force did not change. CMCT did not change significantly in any of the three groups. CONCLUSIONS: In RR-MS and SP-MS, IVMP is followed by a prompt increase in conducting central motor neurones paralleled by improvement in muscle force, which most probably reflects partial resolution of central conduction block. The lack of similar clinical and neurophysiological changes in PP-MS corroborates previous clinical reports on limited IVMP efficacy in this patient group and points to pathophysiological differences underlying exacerbations in PP-MS.

The efficacy of non-pharmacological interventions in the management of procedural pain in preterm and term neonates. A systematic literature review

BACKGROUND: Neonates in a neonatal intensive care unit are exposed to a high number of painful procedures. Since repeated and sustained pain can have consequences for the neurological and behaviour-oriented development of the newborn, the greatest attention needs to be paid to systematic pain management in neonatology. Non-pharmacological treatment methods are being increasingly discussed with regard to pain prevention and relief either alone or in combination with pharmacological treatment. AIMS: To identify effective non-pharmacological interventions with regard to procedural pain in neonates. METHODS: A literature search was conducted via the MedLine, CINAHL, Cochrane Library databases and complemented by a handsearch. The literature search covered the period from 1984 to 2004. Data were extracted according to pre-defined criteria by two independent reviewers and methodological quality was assessed. RESULTS: 13 randomised controlled studies and two meta-analyses were taken into consideration with regard to the question of current nursing practice of non-pharmacological pain management methods. The selected interventions were "non-nutritive sucking", "music", "swaddling", "positioning", "olfactory and multisensorial stimulation", "kangaroo care" and "maternal touch". There is evidence that the methods of "non-nutritive sucking", "swaddling" and "facilitated tucking" do have a pain-alleviating effect on neonates. CONCLUSIONS: Some of the non-pharmacological interventions have an evident favourable effect on pulse rate, respiration and oxygen saturation, on the reduction of motor activity, and on the excitation states after invasive measures. However, unambiguous evidence of this still remains to be presented. Further research should emphasise the use of validated pain assessment instruments for the evaluation of the pain-alleviating effect of non-pharmacological interventions.

Fitting of Mixtures with Unspecified Number of Components Using Cross Validation Distance Estimate

Estimation of the number of mixture components (k) is an unsolved problem. Available methods for estimation of k include bootstrapping the likelihood ratio test statistics and optimizing a variety of validity functionals such as AIC, BIC/MDL, and ICOMP. We investigate the minimization of distance between fitted mixture model and the true density as a method for estimating k. The distances considered are Kullback-Leibler (KL) and “L sub 2”. We estimate these distances using cross validation. A reliable estimate of k is obtained by voting of B estimates of k corresponding to B cross validation estimates of distance. This estimation methods with KL distance is very similar to Monte Carlo cross validated likelihood methods discussed by Smyth (2000). With focus on univariate normal mixtures, we present simulation studies that compare the cross validated distance method with AIC, BIC/MDL, and ICOMP. We also apply the cross validation estimate of distance approach along with AIC, BIC/MDL and ICOMP approach, to data from an osteoporosis drug trial in order to find groups that differentially respond to treatment.

Percutaneous coronary interventions in Europe: prevalence, numerical estimates, and projections based on data up to 2004

AIMS: A registry mandated by the European Society of Cardiology collects data on trends in interventional cardiology within Europe. Special interest focuses on relative increases and ratios in new techniques and their distributions across Europe. We report the data through 2004 and give an overview of the development of coronary interventions since the first data collection in 1992. METHODS AND RESULTS: Questionnaires were distributed yearly to delegates of all national societies of cardiology represented in the European Society of Cardiology. The goal was to collect the case numbers of all local institutions and operators. The overall numbers of coronary angiographies increased from 1992 to 2004 from 684 000 to 2 238 000 (from 1250 to 3930 per million inhabitants). The respective numbers for percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) and coronary stenting procedures increased from 184 000 to 885 000 (from 335 to 1550) and from 3000 to 770 000 (from 5 to 1350), respectively. Germany was the most active country with 712 000 angiographies (8600), 249 000 angioplasties (3000), and 200 000 stenting procedures (2400) in 2004. The indication has shifted towards acute coronary syndromes, as demonstrated by rising rates of interventions for acute myocardial infarction over the last decade. The procedures are more readily performed and perceived safer, as shown by increasing rate of "ad hoc" PCIs and decreasing need for emergency coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). In 2004, the use of drug-eluting stents continued to rise. However, an enormous variability is reported with the highest rate in Switzerland (70%). If the rate of progression remains constant until 2010 the projected number of coronary angiographies will be over three million, and the number of PCIs about 1.5 million with a stenting rate of almost 100%. CONCLUSION: Interventional cardiology in Europe is ever expanding. New coronary revascularization procedures, alternative or complementary to balloon angioplasty, have come and gone. Only stenting has stood the test of time and matured to the default technique. Facilitated access to PCI, more complete and earlier detection of coronary artery disease promise continued growth of the procedure despite the uncontested success of prevention.

A MULTILEVEL MODEL TO ADDRESS BATCH EFFECTS IN COPY NUMBER ESTIMATION USING SNP ARRAYS

Submicroscopic changes in chromosomal DNA copy number dosage are common and have been implicated in many heritable diseases and cancers. Recent high-throughput technologies have a resolution that permits the detection of segmental changes in DNA copy number that span thousands of basepairs across the genome. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) may simultaneously screen for copy number-phenotype and SNP-phenotype associations as part of the analytic strategy. However, genome-wide array analyses are particularly susceptible to batch effects as the logistics of preparing DNA and processing thousands of arrays often involves multiple laboratories and technicians, or changes over calendar time to the reagents and laboratory equipment. Failure to adjust for batch effects can lead to incorrect inference and requires inefficient post-hoc quality control procedures that exclude regions that are associated with batch. Our work extends previous model-based approaches for copy number estimation by explicitly modeling batch effects and using shrinkage to improve locus-specific estimates of copy number uncertainty. Key features of this approach include the use of diallelic genotype calls from experimental data to estimate batch- and locus-specific parameters of background and signal without the requirement of training data. We illustrate these ideas using a study of bipolar disease and a study of chromosome 21 trisomy. The former has batch effects that dominate much of the observed variation in quantile-normalized intensities, while the latter illustrates the robustness of our approach to datasets where as many as 25% of the samples have altered copy number. Locus-specific estimates of copy number can be plotted on the copy-number scale to investigate mosaicism and guide the choice of appropriate downstream approaches for smoothing the copy number as a function of physical position. The software is open source and implemented in the R package CRLMM available at Bioconductor (http:www.bioconductor.org).

Effects of rivastigmine on actigraphically monitored motor activity in severe agitation related to Alzheimer's disease: a placebo-controlled pilot study

Acetylcholinesterase inhibitors (AChEIs) are effective in the treatment of cognitive symptoms in Alzheimer's disease (AD). Because the behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia (BPSD) have also been attributed to central cholinergic deficits, we examined whether the AChEI rivastigmine can reduce motor activity as measured in a rater-independent manner by wrist actigraphy in agitated AD patients. A total of 20 consecutive AD inpatients (13 females, 7 males, 80.4+/-9.1 years, S.D.) were included from our geriatric psychiatry unit, all of whom were exhibiting agitated behavior not attributable to delirium. Patients were assigned randomly and in a single-blinded fashion to rivastigmine 3mg or placebo for 14 days. Motor activity levels were monitored using an actigraph worn continuously on the wrist of the non-dominant hand. At the beginning and end of the study, patients were assessed using the Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI) and Nurses' Observation Scale for Geriatric Patients (NOSGER). Patients in the rivastigmine group exhibited less agitation than placebo recipients on the NPI-agitation subscale, but not on NOSGER. Actigraphic measurements showed a tendency towards reduced motor activity in the rivastigmine group. Because rivastigmine usually exerts its main effects after a longer period of time, the short-term effects seen in our study justify further controlled clinical trials examining the use of rivastigmine in BPSD by means of actigraphy.

Energy harvesting from body motion using rotational micro-generation

Autonomous system applications are typically limited by the power supply operational lifetime when battery replacement is difficult or costly. A trade-off between battery size and battery life is usually calculated to determine the device capability and lifespan. As a result, energy harvesting research has gained importance as society searches for alternative energy sources for power generation. For instance, energy harvesting has been a proven alternative for powering solar-based calculators and self-winding wristwatches. Thus, the use of energy harvesting technology can make it possible to assist or replace batteries for portable, wearable, or surgically-implantable autonomous systems. Applications such as cardiac pacemakers or electrical stimulation applications can benefit from this approach since the number of surgeries for battery replacement can be reduced or eliminated. Research on energy scavenging from body motion has been investigated to evaluate the feasibility of powering wearable or implantable systems. Energy from walking has been previously extracted using generators placed on shoes, backpacks, and knee braces while producing power levels ranging from milliwatts to watts. The research presented in this paper examines the available power from walking and running at several body locations. The ankle, knee, hip, chest, wrist, elbow, upper arm, side of the head, and back of the head were the chosen target localizations. Joints were preferred since they experience the most drastic acceleration changes. For this, a motor-driven treadmill test was performed on 11 healthy individuals at several walking (1-4 mph) and running (2-5 mph) speeds. The treadmill test provided the acceleration magnitudes from the listed body locations. Power can be estimated from the treadmill evaluation since it is proportional to the acceleration and frequency of occurrence. Available power output from walking was determined to be greater than 1mW/cm³ for most body locations while being over 10mW/cm³ at the foot and ankle locations. Available power from running was found to be almost 10 times higher than that from walking. Most energy harvester topologies use linear generator approaches that are well suited to fixed-frequency vibrations with sub-millimeter amplitude oscillations. In contrast, body motion is characterized with a wide frequency spectrum and larger amplitudes. A generator prototype based on self-winding wristwatches is deemed to be appropriate for harvesting body motion since it is not limited to operate at fixed-frequencies or restricted displacements. Electromagnetic generation is typically favored because of its slightly higher power output per unit volume. Then, a nonharmonic oscillating rotational energy scavenger prototype is proposed to harness body motion. The electromagnetic generator follows the approach from small wind turbine designs that overcome the lack of a gearbox by using a larger number of coil and magnets arrangements. The device presented here is composed of a rotor with multiple-pole permanent magnets having an eccentric weight and a stator composed of stacked planar coils. The rotor oscillations induce a voltage on the planar coil due to the eccentric mass unbalance produced by body motion. A meso-scale prototype device was then built and evaluated for energy generation. The meso-scale casing and rotor were constructed on PMMA with the help of a CNC mill machine. Commercially available discrete magnets were encased in a 25mm rotor. Commercial copper-coated polyimide film was employed to manufacture the planar coils using MEMS fabrication processes. Jewel bearings were used to finalize the arrangement. The prototypes were also tested at the listed body locations. A meso-scale generator with a 2-layer coil was capable to extract up to 234 µW of power at the ankle while walking at 3mph with a 2cm³ prototype for a power density of 117 µW/cm³. This dissertation presents the analysis of available power from walking and running at different speeds and the development of an unobtrusive miniature energy harvesting generator for body motion. Power generation indicates the possibility of powering devices by extracting energy from body motion.

Enhancing rehabilitation of motor deficits with peripheral nerve stimulation

A number of different neurorehabilitation strategies include manipulation of the somatosensory system, e.g. in the form of training by passive movement. Recently, peripheral electrical nerve stimulation has been proposed as a simple, painless method of enhancing rehabilitation of motor deficits. Several physiological studies both in animals and in humans indicate that a prolonged period of patterned peripheral electrical stimulation induces short-term plasticity at multiple levels of the motor system. Small-scale studies in humans indicate that these plastic changes are linked with improvement in motor function, particularly in patients with chronic motor deficits after stroke. Somatosensory-mediated disinhibition of motor pathways is a possible underlying mechanism and might explain why peripheral electrical stimulation is more effective when combined with active training. Further large-scale studies are needed to identify the optimal stimulation protocol and the patient groups that stand to benefit the most from this technique.

Trial-to-trial size variability of motor-evoked potentials. A study using the triple stimulation technique

Motor-evoked potentials (MEPs) vary in size from one stimulus to the next. The objective of this study was to determine the cause and source of trial-to-trial MEP size variability. In two experiments involving 10 and 14 subjects, the variability of MEPs to cortical stimulation (cortical-MEPs) in abductor digiti minimi (ADM) and abductor hallucis (AH) was compared to those responses obtained using the triple stimulation technique (cortical-TST). The TST eliminates the effects of motor neuron (MN) response desynchronization and of repetitive MN discharges. Submaximal stimuli were used in both techniques. In six subjects, cortical-MEP variability was compared to that of brainstem-MEP and brainstem-TST. Variability was greater for MEPs than that for TST responses, by approximately one-third. The variability was the same for cortical- and brainstem-MEPs and was similar in ADM and AH. Variability concerned at least 10-15% of the MN pool innervating the target muscle. With the stimulation parameters used, repetitive MN discharges did not influence variability. For submaximal stimuli, approximately two-third of the observed MEP size variability is caused by the variable number of recruited alpha-MNs and approximately one-third by changing synchronization of MN discharges. The source of variability is most likely localized at the spinal segmental level.

Scabies outbreak in an intensive care unit with 1,659 exposed individuals--key factors for controlling the outbreak

OBJECTIVE: To investigate a large outbreak of scabies in an intensive care unit of a university hospital and an affiliated rehabilitation center, and to establish effective control measures to prevent further transmission. DESIGN: Outbreak investigation. SETTING: The intensive care unit of a 750-bed university hospital and an affiliated 92-bed rehabilitation center. METHODS: All exposed individuals were screened by a senior staff dermatologist. Scabies was diagnosed on the basis of (1) identification of mites by skin scraping, (2) identification of mites by dermoscopy, or (3) clinical examination of patients without history of prior treatment for typical burrows. During a follow-up period of 6 months, the attack rate was calculated as the number of symptomatic individuals divided by the total number of exposed individuals. INTERVENTIONS: All exposed healthcare workers (HCWs) and their household members underwent preemptive treatment. Initially, the most effective registered drug in Switzerland (ie, topical lindane) was prescribed, but this prescription was switched to topical permethrin or systemic ivermectin as a result of the progression of the outbreak. Individuals with any signs or symptoms of scabies underwent dermatological examination. RESULTS: Within 7 months, 19 cases of scabies were diagnosed, 6 in children with a mean age of 3.1 years after exposure to the index patient with HIV and crusted scabies. A total of 1,640 exposed individuals underwent preemptive treatment. The highest attack rate of 26%-32% was observed among HCWs involved in the care of the index patient. A too-restricted definition of individuals at risk, noncompliance with treatment, and the limited effectiveness of lindane likely led to treatment failure, relapse, and reinfestation within families. CONCLUSIONS: Crusted scabies resulted in high attack rates among HCWs and household contacts. Timely institution of hygienic precautions with close monitoring and widespread, simultaneous scabicide treatment of all exposed individuals are essential for control of an outbreak.

Non-ignorable loss to follow-up: correcting mortality estimates based on additional outcome ascertainment

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is a common problem in many epidemiological studies. In antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs for patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), mortality estimates can be biased if the LTFU mechanism is non-ignorable, that is, mortality differs between lost and retained patients. In this setting, routine procedures for handling missing data may lead to biased estimates. To appropriately deal with non-ignorable LTFU, explicit modeling of the missing data mechanism is needed. This can be based on additional outcome ascertainment for a sample of patients LTFU, for example, through linkage to national registries or through survey-based methods. In this paper, we demonstrate how this additional information can be used to construct estimators based on inverse probability weights (IPW) or multiple imputation. We use simulations to contrast the performance of the proposed estimators with methods widely used in HIV cohort research for dealing with missing data. The practical implications of our approach are illustrated using South African ART data, which are partially linkable to South African national vital registration data. Our results demonstrate that while IPWs and proper imputation procedures can be easily constructed from additional outcome ascertainment to obtain valid overall estimates, neglecting non-ignorable LTFU can result in substantial bias. We believe the proposed estimators are readily applicable to a growing number of studies where LTFU is appreciable, but additional outcome data are available through linkage or surveys of patients LTFU. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Use of Ultrasound Backfat Estimates to Form Marketing Groups Prior to Finishing for Feedlot Steers

An experiment was conducted using 95 Continental crossbred steers. The cattle were sorted by ultrasound 160 days before slaughter into a low backfat group (Low BF) and a higher backfat group (High BF). Half of the Low BF and half of the High BF were implanted whereas the other halves were not. Data from the experiment were used in two hypothetical markets. One market was a high yield beef program (HY) that did not allow the use of implants. The second market was a commodity beef program (CM) that allowed the use of implants. The cattle were priced as an unsorted group (ALL) and two sorted groups (Low BF and High BF) within the HY (non-implanted) and CM (implanted) markets. The CM program had a base price of $1.05/lb hot carcass weight (HCW) with a $0.15/lb HCW discount for quality grade (QG) Select and a $0.20/lb HCW discount for yield grade (YG) 4. The HY program used a base price of $1.07/lb HCW with premiums ($/lb HCW) paid for YG £ .9 (.15), 1.0 - 1.4 (.10), and 1.5 - 1.9 (.03). The carcasses were discounted ($/lb HCW) for YG 2.5 - 2.9 (.03), 3.0 - 3.9 (.15), and ³ 4.0 (.35). This data set provides good evidence that the end point at which to sell a group of cattle depends on the particular market. Sorting had an economic advantage over ALL in the HY Low BF and the CM High BF groups. The HY High BF cattle should have been sold sooner due to the discounts recieved for increased YG. The increased YG was directly affected by an increase in BF. Furthermore, the CM Low BF group should have been fed longer to increase the number of carcasses grading Choice.