Model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using roadside air quality measurements

Most of the air quality modelling work has been so far oriented towards deterministic simulations of ambient pollutant concentrations. This traditional approach, which is based on the use of one selected model and one data set of discrete input values, does not reflect the uncertainties due to errors in model formulation and input data. Given the complexities of urban environments and the inherent limitations of mathematical modelling, it is unlikely that a single model based on routinely available meteorological and emission data will give satisfactory short-term predictions. In this study, different methods involving the use of more than one dispersion model, in association with different emission simulation methodologies and meteorological data sets, were explored for predicting best CO and benzene estimates, and related confidence bounds. The different approaches were tested using experimental data obtained during intensive monitoring campaigns in busy street canyons in Paris, France. Three relative simple dispersion models (STREET, OSPM and AEOLIUS) that are likely to be used for regulatory purposes were selected for this application. A sensitivity analysis was conducted in order to identify internal model parameters that might significantly affect results. Finally, a probabilistic methodology for assessing urban air quality was proposed.

Computational model for prediction of particle degradation during dilute-phase pneumatic conveying: modeling of dilute-phase pneumatic conveying

A complete model of particle impact degradation during dilute-phase pneumatic conveying is developed, which combines a degradation model, based on the experimental determination of breakage matrices, and a physical model of solids and gas flow in the pipeline. The solids flow in a straight pipe element is represented by a model consisting of two zones: a strand-type flow zone immediately downstream of a bend, followed by a fully suspended flow region after dispersion of the strand. The breakage matrices constructed from data on 90° angle single-impact tests are shown to give a good representation of the degradation occurring in a pipe bend of 90° angle. Numerical results are presented for degradation of granulated sugar in a large scale pneumatic conveyor.

Validation of the CDC Biofilm Reactor as a Dynamic Model for Assessment of Encrustation Formation on Urological Device Materials

Contemporary medical science is reliant upon the rational selection and utilization of devices, and therefore, an increasing need has developed for in vitro systems aimed at replicating the conditions to which urological devices will be subjected to during their use in vivo. We report the development and validation of a novel continuous flow encrustation model based on the commercially available CDC biofilm reactor. Proteus mirabilis-induced encrustation formation on test biomaterial sections under varying experimental parameters was analyzed by X-ray diffraction, infrared- and Raman spectroscopy and by scanning electron microscopy. The model system produced encrusted deposits similar to those observed in archived clinical samples. Results obtained for the system are highly reproducible with encrustation being rapidly deposited on test biomaterial sections. This model will have utility in the rapid screening of encrustation behavior of biomaterials for use in urological applications. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals. Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part B: Appl Biomater 93B: 128-140, 2010

Response characteristics of optical sensors for oxygen: models based on a distribution in tau(o) or kappa(q)

The features of two popular models used to describe the observed response characteristics of typical oxygen optical sensors based on luminescence quenching are examined critically. The models are the 'two-site' and 'Gaussian distribution in natural lifetime, tau(o),' models. These models are used to characterise the response features of typical optical oxygen sensors; features which include: downward curving Stern-Volmer plots and increasingly non-first order luminescence decay kinetics with increasing partial pressures of oxygen, pO(2). Neither model appears able to unite these latter features, let alone the observed disparate array of response features exhibited by the myriad optical oxygen sensors reported in the literature, and still maintain any level of physical plausibility. A model based on a Gaussian distribution in quenching rate constant, k(q), is developed and, although flawed by a limited breadth in distribution, rho, does produce Stern-Volmer plots which would cover the range in curvature seen with real optical oxygen sensors. A new 'log-Gaussian distribution in tau(o) or k(q)' model is introduced which has the advantage over a Gaussian distribution model of placing no limitation on the value of rho. Work on a 'log-Gaussian distribution in tau(o)' model reveals that the Stern-Volmer quenching plots would show little degree in curvature, even at large rho values and the luminescence decays would become increasingly first order with increasing pO(2). In fact, with real optical oxygen sensors, the opposite is observed and thus the model appears of little value. In contrast, a 'log-Gaussian distribution in k(o)' model does produce the trends observed with real optical oxygen sensors; although it is technically restricted in use to those in which the kinetics of luminescence decay are good first order in the absence of oxygen. The latter model gives a good fit to the major response features of sensors which show the latter feature, most notably the [Ru(dpp)(3)(2+)(Ph4B-)(2)] in cellulose optical oxygen sensors. The scope of a log-Gaussian model for further expansion and, therefore, application to optical oxygen sensors, by combining both a log-Gaussian distribution in k(o) with one in tau(o) is briefly discussed.

High-pressure volumetric properties of imidazolium-based ionic liquids: Effect of the anion

The densities of five imidazolium-based ionic liquids (ILs) (1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium tetrafluoroborate, [CiC4-Im][BF 4]; 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium hexafluorophosphate, [CiC 4Im][PF6]; 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium bis{(trifluoromethyl)sulfonyl}imide, [C1C4Im][Tf 2N]; 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazoliumbis{(trifluoromethyl)sulfonyl}-imide, [C1C2Im][Tf2N]; l-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium ethylsulfate, [C1C2Im][EtSO4]) were measured as a function of temperature from (293 to 415) K and over an extended pressure range from (0.1 to 40) MPa using a vibratingtube densimeter. Knowledge of the variation of the density with temperature and pressure allows access to the mechanical coefficients: thermal expansion coefficient and isothermal compressibility. The effects of the anion and of the length of the alkyl chain on the imidazolium ring on the volumetric properties were particularly examined. The mechanical coefficients were compared with those of common organic solvents, water and liquid NaCl. Finally, a prediction model, based on an "ideal" volumetric behavior of the ILs, is proposed to allow calculation of the molar volume of imidazolium-based ionic liquids as a function of temperature. ©2007 American Chemical Society.

CoMFA and homology-based models of the glycine binding site of N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor

Homology modeling was used to build 3D models of the N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor glycine binding site on the basis of an X-ray structure of the water-soluble AMPA-sensitive receptor. The docking of agonists and antagonists to these models was used to reveal binding modes of ligands and to explain known structure-activity relationships. Two types of quantitative models, 3D-QSAR/CoMFA and a regression model based on docking energies, were built for antagonists (derivatives of 4-hydroxy-2-quinolone, quinoxaline-2,3-dione, and related compounds). The CoMFA steric and electrostatic maps were superimposed on the homology-based model, and a close correspondence was marked. The derived computational models have permitted the evaluation of the structural features crucial for high glycine binding site affinity and are important for the design of new ligands.

Rule-Based Intrusion Detection System for SCADA Networks

Increased complexity and interconnectivity of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems in Smart Grids potentially means greater susceptibility to malicious attackers. SCADA systems with legacy communication infrastructure have inherent cyber-security vulnerabilities as these systems were originally designed with little consideration of cyber threats. In order to improve cyber-security of SCADA networks, this paper presents a rule-based Intrusion Detection System (IDS) using a Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) method, which includes signature-based and model-based approaches tailored for SCADA systems. The proposed signature-based rules can accurately detect several known suspicious or malicious attacks. In addition, model-based detection is proposed as a complementary method to detect unknown attacks. Finally, proposed intrusion detection approaches for SCADA networks are implemented and verified using a ruled based method.

Intrusion Detection System for IEC 60870-5-104 Based SCADA Networks

Increased complexity and interconnectivity of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems in Smart Grids potentially means greater susceptibility to malicious attackers. SCADA systems with legacy communication infrastructure have inherent cyber-security vulnerabilities as these systems were originally designed with little consideration of cyber threats. In order to improve cyber-security of SCADA networks, this paper presents a rule-based Intrusion Detection System (IDS) using a Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) method, which includes signature-based and model-based approaches tailored for SCADA systems. The proposed signature-based rules can accurately detect several known suspicious or malicious attacks. In addition, model-based detection is proposed as a complementary method to detect unknown attacks. Finally, proposed intrusion detection approaches for SCADA networks are implemented and verified via Snort rules.

Experimentally validated partial least squares model for dynamic line rating

This study presents a model based on partial least squares (PLS) regression for dynamic line rating (DLR). The model has been verified using data from field measurements, lab tests and outdoor experiments. Outdoor experimentation has been conducted both to verify the model predicted DLR and also to provide training data not available from field measurements, mainly heavily loaded conditions. The proposed model, unlike the direct measurement based DLR techniques, enables prediction of line rating for periods ahead of time whenever a reliable weather forecast is available. The PLS approach yields a very simple statistical model that accurately captures the physical performance of the conductor within a given environment without requiring a predetermination of parameters as required by many physical modelling techniques. Accuracy of the PLS model has been tested by predicting the conductor temperature for measurement sets other than those used for training. Being a linear model, it is straightforward to estimate the conductor ampacity for a set of predicted weather parameters. The PLS estimated ampacity has proven its accuracy through an outdoor experiment on a piece of the line conductor in real weather conditions.

Analytical model of interwoven spiral arrays

Interweaving planar spiral conductors in doubly periodic arrays enable substantially sub-wavelength resonant response along with broadening fractional bandwidth. A self-contained analytical model is proposed to accurately predict the characteristics of the intertwined quadrifilar spiral array near the fundamental resonance. The model, based upon a multiconductor transmission line (MTL) approach, provides physical insight into the unique properties of the distributed interactions between the interleaved counter-wound spiral arms extended beyond a single unit cell and elucidates the mechanisms underlying the array performance at normal and oblique incidence of TE and TM polarised waves. The developed MTL model is instrumental in the design of the artificial surfaces with the specified response.

DFIG Machine Design for Maximizing Power Output Based on Surrogate Optimization Algorithm

This paper presents a surrogate-model based optimization of a doubly-fed induction generator (DFIG) machine winding design for maximizing power yield. Based on site-specific wind profile data and the machine’s previous operational performance, the DFIG’s stator and rotor windings are optimized to match the maximum efficiency with operating conditions for rewinding purposes. The particle swarm optimization (PSO)-based surrogate optimization techniques are used in conjunction with the finite element method (FEM) to optimize the machine design utilizing the limited available information for the site-specific wind profile and generator operating conditions. A response surface method in the surrogate model is developed to formulate the design objectives and constraints. Besides, the machine tests and efficiency calculations follow IEEE standard 112-B. Numerical and experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed technologies.

A novel radial basis function neural network principal component analysis scheme for PMU-based wide-area power system monitoring

A novel model-based principal component analysis (PCA) method is proposed in this paper for wide-area power system monitoring, aiming to tackle one of the critical drawbacks of the conventional PCA, i.e. the incapability to handle non-Gaussian distributed variables. It is a significant extension of the original PCA method which has already shown to outperform traditional methods like rate-of-change-of-frequency (ROCOF). The ROCOF method is quick for processing local information, but its threshold is difficult to determine and nuisance tripping may easily occur. The proposed model-based PCA method uses a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) model to handle the nonlinearity in the data set to solve the no-Gaussian issue, before the PCA method is used for islanding detection. To build an effective RBFNN model, this paper first uses a fast input selection method to remove insignificant neural inputs. Next, a heuristic optimization technique namely Teaching-Learning-Based-Optimization (TLBO) is adopted to tune the nonlinear parameters in the RBF neurons to build the optimized model. The novel RBFNN based PCA monitoring scheme is then employed for wide-area monitoring using the residuals between the model outputs and the real PMU measurements. Experimental results confirm the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method in monitoring a suite of process variables with different distribution characteristics, showing that the proposed RBFNN PCA method is a reliable scheme as an effective extension to the linear PCA method.

Finite element modelling of FRP-to-concrete bond behaviour using the concrete damage plasticity theory combined with a plastic degradation model

The technique of externally bonding fibre reinforced polymer (FRP) composites has been becoming popular worldwide for retrofitting existing reinforced concrete (RC) structures. A major failure mode in such strengthened structures is the debonding of FRP from the concrete substrate. The bond behaviour between FRP and concrete thus plays a crucial role in these structures. The FRP-to-concrete bond behaviour has been extensively investigated experimentally, commonly using the pull-off test of FRP-to-concrete bonded joint. Comparatively, much less research has been concerned with the numerical simulation of this bond behaviour, chiefly due to difficulties in accurately modelling the complex behaviour of concrete. This paper proposes a robust finite element (FE) model for simulating the bond behaviour in the entire loading process in the pull-off test. A concrete damage plasticity model based on the plastic degradation theory is proposed to overcome the weakness of the elastic degradation theory which has been commonly adopted in previous studies. The model produces results in very close agreement with test data. © Tsinghua University Press, Beijing and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011.

A bond model for DEM simulation of cementitious materials and deformable structures

There is an increasing use of the discrete element method (DEM) to study cemented (e.g. concrete and rocks) and sintered particulate materials. The chief advantage of the DEM over continuum based techniques is that it does not make assumptions about how cracking and fragmentation initiate and propagate, since the DEM system is naturally discontinuous. The ability for the DEM to produce a realistic representation of a cemented granular material depends largely on the implementation of an inter-particle bonded contact model. This paper presents a new bonded contact model based on the Timoshenko beam theory which considers axial, shear and bending behaviour of the bond. The bond model was first verified by simulating both the bending and dynamic response of a simply supported beam. The loading response of a concrete cylinder was then investigated and compared with the Eurocode equation prediction. The results show significant potential for the new model to produce satisfactory predictions for cementitious materials. A unique feature of this model is that it can also be used to accurately represent many deformable structures such as frames and shells, so that both particles and structures or deformable boundaries can be described in the same DEM framework. 

Prognoses and improvement for head and neck cancers diagnosed in Europe in early 2000s: The EUROCARE-5 a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Head and neck (H&N) cancers are a heterogeneous group of malignancies, affecting various sites, with different prognoses. The aims of this study are to analyse survival for patients with H&N cancers in relation to tumour location, to assess the change in survival between European countries, and to investigate whether survival improved over time.
METHODS: We analysed about 250,000 H&N cancer cases from 86 cancer registries (CRs). Relative survival (RS) was estimated by sex, age, country and stage. We described survival time trends over 1999-2007, using the period approach. Model based survival estimates of relative excess risks (RERs) of death were also provided by country, after adjusting for sex, age and sub-site.
RESULTS: Five-year RS was the poorest for hypopharynx (25%) and the highest for larynx (59%). Outcome was significantly better in female than in male patients. In Europe, age-standardised 5-year survival remained stable from 1999-2001 to 2005-2007 for laryngeal cancer, while it increased for all the other H&N cancers. Five-year age-standardised RS was low in Eastern countries, 47% for larynx and 28% for all the other H&N cancers combined, and high in Ireland and the United Kingdom (UK), and Northern Europe (62% and 46%). Adjustment for sub-site narrowed the difference between countries. Fifty-four percent of patients was diagnosed at advanced stage (regional or metastatic). Five-year RS for localised cases ranged between 42% (hypopharynx) and 74% (larynx).
CONCLUSIONS: This study shows survival progresses during the study period. However, slightly more than half of patients were diagnosed with regional or metastatic disease at diagnosis. Early diagnosis and timely start of treatment are crucial to reduce the European gap to further improve H&N cancers outcome.