A Complexity Based Model for Quantifying Forensic Evidential Probabilities

An operational complexity model (OCM) is proposed to enable the complexity of both the cognitive and the computational components of a process to be determined. From the complexity of formation of a set of traces via a specified route a measure of the probability of that route can be determined. By determining the complexities of alternative routes leading to the formation of the same set of traces, the odds ratio indicating the relative plausibility of the alternative routes can be found. An illustrative application to a BitTorrent piracy case is presented, and the results obtained suggest that the OCM is capable of providing a realistic estimate of the odds ratio for two competing hypotheses. It is also demonstrated that the OCM can be straightforwardly refined to encompass a variety of circumstances.

Models of complexity in Robert Coover's John's wife and the adventures of Lucky Pierre

This doctoral dissertation analyzes two novels by the American novelist Robert Coover as examples of hypertextual writing on the book bound page, as tokens of hyperfiction. The complexity displayed in the novels, John's Wife and The Adventures of Lucky Pierre, integrates the cultural elements that characterize the contemporary condition of capitalism and technologized practices that have fostered a different subjectivity evidenced in hypertextual writing and reading, the posthuman subjectivity. The models that account for the complexity of each novel are drawn from the concept of strange attractors in Chaos Theory and from the concept of rhizome in Nomadology. The transformations the characters undergo in the degree of their corporeality sets the plane on which to discuss turbulence and posthumanity. The notions of dynamic patterns and strange attractors, along with the concept of the Body without Organs and Rhizome are interpreted, leading to the revision of narratology and to analytical categories appropriate to the study of the novels. The reading exercised throughout this dissertation enacts Daniel Punday's corporeal reading. The changes in the characters' degree of materiality are associated with the stages of order, turbulence and chaos in the story, bearing on the constitution of subjectivity within and along the reading process. Coover's inscription of planes of consistency to counter linearity and accommodate hypertextual features to the paper supported narratives describes the characters' trajectory as rhizomatic. The study led to the conclusion that narrative today stands more as a regime in a rhizomatic relation with other regimes in cultural practice than as an exclusively literary form and genre. Besides this, posthuman subjectivity emerges as class identity, holding hypertextual novels as their literary form of choice.

Essays on decision sciences: exploring cognition, information processing, and complexity

This thesis provides three original contributions to the field of Decision Sciences. The first contribution explores the field of heuristics and biases. New variations of the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT--a test to measure "the ability or disposition to resist reporting the response that first comes to mind"), are provided. The original CRT (S. Frederick [2005] Journal of Economic Perspectives, v. 19:4, pp.24-42) has items in which the response is immediate--and erroneous. It is shown that by merely varying the numerical parameters of the problems, large deviations in response are found. Not only the final results are affected by the proposed variations, but so is processing fluency. It seems that numbers' magnitudes serve as a cue to activate system-2 type reasoning. The second contribution explores Managerial Algorithmics Theory (M. Moldoveanu [2009] Strategic Management Journal, v. 30, pp. 737-763); an ambitious research program that states that managers display cognitive choices with a "preference towards solving problems of low computational complexity". An empirical test of this hypothesis is conducted, with results showing that this premise is not supported. A number of problems are designed with the intent of testing the predictions from managerial algorithmics against the predictions of cognitive psychology. The results demonstrate (once again) that framing effects profoundly affect choice, and (an original insight) that managers are unable to distinguish computational complexity problem classes. The third contribution explores a new approach to a computationally complex problem in marketing: the shelf space allocation problem (M-H Yang [2001] European Journal of Operational Research, v. 131, pp.107--118). A new representation for a genetic algorithm is developed, and computational experiments demonstrate its feasibility as a practical solution method. These studies lie at the interface of psychology and economics (with bounded rationality and the heuristics and biases programme), psychology, strategy, and computational complexity, and heuristics for computationally hard problems in management science.

Approximate recursive equilibrium with minimal state space

This paper shows existence of approximate recursive equilibrium with minimal state space in an environment of incomplete markets. We prove that the approximate recursive equilibrium implements an approximate sequential equilibrium which is always close to a Magill and Quinzii equilibrium without short sales for arbitrarily small errors. This implies that the competitive equilibrium can be implemented by using forecast statistics with minimal state space provided that agents will reduce errors in their estimates in the long run. We have also developed an alternative algorithm to compute the approximate recursive equilibrium with incomplete markets and heterogeneous agents through a procedure of iterating functional equations and without using the rst order conditions of optimality.

Extreme poverty and development: the role of state in the assurance of minimal existence conditions

This paper follows the idea of Amartya Sen, Nobel Prize of economic, about the role of State in the assurance of minimal existence condition, and aim to answer how countries of Latin America (specifically Brazil) and countries of Europe (specifically United Kingdom) deal with the assurance of this minimal existence conditions. According to Amartya Sen’s view, development must be seen as a process of expanding substantive freedoms, such expansion being the primary purpose of each society and the main mean of development. Substantive freedoms can be considered as basic capabilities allocated to individuals whereby they are entitled to be architects of their own lives, providing them conditions to “live as they wish”. These basic capabilities are divided by Amartya Sen in 5 (five) kinds of substantive freedoms, but for this article’s purpose, we will consider just one of this 5 (five) kinds, specifically the Protective Safety capability. Protective Safety capability may be defined as the assurance of basic means of survival for individuals who are in extreme poverty, at risk of starvation or hypothermia, or even impending famine. Among the means available that could be used to avoid such situations are the possibility of supplemental income to the needy, distributing food and clothing to the needy, supply of energy and water, among others. But how countries deal whit this protective safety? Aiming to answer this question, we selected the problem of “fuel poverty” and how Brazil and United Kingdom solve it (if they solve), in order to assess how the solution found impacts development. The analysis and the comparison between these countries will allow an answer to the question proposed.

An Optimum-Path Forest framework for intrusion detection in computer networks

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Evolutionary Changes in the Complexity of the Tectum of Nontetrapods: A Cladistic Approach

Background: The tectum is a structure localized in the roof of the midbrain in vertebrates, and is taken to be highly conserved in evolution. The present article assessed three hypotheses concerning the evolution of lamination and citoarchitecture of the tectum of nontetrapod animals: 1) There is a significant degree of phylogenetic inertia in both traits studied (number of cellular layers and number of cell classes in tectum); 2) Both traits are positively correlated accross evolution after correction for phylogeny; and 3) Different developmental pathways should generate different patterns of lamination and cytoarchitecture.Methodology/Principal Findings: The hypotheses were tested using analytical-computational tools for phylogenetic hypothesis testing. Both traits presented a considerably large phylogenetic signal and were positively associated. However, no difference was found between two clades classified as per the general developmental pathways of their brains.Conclusions/Significance: The evidence amassed points to more variation in the tectum than would be expected by phylogeny in three species from the taxa analysed; this variation is not better explained by differences in the main course of development, as would be predicted by the developmental clade hypothesis. Those findings shed new light on the evolution of an functionally important structure in nontetrapods, the most basal radiations of vertebrates.

Bound states of the Duffin-Kemmer-Petiau equation with a mixed minimal-nonminimal vector cusp potential

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

CERN LHC signals for a neutrino mass model with bilinear R-parity violating minimal anomaly mediated supersymmetry

We investigate a neutrino mass model in which the neutrino data is accounted for by bilinear R-parity violating supersymmetry with anomaly mediated supersymmetry breaking. We focus on the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) phenomenology, studying the reach of generic supersymmetry search channels with leptons, missing energy and jets. A special feature of this model is the existence of long-lived neutralinos and charginos which decay inside the detector leading to detached vertices. We demonstrate that the largest reach is obtained in the displaced vertices channel and that practically all of the reasonable parameter space will be covered with an integrated luminosity of 10 fb(-1). We also compare the displaced vertex reaches of the LHC and Tevatron.

Wear Particle Classifier System Based on an Artificial Neural Network

This paper describes a method of identifying morphological attributes that classify wear particles in relation to the wear process from which they originate and permit the automatic identification without human expertise. The method is based on the use of Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) for analysis of specific types of microscopic wear particles. The classification of the wear particles was performed according to their morphological attributes of size and aspect ratio, among others. (C) 2010 Journal of Mechanical Engineering. All rights reserved.

Frequency synthesizer using a hybrid analog/digital loop filter: A low complexity approach

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Uma análise da aplicação do modelo de Rede Neural RePART em Comitês de classificadores

RePART (Reward/Punishment ART) is a neural model that constitutes a variation of the Fuzzy Artmap model. This network was proposed in order to minimize the inherent problems in the Artmap-based model, such as the proliferation of categories and misclassification. RePART makes use of additional mechanisms, such as an instance counting parameter, a reward/punishment process and a variable vigilance parameter. The instance counting parameter, for instance, aims to minimize the misclassification problem, which is a consequence of the sensitivity to the noises, frequently presents in Artmap-based models. On the other hand, the use of the variable vigilance parameter tries to smoouth out the category proliferation problem, which is inherent of Artmap-based models, decreasing the complexity of the net. RePART was originally proposed in order to minimize the aforementioned problems and it was shown to have better performance (higer accuracy and lower complexity) than Artmap-based models. This work proposes an investigation of the performance of the RePART model in classifier ensembles. Different sizes, learning strategies and structures will be used in this investigation. As a result of this investigation, it is aimed to define the main advantages and drawbacks of this model, when used as a component in classifier ensembles. This can provide a broader foundation for the use of RePART in other pattern recognition applications

Abordagem de construção de arquitetura homogênea para comitês via meta-aprendizagem

In the world we are constantly performing everyday actions. Two of these actions are frequent and of great importance: classify (sort by classes) and take decision. When we encounter problems with a relatively high degree of complexity, we tend to seek other opinions, usually from people who have some knowledge or even to the extent possible, are experts in the problem domain in question in order to help us in the decision-making process. Both the classification process as the process of decision making, we are guided by consideration of the characteristics involved in the specific problem. The characterization of a set of objects is part of the decision making process in general. In Machine Learning this classification happens through a learning algorithm and the characterization is applied to databases. The classification algorithms can be employed individually or by machine committees. The choice of the best methods to be used in the construction of a committee is a very arduous task. In this work, it will be investigated meta-learning techniques in selecting the best configuration parameters of homogeneous committees for applications in various classification problems. These parameters are: the base classifier, the architecture and the size of this architecture. We investigated nine types of inductors candidates for based classifier, two methods of generation of architecture and nine medium-sized groups for architecture. Dimensionality reduction techniques have been applied to metabases looking for improvement. Five classifiers methods are investigated as meta-learners in the process of choosing the best parameters of a homogeneous committee.

In silico network topology-based prediction of gene essentiality

The identification of genes essential for survival is important for the understanding of the minimal requirements for cellular life and for drug design. As experimental studies with the purpose of building a catalog of essential genes for a given organism are time-consuming and laborious, a computational approach which could predict gene essentiality with high accuracy would be of great value. We present here a novel computational approach, called NTPGE (Network Topology-based Prediction of Gene Essentiality), that relies on the network topology features of a gene to estimate its essentiality. The first step of NTPGE is to construct the integrated molecular network for a given organism comprising protein physical, metabolic and transcriptional regulation interactions. The second step consists in training a decision-tree-based machine-learning algorithm on known essential and non-essential genes of the organism of interest, considering as learning attributes the network topology information for each of these genes. Finally, the decision-tree classifier generated is applied to the set of genes of this organism to estimate essentiality for each gene. We applied the NTPGE approach for discovering the essential genes in Escherichia coli and then assessed its performance. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Towards the prediction of essential genes by integration of network topology, cellular localization and biological process information

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)