On the predictive content of leading indicators: the case of U.S. real estate markets

This paper employs a probit and a Markov switching model using information from the Conference Board Leading Indicator and other predictor variables to forecast the signs of future rental growth in four key U.S. commercial rent series. We find that both approaches have considerable power to predict changes in the direction of commercial rents up to two years ahead, exhibiting strong improvements over a naïve model, especially for the warehouse and apartment sectors. We find that while the Markov switching model appears to be more successful, it lags behind actual turnarounds in market outcomes whereas the probit is able to detect whether rental growth will be positive or negative several quarters ahead.

Pinniped Populations at Islas ae Guadalupe, San Benito, Cedros, and Natividad, Baja California, in 1968

In April and June 1968, the Pacific Ocean Biological Survey Program (POBSP) of the Smithsonian Institution conducted surveys on breeding marine birds and pinnipeds on various Mexican islands. Between 18 to 26 April and 21 to 29 June, pinniped populations were surveyed at Islas de Guadalupe, San Benito, Cedros, and Natividad off Baja California. Species observed were the California sea lion, Zalophus californianus, Guadalupe fur seal, Arctocephalus townsendi, harbor seal, Phoca vitulina, and northern elephant seal, Mirounga angustirostris

Draft U.S. Pacific Marine Mammal Stock Assessments: 2009

Under the 1994 amendments to the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA), the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) are required to publish Stock Assessment Reports for all stocks of marine mammals within U.S. waters, to review new information every year for strategic stocks and every three years for non-strategic stocks, and to update the stock assessment reports when significant new information becomes available. This report presents stock assessments for 13 Pacific marine mammal stocks under NMFS jurisdiction, including 8 “strategic” stocks and 5 “non-strategic” stocks (see summary table). A new stock assessment for humpback whales in American Samoa waters is included in the Pacific reports for the first time. New or revised abundance estimates are available for 9 stocks, including Eastern North Pacific blue whales, American Samoa humpback whales, five U.S. west coast harbor porpoise stocks, the Hawaiian monk seal, and southern resident killer whales. A change in the abundance estimate of Eastern North Pacific blue whales reflects a recommendation from the Pacific Scientific Review Group to utilize mark-recapture estimates for this population, which provide a better estimate of total population size than the average of recent line-transect and mark-recapture estimates. The ‘Northern Oregon/Washington Coast Stock’ harbor porpoise stock assessment includes a name change (‘Oregon’ is appended to ‘Northern Oregon’) to reflect recent stock boundary changes. Changes in abundance estimates for the two stocks of harbor porpoise that occur in Oregon waters are the result of these boundary changes, and do not reflect biological changes in the populations. Updated information on the three stocks of false killer whales in Hawaiian waters is also included in these reports. Information on the remaining 50 Pacific region stocks will be reprinted without revision in the final 2009 reports and currently appears in the 2008 reports (Carretta et al. 2009). Stock Assessments for Alaskan marine mammals are published by the National Marine Mammal Laboratory (NMML) in a separate report. Pacific region stock assessments include those studied by the Southwest Fisheries Science Center (SWFSC, La Jolla, California), the Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center (PIFSC, Honolulu, Hawaii), the National Marine Mammal Laboratory (NMML, Seattle, Washington), and the Northwest Fisheries Science Center (NWFSC, Seattle, WA). Northwest Fisheries Science Center staff prepared the report on the Eastern North Pacific Southern Resident killer whale. National Marine Mammal Laboratory staff prepared the Northern Oregon/Washington coast harbor porpoise stock assessment. Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center staff prepared the report on the Hawaiian monk seal. Southwest Fisheries Science Center staff prepared stock assessments for 9 stocks. The stock assessment for the American Samoa humpback whale was prepared by staff from the Center for Coastal Studies, Hawaiian Islands Humpback National Marine Sanctuary, the Smithsonian Institution, and the Southwest Fisheries Science Center. Draft versions of the stock assessment reports were reviewed by the Pacific Scientific Review Group at the November 2008, Maui meeting. The authors also wish to thank those who provided unpublished data, especially Robin Baird and Joseph Mobley, who provided valuable information on Hawaiian cetaceans. Any omissions or errors are the sole responsibility of the authors. This is a working document and individual stock assessment reports will be updated as new information on marine mammal stocks and fisheries becomes available. Background information and guidelines for preparing stock assessment reports are reviewed in Wade and Angliss (1997). The authors solicit any new information or comments which would improve future stock assessment reports. These Stock Assessment Reports summarize information from a wide range of sources and an extensive bibliography of all sources is given in each report. We strongly urge users of this document to refer to and cite original literature sources rather than citing this report or previous Stock Assessment Reports. If the original sources are not accessible, the citation should follow the format: [Original source], as cited in [this Stock Assessment Report citation].

Portraits of Protestant Teens: A Report on Teenagers in Major U.S. Denominations

This report examines the religious beliefs and practices of American Protestant teenagers using new, nationally representative survey data from the National Study of Youth and Religion (NSYR). The NSYR is a major study of the religious and spiritual lives of contemporary American teens, which recently produced a book on its major findings entitled, Soul Searching: the Religious and Spiritual Lives of American Teenagers (by Christian Smith with Melinda Lundquist Denton, Oxford University Press, 2005). In addition to broadly describing the religious outlook of Protestant teenagers today — and as a more detailed, descriptive follow-up to that book — this report highlights several positive and negative experiences and evaluations of teenagers in different Protestant denominations and groupings of denominations. In brief, this report presents the following findings in these areas of interest: ♦ Religious Participation: Protestant teenagers are relatively active in religious organizations and activities, both within and beyond their churches. About one-half of all Protestant teens attend church weekly, participate in Sunday school or in a religious youth group, pray and attend a religious summer camp or retreat, though less than one-third read the Bible each week. This also means, however, that substantial numbers of Protestant teens are not actively participating in their religious traditions. Teens from conservative denominations such as Southern Baptist Convention and Assemblies of God are especially likely to regularly attend church and participate in other religious activities. ♦ Theological Beliefs: Protestant teenagers are likely to hold many traditional Christian religious beliefs. The majority of Protestant teens say they believe in God, the afterlife, angels, demons, miracles, judgment day and they view God as a personal being involved in the lives of people today. Sizable numbers of Protestant teens, on the other hand, do not hold these traditional Christian religious beliefs. Teens from conservative and black Protestant denominations are more likely than mainline Protestant teens to hold these religious beliefs. ♦ Importance of Faith: The majority of Protestant teenagers report that their religious faith is very important in their lives. Most of them also say that their families talk about religion together, that they have shared their faith with someone not of their faith and that they have had a powerful worship experience. A large minority of all Protestant teenagers, and in the case of some denominations a majority of teenagers, do not report that religious faith is very important in their lives. Teens from conservative and black Protestant denominations are particularly likely to report that faith is important in their lives. ♦ Evaluations of Churches: The majority of Protestant teenagers express relatively positive views of their churches and fellow church members. They typically report that they would continue to attend church if it were totally up to them, that they would attend a similar church if given the choice and that their current church is generally warm and welcoming. Protestant adolescents, however, do have some reservations about and problems with their churches and fellow church attendees, as spelled out in the following pages, particularly with other teenage attendees.

Solar Forcing of Gulf of California Climate During The Past 2000 Yr Suggested by Diatoms and Silicoflagellates

High-resolution records of the past 2000 yr are compared in a north–south transect (28° N to 24° N) of three cores from the eastern slopes of the Guaymas, Carmen, and Pescadero Basins of the Gulf of California (hereafter referred to as the “Gulf”). Evenly-spaced samples from the varved sediments in each core allow sample resolution ranging from ∼ 16 to ∼ 37 yr. Diatoms and silicoflagellates capture the seasonal variation between a late fall to early spring period of high biosiliceous productivity, that is driven by northwest winds, and a summer period of warmer, more stratified waters during which these winds slacken and/or reverse direction (monsoonal flow). As these winds decrease, tropical waters enter the Gulf and spread northward. Individual samples represent a composite of 7 to 23 yr of deposition and are assumed to record the relative dominance of the winter vs. summer floral components. Intervals of enhanced summer incursion of tropical waters, alternating with periods of increased late fall to early spring biosiliceous productivity are recorded in all three cores. Regularly spaced cycles (∼ 100 yr duration) of Octactis pulchra, a silicoflagellate proxy for lower SST and high productivity, and Azpeitia nodulifera, a tropical diatom, occur between ∼ A.D. 400 and ∼ 1700 in the more nearshore Carmen Basin core, NH01-21 (26.3° N), suggesting a possible solar influence on coastal upwelling. Cores BAM80 E-17 (27.9° N) and NH01-26 (24.3° N) contain longer-duration cycles of diatoms and silicoflagellates. The early part of Medieval Climate Anomaly (∼ A.D. 900 to 1200) is characterized by two periods of reduced productivity (warmer SST) with an intervening high productivity (cool) interval centered at ∼ A.D. 1050. Reduced productivity and higher SST also characterize the record of the last ∼ 100 to 200 yr in these cores. Solar variability appears to be driving productivity cycles, as intervals of increased radiocarbon production (sunspot minima) correlate with intervals of enhanced productivity. It is proposed that increased winter cooling of the atmosphere above southwest U.S. during sunspot minima causes intensification of the northwest winds that blow down the Gulf during the late fall to early spring, leading to intensified overturn of surface waters and enhanced productivity. A new silicoflagellate species, Dictyocha franshepardii Bukry, is described and illustrated.

CLOSING REMARKS - FOURTH VERTEBRATE PEST CONFERENCE

On behalf of the California Vertebrate Pest Committee, which sponsors these conferences, I wish to thank all of the speakers for their contribution to the program and the session chairmen who kept the meeting moving so smoothly. We would like to extend a special thanks to the speakers and participants who have come from other countries to share with us some of their knowledge concerning vertebrate pest problems and their solutions. Hopefully, the acquaintances made here and the exchange of information with our colleagues from distant places will be the beginning of long-lasting friendships and will foster better communications between those with mutual interests.

AN OVERVIEW OF DEPREDATING BIRD DAMAGE CONTROL IN CALIFORNIA

To many people, California is synonomous with Disneyland, freeways, Los Angeles smog, Yosemite, the California missions, or for you bird aficionados, the California Condor. But do you think about California when you eat strawberry shortcake? You should -- California leads the nation in strawberry production. How about artichokes? California produces over 98% of the artichokes raised in the United States. Dates? California produces over 99% of the dates in the United States. Yes, California is all of these, and it is much more. California may well be the most diverse state in the United States. Within its 100.2 million acres, California has the lowest place in the U.S. in Death Valley and one of the highest mountains with Mt. Whitney. Because California is such a diverse state and has a wide variety of micro- climates, it supports a uniquely diverse agriculture. Agriculture uses only about 36 million acres of its total 100.2 million acres, and most of the cash return from crops is produced on 8,6 million acres that are irrigated. California produces about 250 crops and livestock commodities (excluding nursery crops) and provides the U.S. with about 25% of its table foods. California leads the nation in the production of 46 commercial crops and livestock commodities; its farmers and ranchers marketed $8.6 billion of crop and livestock products in 1975, and the state’s harvested farm production in 1975 set a new record at 51.1 million tons. HISTORY OF BIRD PROBLEMS Records such as this are not achieved without some risk. Crops growing in Cali- fornia have always had competition from many types of vertebrate pests. The wide variety of crops grown in California and the varied climates and situations in which they are grown has resulted in many different species of birds damaging crops. Birds have compet- ed with man for his crops since the dawn of agriculture. McAtee (1932) cited examples of bird damage that occurred in a wide variety of crops in California during the early 1900s. During the 1920s, many requests for Information and relief from damage caused by a wide variety of birds, culminated in the assignment, in May 1929, of two biologists, S. E. Piper and Johnson Neff, of the former U.S. Bio- logical Survey, to initiate field studies in California. In cooperation with the Cali- fornia Department of Food and Agriculture and County Agricultural Commissioners, the study was to determine the problems and devise control procedures relative to bird depredations. Piper and Neff found such damage as Horned Larks pulling sprouting crops, House Finches disbudding deciduous fruit trees and devouring mature fruit. Blackbirds were a problem in the rice crop. Early controls were varied and, for the most part, lacked effectiveness. Flagging of fields was common to deter Horned Larks. Windmill devices were tried to frighten birds. Shooting to kill birds was common; scarecrows were.used. The six-year study brought forth the basis of most of the depredating bird control techniques still in use in California. At the end of the study, these two biologists compiled a book called “Procedure and Methods in Controlling Birds Injurious to Crops in California.” This was and still is the “Bible” for bird damage control techniques used in California. The thorough investigations conducted by these biologists resulted in techniques that have remained valid in California for over 40 years.

CONTROLLING YELLOW-BILLED MAGPIES (Pica nuttalli)

The yellow-billed magpie is a little smaller than the American or black-billed magpie, but the difference in size is very slight. The birds look exactly alike, except one has a black beak and the other has a yellow bill and a bit of yellow skin back of the eye.There are concentrated populations in the Los Banos area, Gustine area, and along the course of the Merced River comprising about 19,100 acres. They are occasionally seen in other areas of the County, but only infrequently observed in the southwestern portion of the County. The heaviest populations are in walnut orchards, dairy farms, almond orchards, turkey ranches and areas adjacent to river bottoms.The yellow-billed magpie may represent a dying ancient race. Since scientific interest has been directed toward its habits and distribution, its range has become more restricted. There are reports that 50 or 60 years ago it was common in many places close to the Coast, where the observer would now look for it in vain. It inhabits only the interior of California west of the Sierra Nevada, chiefly in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. It haunts stock ranches, because food to its liking is usually plentiful in such places. When cattle and sheep are butchered the refuse attracts magpies. They gather about any dead animal. They feed on grasshoppers, worms and grubs, and of course always look for a reasonable supply of eggs.

The Role of Fraternal Organisation in Migration and Informal Labour Organisations in Mining Communities: Cornwall, the Keweenaw, and California Compared

During the second half of the nineteenth century fraternal and benevolent associations of numerous descriptions grew and prospered in mining communities everywhere. They played an important, but neglected role, in assisting transatlantic migration and movement between mining districts as well as building social capital within emerging mining communities. They helped to build bridges between different ethnic communities, provided conduits between labour and management, and networked miners into the non-mining community. Their influence spread beyond the adult males that made up most of their membership to their wives and families and provided levels of social and economic support otherwise unobtainable at that time. Of course, the influence of these organisations could also be divisive where certain groups or religions were excluded and they may have worked to exacerbate, as much as ameliorate, the problems of community development. This paper will examine some of these issues by looking particularly at the role of Freemasonry and Oddfellowry in Cornwall, Calumet, and Nevada City between 1860 and 1900. Work on fraternity in the Keweenaw was undertaken in Houghton some years ago with a grant from the Copper Country Archive and has since been continued by privately funded research in California and other Western mining states. Some British aspects of this research can be found in my article on mining industrial relations in Labour History Review April 2006

Past is Prologue: Montana’s Historic Women’s Movement Re-emerges in the Progressive 1970s -- Dorothy Bradley, Marilyn Wessel & Jane Jelinski “In the Crucible of Change”

One-hundred years ago, in 1914, male voters in Montana (MT) extended suffrage (voting rights) to women six years before the 19th Amendment to the US Constitution was ratified and provided that right to women in all states. The long struggle for women’s suffrage was energized in the progressive era and Jeanette Rankin of Missoula emerged as a leader of the campaign; in 1912 both major MT political party platforms supported women suffrage. In the 1914 election, 41,000 male voters supported woman suffrage while nearly 38,000 opposed it. MT was not only ahead of the curve on women suffrage, but just two years later in 1916 elected Jeanette Rankin as the first woman ever elected to the United States Congress. Rankin became a national leader for women's equality. In her commitment to equality, she opposed US entry into World War I, partially because she said she could not support men being made to go to war if women were not allowed to serve alongside them. During MT’s initial progressive era, women in MT not only pursued equality for themselves (the MT Legislature passed an equal pay act in 1919), but pursued other social improvements, such as temperance/prohibition. Well-known national women leaders such as Carrie Nation and others found a welcome in MT during the period. Women's role in the trade union movement was evidenced in MT by the creation of the Women's Protective Union in Butte, the first union in America dedicated solely to women workers. But Rankin’s defeat following her vote against World War I was used as a way for opponents to advocate a conservative, traditionalist perspective on women's rights in MT. Just as we then entered a period in MT where the “copper collar” was tightened around MT economically and politically by the Anaconda Company and its allies, we also found a different kind of conservative, traditionalist collar tightened around the necks of MT women. The recognition of women's role during World War II, represented by “Rosie the Riveter,” made it more difficult for that conservative, traditionalist approach to be forever maintained. In addition, women's role in MT agriculture – family farms and ranches -- spoke strongly to the concept of equality, as farm wives were clearly active partners in the agricultural enterprises. But rural MT was, by and large, the bastion of conservative values relative to the position of women in society. As the period of “In the Crucible of Change” began, the 1965 MT Legislature included only three women. In 1967 and 1969 only one woman legislator served. In 1971 the number went up to two, including one of our guests, Dorothy Bradley. It was only after the Constitutional Convention, which featured 19 women delegates, that the barrier was broken. The 1973 Legislature saw 9 women elected. The 1975 and 1977 sessions had 14 women legislators; 15 were elected for the 1979 session. At that time progressive women and men in the Legislature helped implement the equality provisions of the new MT Constitution, ratified the federal Equal Rights Amendment in 1974, and held back national and local conservatives forces which sought in later Legislatures to repeal that ratification. As with the national movement at the time, MT women sought and often succeeded in adopting legal mechanisms that protected women’s equality, while full equality in the external world remained (and remains) a treasured objective. The story of the re-emergence of Montana’s women’s movement in the 1970s is discussed in this chapter by three very successful and prominent women who were directly involved in the effort: Dorothy Bradley, Marilyn Wessel, and Jane Jelinski. Their recollections of the political, sociological and cultural path Montana women pursued in the 1970s and the challenges and opposition they faced provide an insider’s perspective of the battle for equality for women under the Big Sky “In the Crucible of Change.” Dorothy Bradley grew up in Bozeman, Montana; received her Bachelor of Arts Phi Beta Kappa from Colorado College, Colorado Springs, in 1969 with a Distinction in Anthropology; and her Juris Doctor from American University in Washington, D.C., in 1983. In 1970, at the age of 22, following the first Earth Day and running on an environmental platform, Ms. Bradley won a seat in the 1971 Montana House of Representatives where she served as the youngest member and only woman. Bradley established a record of achievement on environmental & progressive legislation for four terms, before giving up the seat to run a strong second to Pat Williams for the Democratic nomination for an open seat in Montana’s Western Congressional District. After becoming an attorney and an expert on water law, she returned to the Legislature for 4 more terms in the mid-to-late 1980s. Serving a total of eight terms, Dorothy was known for her leadership on natural resources, tax reform, economic development, and other difficult issues during which time she gained recognition for her consensus-building approach. Campaigning by riding her horse across the state, Dorothy was the Democratic nominee for Governor in 1992, losing the race by less than a percentage point. In 1993 she briefly taught at a small rural school next to the Northern Cheyenne Indian Reservation. She was then hired as the Director of the Montana University System Water Center, an education and research arm of Montana State University. From 2000 - 2008 she served as the first Gallatin County Court Administrator with the task of collaboratively redesigning the criminal justice system. She currently serves on One Montana’s Board, is a National Advisor for the American Prairie Foundation, and is on NorthWestern Energy’s Board of Directors. Dorothy was recognized with an Honorary Doctorate from her alma mater, Colorado College, was named Business Woman of the Year by the Bozeman Chamber of Commerce and MSU Alumni Association, and was Montana Business and Professional Women’s Montana Woman of Achievement. Marilyn Wessel was born in Iowa, lived and worked in Los Angeles, California, and Washington, D.C. before moving to Bozeman in 1972. She has an undergraduate degree in journalism from Iowa State University, graduate degree in public administration from Montana State University, certification from the Harvard University Institute for Education Management, and served a senior internship with the U.S. Congress, Montana delegation. In Montana Marilyn has served in a number of professional positions, including part-time editor for the Montana Cooperative Extension Service, News Director for KBMN Radio, Special Assistant to the President and Director of Communications at Montana State University, Director of University Relations at Montana State University and Dean and Director of the Museum of the Rockies at MSU. Marilyn retired from MSU as Dean Emeritus in 2003. Her past Board Service includes Montana State Merit System Council, Montana Ambassadors, Vigilante Theater Company, Montana State Commission on Practice, Museum of the Rockies, Helena Branch of the Ninth District Federal Reserve Bank, Burton K. Wheeler Center for Public Policy, Bozeman Chamber of Commerce, and Friends of KUSM Public Television. Marilyn’s past publications and productions include several articles on communications and public administration issues as well as research, script preparation and presentation of several radio documentaries and several public television programs. She is co-author of one book, 4-H An American Idea: A History of 4-H. Marilyn’s other past volunteer activities and organizations include Business and Professional Women, Women's Political Caucus, League of Women Voters, and numerous political campaigns. She is currently engaged professionally in museum-related consulting and part-time teaching at Montana State University as well as serving on the Editorial Board of the Bozeman Daily Chronicle and a member of Pilgrim Congregational Church and Family Promise. Marilyn and her husband Tom, a retired MSU professor, live in Bozeman. She enjoys time with her children and grandchildren, hiking, golf, Italian studies, cooking, gardening and travel. Jane Jelinski is a Wisconsin native, with a BA from Fontbonne College in St. Louis, MO who taught fifth and seventh grades prior to moving to Bozeman in 1973. A stay-at-home mom with a five year old daughter and an infant son, she was promptly recruited by the Gallatin Women’s Political Caucus to conduct a study of Sex-Role Stereotyping in K Through 6 Reading Text Books in the Bozeman School District. Sociologist Dr. Louise Hale designed the study and did the statistical analysis and Jane read all the texts, entered the data and wrote the report. It was widely disseminated across Montana and received attention of the press. Her next venture into community activism was to lead the successful effort to downzone her neighborhood which was under threat of encroaching business development. Today the neighborhood enjoys the protections of a Historic Preservation District. During this time she earned her MPA from Montana State University. Subsequently Jane founded the Gallatin Advocacy Program for Developmentally Disabled Adults in 1978 and served as its Executive Director until her appointment to the Gallatin County Commission in 1984, a controversial appointment which she chronicled in the Fall issue of the Gallatin History Museum Quarterly. Copies of the issue can be ordered through: http://gallatinhistorymuseum.org/the-museum-bookstore/shop/. Jane was re-elected three times as County Commissioner, serving fourteen years. She was active in the Montana Association of Counties (MACO) and was elected its President in 1994. She was also active in the National Association of Counties, serving on numerous policy committees. In 1998 Jane resigned from the County Commission 6 months before the end of her final term to accept the position of Assistant Director of MACO, from where she lobbied for counties, provided training and research for county officials, and published a monthly newsletter. In 2001 she became Director of the MSU Local Government Center where she continued to provide training and research for county and municipal officials across MT. There she initiated the Montana Mayors Academy in partnership with MMIA. She taught State and Local Government, Montana Politics and Public Administration in the MSU Political Science Department before retiring in 2008. Jane has been married to Jack for 46 years, has two grown children and three grandchildren.