903 resultados para Maximum pseudo-likelihood
Resumo:
A avaliação dos atributos químicos e físicos do solo é necessária em estudos que exploram intensivamente os sistemas de pastejo. No presente trabalho, objetivou-se avaliar as variações nos atributos físicos e químicos de um Argissolo cultivado com capim-milênio, sob pastejo, no intervalo compreendido entre outubro/2001 e maio/2002, no quinto ano de aplicação sucessiva das seguintes doses de N: 0, 150, 300 e 450 kg ha-1. Após os cinco anos de aplicação de 450 kg ha-1 de N, o teor de MO aumentou em 5 g dm-3, o que resultou em aumento da CTC. No período de outubro/2001 a maio/2002 houve diminuição nos valores de pH e de V com a aplicação de N. A densidade do solo variou pouco com a adubação nitrogenada; a percentagem de microporos aumentou e a de macroporos diminuiu na camada de 0-5 cm com o aumento das doses de N, mas a porosidade total permaneceu constante; e a resistência à penetração, quando o solo apresentava 90 g kg-1 de água, não foi afetada pelas doses de N e não foi restritiva ao crescimento das plantas.
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OBJECTIVES: To monitor HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance (TDR) in a well defined urban area with large access to antiretroviral therapy and to assess the potential source of infection of newly diagnosed HIV individuals. METHODS: All individuals resident in Geneva, Switzerland, with a newly diagnosed HIV infection between 2000 and 2008 were screened for HIV resistance. An infection was considered as recent when the positive test followed a negative screening test within less than 1 year. Phylogenetic analyses were performed by using the maximum likelihood method on pol sequences including 1058 individuals with chronic infection living in Geneva. RESULTS: Of 637 individuals with newly diagnosed HIV infection, 20% had a recent infection. Mutations associated with resistance to at least one drug class were detected in 8.5% [nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), 6.3%; non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), 3.5%; protease inhibitors, 1.9%]. TDR (P-trend = 0.015) and, in particular, NNRTI resistance (P = 0.002) increased from 2000 to 2008. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that 34.9% of newly diagnosed individuals, and 52.7% of those with recent infection were linked to transmission clusters. Clusters were more frequent in individuals with TDR than in those with sensitive strains (59.3 vs. 32.6%, respectively; P < 0.0001). Moreover, 84% of newly diagnosed individuals with TDR were part of clusters composed of only newly diagnosed individuals. CONCLUSION: Reconstruction of the HIV transmission networks using phylogenetic analysis shows that newly diagnosed HIV infections are a significant source of onward transmission, particularly of resistant strains, thus suggesting an important self-fueling mechanism for TDR.
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The current availability of five complete genomes of different primate species allows the analysis of genetic divergence over the last 40 million years of evolution. We hypothesized that the interspecies differences observed in susceptibility to HIV-1 would be influenced by the long-range selective pressures on host genes associated with HIV-1 pathogenesis. We established a list of human genes (n = 140) proposed to be involved in HIV-1 biology and pathogenesis and a control set of 100 random genes. We retrieved the orthologous genes from the genome of humans and of four nonhuman primates (Pan troglodytes, Pongo pygmaeus abeli, Macaca mulatta, and Callithrix jacchus) and analyzed the nucleotide substitution patterns of this data set using codon-based maximum likelihood procedures. In addition, we evaluated whether the candidate genes have been targets of recent positive selection in humans by analyzing HapMap Phase 2 single-nucleotide polymorphisms genotyped in a region centered on each candidate gene. A total of 1,064 sequences were used for the analyses. Similar median K(A)/K(S) values were estimated for the set of genes involved in HIV-1 pathogenesis and for control genes, 0.19 and 0.15, respectively. However, genes of the innate immunity had median values of 0.37 (P value = 0.0001, compared with control genes), and genes of intrinsic cellular defense had K(A)/K(S) values around or greater than 1.0 (P value = 0.0002). Detailed assessment allowed the identification of residues under positive selection in 13 proteins: AKT1, APOBEC3G, APOBEC3H, CD4, DEFB1, GML, IL4, IL8RA, L-SIGN/CLEC4M, PTPRC/CD45, Tetherin/BST2, TLR7, and TRIM5alpha. A number of those residues are relevant for HIV-1 biology. The set of 140 genes involved in HIV-1 pathogenesis did not show a significant enrichment in signals of recent positive selection in humans (intraspecies selection). However, we identified within or near these genes 24 polymorphisms showing strong signatures of recent positive selection. Interestingly, the DEFB1 gene presented signatures of both interspecies positive selection in primates and intraspecies recent positive selection in humans. The systematic assessment of long-acting selective pressures on primate genomes is a useful tool to extend our understanding of genetic variation influencing contemporary susceptibility to HIV-1.
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[spa] El índice del máximo y el mínimo nivel es una técnica muy útil, especialmente para toma de decisiones, que usa la distancia de Hamming y el coeficiente de adecuación en el mismo problema. En este trabajo, se propone una generalización a través de utilizar medias generalizadas y cuasi aritméticas. A estos operadores de agregación, se les denominará el índice del máximo y el mínimo nivel medio ponderado ordenado generalizado (GOWAIMAM) y cuasi aritmético (Quasi-OWAIMAM). Estos nuevos operadores generalizan una amplia gama de casos particulares como el índice del máximo y el mínimo nivel generalizado (GIMAM), el OWAIMAM, y otros. También se desarrolla una aplicación en la toma de decisiones sobre selección de productos.
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The structural modeling of spatial dependence, using a geostatistical approach, is an indispensable tool to determine parameters that define this structure, applied on interpolation of values at unsampled points by kriging techniques. However, the estimation of parameters can be greatly affected by the presence of atypical observations in sampled data. The purpose of this study was to use diagnostic techniques in Gaussian spatial linear models in geostatistics to evaluate the sensitivity of maximum likelihood and restrict maximum likelihood estimators to small perturbations in these data. For this purpose, studies with simulated and experimental data were conducted. Results with simulated data showed that the diagnostic techniques were efficient to identify the perturbation in data. The results with real data indicated that atypical values among the sampled data may have a strong influence on thematic maps, thus changing the spatial dependence structure. The application of diagnostic techniques should be part of any geostatistical analysis, to ensure a better quality of the information from thematic maps.
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This article analyses and discusses issues that pertain to the choice of relevant databases for assigning values to the components of evaluative likelihood ratio procedures at source level. Although several formal likelihood ratio developments currently exist, both case practitioners and recipients of expert information (such as judiciary) may be reluctant to consider them as a framework for evaluating scientific evidence in context. The recent ruling R v T and ensuing discussions in many forums provide illustrative examples for this. In particular, it is often felt that likelihood ratio-based reasoning amounts to an application that requires extensive quantitative information along with means for dealing with technicalities related to the algebraic formulation of these approaches. With regard to this objection, this article proposes two distinct discussions. In a first part, it is argued that, from a methodological point of view, there are additional levels of qualitative evaluation that are worth considering prior to focusing on particular numerical probability assignments. Analyses will be proposed that intend to show that, under certain assumptions, relative numerical values, as opposed to absolute values, may be sufficient to characterize a likelihood ratio for practical and pragmatic purposes. The feasibility of such qualitative considerations points out that the availability of hard numerical data is not a necessary requirement for implementing a likelihood ratio approach in practice. It is further argued that, even if numerical evaluations can be made, qualitative considerations may be valuable because they can further the understanding of the logical underpinnings of an assessment. In a second part, the article will draw a parallel to R v T by concentrating on a practical footwear mark case received at the authors' institute. This case will serve the purpose of exemplifying the possible usage of data from various sources in casework and help to discuss the difficulty associated with reconciling the depth of theoretical likelihood ratio developments and limitations in the degree to which these developments can actually be applied in practice.
Resumo:
[spa] El índice del máximo y el mínimo nivel es una técnica muy útil, especialmente para toma de decisiones, que usa la distancia de Hamming y el coeficiente de adecuación en el mismo problema. En este trabajo, se propone una generalización a través de utilizar medias generalizadas y cuasi aritméticas. A estos operadores de agregación, se les denominará el índice del máximo y el mínimo nivel medio ponderado ordenado generalizado (GOWAIMAM) y cuasi aritmético (Quasi-OWAIMAM). Estos nuevos operadores generalizan una amplia gama de casos particulares como el índice del máximo y el mínimo nivel generalizado (GIMAM), el OWAIMAM, y otros. También se desarrolla una aplicación en la toma de decisiones sobre selección de productos.
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BACKGROUND: The majority of Haemosporida species infect birds or reptiles, but many important genera, including Plasmodium, infect mammals. Dipteran vectors shared by avian, reptilian and mammalian Haemosporida, suggest multiple invasions of Mammalia during haemosporidian evolution; yet, phylogenetic analyses have detected only a single invasion event. Until now, several important mammal-infecting genera have been absent in these analyses. This study focuses on the evolutionary origin of Polychromophilus, a unique malaria genus that only infects bats (Microchiroptera) and is transmitted by bat flies (Nycteribiidae). METHODS: Two species of Polychromophilus were obtained from wild bats caught in Switzerland. These were molecularly characterized using four genes (asl, clpc, coI, cytb) from the three different genomes (nucleus, apicoplast, mitochondrion). These data were then combined with data of 60 taxa of Haemosporida available in GenBank. Bayesian inference, maximum likelihood and a range of rooting methods were used to test specific hypotheses concerning the phylogenetic relationships between Polychromophilus and the other haemosporidian genera. RESULTS: The Polychromophilus melanipherus and Polychromophilus murinus samples show genetically distinct patterns and group according to species. The Bayesian tree topology suggests that the monophyletic clade of Polychromophilus falls within the avian/saurian clade of Plasmodium and directed hypothesis testing confirms the Plasmodium origin. CONCLUSION: Polychromophilus' ancestor was most likely a bird- or reptile-infecting Plasmodium before it switched to bats. The invasion of mammals as hosts has, therefore, not been a unique event in the evolutionary history of Haemosporida, despite the suspected costs of adapting to a new host. This was, moreover, accompanied by a switch in dipteran host.
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PURPOSE: The aim of our study was to describe the clinical presentation of an unusual evanescent, exudative, choroidal pseudo-tumor with acute painful onset, and propose a pathogenesis. METHODS: We carried out a retrospective, observational study using the case series of three patients presenting with an evanescent, exudative, choroidal pseudo-tumor with acute painful onset. Ultra-widefield fluorescein and indocyanine green angiography (ICGA) using the Heidelberg Retina Angiograph and the Staurenghi 230 SLO Retina Lens were used to propose a pathogenesis of this unusual entity. RESULTS: In all three cases, acute ocular pain led to discovery of an exudative, partially hemorrhagic choroidal mass (thickness 2.4 mm-4.1 mm on ultrasound) that quickly regressed within weeks. In the subacute phase, all patients showed choroidal circulation abnormalities on dynamic wide-field ICGA in the affected quadrant, with delayed arterio-venous filling in two patients, and a poorly-defined vortex vein in the third. The choroidal circulation abnormalities resolved within 8-12 weeks, simultaneously with the spontaneous resolution of the choroidal pseudo-tumor. The findings evoked a self-resolving vortex vein occlusion in the corresponding quadrants with acute, painful choroidal exudation. CONCLUSIONS: An evanescent, exudative, hemorragic choroidal pseudo-tumor with acute painful onset may be caused by a vortex vein occlusion. Future patients need to be studied with ICGA in the acute phase to confirm this hypothesis.
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We determine the structure of neutron stars within a Brueckner-Hartree-Fock approach based on realistic nucleon-nucleon, nucleon-hyperon, and hyperon-hyperon interactions. Our results indicate rather low maximum masses below 1.4 solar masses. This feature is insensitive to the nucleonic part of the EOS due to a strong compensation mechanism caused by the appearance of hyperons and represents thus strong evidence for the presence of nonbaryonic "quark" matter in the interior of heavy stars.
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Leaf analysis is the chemical evaluation of the nutritional status where the nutrient concentrations found in the tissue reflect the nutritional status of the plants. Thus, a correct interpretation of the results of leaf analysis is fundamental for an effective use of this tool. The purpose of this study was to propose and compare the method of Fertilization Response Likelihood (FRL) for interpretation of leaf analysis with that of the Diagnosis and Recommendation Integrated System (DRIS). The database consisted of 157 analyses of the N, P, K, Ca, Mg, S, Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn, and B concentrations in coffee leaves, which were divided into two groups: low yield (< 30 bags ha-1) and high yield (> 30 bags ha-1). The DRIS indices were calculated using the method proposed by Jones (1981). The fertilization response likelihood was computed based on the approximation of normal distribution. It was found that the Fertilization Response Likelihood (FRL) allowed an evaluation of the nutritional status of coffee trees, coinciding with the DRIS-based diagnoses in 84.96 % of the crops.
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Quartz-carbonate-chlorite veins were studied in borehole samples of the RWTH-1 well in Aachen. Veins formed in Devonian rocks in the footwall of the Aachen thrust during Variscan deformation and associated fluid flow. Primary fluid inclusions indicate subsolvus unmixing of a homogenous H(2)O-CO(2)-CH(4)-(N(2))-Na-(K)-Cl fluid into a H(2)O-Na-(K)-Cl solution and a vapour-rich CO(2)-(H(2)O, CH(4), N(2)) fluid. The aqueous end-member composition resembles that of metamorphic fluids of the Variscan front zone with salinities ranging from 4 to 7% NaCl equiv. and maximum homogenisation temperatures of close to 400A degrees C. Pressure estimates indicate a burial depth between 4,500 and 8,000 m at geothermal gradients between 50 and 75A degrees C/26 MPa, but pressure decrease to sublithostatic conditions is also indicated, probably as a consequence of fracture opening during episodic seismic activity. A second fluid system, mainly preserved in pseudo-secondary and secondary fluid inclusions, is characterised by fluid temperatures between 200 and 250A degrees C and salinities of < 5% NaCl equiv. Bulk stable isotope analyses of fluids released from vein quartz, calcite, and dolomite by decrepitation yielded delta D(H2O) values from -89 to -113 aEuro degrees, delta(13)C(CH4) from -26.9 to -28.9aEuro degrees (VPDB) and delta(13)C(CO2) from -12.8 to -23.3aEuro degrees (VPDB). The low delta D and delta(13)C range of the fluids is considered to be due to interaction with cracked hydrocarbons. The second fluid influx caused partial isotope exchange and disequilibrium. It is envisaged that an initial short lived flux of hot metamorphic fluids expelled from the epizonal metamorphic domains of the Stavelot-Venn massif. The metamorphic fluid was focused along major thrust faults of the Variscan front zone such as the Aachen thrust. A second fluid influx was introduced from formation waters in the footwall of the Aachen thrust as a consequence of progressive deformation. Mixing of the cooler and lower salinity formation water with the hot metamorphic fluid during episodic fluid trapping resulted in an evolving range of physicochemical fluid inclusion characteristics.
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Abstract Traditionally, the common reserving methods used by the non-life actuaries are based on the assumption that future claims are going to behave in the same way as they did in the past. There are two main sources of variability in the processus of development of the claims: the variability of the speed with which the claims are settled and the variability between the severity of the claims from different accident years. High changes in these processes will generate distortions in the estimation of the claims reserves. The main objective of this thesis is to provide an indicator which firstly identifies and quantifies these two influences and secondly to determine which model is adequate for a specific situation. Two stochastic models were analysed and the predictive distributions of the future claims were obtained. The main advantage of the stochastic models is that they provide measures of variability of the reserves estimates. The first model (PDM) combines one conjugate family Dirichlet - Multinomial with the Poisson distribution. The second model (NBDM) improves the first one by combining two conjugate families Poisson -Gamma (for distribution of the ultimate amounts) and Dirichlet Multinomial (for distribution of the incremental claims payments). It was found that the second model allows to find the speed variability in the reporting process and development of the claims severity as function of two above mentioned distributions' parameters. These are the shape parameter of the Gamma distribution and the Dirichlet parameter. Depending on the relation between them we can decide on the adequacy of the claims reserve estimation method. The parameters have been estimated by the Methods of Moments and Maximum Likelihood. The results were tested using chosen simulation data and then using real data originating from the three lines of business: Property/Casualty, General Liability, and Accident Insurance. These data include different developments and specificities. The outcome of the thesis shows that when the Dirichlet parameter is greater than the shape parameter of the Gamma, resulting in a model with positive correlation between the past and future claims payments, suggests the Chain-Ladder method as appropriate for the claims reserve estimation. In terms of claims reserves, if the cumulated payments are high the positive correlation will imply high expectations for the future payments resulting in high claims reserves estimates. The negative correlation appears when the Dirichlet parameter is lower than the shape parameter of the Gamma, meaning low expected future payments for the same high observed cumulated payments. This corresponds to the situation when claims are reported rapidly and fewer claims remain expected subsequently. The extreme case appears in the situation when all claims are reported at the same time leading to expectations for the future payments of zero or equal to the aggregated amount of the ultimate paid claims. For this latter case, the Chain-Ladder is not recommended.
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Background: The RPS4 gene codifies for ribosomal protein S4, a very well-conserved protein present in all kingdoms. In primates, RPS4 is codified by two functional genes located on both sex chromosomes: the RPS4X and RPS4Y genes. In humans, RPS4Y is duplicated and the Y chromosome therefore carries a third functional paralog: RPS4Y2, which presents a testis-specific expression pattern. Results: DNA sequence analysis of the intronic and cDNA regions of RPS4Y genes from species covering the entire primate phylogeny showed that the duplication event leading to the second Y-linked copy occurred after the divergence of New World monkeys, about 35 million years ago. Maximum likelihood analyses of the synonymous and non-synonymous substitutions revealed that positive selection was acting on RPS4Y2 gene in the human lineage, which represents the first evidence of positive selection on a ribosomal protein gene. Putative positive amino acid replacements affected the three domains of the protein: one of these changes is located in the KOW protein domain and affects the unique invariable position of this motif, and might thus have a dramatic effect on the protein function.Conclusion: Here, we shed new light on the evolutionary history of RPS4Y gene family, especially on that of RPS4Y2. The results point that the RPS4Y1 gene might be maintained to compensate gene dosage between sexes, while RPS4Y2 might have acquired a new function, at least in the lineage leading to humans.