A comprehensive benchmarking system for evaluating global vegetation models.

We present a benchmark system for global vegetation models. This system provides a quantitative evaluation of multiple simulated vegetation properties, including primary production; seasonal net ecosystem production; vegetation cover, composition and 5 height; fire regime; and runoff. The benchmarks are derived from remotely sensed gridded datasets and site-based observations. The datasets allow comparisons of annual average conditions and seasonal and inter-annual variability, and they allow the impact of spatial and temporal biases in means and variability to be assessed separately. Specifically designed metrics quantify model performance for each process, 10 and are compared to scores based on the temporal or spatial mean value of the observations and a “random” model produced by bootstrap resampling of the observations. The benchmark system is applied to three models: a simple light-use efficiency and water-balance model (the Simple Diagnostic Biosphere Model: SDBM), and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) and Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX) dynamic global 15 vegetation models (DGVMs). SDBM reproduces observed CO2 seasonal cycles, but its simulation of independent measurements of net primary production (NPP) is too high. The two DGVMs show little difference for most benchmarks (including the interannual variability in the growth rate and seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2), but LPX represents burnt fraction demonstrably more accurately. Benchmarking also identified 20 several weaknesses common to both DGVMs. The benchmarking system provides a quantitative approach for evaluating how adequately processes are represented in a model, identifying errors and biases, tracking improvements in performance through model development, and discriminating among models. Adoption of such a system would do much to improve confidence in terrestrial model predictions of climate change 25 impacts and feedbacks.

A comprehensive benchmarking system for evaluating global vegetation models

We present a benchmark system for global vegetation models. This system provides a quantitative evaluation of multiple simulated vegetation properties, including primary production; seasonal net ecosystem production; vegetation cover; composition and height; fire regime; and runoff. The benchmarks are derived from remotely sensed gridded datasets and site-based observations. The datasets allow comparisons of annual average conditions and seasonal and inter-annual variability, and they allow the impact of spatial and temporal biases in means and variability to be assessed separately. Specifically designed metrics quantify model performance for each process, and are compared to scores based on the temporal or spatial mean value of the observations and a "random" model produced by bootstrap resampling of the observations. The benchmark system is applied to three models: a simple light-use efficiency and water-balance model (the Simple Diagnostic Biosphere Model: SDBM), the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) and Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). In general, the SDBM performs better than either of the DGVMs. It reproduces independent measurements of net primary production (NPP) but underestimates the amplitude of the observed CO2 seasonal cycle. The two DGVMs show little difference for most benchmarks (including the inter-annual variability in the growth rate and seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2), but LPX represents burnt fraction demonstrably more accurately. Benchmarking also identified several weaknesses common to both DGVMs. The benchmarking system provides a quantitative approach for evaluating how adequately processes are represented in a model, identifying errors and biases, tracking improvements in performance through model development, and discriminating among models. Adoption of such a system would do much to improve confidence in terrestrial model predictions of climate change impacts and feedbacks.

Towards cost-sensitive adaptation: when is it worth updating your predictive model?

Our digital universe is rapidly expanding,more and more daily activities are digitally recorded, data arrives in streams, it needs to be analyzed in real time and may evolve over time. In the last decade many adaptive learning algorithms and prediction systems, which can automatically update themselves with the new incoming data, have been developed. The majority of those algorithms focus on improving the predictive performance and assume that model update is always desired as soon as possible and as frequently as possible. In this study we consider potential model update as an investment decision, which, as in the financial markets, should be taken only if a certain return on investment is expected. We introduce and motivate a new research problem for data streams ? cost-sensitive adaptation. We propose a reference framework for analyzing adaptation strategies in terms of costs and benefits. Our framework allows to characterize and decompose the costs of model updates, and to asses and interpret the gains in performance due to model adaptation for a given learning algorithm on a given prediction task. Our proof-of-concept experiment demonstrates how the framework can aid in analyzing and managing adaptation decisions in the chemical industry.

A unified approach to the recognition of complex actions from sequences of zone-crossings

We present a method for the recognition of complex actions. Our method combines automatic learning of simple actions and manual definition of complex actions in a single grammar. Contrary to the general trend in complex action recognition that consists in dividing recognition into two stages, our method performs recognition of simple and complex actions in a unified way. This is performed by encoding simple action HMMs within the stochastic grammar that models complex actions. This unified approach enables a more effective influence of the higher activity layers into the recognition of simple actions which leads to a substantial improvement in the classification of complex actions. We consider the recognition of complex actions based on person transits between areas in the scene. As input, our method receives crossings of tracks along a set of zones which are derived using unsupervised learning of the movement patterns of the objects in the scene. We evaluate our method on a large dataset showing normal, suspicious and threat behaviour on a parking lot. Experiments show an improvement of ~ 30% in the recognition of both high-level scenarios and their composing simple actions with respect to a two-stage approach. Experiments with synthetic noise simulating the most common tracking failures show that our method only experiences a limited decrease in performance when moderate amounts of noise are added.

Fabrication and evaluation of a skutterudite-based thermoelectric module for high-temperature applications

We report a straightforward methodology for the fabrication of high-temperature thermoelectric (TE) modules using commercially available solder alloys and metal barriers. This methodology employs standard and accessible facilities that are simple to implement in any laboratory. A TE module formed by nine n-type Yb x Co4Sb12 and p-type Ce x Fe3CoSb12 state-of-the-art skutterudite material couples was fabricated. The physical properties of the synthesized skutterudites were determined, and the module power output, internal resistance, and thermocycling stability were evaluated in air. At a temperature difference of 365 K, the module provides more than 1.5 W cm−3 volume power density. However, thermocycling showed an increase of the internal module resistance and degradation in performance with the number of cycles when the device is operated at a hot-side temperature higher than 573 K. This may be attributed to oxidation of the skutterudite thermoelements.

The legitimacy of the UN Security Council: evidence from recent General Assembly debates

Existing research on the legitimacy of the UN Security Council is conceptual or theoretical, for the most part, as scholars tend to make legitimacy assessments with reference to objective standards. Whether UN member states perceive the Security Council as legitimate or illegitimate has yet to be investigated systematically; nor do we know whether states care primarily about the Council's compliance with its legal mandate, its procedures, or its effectiveness. To address this gap, our article analyzes evaluative statements made by states in UN General Assembly debates on the Security Council, for the period 1991–2009. In making such statements, states confer legitimacy on the Council or withhold legitimacy from it. We conclude the following: First, the Security Council suffers from a legitimacy deficit because negative evaluations of the Council by UN member states far outweigh positive ones. Nevertheless, the Council does not find itself in an intractable legitimacy crisis because it still enjoys a rudimentary degree of legitimacy. Second, the Council's legitimacy deficit results primarily from states' concerns regarding the body's procedural shortcomings. Misgivings as regards shortcomings in performance rank second. Whether or not the Council complies with its legal mandate has failed to attract much attention at all.

Evaluation of CMIP5 palaeo-simulations to improve climate projections

Structural differences among models account for much of the uncertainty in projected climate changes, at least until the mid-twenty-first century. Recent observations encompass too limited a range of climate variability to provide a robust test of the ability to simulate climate changes. Past climate changes provide a unique opportunity for out-of-sample evaluation of model performance. Palaeo-evaluation has shown that the large-scale changes seen in twenty-first-century projections, including enhanced land–sea temperature contrast, latitudinal amplification, changes in temperature seasonality and scaling of precipitation with temperature, are likely to be realistic. Although models generally simulate changes in large-scale circulation sufficiently well to shift regional climates in the right direction, they often do not predict the correct magnitude of these changes. Differences in performance are only weakly related to modern-day biases or climate sensitivity, and more sophisticated models are not better at simulating climate changes. Although models correctly capture the broad patterns of climate change, improvements are required to produce reliable regional projections.

Rapport från/Report from IEA Task-14 mötet/meeting on solar heating system, Hameln Tyskland/Germany August 1992

Participation as observer at the meeting of Task 14 of IEA's Solar Heating and Cooling Projects held in Hameln, Germany has led to greater understanding of interesting developments underway in several countries. This will be of use during the development of small scale systems suitable for Swedish conditions. A summary of the work carried out by the working groups within Task 14 is given, with emphasis on the Domestic Hot Water group. Experiences of low-flow systems from several countries are related, and the conclusion is drawn that the maximum theoretical possible increase in performance of 20% has not been achieved due to poor heat exchangers and poor stratification in the storage tanks. Positive developments in connecting tubes and pumps is noted. Further participation as observer in Task 14 meetings is desired, and is looked on favourably by the members of the group. Another conclusion is that SERC should carry on with work on Swedish storage tanks, with emphasis on better stratification and heat exchangers, and possible modelling of system components. Finally a German Do-it-Vourself kit is described and judged in comparison with prefabricated models and Swedish Do-it-Yourself kits.

Provningsmetod för integrerade sol-biosystem : Årsverkningsgrad genom korttidsmätning

Test method for integrated solar- biomass systems - Long term prediction trough short term measurementsSP Technical Research Institute of Sweden and SERC, Dalarna University have in cooperation developed a test method for integrated solar and biomass systems. The test method is performed under six days including two summer days, two winter days and two spring/autumn days true to real weather conditions and loads for a single family house. The aim of the test method is to get information about a Combisystem’s annual performance and operation throughout a short term test. Seven different solar Combisystems have been tested within the project together with a pellet boiler without solar collectors. In addition to that a comparative testing has been performed at the two laboratories at SP and at SERC on the same Combisystem. The test method developed within the project has been proved to withstand the aim of the project, which is to be able to compare the performance between the systems. The test method is also suitable for identification of possible operation problems so they can be taken care of and consequently improves the system.The project and the system testing reveal that it is in general favorable to combine biomass pellets with solar heating. Pellet boilers has normally a low performance during the summer period but combined with a solar collector the boiler can be switch off during this period. There are however big differences in performance between the tested. The efficiency of the pellet boiler is highly dependent of the operating conditions and elements like heat losses from the system, system configuration and control strategy have great influence of the performance of the system and the emissions. On the other hand, the performance and the size of the solar collectors have a minor effect on the overall system performance. There is obviously a big potential for improvement of the system´s performance and the developed test method is an essential way to implement this perfection.

Genetic Heteroscedasticity for Domestic Animal Traits

Animal traits differ not only in mean, but also in variation around the mean. For instance, one sire’s daughter group may be very homogeneous, while another sire’s daughters are much more heterogeneous in performance. The difference in residual variance can partially be explained by genetic differences. Models for such genetic heterogeneity of environmental variance include genetic effects for the mean and residual variance, and a correlation between the genetic effects for the mean and residual variance to measure how the residual variance might vary with the mean. The aim of this thesis was to develop a method based on double hierarchical generalized linear models for estimating genetic heteroscedasticity, and to apply it on four traits in two domestic animal species; teat count and litter size in pigs, and milk production and somatic cell count in dairy cows. The method developed is fast and has been implemented in software that is widely used in animal breeding, which makes it convenient to use. It is based on an approximation of double hierarchical generalized linear models by normal distributions. When having repeated observations on individuals or genetic groups, the estimates were found to be unbiased. For the traits studied, the estimated heritability values for the mean and the residual variance, and the genetic coefficients of variation, were found in the usual ranges reported. The genetic correlation between mean and residual variance was estimated for the pig traits only, and was found to be favorable for litter size, but unfavorable for teat count.

Homosocialitetens kraft : hur unga män ”gör” maskulinitet i grupp och individuellt

The power of homosociality: how young men “do” masculinity in groups and individually Using young men’s narratives, about other men, friends, dates and girlfriends, this article discusses the following questions: Can the interpretation – the understanding of young men’s collective presentations of masculinity as a surface that hides a more complex masculinity – undermine how we interpret young men’s talk about and interaction with other men, as well as with women? Can this disassembling understanding have an impact on how young men interpret and relive the interactions with other men, as well as with women? Can this disassembling of the homosocially created masculinity from the more individually created masculinity shape secondary gains for the young men, such as e.g. a more flexible and stretchable arena of responsibility, as well as more flexible space of acting? Thomas Johansson, Professor of Social Work social work, states that if we only focus the homosocially created masculinity, this will reshape a less nuanced picture of young men’s way of doing masculinity (Johansson 2005). Thus, young men’s vulnerability and difficulties remain hidden. However, this disassembling of the homosocially created masculinity from the more individually based doings of masculinity could possibly also give secondary gains, such as e.g. a more flexible and stretchable field of responsibility, as well as more flexible space of acting. This article shows that using a fragmentised and situated masculinity, as a way of understanding the complexity and the ambivalence in young men’s project of doing masculinity, makes evident – on the one hand – the vulnerability in young men’s process of doing masculinity. On the other hand, however, this view also makes it possible for young men to avoid responsibility for their actions. Instead the situated context – e.g. if in a peer group or alone, and what kind of relations the young man has – will be significant for how the act will be interpreted. The empirical material consists of six individual interviews and one group interview with four men. The age span of the participants is 16 to 24 years old. The overall theme for the discussions is heterosexual practice and relations.

Bem comum, razoabilidade prática e direito : a fundamentação do conceito de bem comum na obra de John M. Finnis

Esta dissertação expõe a fundamentação do conceito de bem comum no pensamento de JOHN MITCHELL FINNIS. Este jusfilósofo tem como ponto de partida para sua reflexão uma reinterpretação da ética tomista. Dela interessa o tratamento dado à separação das quatro ordens de conhecimento, particularmente a separação entre ordem natural e prática. A ordem prática de conhecimento tem suas próprias diretrizes. Logo, assim como na ordem natural de conhecimento a primeira diretriz é o princípio da não contradição, na ordem prática o primeiro princípio é o bem é para ser feito e buscado e o mal evitado. Estes postulados não são imperativos e nem indicativos, mas diretivos; e, no caso da ordem prática, uma diretiva para ação. A implicação epistemológica está em que a fundamentação imediata do agir humano não reside na natureza humana, mas na percepção prática de bens a serem realizados e dos males a serem evitados. Há um número determinado de bens humanos básicos, que são as razões primeiras para o agir humano. Eles são objetivos, incomensuráveis, auto-evidentes e pré-morais. O rol que FINNIS propõe é vida, conhecimento, matrimônio, excelência na realização, sociabilidade/amizade, razoabilidade prática e ‘religião’. O conteúdo da moral resulta destes bens humanos e tem como princípio supremo toda a escolha deve favorecer e respeitar o bem humano integral. Além de sintetizar a correção para o agir individual, a moral também fundamenta e demanda um agir social correto, que está expresso no conceito de bem comum. FINNIS define bem comum nos seguintes termos: um conjunto de condições que tornam aptos os membros de uma comunidade a alcançar por si mesmos objetivos razoáveis, ou realizar razoavelmente por si mesmos o(s) valor(es) pelos quais eles têm razão em colaborar uns com os outros (positiva e/ou negativamente) em uma comunidade. O conteúdo específico do bem comum da comunidade política é constituído pela justiça. O direito é o objeto da justiça e, assim, meio pelo qual o Estado a realiza e, por conseqüência, o bem comum.

Capital Asset Price Model (CAPM) : uma aplicação ao mercado brasileiro de ações

Este trabalho tem por objetivo apresentar a fundamentação teórica e efetuar uma aplicação prática de uma das mais importantes descobertas no campo das finanças: o modelo de precificação de ativos de capital padrão, denominado de Capital Asset Price Model (CAPM). Na realização da aplicação prática, comparou-se a performance entre os retornos dos investimentos exigidos pelo referido modelo e os realmente obtidos. Foram analisadas cinco ações com a maior participação relativa na carteira teórica do Ibovespa e com retornos publicados de junho de 1998 a maio de 2001. Os dados foram obtidos da Economática da UFRGS e testados utilizando-se o Teste-t (duas amostras em par para médias) na ferramenta MS Excel. Os resultados foram tabelados e analisados, de onde se concluiu que, estatisticamente, com índice de confiança de 95%, não houve diferença de performance entre os retornos esperados e os realmente obtidos dos ativos objeto desta dissertação, no período estudado.

Dietas de proteína reduzida e de diferentes digestabilidades suplementadas com aminoácidos sintéticos para frangos de corte

O conceito de proteína ideal adquiriu grande importância, devido à necessidade de maximizar o uso dos aminoácidos para a deposição de proteína corporal. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a formulação de rações com teor reduzido de PB suplementadas com aminoácidos sintéticos e de diferentes digestibilidades. Foram realizados dois experimentos (exp) utilizando frangos de corte machos das linhagens Ross (exp I) e Cobb (exp 11),no período de 3 a 6 semanas. No exp I foram testadas rações à base de milho e farelo de soja com quatro níveis de PB (20,8; 19,7; 18,6 e 17,5%). No exp 11,além dos tratamentos com os mesmos níveis de PB do exp I e digestibilidade padrão (DP), compostos principalmente por milho e farelo de soja, também foram testados dois tratamentos com dietas contendo 20,8 e 17,5% de PB e alta digestibilidade (AD), à base de milho, farelo de soja, amido de milho e proteína isolada de soja. Nos dois experimentos o ganho de peso, a conversão alimentar e o rendimento de cortes nobres foram negativamente afetados pela redução da PB dietética (P<0,05). Entretanto, as respostas de digestibilidade da matéria seca e digestibilidade da matéria orgânica, a retenção relativa de PB e a energia metabolizável aparente corrigida para nitrogênio foram superiores nas aves alimentadas com as dietas de baixos níveis de PB (P<0,05), mas não suficientes para compensar as perdas no desempenho. Não houve efeito da dieta AD sobre as respostas avaliadas, talvez em função das características físicas dos ingredientes utilizados.

Fatores responsáveis pela mudança no desempenho da indústria das análises clínicas no Brasil

Os laboratórios de análises clínicas estão constantemente expostos a mudanças que podem ser causadas por vários fatores, sejam eles econômicos ou não. Hoje os laboratórios clínicos enfrentam diversos desafios, tais como a pressão para reduzir custos e melhorar a qualidade do serviço, enquanto enfrenta a necessidade de alcançar níveis cada vez maior de automação e qualidade técnica. Estar ciente de tais desafios e reagindo a eles em tempo suficiente, de modo a garantir a sua sobrevivência do negócio é o principal desafio dos gestores de laboratórios, que estão melhor preparados tecnicamente do que gerencialmente. A necessidade urgente de uma nova estratégia nesta áerea é uma realidade. Este estudo visou o levantamento dos fatores que foram responsáveis pela mudança no desempenho em laboratórios brasileiros. Levantamos três fatores importantes definidos por tipo de carteira, automação com sistema LIS e terceirização, que foram apresentados por 15 indicadores não-financeiros. Descobrimos que apenas um dos fatores mostrou significância, que foi a automação com sistema LIS. Assim, nossa pesquisa mostra que este fator é o principal agente de mudança do desempenho em laboratórios de análises clínicas no Brasil.