Risk assessment in life-cycle costing for road asset management

Queensland Department of Main Roads, Australia, spends approximately A$ 1 billion annually for road infrastructure asset management. To effectively manage road infrastructure, firstly road agencies not only need to optimise the expenditure for data collection, but at the same time, not jeopardise the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates could be accurately estimated. And finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must provide a certain degree of reliability. This paper presents the results of case studies in using the probability-based method for an integrated approach (i.e. assessing optimal costs of pavement strength data collection; calibrating deterioration prediction models that suit local condition and assessing risk-adjusted budget estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation for assessing life-cycle budget estimates). The probability concept is opening the path to having the means to predict life-cycle maintenance and rehabilitation budget estimates that have a known probability of success (e.g. produce budget estimates for a project life-cycle cost with 5% probability of exceeding). The paper also presents a conceptual decision-making framework in the form of risk mapping in which the life-cycle budget/cost investment could be considered in conjunction with social, environmental and political issues.

Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

Road Asset Management Investment

Australias civil infrastructure assets of roads, bridges, railways, buildings and other structures are worth billions of dollars. To effectively manage road infrastructures, road agencies firstly need to optimise the expenditure for data collection whilst not jeopardising the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates can be accurately calculated. Finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must be reasonably reliable.

Redefining life cycle for a building sustainability assessment framework

Understanding the differences between the temporal and physical aspects of the building life cycle is an essential ingredient in the development of Building Environmental Assessment (BEA) tools. This paper illustrates a theoretical Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) framework aligning temporal decision-making with that of material flows over building development phases. It was derived during development of a prototype commercial building design tool that was based on a 3-D CAD information and communications technology (ICT) platform and LCA software. The framework aligns stakeholder BEA needs and the decision-making process against characteristics of leading green building tools. The paper explores related integration of BEA tool development applications on such ICT platforms. Key framework modules are depicted and practical examples for BEA are provided for: • Definition of investment and service goals at project initiation; • Design integrated to avoid overlaps/confusion over the project life cycle; • Detailing the supply chain considering building life cycle impacts; • Delivery of quality metrics for occupancy post-construction/handover; • Deconstruction profiling at end of life to facilitate recovery.

Web-based public participatory GIS

Decision support systems (DSS) have evolved rapidly during the last decade from stand alone or limited networked solutions to online participatory solutions. One of the major enablers of this change is the fastest growing areas of geographical information system (GIS) technology development that relates to the use of the Internet as a means to access, display, and analyze geospatial data remotely. World-wide many federal, state, and particularly local governments are designing to facilitate data sharing using interactive Internet map servers. This new generation DSS or planning support systems (PSS), interactive Internet map server, is the solution for delivering dynamic maps and GIS data and services via the world-wide Web, and providing public participatory GIS (PPGIS) opportunities to a wider community (Carver, 2001; Jankowski & Nyerges, 2001). It provides a highly scalable framework for GIS Web publishing, Web-based public participatory GIS (WPPGIS), which meets the needs of corporate intranets and demands of worldwide Internet access (Craig, 2002). The establishment of WPPGIS provides spatial data access through a support centre or a GIS portal to facilitate efficient access to and sharing of related geospatial data (Yigitcanlar, Baum, & Stimson, 2003). As more and more public and private entities adopt WPPGIS technology, the importance and complexity of facilitating geospatial data sharing is growing rapidly (Carver, 2003). Therefore, this article focuses on the online public participation dimension of the GIS technology. The article provides an overview of recent literature on GIS and WPPGIS, and includes a discussion on the potential use of these technologies in providing a democratic platform for the public in decision-making.

Relative entropy rate based multiple hidden Markov Model Approximation

This paper proposes a novel relative entropy rate (RER) based approach for multiple HMM (MHMM) approximation of a class of discrete-time uncertain processes. Under different uncertainty assumptions, the model design problem is posed either as a min-max optimisation problem or stochastic minimisation problem on the RER between joint laws describing the state and output processes (rather than the more usual RER between output processes). A suitable filter is proposed for which performance results are established which bound conditional mean estimation performance and show that estimation performance improves as the RER is reduced. These filter consistency and convergence bounds are the first results characterising multiple HMM approximation performance and suggest that joint RER concepts provide a useful model selection criteria. The proposed model design process and MHMM filter are demonstrated on an important image processing dim-target detection problem.

Completing the jigsaw : ESL and EFL undergraduate views on interactive peer-based learning

English as a Second Language (ESL) and English as a Foreign Language (EFL) students often face incongruence with Western teaching methods and learning expectations. The aim of this paper is to explore the potential for interactive peer-based learning to engage ESL and EFL language learners provide authentic communication experiences and accelerate learning through two case studies in different contexts. A study was undertaken to investigate student ‘voice’ (Rudduck, 1999, 2005; Rudduck & Flutter, 2004) during an intervention of communicative language teaching using peer-based learning strategies. This article describes unique similarities and subtle differences between ESL and EFL undergraduate learning in two different cultural contexts, using a 'stages of learning matrix' teaching tool to encourage civic skills and self-efficacy. It also suggests ways for teachers to improve on inconsistencies in group-based learning in order to promote more inclusive and congruent learning experiences for English language learners.

Heavy truck suspension optimization based on modified skyhook damping control

This paper presents a multi-objective optimization strategy for heavy truck suspension systems based on modified skyhook damping (MSD) control, which improves ride comfort and road-friendliness simultaneously. A four-axle heavy truck-road coupling system model was established using functional virtual prototype technology; the model was then validated through a ride comfort test. As the mechanical properties and time lag of dampers were taken into account, MSD control of active and semi-active dampers was implemented using Matlab/Simulink. Through co-simulations with Adams and Matlab, the effects of passive, semi-active MSD control, and active MSD control were analyzed and compared; thus, control parameters which afforded the best integrated performance were chosen. Simulation results indicated that MSD control improves a truck’s ride comfort and roadfriendliness, while the semi-active MSD control damper obtains road-friendliness comparable to the active MSD control damper.

Data mining on prices of highway project main material based on WEB

The management of main material prices of provincial highway project quota has problems of lag and blindness. Framework of provincial highway project quota data MIS and main material price data warehouse were established based on WEB firstly. Then concrete processes of provincial highway project main material prices were brought forward based on BP neural network algorithmic. After that standard BP algorithmic, additional momentum modify BP network algorithmic, self-adaptive study speed improved BP network algorithmic were compared in predicting highway project main prices. The result indicated that it is feasible to predict highway main material prices using BP NN, and using self-adaptive study speed improved BP network algorithmic is the relatively best one.

A study of Chinese private passenger cars based on BP neural network

This study employs BP neural network to simulate the development of Chinese private passenger cars. Considering the uncertain and complex environment for the development of private passenger cars, indicators of economy, population, price, infrastructure, income, energy and some other fields which have major impacts on it are selected at first. The network is proved to be operable to simulate the progress of chinese private passenger cars after modeling, training and generalization test. Based on the BP neural network model, sensitivity analysis of each indicator is carried on and shows that the sensitivity coefficients of fuel price change suddenly. This special phenomenon reveals that the development of Chinese private passenger cars may be seriously affected by the recent high fuel price. This finding is also consistent with facts and figures