Towards a molecular epidemiology of alcohol dependence analysing the interplay of genetic and environmental risk factors

Background Progress in identifying genetic factors protective against alcohol dependence (AlcD) requires a paradigm shift in psychiatric epidemiology. Aims To integrate analysis of research into the genetics of alcoholism. Method Data from prospective questionnaire and interview surveys of the Australian twin panel, and from a subsample who underwent alcohol challenge, were analysed. Results In men, effects of alcohol dehydrogenase ADH2*1/*2 genotype or high alcohol sensitivity (risk-decreasing), and of history of childhood conduct disorder, or having monozygotic co-twin or twin sister with AlcD (risk-increasing) were significant and comparable in magnitude. Religious affiliation (Anglican versus other) was associated with the ADH2 genotype, but did not explain the associations with AlcD symptoms. No protective effect of the ADH2*1/*2 genotype was observed in women. Conclusions The early onset and strong familial aggregation of AlcD, and opportunity for within-family tests of genetic association to avoid confounding effects, make epidemiological family studies of adolescents and young adults and their families a priority.

The influence of genetic and environmental factors in estimations of current body size, desired body size, and body dissatisfaction

The objective was to investigate the genetic epidemiology of figural stimuli. Standard figural stimuli were available from 5,325 complete twin pairs: 1,751 (32.9%) were monozygotic females, 1,068 (20.1%) were dizygotic females, 752 (14.1%) were monozygotic males, 495 (9.3%) were dizygotic males, and 1,259 (23.6%) were dizygotic male-female pairs. Univariate twin analyses were used to examine the influences on the individual variation in current body size and ideal body size. These data were analysed separately for men and women in each of five age groups. A factorial analysis of variance, with polychoric correlations between twin pairs as the dependent variable, and age, sex, zygosity, and the three interaction terms (age x sex, age x zygosity, sex x zygosity) as independent variables, was used to examine trends across the whole data set. Results showed genetic influences had the largest impact on the individual variation in current body size measures, whereas non-shared environmental influences were associated with the majority of individual variation in ideal body size. There was a significant main effect of zygosity (heritability) in predicting polychoric correlations for current body size and body dissatisfaction. There was a significant main effect of gender and zygosity in predicting ideal body size, with a gender x zygosity interaction. In common with BMI, heritability is important in influencing the estimation of current body size. Selection of desired body size for both men and women is more strongly influenced by environmental factors.

Genetic and non-genetic factors affecting birth-weight and adult body mass index

Birthweight affects neonatal mortality and morbidity and has been used as a marker of foetal undernutrition in studies of prenatal effects on adult characteristics. It is potentially influenced by genetic and environmental influences on the mother, and effects of foetal genotype, which is partially derived from the maternal genotype. Interpretations of variation in birthweight and associated characteristics as being due to prenatal environment ignore other possible modes of materno-foetal transmission. Subjects were adult twins recruited through the Australian Twin Registry, aged 17 to 87 years, and the sample comprised 1820 men and 4048 women. Twins reported their own birthweight as part of a health questionnaire. Body Mass Index (BMI) was calculated from self-reports of height and weight. Correlations between co-twins' birthweights were high for both monozygotic (r = 0.77) and dizygotic (r = 0.67) pairs, leading to substantial estimates of shared environmental effects (56% of variance) with significant additive genetic (23%) and non-shared environmental (21%) components. Adult BMI was mainly influenced by genetic factors, both additive (36% of variance) and nonadditive (35%). The correlation between birthweight and BMI was positive, in that heavier babies became on average more obese adults. A bivariate model of birthweight and adult BMI showed significant positive genetic (rg = 0.16, p = 0.005) and environmental (re = 0.08, p = 0.000011) correlations. Intra-uterine environmental or perinatal influences shared by cotwins exercise a strong influence on birthweight, but the factors which affect both birthweight and adult BMI are partly genetic and partly non-shared environmental.

An adaptive neural-wavelet model for short term load forecasting

This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Diet, lifestyle and the risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in women

Background Previous studies have examined individual dietary and lifestyle factors in relation to type 2 diabetes, but the combined effects of these factors are largely unknown. Methods We followed 84,941 female nurses from 1980 to 1996; these women were free of diagnosed cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and cancer at base line. Information about their diet and lifestyle was updated periodically. A low-risk group was defined according to a combination of five variables: a body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) of less than 25; a diet high in cereal fiber and polyunsaturated fat and low in trans fat and glycemic load (which reflects the effect of diet on the blood glucose level); engagement in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity for at least half an hour per day; no current smoking; and the consumption of an average of at least half a drink of an alcoholic beverage per day. Results During 16 years of follow-up, we documented 3300 new cases of type 2 diabetes. Overweight or obesity was the single most important predictor of diabetes. Lack of exercise, a poor diet, current smoking, and abstinence from alcohol use were all associated with a significantly increased risk of diabetes, even after adjustment for the body-mass index. As compared with the rest of the cohort, women in the low-risk group (3.4 percent of the women) had a relative risk of diabetes of 0.09 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.05 to 0.17). A total of 91 percent of the cases of diabetes in this cohort (95 percent confidence interval, 83 to 95 percent) could be attributed to habits and forms of behavior that did not conform to the low-risk pattern. Conclusions Our findings support the hypothesis that the majority of cases of type 2 diabetes could be prevented by the adoption of a healthier lifestyle.

Cancer culture: Epidemics, human behaviour and the dubious search for new risk factors

The rise of melanoma and the almost complete decline of stomach cancer clearly reflect disturbances of human culture during the 20th century. Environmental factors play a dominant role in the epidemiology of melanoma and many other malignancies.

Asymptomatic primary Epstein-Barr virus infection occurs in the absence of blood T-cell repertoire perturbations despite high levels of systemic viral load

Primary infection with the human herpesvirus, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), may result in subclinical seroconversion or may appear as infectious mononucleosis (IM), a lymphoproliferative disease of variable severity. Why primary infection manifests differently between patients is unknown, and, given the difficulties in identifying donors undergoing silent seroconversion, little information has been reported. However, a longstanding assumption has been held that IM represents an exaggerated form of the virologic and immunologic events of asymptomatic infection. T-cell receptor (TCR) repertoires of a unique cohort of subclinically infected patients undergoing silent infection were studied, and the results highlight a fundamental difference between the 2 forms of infection. In contrast to the massive T-cell expansions mobilized during the acute symptomatic phase of IM, asymptomatic donors largely maintain homeostatic T-cell control and peripheral blood repertoire diversity. This disparity cannot simply be linked to severity or spread of the infection because high levels of EBV DNA were found in the blood from both types of acute infection. The results suggest that large expansions of T cells within the blood during IM may not always be associated with the control of primary EBV infection and that they may represent an overreaction that exacerbates disease. (C) 2001 by The American Society of Hematology.

The expression of fibroblast growth factors and their receptors in the embryonic and neonatal mouse inner ear

Four different fibroblast growth factor receptors (FGFR) are known, three of which have splice variants (known as the b and c variants) in the FGF-binding domain, to give different patterns of sensitivity to the different FGFs. The expression of the b and c variants of the FGF receptors. together with the expression of the ligands FGF1. FGF2, FGF3, FGF7, FGF8b and FGF8c, was determined by quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction in developing whole mouse inner ears, and in dissected components of the postnatal mouse inner ear. At embryonic age (E)10.5 days, when the otocyst is a simple closed sac, the receptor most heavily expressed was FGFR2b, relative to the postnatal day 0 level. Over the period E10.5-E12.5. during which the structures of the inner ear start to form, the expression of the different FGF receptors increased 10(2)-10(4) fold per unit of tissue, and there was a gradual switch towards expression of the 'c' splice variants of FGFR2 and FGFR3 rather than the 'b' variants. At E10.5, the ligands most heavily expressed, relative to the postnatal day 0 level, were FGF3, FGF8b and FGF8c. In the postnatal inner eat. the patterns of expression of receptors and ligands tended to be correlated, such that receptor variants were expressed in the same regions as the ligands that are known to activate them effectively. The neural/sensory region expressed high levels of FGFR3c, and high levels of the ligand FGF8b. The same area also expressed high levels of FGFR1b and FGFR2b, and high levels of FGF3. The lateral wall of the cochlea (including the stria vascularis and the spiral ligament) expressed high levels of FGFR1c and FGF1. 11 is suggested that the different FGF receptors and ligands are expressed in a spatially coordinated pattern to selectively program cochlear development. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Briefing: Factored material properties and limit state loads-unlikely extreme or impossible pretense

In the limit state design (LSD) method each design criterion is formally stated and assessed using a performance function. The performance function defines the relationship between the design parameters and the design criterion. In practice, LSD involves factoring up loads and factoring down calculated strengths and material parameters. This provides a convenient way to carry out routine probabilistic-based design. The factors are statistically calculated to produce a design with an acceptably low probability of failure. Hence the ultimate load and the design material properties are mathematical concepts that have no physical interpretation. They may be physically impossible. Similarly, the appropriate analysis model is also defined by the performance function and may not describe the real behaviour at the perceived physical equivalent limit condition. These points must be understood to avoid confusion in the discussion and application of partial factor LSD methods.

Effect of hemochromatosis genotype and lifestyle factors on iron and red cell indices in a community population

Background: Heterozygotes for the C282Y mutation of the HFE gene may have altered hematology indices and higher iron stores than wild-type subjects. Methods: We performed a cross-sectional analysis of 1488 females and 1522 males 20-79 years of age drawn from the Busselton (Australia) population study to assess the effects of HFE genotype, age, gender, and lifestyle on serum iron and hematology indices. Results: Male C282Y heterozygotes had increased transferrin saturation compared with the wild-type genotype. Neither male nor female heterozygotes had significantly increased ferritin values compared with the wild-type genotype. Younger (20-29 years) wild-type males, but not heterozygous males, had significantly lower ferritin values than wild-type males in the older age groups. Compound heterozygous subjects had increased means for serum iron, transferrin saturation, corpuscular volume, and corpuscular hemoglobin compared with the wild-type genotype, and the males also had increased ferritin values (medians 323 vs 177 mug/L; P = 0.003). In both male and female wild-type subjects, an increased body mass index was associated with decreased serum iron and transferrin saturation and increased ferritin values. There was a significant increase in ferritin concentrations in both genders with increasing frequency of red meat consumption above a baseline of 1-2 times per week and alcohol intakes >10 g/day. Conclusions: Male C282Y heterozygotes had significantly increased transferrin saturation values. Compound heterozygous (C282Y/H63D) subjects formed a separate category of C282Y heterozygotes in whom both iron and red cell indices were significantly increased compared with the wild-type genotype. (C) 2001 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.