Combining opinions for use in Bayesian networks: A measurement error approach

Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical probabilistic models used for reasoning under uncertainty. These models are becoming increasing popular in a range of fields including ecology, computational biology, medical diagnosis, and forensics. In most of these cases, the BNs are quantified using information from experts, or from user opinions. An interest therefore lies in the way in which multiple opinions can be represented and used in a BN. This paper proposes the use of a measurement error model to combine opinions for use in the quantification of a BN. The multiple opinions are treated as a realisation of measurement error and the model uses the posterior probabilities ascribed to each node in the BN which are computed from the prior information given by each expert. The proposed model addresses the issues associated with current methods of combining opinions such as the absence of a coherent probability model, the lack of the conditional independence structure of the BN being maintained, and the provision of only a point estimate for the consensus. The proposed model is applied an existing Bayesian Network and performed well when compared to existing methods of combining opinions.

Old mastheads and new media : newspapers striving to adapt in Australia and South-east Asia

As a key element in their response to new media forcing transformations in mass media and media use, newspapers have deployed various strategies to not only establish online and mobile products, and develop healthy business plans, but to set out to be dominant portals. Their response to change was the subject of an early investigation by one of the present authors (Keshvani 2000). That was part of a set of short studies inquiring into what impact new software applications and digital convergence might have on journalism practice (Tickle and Keshvani 2000), and also looking for demonstrations of the way that innovations, technologies and protocols then under development might produce a “wireless, streamlined electronic news production process (Tickle and Keshvani 2001).” The newspaper study compared the online products of The Age in Melbourne and the Straits Times in Singapore. It provided an audit of the Singapore and Australia Information and Communications Technology (ICT) climate concentrating on the state of development of carrier networks, as a determining factor in the potential strength of the two services with their respective markets. In the outcome, contrary to initial expectations, the early cable roll-out and extensive ‘wiring’ of the city in Singapore had not produced a level of uptake of Internet services as strong as that achieved in Melbourne by more ad hoc and varied strategies. By interpretation, while news websites and online content were at an early stage of development everywhere, and much the same as one another, no determining structural imbalance existed to separate these leading media participants in Australia and South-east Asia. The present research revisits that situation, by again studying the online editions of the two large newspapers in the original study, and one other, The Courier Mail, (recognising the diversification of types of product in this field, by including it as a representative of Newscorp, now a major participant). The inquiry works through the principle of comparison. It is an exercise in qualitative, empirical research that establishes a comparison between the situation in 2000 as described in the earlier work, and the situation in 2014, after a decade of intense development in digital technology affecting the media industries. It is in that sense a follow-up study on the earlier work, although this time giving emphasis to content and style of the actual products as experienced by their users. It compares the online and print editions of each of these three newspapers; then the three mastheads as print and online entities, among themselves; and finally it compares one against the other two, as representing a South-east Asian model and Australian models. This exercise is accompanied by a review of literature on the developments in ICT affecting media production and media organisations, to establish the changed context. The new study of the online editions is conducted as a systematic appraisal of the first level, or principal screens, of the three publications, over the course of six days (10-15.2.14 inclusive). For this, categories for analysis were made, through conducting a preliminary examination of the products over three days in the week before. That process identified significant elements of media production, such as: variegated sourcing of materials; randomness in the presentation of items; differential production values among media platforms considered, whether text, video or stills images; the occasional repurposing and repackaging of top news stories of the day and the presence of standard news values – once again drawn out of the trial ‘bundle’ of journalistic items. Reduced in this way the online artefacts become comparable with the companion print editions from the same days. The categories devised and then used in the appraisal of the online products have been adapted to print, to give the closest match of sets of variables. This device, to study the two sets of publications on like standards -- essentially production values and news values—has enabled the comparisons to be made. This comparing of the online and print editions of each of the three publications was set up as up the first step in the investigation. In recognition of the nature of the artefacts, as ones that carry very diverse information by subject and level of depth, and involve heavy creative investment in the formulation and presentation of the information; the assessment also includes an open section for interpreting and commenting on main points of comparison. This takes the form of a field for text, for the insertion of notes, in the table employed for summarising the features of each product, for each day. When the sets of comparisons as outlined above are noted, the process then becomes interpretative, guided by the notion of change. In the context of changing media technology and publication processes, what substantive alterations have taken place, in the overall effort of news organisations in the print and online fields since 2001; and in their print and online products separately? Have they diverged or continued along similar lines? The remaining task is to begin to make inferences from that. Will the examination of findings enforce the proposition that a review of the earlier study, and a forensic review of new models, does provide evidence of the character and content of change --especially change in journalistic products and practice? Will it permit an authoritative description on of the essentials of such change in products and practice? Will it permit generalisation, and provide a reliable base for discussion of the implications of change, and future prospects? Preliminary observations suggest a more dynamic and diversified product has been developed in Singapore, well themed, obviously sustained by public commitment and habituation to diversified online and mobile media services. The Australian products suggest a concentrated corporate and journalistic effort and deployment of resources, with a strong market focus, but less settled and ordered, and showing signs of limitations imposed by the delay in establishing a uniform, large broadband network. The scope of the study is limited. It is intended to test, and take advantage of the original study as evidentiary material from the early days of newspaper companies’ experimentation with online formats. Both are small studies. The key opportunity for discovery lies in the ‘time capsule’ factor; the availability of well-gathered and processed information on major newspaper company production, at the threshold of a transformational decade of change in their industry. The comparison stands to identify key changes. It should also be useful as a reference for further inquiries of the same kind that might be made, and for monitoring of the situation in regard to newspaper portals on line, into the future.

In a perfect world it would be great if they didn't exist : how Australians experience payday loans

In the last few decades payday loans have mushroomed in many developed countries. The arguments for and against an industry which provides small, short-term loans at very high interest rates have also blossomed. This article presents findings from an Australian study to contribute to the international policy and practice debate about a sector which orients to those on a low income. At the heart of this debate lies a conundrum: Borrowing from payday lenders exacerbates poverty, yet many low-income households rely on these loans. We argue that the key problem is the restricted framework within which the debate currently oscillates.

Analyzing causes for reworks in construction projects in China

Although rework is a common phenomenon in the Chinese construction industry and significantly affects project success, the reasons for rework remain largely unknown and most construction companies are unable to manage the issue effectively. To investigate the causes of rework in construction projects, a total of 39 causes were first identified through a comprehensive literature review and semi-structured interviews with 13 experienced construction professionals in China. A questionnaire survey was further conducted to prioritize these causes, in which unclear project process management, poor quality of construction technology, and the use of poor construction materials rank the highest. Finally, a factor analysis revealed 11 major underlying dimensions of these causes, relating to design management, communication management, field management, project scope management, project process management, active rework, project plan changes, subcontractor management, contract management, owner capability, and the external environment. The contribution of this work lies in its examination of the underlying causes of rework perceived by construction professionals in the world’s largest developing country, which is characterized by its unique economic and social systems. In particular, newly identified causes of contract management, active rework, and scope management help expand existing knowledge of the underlying causes of rework for the global construction community.

Mechanical filtering for narrow-band hearing in the weta

This paper constitutes a major attempt to associate tympanic deflections with the mechanoreceptor organ location in an acoustic insect. The New Zealand tree weta (Hemideina thoracica) has tympanal ears located on each of the prothoracic tibiae. The tympana exhibit a sclerotized oval plate, membranous processes bulging out from the tibial cuticle and many loosely suspended ripples. We used microscanning laser Doppler vibrometry to determine how such a tympanal membrane vibrates in response to sound and whether the sclerotized region plays a role in hearing. The tympanum displays a single resonance at the calling frequency of the male, an unusual example of an insect tympana acting as a narrow bandpass filter. Both tympana resonate in phase with the stimulus and with each other. Histological sections show that the tympanal area is divided into two distinct regions, as in other ensiferans. An oval plate lies in the middle of a thickened region and is surrounded by a transparent and uniformly thin region. It is hinged dorsally to the tympanal rim and thus resembles the model of a ‘hinged flap’. The thickened region appears to act as a damping mass on the oscillation of the thin region, and vibration displacement is reduced in this area. The thinner area vibrates with higher amplitude, inducing mechanical pressure on the dorsal area adjacent to the crista acustica. We present a new model showing how the thickened region might confer a mechanical gain onto the activation of the crista acustica sensory neurons during the sound-induced oscillations.

Multiple iterations : mapping the trace

This paper explores the concept that individual dancers leave traces in a choreographer’s body of work and similarly, that dancers carry forward residue of embodied choreographies into other working processes. This presentation will be grounded in a study of the multiple iterations of a programme of solo works commissioned in 2008 from choreographers John Jasperse, Jodi Melnick, Liz Roche and Rosemary Butcher and danced by the author. This includes an exploration of the development by John Jasperse of themes from his solo into the pieces PURE (2008) and Truth, Revised Histories, Wishful Thinking and Flat Out Lies (2009); an adaptation of the solo Business of the Bloom by Jodi Melnick in 2008 and a further adaptation of Business of the Bloom by this author in 2012. It will map some of the developments that occurred through a number of further performances over five years of the solo Shared Material on Dying by Liz Roche and the working process of the (uncompleted) solo Episodes of Flight by Rosemary Butcher. The purpose is to reflect back on authorship in dance, an art form in which lineages of influence can often be clearly observed. Normally, once a choreographic work is created and performed, it is archived through video recording, notation and/or reviews. The dancer is no longer called upon to represent the dance piece within the archive and thus her/his lived presence and experiential perspective disappears. The author will draw on the different traces still inhabiting her body as pathways towards understanding how choreographic movement circulates beyond this moment of performance. This will include the interrogation of ownership of choreographic movement, as once it becomes integrated in the body of the dancer, who owns the dance? Furthermore, certain dancers, through their individual physical characteristics and moving identities, can deeply influence the formation of choreographic signatures, a proposition that challenges the sole authorship role of the choreographer in dance production. This paper will be delivered in a presentation format that will bleed into movement demonstrations alongside video footage of the works and auto-ethnographic accounts of dancing experience. A further source of knowledge will be drawn from extracts of interviews with other dancers including Sara Rudner, Rebecca Hilton and Catherine Bennett.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to low fruit and vegetable intake in South Africa in 2000

Objectives To estimate the burden of disease attributed to low fruit and vegetable intake by sex and age group in South Africa for the year 2000. Design The analysis follows the World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology. Populationattributable fractions were calculated from South African prevalence data from dietary surveys and applied to the revised South African burden of disease estimates for 2000. A theoretical maximum distribution of 600 g per day for fruit and vegetable intake was chosen. Monte Carlo simulationmodelling techniques were used for uncertainty analysis. Setting South Africa. Subjects Adults ≥ 15 years. Outcome measures Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), from ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, lung cancer, gastric cancer, colorectal cancer and oesophageal cancer. Results Low fruit and vegetable intake accounted for 3.2% of total deaths and 1.1% of the 16.2 million attributable DALYs. For both males and females the largest proportion of total years of healthy life lost attributed to low fruit and vegetable intake was for ischaemic heart disease (60.6% and 52.2%, respectively). Ischaemic stroke accounted for 17.8% of attributable DALYs for males and 32.7% for females. For the related cancers, the leading attributable DALYs for men and women were oesophageal cancer (9.8% and 7.0%, respectively) and lung cancer (7.8% and 4.7%, respectively). Conclusions A high intake of fruit and vegetables can make a significant contribution to decreasing mortality from certain diseases. The challenge lies in creating the environment that facilitates changes in dietary habits such as the increased intake of fruit and vegetables.

Mapping geographical knowledge and skills needed for pre-service teachers in teacher education

In Australia, for more than two decades, a ‘social science’ integrated framework was the favoured approach for delivering subjects such as history and geography. However, such interdisciplinary approaches have continued to attract criticism from various parts of the academic and public spheres and since 2009, a return to teaching the disciplines has been heralded as the ‘new’ way forward. Using discourse analysis techniques associated with Foucauldian archaeology, the purpose of this paper is to examine the Australian Curriculum: Geography document to ascertain the discourses necessary for pre-service teachers to enact effective teaching of geography in a primary setting. Then, based on pre-service teachers’ online survey responses, the paper investigates if such future teachers have the knowledge and skills to interpret, deliver and enact the new geography curriculum in primary classrooms. Finally, as teacher educators, our interest lies in preparing pre-service teachers effectively for the classroom so the findings are used to inform the content of a teacher education course for pre-service primary teachers.

Recreational needs and service performance expectations

The theoretical contribution of this study lies with its focus on subjective experiencing, that is, the emotional convergence between feeling states, and perceptions of servicescapes and holiday activities. An empirical study models the impact of recreational needs on the perceived importance of destination attributes and intentions to participate in activities. A sample of prospective tourists was asked to indicate how important they considered servicescape elements to be in their general holiday planning. They were also asked to report on their emotional state (orientation) as a proxy for their needs for recreation, and to state their intention and likely involvement with holiday activities. Results suggest that those with high recreational needs (self-reflexive and inward-looking) regard elements of tourism servicescapes as significantly more important than those without (who are outward-looking and energetic), as well as show significant variations in their inclinations to be active and explorative at destinations. Rather, those with higher recreational needs as measured by combinations of lack of energy, self-confidence, and physiological well-being look for creature comfort, coziness, and familiarity, in other words, for things they already know and have experienced before. Subjective experiencing and service performance evaluations are thereby suggested to be influenced by emotional states. These states may also impact tourists' recognition of destination uniqueness as a major component of a destination's competitive advantage that cannot easily be copied. As a consequence, it may be worth reconsidering the role of recreation in tourism service design. Turning an inwardlooking focus bent on recreation to an outward-looking one interested in discovery would enable more tourists to more fully experience the destination before they leave.

Understanding carers' intention for their child to walk to school : further application of the theory of reasoned action

One quarter of Australian children are overweight or obese (ABS, 2010), putting them at increased risk of physical and psychological health problems (Reilly et al., 2003). Overweight and obesity in childhood tends to persist into adulthood and is associated with premature death and morbidity (Reilly & Kelly, 2011). Increases in Australian children’s weight have coincided with declines in active transportation, such as walking, to school (Salmon et al., 2005). Investigating the factors which influence walking to school is therefore important, particularly since walking to school is a low cost and effective means of reducing excess weight (Rosenberg et al., 2006) that can be easily integrated into daily routine (Brophy et al., 2011). While research in this area has expanded (e.g., Brophy et al., 2011; Giles-Corti et al., 2010), it is largely atheoretical (exceptions Napier et al., 2011). This is an important gap from a social marketing perspective given the use of theory lies at the foundation of the framework (NSMC, 2006) and a continued lack of theory use is observed (Luca & Suggs, 2013). The aim of this paper is to empirically examine a widely adopted theory, the deconstructed Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) (Fishbein & Azjen, 1975), to understand the relative importance of attitude and subjective norms in determining intentions to increase walk to school behaviour.

Embracing humanity in the face of death: Why do existential concerns moderate ingroup humanization?

People humanize their ingroup to address existential concerns about their mortality, but the reasons why they do so remain ambiguous. One explanation is that people humanize their ingroup to bolster their social identity in the face of their mortality. Alternatively, people might be motivated to see their ingroup as more uniquely human (UH) to distance themselves from their corporeal “animal” nature. These explanations were tested in Australia, where social identity is tied less to UH and more to human nature (HN) which does not distinguish humans from animals. Australians attributed more HN traits to the ingroup when mortality was salient, while the attribution of UH traits remained unchanged. This indicates that the mortality-buffering function of ingroup humanization lies in reinforcing the humanness of our social identity, rather than just distancing ourselves from our animal nature. Implications for (de)humanization in intergroup relations are discussed.

A new model for airport passenger segmentation

Recent changes in the aviation industry and in the expectations of travellers have begun to alter the way we approach our understanding, and thus the segmentation, of airport passengers. The key to successful segmentation of any population lies in the selection of the criteria on which the partitions are based. Increasingly, the basic criteria used to segment passengers (purpose of trip and frequency of travel) no longer provide adequate insights into the passenger experience. In this paper, we propose a new model for passenger segmentation based on the passenger core value, time. The results are based on qualitative research conducted in-situ at Brisbane International Terminal during 2012-2013. Based on our research, a relationship between time sensitivity and degree of passenger engagement was identified. This relationship was used as the basis for a new passenger segmentation model, namely: Airport Enthusiast (engaged, non time sensitive); Time Filler (non engaged, non time sensitive); Efficiency Lover (non engaged, time sensitive) and Efficient Enthusiast (engaged, time sensitive). The outcomes of this research extend the theoretical knowledge about passenger experience in the terminal environment. These new insights can ultimately be used to optimise the allocation of space for future terminal planning and design.

Matter and movement: Expression as topological continuity or a return to Butades' wall

This paper aims to address the ways in which drawing can be understood as the becoming-expressive of materials, site, and body, over time. The discussion pivots around a series of studies that replace linear or causal relationships – in history, drawing and expression – with topological movement. My approach is largely through a speculative case study. In a rereading of the familiar Butades myth, I examine how a shadow tracing can variously be taken as the first mimetic art with its origins in the urge to “capture”, and, antithetically, as the originary expressive folding of matter, site and body. The paper is divided into five sections. The first presents the Butades myth, identifying the representational problem that lies at the roots of its traditional telling. The next three sections outline a series of topologies that facilitate a discussion of the Butades myth from historical, disciplinary, and expressive perspectives. The final section aims to show the relevance of this discussion to a contemporary drawing practice, using my own drawing research as a case study. The field of inquiry is that of representational critique. The fold, an image associated with a topological geometry, replaces the relational or signifying disjuncture of representational structures, and suggests a becoming- expressive of subject and object, form and matter.

Two-dimensional hydrogen-bonded polymers in the crystal structures of the ammonium salts of phenoxyacetic acid, (4-fluorophenoxy)acetic acid and (4-chloro-2-methylphenoxy)acetic acid

The structures of the ammonium salts of phenoxyacetic acid, NH4+ C8H6O3- (I), (4-fluorophenoxy)acetic acid NH4+ C8H5FO3- (II) and the herbicidally active (4-chloro-2-methylphenoxy)acetic acid (MCPA), NH4+ C9H8ClO3-. 0.5(H2O) (III) have been determined. All have two-dimensional layered structures based on inter-species ammonium N-H...O hydrogen-bonding associations which give core substructures consisting primarily of conjoined cyclic motifs. Crystals of (I) and (II) are isomorphous with the core comprising R2/1(5), R2/1(4) and centrosymmetric R2/4(8) ring motifs, giving two-dimensional layers lying parallel to (100). In (III), the water molecule of solvation lies on a crystallographic twofold rotation axis and bridges two carboxyl O-atoms in an R4/4(12) hydrogen-bonded motif, creating two R3/4(10) rings which together with a conjoined centrosymmetric R2/4(8) ring incorporating both ammonium cations, generate two-dimensional layers lying parallel to (100). No pi-pi ring associations are present in any of the structures.

The future for genetic studies in reproduction

Genetic factors contribute to risk of many common diseases affecting reproduction and fertility. In recent years, methods for genome-wide association studies(GWAS) have revolutionized gene discovery forcommontraits and diseases. Results of GWAS are documented in the Catalog of Published Genome-Wide Association Studies at the National Human Genome Research Institute and report over 70 publications for 32 traits and diseases associated with reproduction. These include endometriosis, uterine fibroids, age at menarche and age at menopause. Results that pass appropriate stringent levels of significance are generally well replicated in independent studies. Examples of genetic variation affecting twinning rate, infertility, endometriosis and age at menarche demonstrate that the spectrum of disease-related variants for reproductive traits is similar to most other common diseases.GWAS 'hits' provide novel insights into biological pathways and the translational value of these studies lies in discovery of novel gene targets for biomarkers, drug development and greater understanding of environmental factors contributing to disease risk. Results also show that genetic data can help define sub-types of disease and co-morbidity with other traits and diseases. To date, many studies on reproductive traits have used relatively small samples. Future genetic marker studies in large samples with detailed phenotypic and clinical information will yield new insights into disease risk, disease classification and co-morbidity for many diseases associated with reproduction and infertility.